INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

Quang Khai Ha, PhD

Faculty of Environmental and Natural Resources
Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT)
Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM)
quangkhai02@hcmut.edu.vn
Introduction
Nội dung chính
 Các khái niệm cơ bản
 phạm vi và xác định vấn đề, mục tiêu, phương pháp mô hình hóa – toán xác định, phương pháp ngẫu nhiên và vật lý; các ứng
dụng của mô hình môi trường.
 Tích hợp các quá trình trong mô hình hóa Quá trình xây dựng mô hình
 Bài toán và Các định luật, lý thuyết và quy trình cơ bản
 Thiết kế khối mô hình
 Các đặc tính mô hình liên quan đến hệ thống môi trường.

 Các quá trình biến đổi – quá trình không phản ứng, quá trình phản ứng

 Mô phỏng quá trình vận chuyển và biến đổi: phản ứng khuấy trộn hoàn toàn, phản ứng dòng hỗn hợp; mô hình cân
bằng vật chất tổng quát
 Mô hình hóa môi trường - ứng dụng:
 Mô hình chất lượng nước: mô hình chất lượng nước mặt – hồ và đập nước, sông suối, cửa sông; mô hình ô nhiễm nước ngầm
 Mô hình hóa chất lượng không khí: mô hình hộp, mô hình chùm tia Gaussian, nguồn điểm, nguồn đường, nguồn khu vực;
những chủ đề đặc biệt; Mô hình phồng Gaussian
Phương pháp đánh giá
Environmental Modelling

“The activity of using mathematical models for simple

descriptions of a Environmental system or Environmental
process to make calculations or predict what might happen”
Environmental system
Challenges in simulation of an environmental system.
 An environmental system is  (i) depend on complex nonlinear interactions of different
included components such as system components.

biological, physical, or chemical,  (ii) climate, topography, soil types or population density are
the main forcing variables that impact on environmental
as well as social and economic, system and they are heterogeneous, varying over time and
that interact with each other as a spatial scales
part of the Earth’s environment.  (iii) components of an environmental system indeed vary
according to both timescales (temporal) and spatial scales
 Problems in environmental (geographic or physical dimensions), which introduces
systems: i.e., global warming, significant challenges in simulation
salinization  (iv) many environmental systems are inaccessible, or their
processes are unobservable, for example groundwater
behavior cannot be observed directly; rather it must be
inferred using sparse measurements.
TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Environmental systems Environmental systems can be divided broadly into

at least three main categories
1. Hydrological,
2. Ecological
3. Climatic
 HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM
 Hydrological systems consist of a number of
individual systems including: surface water
systems; subsurface systems; and coastal
systems.
 Drainage from the surface water system
contributes to recharge of the groundwater
system. Discharge from the groundwater system
contributes to lakes and rivers.
 Water and pollutants from the rivers and from
runoff in coastal areas flow into the sea and
contribute to coastal systems.
 SURFACE WATER SYSTEMS

 Surface water flow (Run off)

 Rainfall Distribution and Seasonal Patterns

 Evaporation

 Landscape Factors (land use, soil type, topography)

 Vegetation (type and density)

 Contaminant and Pollutant Loads

 Subsurface Water Systems
Subsurface water systems, commonly known as groundwater systems, are
a crucial component of the hydrological cycle. Groundwater plays a vital
role in sustaining ecosystems, providing water for agriculture and human
consumption, and maintaining the flow of rivers and lakes.
Role in the Hydrological Cycle:
Recharge
Storage:
Discharge

Aquifers: underground layers of water-bearing rock or sediment.

Permeability and Porosity
Groundwater Flow
Importance of Groundwater (Water supply, irrigation, ecosystem
support)
Issues: Pollution, over extraction, land subsidence….
 Coastal Systems
 The coastal system may be seen as the area in which the
terrestrial environment and the marine environment
interact. These systems are very complex, varying in size
over time, with tidal levels.
 A coastal system may consist of several kilometers of land
inwards from the beach, out to a width of sea just beyond
the breaking waves.
 The coastal system is affected by climatic influences such
as storms as well as by human influence, in terms of
human constructions.
 Tidal influences also effect the beach environment and the
amount of erosion that has taken place. The width of
beach, and the amount of sand erosion that has taken place,
will depend not only on recent storms but also on human
built structures that impede or expedite erosion.
 Ecological Systems

 Ecological systems, also known as ecosystems,

are communities of living organisms (plants,
animals, and microorganisms) interacting with
each other and their physical environment (soil,
water, air, minerals) in a given area. These
interactions create a dynamic, complex web of
relationships that sustain life and contribute to
the functioning of the Earth's biosphere
 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

 Agricultural systems, encompassing human-developed

methods of crop production and animal grazing, have a
profound impact on the environment. The extent of this
impact is influenced by several factors:
 Type of Crop or Animal:
 Management Practices:
 Environmental Impact:

 Understanding these dynamics is critical for developing

agricultural practices that balance productivity with
environmental stewardship, ensuring that agriculture
can meet human needs without compromising the
health of our ecosystems.
WHY ARE MODELS USED?

 Understanding Complex Systems;

 interacting components, such as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. To simplify and represent these
interactions, making it easier to study and understand.
 Models can illustrate the dynamic processes within ecosystems, such as nutrient cycling, energy flow, and population
dynamics, helping researchers to understand the fundamental mechanisms that sustain life on Earth
 Predicting Environmental Changes
 Supporting Decision-Making
 Testing Hypotheses
 Educational and Communication Tools
 Optimizing Environmental Management
 Long-Term Monitoring and Adaptation
Model types

 Three main types of models are used to model environmental systems:

 empirical,
 conceptual and
 process-based models.
Conceptual models
 tie together many ideas to explain a phenomenon or event. It is representations of a system, made of the composition
of concepts which are used to help people know and understand a subject that the model represents.
 A conceptual model’s primary objective is to convey the fundamental principles and basic functionality of the system
which it represents.
 A conceptual model, when implemented properly, should satisfy its fundamental objectives. The conceptual model
plays an important role in the overall system development life cycle. Conceptual models
Mathematical Model

 Mathematical models are perhaps the most abstract of the four

classifications.
 These models do not look like their real-life counterparts at
all.
 Mathematical models are built using numbers and symbols
that can be transformed into functions, equations, and
formulas.
 Mathematical Modeling is the process of using various
mathematical structures - graphs, equations, diagrams, scatter
plots, tree diagrams, etc., to represent real situations.
Mathematical Model

 A mathematical model can be used for a number of different reasons:

 Developing scientific understanding - through quantitative expression of current
knowledge of a system
 Supports in examining the effect of changes in a system
 Aids in decision making
TYPES OF COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

The types of computational 1. Empirical vs. Mechanistic models

models are determined by the 2. Deterministic vs. Probabilistic models
available data, the intended use, 3. Dynamic vs. Static models
and the interpretation of model 4. Generic equations by model type
5. Other relevant modeling terms
generated results.
Empirical models Mechanistic models

Include very little information explicitly include the

on the underlying mechanisms or processes
mechanisms and rely upon between the state variables ;
the observed relationships unlike empirical models. The
among experimental data. parameters in mechanistic
These can be though as ‘best- models should be supported
fit’ models whose parameters by data and have real-world
may or may not have real- interpretations
world interpretation.
Probabilistic models Deterministic models
– utilize the entire range of input data to develop a – provide a solution for the state variable(s) rather
probability distribution of model output (i.e. than a set of probabilistic outcomes. This type of
exposure or risk) rather than a single point value. model does not explicitly simulate the effects of
Probabilistic models are sometimes referred to as data uncertainty or variability .
statistical or stochastic models.
Changes in model outputs are solely due to
Probabilistic models can be used to evaluate the changes in model components, the boundary
impact of variability and uncertainty in the various conditions, or initial conditions.
input parameters, such as environmental exposure
levels, fate and transport processes, etc. Therefore, repeated simulations under constant
conditions will result in consistent results.
Dynamic models Static models

make predictions about the way a system changes make predictions about the way a system changes
with time or space. Solutions are obtained by taking as the value of an independent variable changes.
incremental steps through the model domain. For
most situations, where a differential equation is
being approximated, the simulation model will use a
finite time step (or spatial step) to estimate changes
in state variables over time (or space).
 Chemical Fate and Transport Models

 This type of empirical modeling can be conducted to determine

the fate, residence time and transformation rates of a particular
chemical, such as DDT
 In other words, the model helps answer the questions:
 Where will the chemical go?
 What species will be affected, and how?
 How long will the chemical stay in the environment?

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 Environmental Inputs to Fate and Transport Models

Examples of data requirements of a fate and transport

model necessary to characterize an ecosystem include:
 Total surface area
 Percent water cover by area
 Average sediment depth
 Length of coastline
 Resident fish species
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 Chemical Inputs to Fate and Transport Models

Examples of chemical characteristics necessary to model potential

contaminants include:
 Water solubility of the chemical
 Reaction half-lives in water, soil, sediment
 Vapour pressure
 Molecular mass

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 Chemical Fate and Transport Model Outputs

Fate and transport models can produce

the following information:
 Chemical residence times
 Concentrations in various environmental media
 Transfer and transformation rates
 Chemical partitioning behavior
 Summary diagram
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 Industrial effluent Example

 Potential impacts of an industrial discharge to an aquatic receiving

environment can be modeled to predict exposure concentrations, identify
major transport mechanisms, and estimate persistence of a particular
contaminant

 The model requires:

 a description of the evaluative environment (i.e., how much water, how
much air?)
 information about the properties of the contaminant being modeled

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 The Evaluative Environment
For the purposes of modeling, the environment can be thought of as a number of
compartments, all interacting with one another, depending on their location and
properties
 air
 suspended particles
 aerosols
 fish and aquatic life
 water
 soil
 sediments

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 Behavior of Contaminants

Many chemical properties measure the ability of a

contaminant to transfer from one compartment to
another, and are referred to as partition coefficients

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 Chemical Properties

 Vapour pressure: the tendency of a chemical to partition into the

atmosphere from a liquid form
 Water solubility: the tendency of a chemical to partition into water from a
solid form
 Henry’s Law Constant: the tendency for a chemical that is dissolved in
water to transfer into the air

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 Chemical Properties (Cont’d)

Water-octanol coefficient (Kow): the tendency for a chemical to

partition into the lipid (i.e., fat) portion of an organism
 perhaps the most important property for describing the fate and
movement of a chemical in the environment
 a chemical with a high Kow is referred to as ‘hydrophobic’, or water
hating, and binds readily to lipid tissue in aquatic organisms

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 Mass-Balance Modeling

Mass-balance models are commonly used to predict the fate

and behavior of contaminants in the environment
 based on the idea that the entire mass of the contaminant in a
discharge must equal the amount of contaminant that eventually
ends up in different parts of the environment

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 Level I Model

Assumptions of the model

 contaminant release is a one-time only event
 chemicals do not react or degrade over time
 the distribution of the chemical is in equilibrium (i.e., a great
deal of time has passed to allow the chemical to fully partition
into the various environmental compartments)

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 Level II Model
 More complex than the Level I Model
 More realistic then the Level I Model
 Assumptions of the model
 contaminant input and output rates are equal
 chemical is at equilibrium (i.e., fully partitioned)
 allows for a chemical to leave through advective transport (large-
scale transport of the chemical in a river, or in wind current)

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 Level III Model

 More representative of site conditions

 user can specify which compartment is getting the chemical input
 transport rates are included: sedimentation, water flow, soil run-off
 model can calculate the chemical’s persistence and residence time
 provides a more realistic description of the contaminant’s
environmental fate

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 Advantages of Environmental Modeling

 A good model can reveal more about a ecosystem processes

and responses than we might otherwise learn through
conventional (i.e., limited number) sampling techniques
 Modeling can predict how a ecosystem might behave before
any disturbance occurs
 Modeling can be used to simulate different mitigative
measures to minimize potential impacts from development
activities

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 Limitations of Environmental Modeling
 A model is not a substitute for actual Notes
monitoring and assessment of  Models can serve as powerful
ecosystems at risk from development tools in understanding ecosystems
activities and potential impacts from
development activities
 Models are only as good as the
information they contain  The complexity of ecosystems
and often limited knowledge of
 A model often makes assumptions about natural processes necessitates a
high degree of simplification in
the natural environment that cannot be model development
validated; this inherent uncertainty must
be acknowledged when evaluating a  Users of model outputs must be
model’s conclusions aware of the model’s limitations!

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