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LECTURE - Chapter 05. Probability

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15 views23 pages

LECTURE - Chapter 05. Probability

Uploaded by

Tripel Tipei
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter 5.

Probability
5.1 Set Theory
5.2 Sample Space
5.3 Probability of an Event
5.4 Laws of probability

FFT 2073 BASIC STATISTICS

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PROBABILITY

I
Meteor showers are rare, but
the probability of them
occurring can be calculated.
Terminology
Event is any combination of
Probability is a measure that outcomes
is associated with how certain
we are of outcomes of a Example:
particular experiment or activity. Upper case letters like A and
B represent events.
Experiment is a planned The probability of an event A
operation carried out under is written P(A).
controlled conditions.
Example:
Flipping one fair coin twice is an Probabilities are between
example of an experiment. zero and one, inclusive
P(A) = 0 means the event A can
Outcome is a result of an never happen.
experiment P(A) = 1 means the event A always
happens.
P(A) = 0.5?

Sample Space is an experiment


Equally Likely means that each
is the set of all possible outcomes
outcome of an experiment occurs

List all possible outcome


.
with equal probability
How

Tree diagram Example:


Venn Diagram
If you randomly guess the answer
to a true/false question on an
Example: exam, you are equally
If you flip one fair coin, S = {H, T} Not Equally Likely? Unfair? likely to select a correct answer or
where Unbiased? an incorrect answer.
H = heads and T = tails are the
"OR" Event
outcomes.
“AND" Event
Not Equally Likely
"OR" Event: An outcome is in the event A OR B if the outcome is in A or
is in B or is in both A and B.
Example:
Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}. A OR B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8}. Notice that 4 and 5 are NOT listed twice.

“AND" Event: An outcome is in the event A AND B if the outcome is in


both A and B at the same time.
Example:
Let A and B be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}, respectively. Then A
AND B = {4, 5}.

The complement of event A is denoted A′ (read "A prime"). A′ consists


of all outcomes that are NOT in A.
Example:
Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and let A = {1, 2, 3, 4}.
Then, A′ = {5, 6}. P(A) = 4/6, P(A′) = 2/6

The conditional probability of A given B is written P(A|B). P(A|B) is the


probability that event A will occur given that the
event B has already occurred. A conditional reduces the sample space.
Example:
Suppose we toss one fair, six-sided die. The sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = face is 2 or 3 and B = face is even (2, 4, 6)
Example
Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent and mutually exclusive do not mean the same thing.

02
Example
Mutually Exclusive Events

02
Example
Example
Example
Two Basic Rules of Probability
When calculating probability, there are two rules to
consider when determining if two events are
independent or dependent and if they are mutually
exclusive or not.
Example
A contingency table provides a way of
portraying data that can facilitate calculating
probabilities. The table helps in determining
conditional probabilities quite easily. The
table displays sample values in relation to
two different variables that
may be dependent or contingent on one
another.
Example
A tree diagram is a special type of graph
used to determine the outcomes of an
experiment. It consists of "branches" that
are labeled with either frequencies or
probabilities. Tree diagrams can make
some probability problems easier to
visualize
and solve.
Example
A Venn diagram is a picture that
represents the outcomes of an
experiment. It generally consists of
a box that represents
the sample space S together with
circles or ovals. The circles or ovals
represent events.
Example
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