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





Probability Tools
 The common tools used to build probability theory are coins (unbiased), dice, packs of
cards and other familiar items such as balls and beads.
 DIE

 An unbiased die is a perfect cube in which all the faces have the same chance landing on
top. The faces are marked with dots 1 to 6.
 A PACK OF CARDS

A set of cards has 52 cards. 26 cards are black which are 13 spades and 13 clovers. It has
26 red cards which are 13 diamonds and 13 hearts. They are distributed as knights (K),
Queen (Q) , Jacks (J), Ace (A) one heart, one diamond, one clover, one spade.
Example: 1
A card is drawn at random, what is the probability that it is
 A jack
P (J) = =
 A diamond
P (D) = =
 Black
P (B) = = :

 




 PA   number of favourable outcomes 

total number of possible outcomes

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 The probability of heads  PHeads   1 , PTails   1 . 

2 2









 Pred   3  1 
6 2
 Pblue   2  1 
6 3
 Pwhite   1 
6
 Pblack   0  0 
6
 Pnot blue   1  Pblue   1  1  2 
3 3

 


  

 

 



 

 
 

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



    

    
 



 

 

3. In a chicken pen for Mr.Simutowe there are 6 geese and 10 chickens. A bird is picked from the
pen for slaughter after receiving some friends .
What is the probability that it is (a) geese (b) chicken (c) cow (d) bird
Solutions
(a) geese P (geese) = =

(b) chicken P (chicken) = =

(c) cow P (cow) = = 0 since there is no cow in the pen.

(d) bird P (bird) = = 1, since every animal in the pen is a bird.

4. In a certain community, the probability that a person chosen at random is of left handed is .
Find the expected number of left handed people in a sample of 2000 people randomly chosen
from the community.

Solution

Expected number = N x P (A)

=2000 x

= 200

 So the expected number of left handed people in a sample of 2000 is 200.



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 


Exclusive means separated, mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur together











 Pred   3 , Pwhite   1 
6 6
 Pred or white   3  1  4  2 
6 6 6 3
 
 







  

 

 These are event that do not affect one another and could happen together. For
example, if we toss a coin twice then the outcomes of the first does not affect the outcomes of the second
toss.



DAILOFA.J@2019
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








Pred on 1st picking   2 , Pred on 2nd picking   2 
5 5
 Pboth red   2  2  4 
5 5 25












 Pred on 1st picking   2 , Pred on 2nd picking   1 
5 4
 Pboth red without replacing   2  1  1 
5 4 10




 
 
 
 

DAILOFA.J@2019
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 
 , 

 
 
 
 
 
 









(a) 2 R 1 R
5
(b) 4
R R R: Red
2 3 2 3
5 5 5 4 W: White
W W
2 R 2 R
5 4
3 3
5 3 5 W 2
W
5 4
W W
first second first second








DAILOFA.J@2019
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
B: Blue Outcome
2 B BB 
11
R: Red B 4 
11 R BR
5
3 11 
12 G BG
3 B RB 
4 11
R 3
12 11 R RR 
5
11 
G RG
5 B GB
12
3
11

4
11 R GR 
G
4
11
G GG 
first second


 PGG   5  4  5 
12 11 33
 PB and R   PBR   PRB  3  4  4  3  1  1  2 
12 11 12 11 11 11 11

  3  2  4  3  5  4  6  12  20  38  19 
12 11 12 11 12 11 132 132 66

  1  19  47 
66 66


  3  2  3  5  5  3  5  4  6  15  15  20  56  14 
12 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 132 132 33

1 

2 
3 



4 

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

5 






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 

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
 

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

 




 

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

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 
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