Project Management • Sort out what activities must be done one

after another, and which can be done at the

• An interrelated set of activities with definite
same time, if required
starting and ending points, which results in a
unique outcome for a specific allocation of • Represent these in a network diagram
resources.
The Project Network - CPM/PERT
Steps in planning projects – Activity-on-Arc (AOA) Network A branch
reflects an activity of a project.
1. Define work breakdown structure (statement
of all work that has to be completed) ■ A node represents the beginning and end of
activities, referred to as events.
2. Diagram the network
■ Branches in the network indicate precedence
3. Develop the schedule
relationships.
4. Analyze cost-time trade-off
■ When an activity is completed at a node, it
5. Assert risks has been realized.
NETWORK ANALYSIS
• It is a technique for planning and controlling
large projects, such as construction work,
R&D projects, computerization of systems
etc. Its primary aim is to program and
monitor the progress of a project so that the
project is completed in the minimum time.
In doing this, it pinpoints the parts of the
project which are “crucial”.It can also be
used in allocating resources such as labour
and equipment and thus helps to make the
total cost of a project minimum.
CPM AND PERT
• Network analysis is operated in various
forms under different titles, which include:
 Critical Path Analysis (CPA) or
Critical Path Method (CPM);
The Project Network Concurrent Activities
(Deterministic)
■ Activities can occur at the same time
 Project Evaluation and Review Technique (concurrently).
(PERT) (Probabilistic)
■ Network aids in planning and scheduling.
Drawing the network diagram
■ Time duration of activities shown on
• Estimate the time needed to complete each branches.
individual activity or task that makes up a
part of the project
Figure: Concurrent activities for house-
building project
The Project Network Dummy Activities Figure: AON network

■ A dummy activity shows a precedence AON Network for House Building Project using
relationship but reflects no passage of time. QM for Windows

■ Two or more activities cannot share the See Slide

same start and end nodes.

Figure: A dummy activity

The Project Network
AON Network for House Building Project
Activity-on-Node (AON) Network
 A node represents an activity, with its label
and time shown on
the node
 The branches show the precedence
relationships

The Project Network Activity Start Times

 ■ EF is the earliest start time plus the activity
time: EF  ES  t

Figure: Activity start time

The Project Network
Activity Scheduling in Activity-on-Node
Configuration

Figure: Activity-on-node configuration

The Project Network
Activity Slack Times for House Building Project
Activity Scheduling : Earliest Times
using QM for Windows
ES is the earliest time an activity can start:
See slide
ES  Maximum{EF immediate predecessors}
The Project Network
Activity Slack Time (2 of 2)

Figure: Earliest activity start and finish times

Figure: Activity slack D
2

B E G
4 1 3

Start A F H J Finish
2 8 5 7

C I
5 4

Determine the critical path and the project duration.

Example 2 - Solution

Problem 2 - Critical Path and Project Duration

Problem 3 – Consider the following project

network.
 personnel, are introduced to the new system
(activity 7). Once the system is developed (activity
2), it is tested manually to make sure that it is
logical (activity 5). Following activity 1, the new
equipment is tested, and any necessary
modifications are made (activity 4), and the newly
trained personnel begin training on the
computerized system (activity 8). Also, node 9
begins the testing of the system on the computer to
check for errors (activity 9). The final activities
include a trial run and changeover to the system
(activity 11) and final debugging of the computer
Probabilistic Activity Times system (activity 10).
Another Example
To demonstrate the use of probabilistic activity
times, we will employ a new example. (We could
use the house-building network from the previous
section; however, a network that is a little larger
and more
complex will provide more experience with
different types of projects.)
The Southern Textile Company has decided to
install a new computerized order processing system
that will link the company with customers and
suppliers online. In the past, orders for the cloth the
company produces were processed manually,
which contributed to delays in delivering orders
and resulted in lost sales. The company wants to
know how long it will take to install the new
system.
We will briefly describe the activities and the
network for the installation of the new order
processing system.
The Southern Textile Company – Activities
The network begins with three concurrent
activities: The new computer equipment is installed
(activity 1); the computerized order processing
system is developed (activity 2); and people are The Southern Textile Company Probabilistic
recruited to operate the system (activity 3). Once Activity Times –
people are hired, they are trained for the job QM for Windows Output
(activity 6), and other personnel in the company,
such as marketing, accounting, and production See Slide
Probabilistic Activity Times
The Southern Textile Company

Network for order processing system installation

Probability Analysis of a Project Network
The Southern Textile Company Network – QM for
■ Using the normal distribution, probabilities
Windows Output
are determined by computing the number of
standard deviations (Z) a value is from the
mean.
■ The Z value is used to find the
corresponding probability.
Probability Analysis of a Project Network
The Southern Textile Company

Probabilistic Activity Times

The Southern Textile Company

Normal distribution of network duration

Earliest and latest activity times

Probability that the network will be completed in
30 weeks or less

Solved Problem 2
What is the probability of completing the project in
23 weeks?

Probability the network will be completed in

22 weeks or less
■ A customer will trade elsewhere if the new
ordering system is not working within 22
weeks. What is the probability that she will
be retained?
Z = (22 - 25)/2.63 = -1.14
■ Z value of 1.14 (ignore negative)
corresponds to probability of .3729 in Z
Table.
■ Probability that customer will be retained is
.1271 (.5000-.3729)
■ CPM/PERT Analysis Output with
QM for Windows
  With defined precedent relationships
 With a specific time period for
completion
 Examples?
 A major event like a wedding
Using the Normal Distribution, we find that the
probability of completing the project in 23 weeks  Any construction project
or less is 0.9357.  Designing a political campaign
Project Life Cycle
 Conception: identify the need
 Feasibility analysis or study: costs
Chapter 16 – Project benefits, and risks
Management  Planning: who, how long, what to do?
Operations Management  Execution: doing the project
by  Termination: ending the project
R. Dan Reid & Nada R. Sanders Network Planning Techniques
4th Edition © Wiley 2010
 Program Evaluation & Review Technique
 Learning Objectives (PERT):
 Describe project management objectives  Developed to manage the Polaris
missile project
 Describe the project life cycle
 Many tasks pushed the boundaries of
 Diagram networks of project activities
science & engineering (tasks’
 Estimate the completion time of a project duration = probabilistic)
 Compute the probability of completing a  Critical Path Method (CPM):
project by a specific time
 Developed to coordinate maintenance
 Determine how to reduce the length of a projects in the chemical industry
project effectively  A complex undertaking, but
 Describe the critical chain approach to individual tasks are routine (tasks’
project management duration = deterministic)
Project Management Applications Both PERT and CPM
 What is a project?  Graphically display the precedence
relationships & sequence of activities
 Any unique endeavor with specific
objectives  Estimate the project’s duration
 With multiple activities  Identify critical activities that cannot be
delayed without delaying the project
  Estimate the amount of slack associated with
non-critical activities
Network Diagrams
 Activity-on-Node (AON):
 Uses nodes to represent the activity
Step 3 (a) (Con’t): Calculate the Project
 Uses arrows to represent
Completion Times
precedence relationships
Paths Path duration
ABDEGHJK 40
ABDEGIJK 41
ACFGHJK 22
ACFGIJK 23
 The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the
project’s duration (project cannot finish in
less time than its longest path)
Step 1-Define the Project: Cables By Us is
bringing a new product on line to be manufactured  ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path
in their current facility in existing space. The Some Network Definitions
owners have identified 11 activities and their
 All activities on the critical path have zero
precedence relationships. Develop an AON for the
project. slack

Immediate Duration  Slack defines how long non-critical

Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks) activities can be delayed without delaying
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
the project
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6  Slack = the activity’s late finish minus its
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14 early finish (or its late start minus its early
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
start)
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3  Earliest Start (ES) = the earliest finish of the
J Write documentation report H&I 4 immediately preceding activity
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
 Earliest Finish (EF) = is the ES plus the
Step 2- Diagram the Network for activity time
Cables By Us
 Latest Start (LS) and Latest Finish (LF) =
the latest an activity can start (LS) or finish
(LF) without delaying the project
completion

Step 3 (a)- Add Deterministic Time Estimates

and Connected Paths
ES, EF Network Using Beta Probability Distribution to Calculate
Expected Time Durations
 A typical beta distribution is shown
below, note that it has definite end points
 The expected time for finishing each
activity is a weighted average

LS, LF Network

optimistic  4most likely   pessimisti c

Exp. time 
6
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected
Activity
time time time time
A 2 4 6 4
B 3 7 10 6.83
C 2 3 5 3.17
D 4 7 9 6.83
E 12 16 20 16
F 2 5 8 5
G 2 2 2 2
H 2 3 4 3
Calculating Slack I 2 3 5 3.17
J 2 4 6 4
Late Early Slack K 2 2 2 2
Activity
Finish Finish (weeks)
A 4 4 0 Network Diagram with Expected Activity Times
B 10 10 0
C 25 7 18
D 16 16 0
E 30 30 0
F 30 12 18
G 32 32 0
H 35 34 1
I 35 35 0
J 39 39 0
K 41 41 0

Revisiting Cables By Us Using Probabilistic Time

Estimates
Estimated Path Durations through the Network
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity Description
time time time
A Develop product specifications 2 4 6 Activities on paths Expected duration
B Design manufacturing process 3 7 10 ABDEGHJK 44.66
C Source & purchase materials 2 3 5
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment 4 7 9 ABDEGIJK 44.83
E Receive & install tooling & equipment 12 16 20
F Receive materials 2 5 8
ACFGHJK 23.17
G Pilot production run 2 2 2 ACFGIJK 23.34
H Evaluate product design 2 3 4
I Evaluate process performance 2 3 5
J Write documentation report 2 4 6
K Transition to manufacturing 2 2 2
  ABDEGIJK is the expected critical path &  po
2

the project has an expected duration of 44.83 σ2   

 6 
weeks
 where p=pessimistic activity time
Adding ES and EF to Network estimate
o=optimistic activity time estimate

See slide
Adding LS and LF to Network

Calculating the Probability of Completing the

See slide Project in Less Than a Specified Time

Estimating the Probability of Completion Dates  When you know:

 Using probabilistic time estimates offers the  The expected completion time
advantage of predicting the probability of  Its variance
project completion dates
 You can calculate the probability of
 We have already calculated the expected completing the project in “X” weeks with
time for each activity by making three time the following formula:
estimates
specified time  path expected time  DT  EFP 
z  
 Now we need to calculate the variance for path standard time  σP 2 
each activity
Where DT = the specified completion date
 The variance of the beta probability
distribution is: EFPath = the expected completion time of
the path
σPath2  variance of path

Example: Calculating the probability of finishing

the project in 48 weeks
 Use the z values in Appendix B to determine
probabilities
 e.g. probability for path 1 is
 48 weeks  44.66 weeks 
z   1.52
 4.82 

Crashing Example: Suppose the Cables By Us

project manager wants to reduce the new product
project from 41 to 36 weeks.
 Crashing Costs are considered to be
Reducing Project Completion Time linear
 Project completion times may need to be  Look to crash activities on the critical
shortened because: path
 Different deadlines  Crash the least expensive activities on the
 Penalty clauses critical path first (based on cost per week)

 Need to put resources on a new Crash activity I from 3 weeks to 2 weeks $1000
project Crash activity J from 4 weeks to 2 weeks $2400
 Promised completion dates Crash activity D from 6 weeks to 4 weeks $4000
 Reduced project completion time is Recommend Crash Cost $7400
“crashing”
 Question: Will crashing 5 weeks return
 Crashing a project needs to balance more in benefits than it costs?
 Shorten a project duration Crashed Network Diagram
 Cost to shorten the project duration
 Crashing a project requires you to know
 Crash time of each activity
 Crash cost of each activity
Crash cost/duration = (crash cost-normal
cost)/(normal time – crash time)
 time and cost of a project. The project
manager reviews this information to ensure
that adequate resources exist and that the
expected completion time is reasonable.
Project Management OM Across the Organization
 Accounting uses project management (PM)
information to provide a time line for major
expenditures
 Marketing use PM information to monitor
the progress to provide updates to the
customer

Adding Feeder Buffers to Critical Chains  Information systems develop and maintain
software that supports projects
 The theory of constraints, the basis for
critical chains, focuses on keeping  Operations use PM to information to
bottlenecks busy. monitor activity progress both on and off
critical path to manage resource
 Time buffers can be put between requirements
bottlenecks in the critical path
Chapter 16 Highlights
 These feeder buffers protect the critical
path from delays in non-critical paths  A project is a unique, one time event of
some duration that consumes resources and
is designed to achieve an objective in a
given time period.
 Each project goes through a five-phase life
cycle: concept, feasibility study, planning,
execution, and termination.
 Two network planning techniques are PERT
and CPM. Pert uses probabilistic time
estimates. CPM uses deterministic time
estimates.
Project Management within OM: How it all fits
together  Pert and CPM determine the critical path of
the project and the estimated completion
 Project management techniques provide a
time. On large projects, software programs
structure for the project manager to track the
are available to identify the critical path.
progress of different activities required to
complete the project. Particular concern is  Pert uses probabilistic time estimates to
given to critical path (the longest connected determine the probability that a project will
path through the project network) activities. be done by a specific time.
 Any delay to a critical path activity affects  To reduce the length of the project
the project completion time. These (crashing), we need to know the critical path
techniques indicate the expected completion of the project and the cost of reducing
 individual activity times. Crashing activities
that are not on the critical path typically do
not reduce project completion time.
 The critical chain approach removes excess
safety time from individual activities and
creates a project buffer at the end of the
critical path.

NEW The project network for building a house

Project Crashing and
Time-Cost Trade-Off Overview
■ Project duration can be reduced by
assigning more resources to project
activities.
■ However, doing this increases project cost.
■ Decision is based on analysis of trade-off
between time and cost.
■ Project crashing is a method for shortening
Normal activity and crash data for the network
project duration by reducing one or more
critical activities to a time less than normal
activity time.

Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off

Example Problem
Network with normal activity times and weekly The time-cost trade-off
crashing costs Example
Sharon Lowe, Vice President for Marketing for the
Electronic Toys Company, is about to begin a
As activities are crashed, the critical path
project to design an advertising campaign for a new
may change and several paths may become
line of toys. She wants the project completed
critical.
within 47 days in time to launch the advertising
Revised network with activity 1 crashed campaign at the beginning of the Christmas season.
Sharon has identified the six activities (labeled A,
B, …, F) needed to execute this project.
Considering the order in which these activities need
to occur, she also has constructed the following
project network.

A C E F

START F IN IS H

See slide
B D
Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off
General Relationship of Time and Cost
■ Project crashing costs and indirect costs
have an inverse relationship.
■ Crashing costs are highest when the project
is shortened.
■ Indirect costs increase as the project
duration increases.
■ The optimal project time is at the minimum
point on the total cost curve.
 NEW

PERT/CPM
Key Terms
Critical Path: The longest time path through the
task network. The series of tasks (or even a single
task) that dictates the calculated finish date of the
project (That is, when the last task in the critical path
is completed, the project is completed) The
"longest" path (in terms of time) to the completion
of a project. If shortened, it would shorten the time
it takes to complete the project. Activities off the
critical path would not affect completion time even
if they were done more quickly.
Slack Time
The amount of time a task can be delayed before the
project finish date is delayed. Total slack can be
positive or negative. If total slack is a positive it
indicates the amount of time that the task can be
delayed without delaying the project finish date. If
negative, it indicates the amount of time that must
be saved so that the project finish date is not delayed.
Total Slack = Latest Start - Earliest Start. By default
and by definition, a task with 0 slack is considered a
critical task. If a critical task is delayed, the project
finish date is also delayed. (Also known as float
time)
Crashing
Shifting resources to reduce slack time so the critical
path is as short as possible. Always raises project
costs and is typically disruptive – a project should be
crashed with caution.
Combining both the results, the total crashing cost Gantt Chart: A bar chart. While visually
for the optimal way of meeting the deadline of 47 appealing on a task/duration basis, it is
days is $30,000 + $45,000 = $75,000. limited because it does not show task or
resource relationships well. Strength: easy to
maintain and read.
  Network Diagram: A wire diagram, Also Milestone
known as a PERT network diagram. A
A significant task which represents a key
diagram that shows tasks and their
accomplishment within the project. Typically
relationships. Limited because it shows only
requires special attention and control.
task relationships. Strength: easy to read task
relationships. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
Sample Gantt Chart  A detailed, hierarchical (from general to
specific) tree structure of deliverables and
tasks that need to be performed to complete a
project.
 Purpose: to identify actual tasks to be done in
a project. Serves as basis for project planning.
 An extension to PERT.
 Identify the major task categories
Dependencies
 Identify sub-tasks, and sub-sub-tasks
Links between project tasks. There are 3 types of
 Use verb-noun to imply action to something
dependencies:
 Example: Getting up in the morning
 Causal, where 1 task must be
completed before another can begin  Hit snooze button
(have to bake bread before you can
 Hit snooze button again
make a sandwich)
 Get outa bed
critical path schedules are based only on causal
dependencies  Avoid dog
 Resource, where a task is limited by  Go to bathroom…
availability of resources (more bread
can be baked by 2 bakers, but only 1 is
available) Create WBS
 Discretionary, optional task sequence  Decomposition of project deliverables and
preferences that, though not required, activities into smaller, more manageable
may reflect organizational preferences parts
Dummy activity  The lowest level in WBS is a Work Package
based on Statement Of Work (SOW)
An imaginary activity with no duration, used to
show either an indirect relationship between 2 tasks  Needs to be S.M.A.R.T (Specific,
or to clarify the identities of the tasks . In CPM, each Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, Timely)
activity must be uniquely defined by its beginning
and ending point. When two activities begin and end
at the same time, a dummy activity (an activity
which begins and ends at the same time) is inserted
into the model to distinguish the two activities.
  Resources may be shifted to meet
need
 Cost and time share a direct
relationship (Cost of each activity is
evenly spread over time)
 Time, of itself, has no value
 These assumptions make PM controversial
THE PM Concept Assumption
A Critical Path Exists
 A small set of activities, which make up the
Picture see slide longest path through the activity network
control the entire project.
WBS Dictionary
 If these "critical" activities could be
 A companion document to the WBS identified & assigned to responsible persons,
 May have detailed content of the components management resources could be optimally
contained in a WBS, including work used by concentrating on the few activities
packages and control accounts which determine the fate of the entire project.

 For each WBS component, the WBS  Others can be re-planned, rescheduled &
dictionary includes a code of account resources for them can be reallocated,
identifier, a statement of work, responsible without affecting the project.
organization, and a list of schedule Standardized PM Tools
milestones
 1917: Henry Gantt introduced standardized
 Can include a list of associated schedule PM tools
activities, resources required, and an estimate
of cost  Gantt Chart – visual tracking
of tasks and resources
 Each WBS component is cross-referenced, as
appropriate, to other WBS components  Depiction of relationships
between tasks
Project Management Assumptions
 Depiction of constraints
 PM makes several key assumptions between tasks
 All tasks have distinct begin and end  First Widespread acceptance
points of a single technique
 All estimates can be mathematically  Created out of need and frustration as
derived industrialization became ever more complex
 Tasks must be able to be arranged in a PERT & CPM
defined sequence that produces a pre-
defined result  PERT (Program Evaluation and Review
Technique) – introduced by US military
(Navy) in 1958
  US Navy : control costs &
schedules for Polaris
Submarine construction
 CPM (Critical Path Method) – introduced by
US industry in 1958 (DuPont Corporation
and Remington-Rand)
 Industry: control costs and
schedules in manufacturing
 Common weakness to both: ignores
most dependencies
 Considers only completion of a
preceding required task
 Both rely on a logical sequence of tasks
 Organized visually (Charts), tabular or
simple lists
 An Example of a Logical Sequence
Making a simple list of tasksPlanting trees
with flowers and edging around them –
tasks required to complete this project:
1. Mark utilities, 2. Dig Holes, 3. Buy trees, 4.
Buy flowers, 5. Plant trees, 6. Plant flowers, 7.
Buy edging, 8. Install edging
Variation in Networks
 This list does not reflect time or money
 Standards such as BS 6046
 This list does not reflect task relationships
 Activity on Arrow
 This list is a simple sequence of logical
events  Activity on Node
 This list does not provide an easy project 7

“snapshot” 3

 Hard to see conflicts

START

END

1 2 5 6 8

4
  MEMORY TRIGGER: if the float of the
activity is zero, the two starts (ES and LS)
and the two finish (EF and LF) are the same.
Hence, If float of activity is zero, ES = LS
and EF = LF.
PM Today – Necessary?
 Frustration with cost & schedule overruns
 Frustration with reliability of production
estimates
 Management challenges exist today:
 Only 44% of projects are completed
on time
 On average, projects are 189% over-
budget
 70% of completed projects do not
perform as expected
 30% of projects are canceled before
completion
 On average, projects are 222% longer
than expected
 PM has been shown to improve this
3 .5 3.5 3 .5 3.5
3 Buy Trees 7 Buy Edging performance
LS Slack LF LS Slack LF

These statistics were compiled by an independent

0 3 3 3 2 5 5 2 7 7 1 8 8 1 9
monitoring group, The Standish Group, and
2 Dig Holes 5 Plant Trees 6 Plant Flowers 8 Install Edging
1 Mark Utilities
0 0 3 3 0 5 5 0 7 7 0 8 8 0 9
represent the US national average for 1998
PERT/CPM CALCULATIONS
3 .5 3.5
4 Buy Flowers Basic Techniques
LS Slack LF

PERT Calculations
Forward and Backward Pass
 Step 1: Define tasks
 Forward pass is a technique to move forward
through a diagram to calculate activity  Step 2: Place Tasks in a logical order, find the
duration. Backward pass is its opposite. critical path

 Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) use  The longest time path through the task
the forward pass technique. network. The series of tasks (or even a
single task) that dictates the calculated
 Late Start (LS) and Late Finish(LF) use the finish date
backward pass technique.
 Step 3: Generate estimates
  Optimistic, pessimistic, likely and  As a general rule, the higher the
PERT- expected standard deviation the greater
the amount of uncertainty
 Standard Deviation and variance
 Variance (V) reflects the spread of a
 Step 4: Determine earliest and latest dates
value over a normal distribution
 Step 5:Determine probability of meeting
 V=SD2 (Standard deviation
expected date
squared)
 Steps 1 and 2 are logic and legwork, not
 When doing manual PERT Calculations it is
calculation – these require a clear goal
helpful to construct a table to stay organized
PERT Calculations – Step 3
 Consider the sample project– planting trees
 Assuming steps 1 and 2 have been completed and flowers, set up using a list
begin calculations – use a table to organize
 Rough estimates and no risk analysis
your calculations
 No Range, simply rough
 Simple calculations to estimate project
estimates - unreliable?
durations
 PERT Analysis will better refine
 Based on input of 3 estimated durations per
estimates
task
 Start by setting up a table to organize data
 Most Optimistic (TO) – best case
scenario
 Most Likely (TL) “normal” scenario
 Most Pessimistic (TP) Worst case
scenario
 Formula derives a probability-based
expected duration (TE)
 (TO x 1 + TL x 4 + TP x 1) / 6 =
TE
 Read this formula as the sum of
(optimistic x 1 + likely x 4 +
pessimistic x 1) divided by 6 =
expected task duration
 Complete this calculation for all tasks
 Standard deviation and variance
 Standard deviation (SD) is the average
deviation from the estimated time
 SD=(TP-T0)/6 {read as
(pessimistic-optimistic)/6}
  Denote the sum of all expected
durations on the critical path as S
 Denote the sum of all variances on the
critical path as V
 Select a desired completion time,
denote this as D
 COMPUTE: (D-S)/square root (V)
= Z ( the number of std. deviations that
the due date is away from the expected
date))
 Enter a standard normal table to find a
probability that corresponds with Z

 1 
z
1
PZ  z   exp(  Z 2  dZ
 2  2 
 For our project, figure a probability based on
the most likely time, 15 days: (15-
15.51)/square root(2.53) = (15-15.51)/1.59=-
.3207 (Z)
 A corresponding probability is 37.7%
(Rounded)
 This process can be repeated for any date
desired
Computing probability in Excel using data compiled
in your table
 Microsoft Excel has normal distribution
functions built in and can compute PERT
probabilities
 By creating a table as a spreadsheet, the
addition of a few simple formulae will do the
rest of the work
 Create a table as a template that can be used
over and over again – simply change the input
PERT Step 5 – Probabilities
Manually computing probability using data
compiled in your table
 Determine probability of meeting a date by
using the table data