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MGT337-Project Management - 2

Operations Management

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86 views21 pages

MGT337-Project Management - 2

Operations Management

Uploaded by

abid hridoy
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Project Management

Lecture-2
DETERMINISTIC TIME ESTIMATES
The main determinant of the way PERT and CPM networks are
analyzed and interpreted is whether activity time estimates are
probabilistic or deterministic.
If time estimates can be made with a high degree of confidence
that actual times are fairly certain, we say the estimates are
deterministic. If actual times are subject to variation, we say the
estimates are probabilistic.
Probabilistic time estimates must include an indication of the
extent of probable variation.
Slack
Paths that are shorter than the critical path can experience
some delays and still not affect the overall project completion
time as long as the ultimate path time does not exceed the
length of the critical path. The allowable slippage for any path
is called slack, and it reflects the difference between the
length of a given path and the length of the critical path. The
critical path, then, has zero slack time.

3
DETERMINISTIC TIME ESTIMATES

Determine the following.


a. The length of each path
b. The critical path
c. The expected length of the project
d. The amount of slack time for each path
DETERMINISTIC TIME ESTIMATES
A. length of each paths
Path length
1. 1-2-4-5-6 =8+6+3+1 = 18 weeks
2. 1-2-5-6 =8+11+1 = 20 weeks
3. 1-3-5-6 =4+9+1 = 14 weeks

B. Critical Path
1. 1-2-4-5-6=8+6+3+1 =18 weeks
2. 1-2-5-6=8+11+1 =20 weeks
3. 1-3-5-6=4+9+1 =14 weeks

C. The expected length of the project is


equal to the length of the critical path
(i.e., 20 weeks).
DETERMINISTIC TIME ESTIMATES

D. length of each paths

Path length Slack


1. 1-2-4-5-6 =8+6+3+1 =18 weeks 20-18=2
2. 1-2-5-6 =8+11+1 =20 weeks 20-20=0
3. 1-3-5-6 =4+9+1 =14 weeks 20-14=6
Exercise

7
Exercise
The table contains information related to the major activities
of a research project. Use the
information to do the following:
a. Draw a precedence diagram using AOA.
b. Find the critical path.
c. Determine the expected length of the project.

8
Solution

9
Solution

10
Exercise
4 7
4
2 2
1
3 6 9 10
1 2 5 3 2
2

1 3
4 3
8
5

11
4 7
4
Exercise 2 2
1

1 2 3 6 9 10
5 3 2
2

1 3
4 3
8
5

1. 1-2-4-7-9-10 =2+2+4+2+1=11
2. 1-2-3-4-7-9-10 = 2+5+0+4+2+1=14
3. 1-2-3-6-9-10 =2+5+3+2+1=13
4. 1-2-5-6-9-10 =2+4+3+2+1=12
5. 1-2-5-6-8-9-10 =2+4+3+3+0+1=13
6. 1-2-3-6-8-9-10 =2+5+3+3+0+1 =14
7. 1-2-3-5-6-9-10 =2+5+1+3+2+1=14
8. 1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 = 2+5+1+3+3+0+1=15
A COMPUTING ALGORITHM
Planners use an algorithm to develop four pieces of information
about the network activities:
ES, the earliest time activity can start, assuming all preceding
activities start as early as possible.
EF, the earliest time the activity can finish.
LS, the latest time the activity can start and not delay the project.
LF, the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project.

13
RULES FOR THE COMPUTING
ALGORITHM
• For each beginning activity: ES = 0
• For each activity: ES + Activity time = EF
• For the following activity: ES = EF of preceding activity
• Use the largest EF as the LF for all ending activities.
• For each activity: LS = LF – Activity time
• For the preceding activity: LF = LS of following activity

14
Computing Earliest Starting and
Finishing Times

15
Solution

16
Solution

PRESENTATION TITLE 17
Solution

PRESENTATION TITLE 18
Solution

19
Slack
The slack time can be computed in either of two ways:
Slack = LS − ES or Slack = LF − EF

Activity LS ES Slack Activity LF EF Slack


1-2 0 0 0-0=0 1-2 8 8 8-8=0
1-3 6 0 6-0=6 1-3 10 4 10-4=6
2-4 10 8 10-8=2 2-4 16 14 16-14=2
2-5 8 8 8-8=0 2-5 19 19 19-19=0
3-5 10 4 10-4=6 3-5 19 13 19-13=6
4-5 16 14 16-14=2 4-5 19 17 19-17=2
5-6 19 19 19-19=0 5-6 20 20 20-20=0

Critical Path =1-2-5-6=8+11+1=20


Thank you

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