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CIE IGCSE Maths: Extended Your notes

Conditional Probability
Contents
Conditional Probability

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Conditional Probability
Your notes
Conditional Probability
What is conditional probability?
Conditional probability refers to situations where the probability of an event changes or is dependent
on other events having already happened
For example, drawing names from a hat, without replacement
If there are 10 (different) names in a hat to start with
1
the first name drawn has the probability of of being a particular name
10
1
the second name drawn has probability of being a particular name
9
or, if this particular name was the first one to be drawn, it would have probability 0 of being
drawn second
The probability has changed depending on what has happened already
Conditional probabilities often occur in the context of Venn diagrams, tree diagrams or two-way
tables
however questions may also be given in words only
in such cases it may sometimes be easier to understand what is happening by drawing one of
these diagrams
unless a question tells you to though, drawing a diagram is not essential
for many questions it is quicker simply to consider the possible options without drawing a diagram
Conditional probability questions are often in the form of "given that" questions
e.g. Find the probability it will rain today given that it rained yesterday
It makes sense that whether or not it rained yesterday would affect the probability of whether
or not it rains today
The phrase "given that" is not always used in conditional probability questions
Like AND/OR, you will need to interpret the phrases used in questions
Conditional probabilities are sometimes written using the 'straight bar' notation P(A | B )
That is read as 'the probability of A given B'
For example P( passes | no revision) would indicate the probability that a student passes his
exams, given that he has done no revision
That probability is likely to be quite different from P( passes | lots of revision) !

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Worked example
Your notes
A box contains 3 blue counters and 8 red counters.
A counter is taken at random and its colour noted.
The counter is then set aside and not put back into the box.
A second counter is then taken at random, and its colour noted.
Write down the probability that
i) the second counter is red, given that the first counter was red
ii) the second counter is blue, given that the first counter was red
iii) the second counter is red, given that the first counter was blue
iv) the second counter is blue, given that the first counter was blue.
i) If the first counter was red, then only 7 red counters remain in the box.
There are still 3 blue counters, and 10 counters in total.

ii) If the first counter was red, then only 7 red counters remain in the box.
There are still 3 blue counters, and 10 counters in total.

iii) If the first counter was blue, then only 2 blue counters remain in the box.
There are still 8 red counters, and 10 counters in total.

iv) If the first counter was blue, then only 2 blue counters remain in the box.
There are still 8 red counters, and 10 counters in total.

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Combined Conditional Probabilities

What are combined conditional probabilities? Your notes
Many trickier probability questions involve both conditional probabilities and combined probabilities
For example drawing multiple counters from a bag of different coloured counters without replacing
the counters already drawn
Probability questions like this are sometimes called 'without replacement' questions
Because multiple counters are being drawn, you need to use combined probabilities to find the
probability of, say, drawing two counters of the same colour
But because what is drawn one time affects the probabilities for what might be drawn on subsequent
times, it is also necessary to consider conditional probability in finding answers
How do I answer combined conditional probability questions?
You need to bring combined probability and conditional probability ideas together in an appropriate
manner
Most of these questions will involve using the AND means multiply ( × ) and OR means add ( + ) rules
from combined probability
Don't forget that events must be independent to use the AND rule, and mutually exclusive to use
the OR rule
But the probabilities for second (and subsequent) events will change according to the ideas
of conditional probability
So when e.g. drawing counters from a bag without replacement, the probabilities for the second
counter drawn will depend on which counter was drawn first
Consider a bag containing 7 green counters and 3 purple counters
One counter is drawn and its colour recorded, then a second counter is drawn without replacing
the first counter in the bag
What is the probability that both counters are green?
The probability that the first counter will be green is 7/10 (number of green divided by total number
in bag)
But if the first one is green then there are only 6 green tokens left in the bag, and 9 tokens left in
total
So the probability of the second counter being green (if the first one was green) is 6/9
This is the conditional probability part of the question
Now to find the probability of '1st counter green AND 2nd counter green' we multiply those two
probabilities together
7 6 42
P( both green) = × =
10 9 90
This is the combined probability part of the question
What about when two things are happening at the same time?
It is not always stated in a question that one thing happens first and then another thing happens later
For example a question might not say that a counter is drawn from a bag of counters and not
replaced, and then a second counter is drawn
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Instead it might simply say that two counters are drawn from a bag of counters
In answering a question like this you can always assume that the relevant things happen one after the
other Your notes
This doesn't change the maths of the question at all, but it makes it a lot easier to answer!
So for the example of drawing two counters from a bag
you can still just break it down into the probabilities for the 'first counter' and the 'second
counter'
drawing two counters at the same time is exactly the same as drawing one counter and then a
second counter without replacement
Are there any useful shortcuts for combined conditional probability questions?
Consider a bag containing 7 green counters and 3 purple counters, from which 2 counters are drawn
without replacement
For the probability of the two counters being different colours we can use the AND/OR rule with
'[1st green AND 2nd purple] OR [1st purple AND 2nd green]' to get
⎛⎜ 7 3⎞ ⎛ 3 7⎞ 21 21 42
⎜ × ⎟⎟ + ⎜⎜ × ⎟⎟ = + =
⎝ 10 9 ⎠ ⎝ 10 9 ⎠ 90 90 90
Notice that both 'AND' probabilities are equal (21/90)
This is because the same numerators and denominators occur in the original fractions
The numerators are swapped around, but this doesn't change the value of the product
So another way to do this is to realise that
there are two ways for the counters to be different colours (green then purple, or purple then
green)
and for each of those ways the probability is the same (7/10 times 3/9, or 3/10 times 7/9)
therefore the probability is
⎛ 7 3⎞ 21 42
2 × ⎜⎜ × ⎟⎟ = 2 × =
⎝ 10 9 ⎠ 90 90
This method can be especially useful when you have to consider more than just two things
For the same bag of counters above, how about the probability of drawing 2 green and 2 purple
counters when 4 counters are drawn without replacement?
You can do that with the AND/OR method, but you would have to multiply and add together for '[1st
green AND 2nd green AND 3rd purple AND 4th purple] OR [1st green AND 2nd purple AND 3rd
green AND 4th purple] OR...' (etc., etc.)
There would be six products of four fractions each to multiply and then add together
Or you can realise that
there are 6 ways for '2 green and 2 purple' to happen (GGPP, GPGP, GPPG, PPGG, PGPG,
PGGP)
and for each of those ways the probability is the same (7/10 times 6/9 times 3/8 times 2/7 -- it
doesn't matter which order those numerators are put in, as long as there's a 7, a 6, a 3, and a 2)
therefore the probability is

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⎛ 7 6 3 2⎞ 252 1512 ⎛⎜ 3 ⎞⎟
6 × ⎜⎜ × × × ⎟⎟ = 6 × = ⎜= ⎟
⎝ 10 9 8 7 ⎠ 5040 5040 ⎝ 10 ⎠ Your notes

Examiner Tip
In general use whatever the question does for probabilities – decimals, fractions or percentages
The only exception is that it can be easier to change percentages to decimals, especially if
multiplication is involved
When using fractions it is often a good idea NOT to simplify any fractions (except possibly the final
answer)
This is because fractions will often need to be added together, which is easier to do if they all
have the same denominator

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Worked example
Your notes
A bag contains 7 green counters and 3 purple counters.
A counter is taken at random and its colour noted. The counter is not returned to the box.
Then a second counter is taken at random and its colour noted. It also is not returned to the box.
Finally a third counter is taken at random, and its colour noted.
Work out the probability that
i) all three counters are purple
ii) exactly one of the three counters is purple
iii) at least one of the three counters is purple
i) This is an "AND" question: 1st purple AND 2nd purple AND 3rd purple.
Each time a purple is chosen there is one less purple left, so the numerator goes down by one
each time.
And each time a counter is chosen the total number remaining in the bag is one less, so the
denominator also goes down by one each time.

ii) This is an "AND" and "OR" question: [ 1st purple AND 2nd green AND 3rd green ] OR [ 1st green
AND 2nd purple AND 3rd green ] OR [ 1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd purple ].
The denominator needs to go down by 1 each time.
And the numerators need to change each time based on how many of each colour are left after
previous counters have been taken.

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Your notes
It would be quicker to do this using the 'shortcut method'.
There are 3 ways to get exactly 1 purple counter (PGG, GPG, and GGP).

So the probability is .

iii) The easiest way to do this is to realise that 'at least 1 purple' is the same as 'NOT all green'.
So find the 'all 3 green' probability and subtract it from 1.
'All three green' is an "AND" question: 1st green AND 2nd green AND 3rd green.
The numerators and denominators will change just as in part (i).

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Worked example
Your notes
A large box contains 30 bags of crisps. There are 9 bags of ready salted crisps (R), 17 bags of salt and
vinegar crisps (V), and 4 bags of cheese and onion crisps (C).
Aram takes at random two bags of crisps from the box.
Work out the probability that the two bags he takes are of different types.

There are several ways to do this.

The long way is as an AND/OR question considering all the different options: '[R AND V] OR [V AND R]
OR [R AND C] OR [C AND R] OR [V AND C] OR [C AND V]'.
Be sure to change the numerators and denominators in the fractions to match what is left after each
choice.

You could also use the 'shortcut method' to simplify this slightly:
'2 [R AND V] + 2 [R AND C] + 2 [V AND C]'.

The simplest way, however, is to do this as an AND/OR question with the following breakdown:
'[R AND not R] OR [V AND not V] OR [C AND not C]'
For [R AND not R] there is 9/30 probability of the first bag being R. Then there are 17+4=21 V and C bags
left in the box, and 29 bags in total left in the box. So there is a 21/29 probability of the second bag NOT
being R.
Do the same thing to find the numerators and denominators for [V AND not V] and [C AND not C].
Note that for each of the products, the numerators add up to 30 (the total number of crisps in the box
to start).

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Your notes

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