KEY HAZARD FACTS

Earthquakes have a great potential to cause damage to buildings, the environment,

and people’s well-being.
Earthquake hazard, also called seismic hazard, describes what level of ground
shaking at the earth’s surface is expected due to potential future earthquakes. The
types of hazards caused by earthquakes depend on the strength of ground shaking
and how the earthquake deforms the earth around it. The properties of the rock and
sediment that the earthquake waves travel through also determine what hazards
may occur. A large earthquake will always be followed by a sequence of aftershocks,
which may cause additional hazards.

1. Fault, Active Fault, and Ground Rupture

Faults are fractures on the Earth’s crust where blocks of rocks move relative to one
another. It can be small and localized or hundreds of kilometers long.

Active faults are faults that moved within the last 10,000 years and will move again in
the future.

Potentially active faults are faults that have evidence of deformation, but their activity
within the last 10,000 years is unclear. However, the possibility of future movement
along these types of faults should not be discounted. Potentially active faults may be
reclassified into active faults when additional information becomes available.
There are three main types of fault movement:

 Normal faults are fractures in which the hanging wall has moved
downward relative to the footwall. Normal faults occur when two blocks of
rock are pulled apart by tension.
 Reverse faults are fractures where the hanging wall has moved upward
relative to the footwall. Reverse faults occur when two blocks of rock are
forced together by compression.
 Strike-slip faults are fractures where the ground moves horizontally past
each other. Left-lateral strike-strip faults are where the ground on the other
side of the fault moves horizontally to the left while right-lateral strike-strip
faults are where the ground on the other side of the fault moves
horizontally to the right.

Ground rupture is the hazard associated with active faults. It refers to the
displacement of the Earth's surface along active faults resulting in visible fracturing
or cracking of the ground.
2. Ground Shaking
Ground shaking is the up and down and/or sideways motion of the earth’s surface
caused by the propagation of seismic waves from an earthquake.

The energy released by an earthquake is measured by Magnitude while the severity

of an earthquake’s effect on people, structures, and the natural environment is
measured by Intensity.

Generally, ground shaking is stronger nearer the epicenter of the earthquake and
decreases in intensity farther away.

Intensity can be assessed using different scales. In the Philippines, ground shaking
is measured by the PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS).

Strong ground-shaking impacts are widespread. It can cause building damage and
collapse. Collapsed structures, falling, and toppled objects can lead to injuries and
death. Fires can also happen when gas tanks, fuel pipelines, and electrical wires are
damaged or flammable liquids spilled.

Strong ground shaking can trigger landslides in mountainous areas and liquefaction
in low-lying areas. In areas underlain by limestone, strong ground shaking can also
cause sinkholes to collapse.
Ground shaking will vary over an area due to the ground conditions (i.e. soil type and
depth, strength, and structure of rock) in a given location and the location and
orientation of the earthquake fault rupture. These all affect the way the seismic waves
travel through the ground.

3. Tsunami
A tsunami is a series of waves caused by various geologic phenomena including
undersea earthquakes, submarine landslides, meteor impacts, and volcanic
eruptions.

Two types of tsunamis can affect the Philippines based on the sources:

1. Local tsunamis are generated by tsunamigenic events within the Philippine

Region, typically within a hundred kilometers. Typical sources of local
tsunamis are movement of offshore active faults and subduction zones
surrounding the Philippines, local submarine landslides, and subaerial
pyroclastic flows.

Local tsunamis can reach the shoreline within 2 to 5 minutes. All coastal areas in the
Philippines can be affected by local tsunamis.
 2. Far-field or distant tsunamis are those that were generated from sources in
other regions surrounding the Pacific Ocean or the Celebes Sea. Far-field
tsunamis can travel from 1 to 24 hours before reaching the coast of the
Philippines.

Department of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical

Astronomical Services Administration, Philippine Institute of Volcanology, Office of
Civil Defense, Mines and Geo-Sciences Bureau, and National Mapping and
Resource Information Authority, assessed as in danger of tsunami are Bancal
Pugad, Bancal Sinubli and Sta. Teresita 2nd in Lubao; Mabuanbuan, Sebitanan,
Malusac, Batang 1st and 2nd in Sasmuan; San Esteban, Dalayap, and Sua in
Macabebe; and Nigui, Bulacus, San Pedro, Malauli, Balibago, and Sapang Kawayan
in Masantol.

4. Liquefaction
Studies show that several towns of Pampanga are prone to liquefaction, which
occurs when sediments behave like a liquid during strong ground shaking. These
sediments are typically found on lowlands near water bodies. These lowlands
include beaches, deltas, riverbanks, reclaimed lands, and floodplains. For
liquefaction to occur, such sediments must also be recently deposited, loosely
packed, water-saturated, and sandy in composition.
PHILVOLCS reported an incidence of sand upwelling and liquefaction near Sasmuan
during the 1990 earthquake. Based on the iterations using REDAS, the
municipalities susceptible to high liquefaction are: Apalit, Bacolor, Candaba,
Macabebe, Masantol, Minalin, San Luis, San Simon, Santo Tomas, and Sasmuan.
Today the province uses a liquefaction susceptibility map from PHIVOLCS to identify
areas prone to liquefaction. The data can be further extracted via GIS when the need
arises.

Six municipalities have populations completely or almost completely exposed to

liquefaction. These are Apalit (100%), Macabebe (100%), Minalin (100%), Sasmuan
(100%), Sto. Tomas (99.93%), and Masantol (99.39%), which answer for 43% or
347,638 individuals out of the 808,470 persons (35% of the provincial population)
highly at risk of being exposed to liquefaction. Other municipalities with highly
susceptible populations are San Simon (95.81%), Candaba (94.61%), Bacolor
(93.26%), and San Luis (83.89%). On the other hand, residents of Mabalacat City
and the municipalities of Mexico, Magalang, and Sta. Ana is not highly susceptible
(i.e., recording 0% high susceptibility), but may be largely in low to moderately
susceptible areas. Liquefaction also poses certain and imminent threats to the built-
up sections in Apalit, Macabebe, Minalin, Sasmuan, Masantol, and Sto. Tomas.
Other LGUs that have highly susceptible built-up areas are Candaba (97.73%), San
Simon (97.12%), and San Luis (81.60%). Between the two cities of the province,
only the City of San Fernando has developed areas in high susceptibility, estimated
at 12.25% of CSFP’s total built-up portion.
5. Earthquake-induced landslides

An earthquake-induced landslide is the downslope movement of soil, rock, and

debris due to ground shaking generated by an earthquake. Areas with steeper
slopes are more prone to earthquake-induced landslides due to the greater
gravitational force acting on the slope.

During the earthquake’s mainshock, landslides can occur, and tension cracks may
form as well. These cracks serve as an indication of impending landslides, which
could be triggered by subsequent earthquakes, or heavy and prolonged rainfall.

Landslides are mainly classified based on the type of material and movement.
Materials can vary from rock, debris, or earth, and movement can range from slides,
flow, spreads, topples, and falls.

The landslide risk map depicts

possible precipitous sloping
topographies (“Gawad Kalasag 2018
Pampanga,” 2018) in the province of
Pampanga. Residents who may
experience landslides include the
zones being occupied by the residents
in the Municipality of Arayat where the
dormant Mount Arayat is situated. The
Municipalities of Magalang,
Mabalacat, Porac, and Floridablanca
where all possess one resemblance to
each other, landmasses that are
relatively elevated as compared to the
remaining sections of the province.

6. Coastal uplift or subsidence

Coastal uplift and subsidence refer to the vertical deformation of the coast in
response to the upward and downward movement of the crust along a fault or
subduction zone. Coastal uplift or subsidence may happen abruptly during an
earthquake (coseismic) or gradually during slow progressive deformation of the crust
(interseismic).

Uplift may result in widened coastal areas, seaward shift of high tide lines, and
exposed coral reef systems, marine plants, and animals. Subsidence may lead to
narrowed coastlines, landward shift of high tide lines, drowned mangroves, and
terrestrial plants.

Pampanga is literally sinking into the sea due to a phenomenon called subsidence.
Many towns in Pampanga actually sit on ancient lakes and swamps (“pinac” in old
Kapampangan), which are (a) the Pinac de Candaba where Candaba, San Luis, San
Simon, Apalit, Baliuag, San Miguel de Mayumu, San Ildefonso, Pulilan, San Rafael
and Cabiao are located; (b) the Pinac de Hagonoy where Calumpit, Hagonoy,
Plaridel, Malolos and Paombong are found, and where the Angat River joins the
Pampanga River via the Bagbag River; (c) the Pinac de San Antonio, located north
of Mount Arayat in Nueva Ecija; and (d) the Canarem Lake, located in Victoria,
Tarlac, which has become shallow and is now just a wetland and bird sanctuary
formerly known as Catanglaran, which means “where tanglad plants grew
abundantly.”

These swamps--the Hagonoy Swamp, the Candaba Swamp, the San Antonio
Swamp, and the Canarem Wetland--are located in a low-lying corridor that runs from
Nueva Vizcaya all the way down to Manila Bay. It's called the Pampanga River
Basin. It's where two big rivers, the Rio Grande and the Rio Chico, meet and merge,
and where all rivers,streams and rivulets coming from all directions in Central
Luzon--Sierra Madre, Caraballo and Zambales mountain ranges--collect and pass
right through Pampanga before exiting to the sea.

The direction of floods is mostly towards Bulacan because the Arnedo Dike (built
during the term of Pampanga Gov. Arnedo in the early 1900s) on the Pampanga side
of the Pampanga River, keeps the overflow water from spreading towards San
Fernando and the rest of our province. Without this dike, the floods from Pampanga
River would be evenly spread on both sides.