ADDITIVE RULE

-applies to unions of events.

Theorem #10: If A and B are any two events, then
P(AՍB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AՈB).
ADDITIVE RULE
Corollary 2.1: If A and B are mutually
exclusive, then P(AՍB) = P(A) + P(B)
Corollary 2.1 is an immediate result of theorem 10, since if
A and B are mutually exclusive, A∩B=0 and then P(A∩B) =
P(Ф)=0
Corollary 2.2: If A1,A2,...,An are mutually
exclusive then,
P(A1UA2U,...UAn) = P(A1)+P(A2)+...P(An)
A collection of events {A1,A2,...An} of a sample space S is
called a partition of S if A1,A2,..An are mutually exclusive
and A1UA2U....UAn=S
ADDITIVE RULE
Corollary 2.3: If A1,A2,...,An is a partition of
sample space S then,
P(A1UA2U,...UAn) = P(A1)+P(A2)+...P(An)
=P(S) = 1
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11
when a pair of fair dice is tossed?
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11
when a pair of fair dice is tossed?
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example:John is going to graduate from an Industrial
Engineering department in a university by the end of the
semester. After being interviewed at two companies he
likes, he assessed that his probability of getting an offer
from company A is 0.80, and his probability of getting an
offer from company B is 0.60. If he believes that the
probability that he will get offers from both companies is
0.50, what is the probability that he will get at least one
offer from these two companies?
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example:If the probabilities are respectively, 0.09, 0.15,
0.21 and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new automobile
will choose the color green, white, red or blue. What is the
probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of those colors?
ADDITIVE RULE
Theorem#11:For three events A, B, and C,
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) -
P(AC) - P(BC) + P(ABC).

Theorem#12:If A and A’ are complementary

events, then P(A) + P(A’) = 1.
Since A U A' = S and the sets A and A' are
disjoint
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example:Suppose we are playing a board game that
involves rolling two dice. Due to the rules of the game, we
need to get at least one of the dice to be two,three or four
in order to win. What is the probability of this?
A to be 2
P(A) = 11/36
B to be 3
P(B) = 11/36
C to be 4
P (c ) -= 11/36
P(A^B) = 2/36
P(A^C) = 2/36
P(B^C)= 2/36
P(A^B^C) = 0
P(AUBUC)=11/36+11/36+11/36-2/36-2/36-2/36 + 0
= 27/36
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example:If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3,4,5,6,7,8 or more cars on any given workday
are, respectively, 0.12,0.19,0.28,0.24,0.10 and 0.07. What
is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his
next day at work?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Theorem#13: If in an experiment the events
A and B can both occur, then
P(AՈB) = P(A)P(B|A)
provided P(A) > 0
P(A) = P(A∩B)/ P(B|A)
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example:The probability that a regularly scheduled flight
departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives
on time is P(A)= 0.82; and the probabililty that it departs
and arrives on time is P(D∩A)= 0.78. Find the probability
that a plane (a) arrives on time, given that it departed on
time. (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example: Consider an industrial process in the textile
industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are
being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways,
length and nature of texture. For the case of the latter, the
process of identification is very complicated. It is known
from historical information on the process that 10% of strips
fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8%
fail both tests. If a strips is selected randomly from the
process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing the
length test, what is the probability that it is texture test?
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Theorem#14: Two events A and Bare
independent if and only if
P(AՈB) = P(A)P(B)
Example: Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of
which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed
from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the
probability that both fuses are defective?
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Example: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance
available for emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is
available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the
ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury
resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they
operate independently.
 PRODUCT RULE
Theorem#15: If in an experiment, the events
A1,A2,…,Ak can occur, then
P(A1ՈA2ՈA3…ՈAk) =
P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|A1ՈA2)…P(Ak|A1ՈA2Ո…ՈAk-1).
If the events A1,A2,…,Ak are independent,
then P(A1ՈA2Ո…ՈAk) = P(A1)P(A2)…P(Ak).…
 PRODUCT RULE
Example: Three cards are drawn in succession, without
replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards.
Find the probability that the event A1∩A2∩A3 occurs,
where A1 is the event that the first card is a red ace, A2
the event that the second card is a jack or a queen, and
A3 is the event that the third card is greater than 3 but
less than 7.
 TOTAL PROBABILITY
Theorem#16: If events B1,B2,..,Bk constitute a
partition of the sample space S such that P(Bi) ≠ 0 for i =
1,2,...,k, then for any event A of S,

P(A) = ∑ P(Bi∩A) = ∑ P(Bi)P(A│Bi)

 TOTAL PROBABILITY
Example: In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1,B2
and B3, make 30%, 45% and 25%, respectively, of the
products. It is known from the past experience that 2%, 3%,
and 2% of the products made by each machine, respectively,
are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
 BAYES' RULE
Theorem#17: If events B1,B2,..,Bk constitute a
partition of the sample space S such that P(Bi) ≠ 0 for i =
1,2,...,k, then for any event A of S such that P(A) ≠ 0.

P(Br│A) = P(Br∩A)/∑ P(Bi∩A) = P(Br)P(A│Br)/∑

P(Bi)P(A│Bi)
 BAYES'S RULE
Example: Refer to the last example, if a product was
chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is the
probability that it was made by machine B3?
ACTIVITY NO. 3
1.Suppose that in senior college class of 500 students it is
found that 210 smoke, 258 drink alcoholic beverages, 216
eat between meals, 122 smoke and drink alcoholic
beverages, 83 eat between meals and drink alcoholic
beverages, 97 smoke and eat between meals and 52
engage in all three bad health practices. If a member of this
senior class is selected at random, find the probability that
the student
(a)smokes but does not drink alcoholic beverages
(b)eats between meals and drink alcoholic beverages but
does not smoke
(c)Neither smoke nor eats between meals
ACTIVITY NO. 3
2.The probability that an American industry will locate in
Shanghai, China is 0.7, the probability that it will locate in
Beijing, China, is 0.4, and the probability that it will locate in
either Shanghai or Beijing or both is 0.8. What is the
probability that the industry will locate
(a)in Shanghai or Beijing?
(b)In neither city?
3.In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54
studied Mathematics, 69 studied history, and 35 studied
both mathematics and history. If one of these students is
selected at random, find the probability that
(a)the student took Mathematics or history
(b)The student did not take either of these subjects
(c)The student took history but not mathematics
ACTIVITY NO. 3
4.A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by
sex and their level of education attained.
Education Male Female
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the
probability that
(a)the person is a male, given that the person has a
secondary education
(b)the person does not have a college degree, given that
the person is a female