Level 1

Elements of
Chance
Workbook
Name: ​

By Liz Sneddon
 Introduction
There are some situations where we know what the theoretical probability is (e.g.
tossing a coin has a 50% chance of getting a head), and other situations where we do
not know what the theoretical probability is (e.g. what is the chance that the
photocopier breaks down today?). We will explore both of these types of situations.

Theoretical probabilities
A coin:
A coin has two sides, heads and tails.

A die:
A standard die has 6 sides, with the numbers 1 – 6 on each
side. You can get die with 10, 12, or other numbers of sides.

Page 2
A Spinner:
A spinner is a circle that has been divided up into
any number of pieces.

A pack of cards:
In a pack of cards there are 4 suits:
●​ Diamonds

●​ Hearts

●​ Clubs

●​ Spades

Each suit has 13 cards:

Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2

Random number generator:

Both your calculator and the computers have
a random number generator, which can
generate a random number.

Page 3
 Language of probability
Probability is a measure of the chance of an event happening.

It can be written as a decimal, fraction or percentage

Probabilities MUST be between 0 and 1 (inclusive)

0
never​ rare​ sometimes​ half​ often​ usually​ always
impossible​ unlikely​ maybe​likely​ certain

Exercise:
1)​ Using the terms of probability, rate the following events as certain, likely,
unlikely, impossible, or even chance.

a)​ a lion having four legs​ _______________________

b)​ rolling a 7 with a normal die ​ _______________________

c)​ choosing a black card ​ _______________________

d)​ Monday will follow Sunday next week ​ _______________________

e)​ winning Lotto ​ _______________________

f)​ a year having 410 days​ _______________________

2)​ Select from the words below to best describe an event that has a probability of
the values below.
​ certain, most likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible

a)​ 90% ​ _______________________

b)​ 1/2 ​ _______________________

c)​ 1 ​ _______________________

d)​ 0 ​ _______________________

e)​ 15% ​ _______________________

f)​ 0·007 ​ _______________________

Page 4
Page 5
 Terminology

Outcome: A possible result from an experiment ​

E.g. got a 6 rolling a die

Sample space: The list of all outcomes

E.g. rolling a die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Event: Something which has a number of outcomes by chance

E.g. roll a die

Trial: One repetition of an event

E.g. rolled a die once

Frequency: Number of times an event occurs

Equally likely outcomes: outcomes with the same chance

1
E.g. Rolling a die: 𝑃(1) = 𝑃(2) = 𝑃(3) = 𝑃(4) = 𝑃(5) = 𝑃(6) = 6

P (outcome A) = “the probability of getting outcome A is…”

Independent: not influenced by other events

Relative frequency: Probability

Example:
List the outcomes for selecting a suit from a pack of cards.
Sample space: Hearts, Diamonds, Spades, Clubs.

Page 6
Exercise:
1)​ Write the sample space (all of the outcomes) for each of the following.
a)​ selecting a day of the week
______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

b) ​ choosing a month of the year

______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

c) ​ rolling a die once

______________________________________________________________________________

d) ​ tossing a coin once

______________________________________________________________________________

e) ​ choosing a letter from the alphabet

_____________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

Page 7
2)​ The letters of the word MATHEMATICS are written on cards and turned face
down. A card is then selected at random.

a) ​ Write the sample space.

______________________________________________________________________________

b) ​ How many elements are in the sample space?

______________________________________________________________________________

c) ​ How many different elements are in the sample space?

______________________________________________________________________________

3)​ For each of the following, decide whether each element of the sample space is
equally likely to occur, and circle your answer.

a) ​ tossing a coin ​ Equally likely / Not equally likely

b) ​ rolling a die ​ Equally likely / Not equally likely

c)​ the result of a cricket game between two teams

Equally likely / Not equally likely

d)​ selecting a card from a normal pack of cards

Equally likely / Not equally likely

Page 8
 Probabilities
To find the probability of an event

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑖𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑛 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Example:
Rolling a die has the following outcomes:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
The probability that the number 5 comes up when a
die is rolled is:

1
𝑃𝑟(5 𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 6

Exercise:
1)​ The following fair spinners are spun. What is the probability of landing on the
shaded section for each spinner?

Page 9
2)​ Counters are placed in a box. For each of the following boxes, find the probability
of a shaded counter being drawn out of the box at random.

3)​ In a game, you throw a coin onto a board. It will always land exactly on one
square. if you land on a shaded square you win. Find the probability of winning
on the following boards.
a)

f)

k)​ Which of these boards is fair?

l)​ On which board are you most likely to win?

m)​ On which board are you most likely to lose?

Page 10
4)​ A card is drawn at random from a normal pack of 52 cards. Find the probability
that the card is:

a)​ a diamond ​ ______________________________________________

b)​ a red card ​ ______________________________________________

c)​ a king ​ ______________________________________________

d)​ not a club ​ ______________________________________________

e)​ a red ace ​ ______________________________________________

f)​ a 5 of clubs ​ ______________________________________________

g)​ an 8 ​ ______________________________________________

5)​ A die is thrown once. Find the probability that it is:

a)​ a six ​ ______________________________________

b)​ an even number ​ ______________________________________

c)​ a number greater than 4 ​ ______________________________________

d)​ a seven ​ ______________________________________

6)​ A bag contains 5 red, 3 blue and 2 white balls. If a ball is drawn at random, find
the probability that it is:

a)​ blue ​ _____________________________________________________

b)​ red ​ _____________________________________________________

c)​ white ​ _____________________________________________________

Page 11
 Experimental probabilities
We can carry out experiments or simulations to estimate the probability of things that
we don’t know the theoretical probability for. E.g. We don’t know the probability that
the photocopier will break down, but we could collect some data to estimate it.

Tally, Frequency and Relative Frequency

A tally is recording a tally mark when you have a certain outcome in your data set.
A frequency is counting up how many times each number occurs.

𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
Relative frequency=
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Example:
The frequency of the following numbers are:
4, 8, 3, 2, 7, 7, 8, 7, 3, 6, 5, 2, 8, 5, 4, 7, 6, 2, 3, 2

Score Tally Frequency Relative Frequency

2 |||| 4 4 / 20 = 0.2

3 ||| 3 3 /20 = 0.15

4 || 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

5 || 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

6 || 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

7 |||| 4 4 / 20 = 0.2

8 ||| 3 3 / 20 = 0.15

Total = 20

Page 12
Exercise:
1)​ A survey involving the test results obtained by a class of 30 students is given:
9 7 7 5 6 7 6 7 8 6 6 6 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 6 5 4 3 6 7 9 8 9 7 9

Score Tally Frequency Relative Frequency

10

Total =

2)​ Fifty families were surveyed to find how many children each family has and the
following set of data was obtained. Complete the frequency distribution table.
5 3 2 4 1 5 0 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 4 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 2
3 2 1 3 1 2 3 0 1 1 5 3 4 5 0 3 0 2 0 2 2 1 5 4 3

Score Tally Frequency Relative Frequency

Total =

Page 13
 Frequency and Relative Frequency bar graphs
A frequency graph plots the frequency on the vertical axis and the scores or groups
on the horizontal axis.
A relative frequency graph plots the relative frequency (as a decimal between 0 and
1) on the vertical axis and the scores or groups on the horizontal axis.

Example:

Letter Frequency Relative Frequency

A 4 4 / 20 = 0.2

B 3 3 /20 = 0.15

C 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

D 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

E 2 2 / 20 = 0.1

F 4 4 / 20 = 0.2

G 3 3 / 20 = 0.15

Total = 20

Page 14
Exercise:
1)​ A survey involving the test results obtained by a class of 30 students is
summarised below. Draw both a frequency and relative frequency bar graph.

Score Frequency Relative Frequency

3 1

4 1

5 3

6 8

7 7

8 4

9 5

10 1

Total =

Page 15
2)​ Fifty families were surveyed to find how many children each family has and the
following set of data was obtained. Draw both a frequency and relative frequency
bar graph.

Children Frequency Relative Frequency

0 5

1 10

2 13

3 13

4 4

5 5

Total =

Page 16
 Step by Step Simulation
When you toss a drawing pin, there are two ways the pin can land. Either:

Pin up​ or​ Pin down

Problem
I wonder what the probability of the pin landing pin up is?

Plan
1)​ Collect a pin from your maths teacher.

2)​ Find a flat surface to safely do the experiment.

3)​ Hold your arm about 30 cm above the table and drop the pin.

4)​ Record whether it landed pin up on the tally chart below.

5)​ Repeat this a total of 50 times.

6)​ Return the pin to your teacher.

Data
Carry out your investigation and record your data below.

Outcome Tally Frequency Relative Frequency

Pin up

Pin down

Page 17
Draw both a frequency and relative frequency bar graph

Analysis

Mode =

I notice that the most common result is ___________________

Conclusion
From my simulation the estimated probability of the pin landing facing up is:

Page 18
 Long run frequency
This looks at how the frequency changes as you run more and more simulations. The
first few times you run a simulation the probability varies, but as we include more and
more data into our estimate of the probability, the accuracy of this increases, and the
estimated probability gets closer and closer to the true probability.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
𝑃(𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 (𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠)

Example:
Here is a long-run frequency graph for tossing a coin and recording the number of
heads.

Notice that as the number of trials (our sample size) gets bigger and bigger, the
probability of a head gets closer and closer to 0.5 or 50%.

Page 19
Example:
We want to toss a coin, and find the long-run frequency of getting a head.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠
𝑃(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒

Flip Result H's so far Working out probability P(Head)

0
1 T 0 0.00
1

1
2 H 1 0.50
2

1
3 T 1 0.33
3

1
4 T 1 0.25
4

2
5 H 2 0.40
5

2
6 T 2 0.33
6

2
7 T 2 0.29
7

2
8 T 2 0.25
8

3
9 H 3 0.33
9

3
10 T 3 0.30
10

4
11 H 4 0.36
11

5
12 H 5 0.42
12

5
13 T 5 0.38
13

Page 20
 6
14 H 6 0.43
14

6
15 T 6 0.40
15

7
16 H 7 0.44
16
Here is a graph of the first 10 flips.
Notice that the relative frequency is on the 𝑦 −axis, and the number of flips is on the
𝑥 −axis. Also notice that there is a lot of variation in the probability.

50 trials.
Notice how the probability is starting to flatten out.

Page 21
Page 22
500 trials.
Notice how the probability is getting quite stable now?

So the bigger the sample size (or number of trials), the more accurate our probability
estimate is.

Page 23
Exercise:
We want to estimate the long-run-probability of getting an EVEN number on a die.
Roll a die 20 times, calculating the long run relative frequency for an EVEN number.

Roll Result # Even so far P(Even)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Page 24
Page 25
 Probability Concepts

NOT (or Complement)

not happen,
When we want to find out the probability that an even does

this is called the complement, or NOT.

𝑃(𝐴' ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Example:

What is the probability of not rolling a 1 on a die?

𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 1) = 𝑃(1' )

= 1 − 𝑃(1)
1
= 1 − 6
5
= 6

Page 26
Exercise:
3
1)​ The probability that I win a 100m race is . What is the probability that I don’t
10
win the race?

2)​ The probability that it rains tomorrow is 0.14. What is the probability that it
doesn’t rain tomorrow?

3)​ A jar of marbles contains 3 different coloured marbles: red, green and blue. One
2
quarter of the marbles are red, and are green.
5

a)​ What is the probability of not getting a blue marble?

b)​ What is the probability of not getting a green marble?

c)​ What is the probability of not getting a red marble?

4)​ If I randomly choose a card from a pack of cards, what is the probability of:

a)​ not getting a red card?

b)​ not getting a heart?

c)​ not getting a Queen?

c)​ not getting a picture card (Jack, Queen or King)?

Page 27
 Mutually exclusive
When events cannot happen at the same time,
they are called mutually exclusive.

Example 1:
1 1
If a fair coin is thrown, P(Heads) = and P(Tails) =
2 2

It is impossible for the coin to land on Heads and Tails at the

same time. These are mutually exclusive.

In this example there are no other possible outcomes and these

are also called exhaustive events.

The probabilities of exhaustive events add up to 1.

Example 2:
A jar of marbles contains 3 different coloured marbles:
red, green and blue.
2
One quarter of the marbles are red, and are green.
5
What is the probability of getting a blue marble?

I know that
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) + 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 1

1 2 7
Therefore 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 1 − 4
− 5
= 20
𝑜𝑟 0. 35

Page 28
Exercise:
1)​ A biased coin has a probability of it landing on heads of 0.6. What is the
probability of landing on tails?

2)​ Another biased coin has a probability of it landing on tails of 0.25. What is the
probability of landing on heads?

3)​ Year 11 and Year 12 boys play a soccer match with a penalty shoot-out, so the
teams cannot draw. The probability of Year 11 winning is 0.42. What is the
probability of Year 12 boys winning?

4)​ Ben plays a game of chess against a computer. It cannot draw. The computer is
set to have a 0.57 chance of winning the game. What is the probability that Ben
wins the game?

5)​ In the school canteen Jenny can choose from chips, pasta or baked potato. The
5 1
probability she chooses chips is , the probability she choose pasta is . What
8 8
is the probability she chooses a baked potato?

6)​ Billy the cat eats out of a red, yellow or green bowl. The probability he eats out
of the red bowl is 0.53 and the probability he eats out of the green bowl is 0.39.
What is the probability he eats out of the yellow bowl?

Page 29
 AND
When looking at two events, we may want to know what is the
probability that event 1 and event 2 happen.

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Example 1:
5
The chance of it raining tomorrow is 60%, and the chance that it is a school day is .
7
What is the probability that it is raining and it is a school day?

𝑃(𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)= 𝑃(𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛) × 𝑃(𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)

5
= 0. 60 × 7
3
= 7
or 0. 4286 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

Page 30
Example 2:
4
When Mantaj is playing hockey and gets a penalty corner, he has a chance of
7
scoring a goal. What is the probability that he scores two penalty goals?

𝑃(2 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑦 𝑔𝑜𝑎𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 1𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 2𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡)
= 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠)
4 4
= 7
× 7
16
= 49

Exercise:
1)​ Jane goes shopping. The probability that she buys a CD is 0.4. The probability
that she buys a magazine is 0.6. What is the probability that she buys a CD and
a magazine?

2)​ In a soccer match the probability that Michael scores is 0.4. The probability that
James scores is 0.2. What is the probability that Michael and James score in the
match?

3)​ A coin and a fair die are thrown. Calculate the probability of getting:
a)​ a tail and a five,

b)​ a head and a two.

4)​ Two fair dice are rolled. Calculate the probability of rolling a double six.

Page 31
5)​ A playing card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. It is replaced, the pack is
shuffled, and another card is selected. Find the probability that:
a​)​ the two cards are both red,

b)​ the two cards are both Diamonds,

c)​ the two cards are both Kings,

d)​ a red card then a King was chosen.

6)​ A bag contains 3 red balls, 5 yellow balls and 2 green balls. A ball is selected at
random, the colour noted then it is put back into the bag. A second ball is then
selected at random from the bag. Find the probability that:
a)​ the two balls selected are both red.

b)​ the two balls selected are both green.

c)​ the first ball was yellow and the second ball was green.

d)​ A third ball is selected. Find the probability that all three balls selected are
yellow.

Page 32
7)​ A coin is thrown twice and the results noted. Calculate the probability of:
a)​ the coin landed on Heads both times.

b)​ the coin landing on a tail then on a head.

c) ​ the coin landing on a head and a tail.

d)​ What is the difference between question b) and c) ?

e) ​ What is the probability it lands on Heads for all three throws?

Page 33
 OR
When looking at two events, we may want to know what is the probability that
event 1 OR event 2 happen (as long as they are mutually exclusive).

𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Example 1:
A bag contains 5 red marbles, 3 yellow
marbles and 2 green marbles. One is
picked at random.

What is the probability that it is a red

OR a yellow marble?

𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒) + 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒)

5 3
= 10
+ 10
8
= 10
4
= 5

Page 34
Exercise:
1)​ Traffic lights can be red, orange or green. The probability of showing orange is
0.17, the probability of showing red is 0.14.
a)​ What is the probability of showing orange or red?

b)​ What is the probability of showing green or orange?

c)​ What is the probability of showing green or red?

2)​ In a flower contest, the probability that a red rose will win is 0.18, the probability
that a yellow rose will win is 0.24. What is the probability that a red or yellow
rose will win?

3)​ A fair die is rolled. What is the probability of it landing on a 3 or 4?

4)​ There are 4 doors in an office. The probability that Janet enters by door 1 is 0.06
and the probability that she enters by door 2 is 0.66. What is the probability that
she enters by either door 1 or 2?

Page 35
Combination questions:
5)​ A bag contains 8 blue discs, 12 orange discs and 4 red discs. If a disc is picked at
random what is the probability of getting:
a)​ a blue disc?

b)​ an orange disc?

c)​ a blue or red disc?

d)​ a blue or orange disc?

e)​ not an orange disc?

f)​ a blue, orange or red disc?

6)​ A small box of chocolates contains 3 hard centers, 8 soft centers and 7 chewy
centers. What is the probability of picking:
a)​ a hard center?

b)​ a hard or soft center?

c)​ a soft or chewy center?

d)​ a hard or chewy center?

Page 36
 e)​ not a soft center?

f)​ not a soft or hard center?

7)​ In a class of thirty students, 9 play hockey, 12 play soccer, 5 play rugby and 4 go
swimming. If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the
student will:
a)​ play soccer?

b)​ play hockey or swim?

c)​ play hockey or soccer?

d)​ not play rugby?

e)​ not swim?

f)​ not play rugby or swim?

Page 37
 Sampling without replacement
When you sampling without replacement the probability changes.

Example:
A card is picked at random from these shown, it is not replaced, and a second card
is picked.

What is the probability that the first card is red and the second card is yellow?

3
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 5

2 1
𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = 4
= 2

3 1
Therefore 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = 5
× 2
3
= 10

Page 38
Page 39
Exercise:
1)​ There are 4 yellow cards and 2 red cards in a set.
A card is picked at random and is not replaced. A
second card is then picked. Find:

a)​ 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

b)​ 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

c)​ 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)

2)​ In a bag there are 4 green marbles and one yellow

marble. Two marbles are selected randomly
without replacement. Find:

a)​ 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

b)​ 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)

c)​ 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

3)​ In a bag there are 4 blue marbles, one

green marble and two yellow marbles.
Two marbles are selected randomly
without replacement. Find:

a)​ 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

b)​ 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)

c)​ 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒)

4)​ There are 3 yellow cards, 1 red card and 1 green card
in a set. Two cards are picked at random without
replacement. Find:

a)​ 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑟𝑒𝑑)

b)​ 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)

c)​ 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)

Page 40
 Expected Value
When we have data from a sample, we can use this to estimate where the center is.
This is called the expected value.

𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑋) × 𝑛
where 𝑛 is sample size or number of trials.

Remember, this is only a predicted value, not what will happen.

Example:
A police officer stops 100 cars at random. 15 drivers did not have a Driver's Licence
with them.
a)​ What is the probability that a driver does not have their licence?

15
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒) = 100
= 0. 15

b)​ If the police officer stops another 360 cars, how many might they expect to
have no licence?

𝐸(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑛𝑜 𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒) × 𝑛

= 0. 15 × 360
= 54 drivers

I expect that the police officer would find approximately 54 drivers with no
licences.

Page 41
Exercise:
1)​ A coin is to be thrown in an experiment. How many times would you expect it to
land on Heads if it is thrown
a)​ 200 times?

b)​ 900 times?

c)​ 2450 times?

d)​ 9446 times?

2)​ A fair die is to be rolled in another experiment. How many times would you
expect the die to land on a 6 if it is rolled:
a)​ 120 times?

b)​ 600 times?

c)​ 792 times?

d)​ 21246 times?

3)​ If you carried out the experiments in questions 1 and 2, would you expect to get
exactly these results? Explain why or why not.

Page 42
4)​ Here are the results of a survey of cars passing the school.

Colour Red Blue Green Yellow Other

Number of cars 40 30 15 10 5

a)​ What is the probability of the next car passing the school being:
(i)​ red?

(ii)​ green?

(iii)​ yellow?

(iv)​ not blue?

b)​ If 900 cars pass the school, how many do you expect would be yellow?

c)​ If 60 cars pass the school, how many do you think would be red?

d)​ If 400 cars pass the school, how many do you think would be blue?

Page 43
5)​ A drawing pin is repeatedly dropped in an experiment to see which way up it will
land. Here are the results.

Outcome Frequency

Point up 160

Point down 40

a)​ What is the probability of the drawing pin landing point up?​

b)​ If the drawing pin is dropped 600 times, how many times do you expect it to
land point up?

c)​ If the drawing pin is dropped 50 times, how many times do you expect it to
land point down?

Page 44
6)​ Jean conducts a survey on students’ favourite snacks. Here are the results:

Snack Chips Chocolate Fruit Biscuit Other

Frequency 30 25 8 40 17

a)​ What is the probability of a student

(i)​ liking chips?

(ii)​ liking fruit?

(iii)​ liking biscuits?

(iv)​ not liking chocolate?

b)​ If 600 students were asked, how many would you expect to say they
preferred a biscuit?

c)​ If 80 students were asked, how many would you expect to say they
preferred chips?

d)​ If 360 students were asked, how many would you expect to say they
preferred a chocolate?

Page 45
 Conditional probability
When the probability of an event is dependent on the outcome of another
event then this is described as conditional probability.

When you have a subset of the data, we want to find the probability within this
subset.

Page 46
Example 1:
A survey was done on 100
students. 34 students were late to
school in the morning. 12 of the
students were late to school and
were not wearing the correct
uniform.
If I choose a student at random
who was late to school, what is
the probability that the student is
not wearing the correct uniform?

𝑃(𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡)

𝑃( 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 | 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒 ) = 𝑃(𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒)
12
= 34
6
= 17
or 0. 3529 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

Example 2:
70% of students like chocolate. 30% of the
students like chocolate and strawberry.
If I choose a student at random who likes
chocolate, what is the probability that the
student also likes strawberry?

𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦)

𝑃( 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 | 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒 ) = 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒)

0.3
= 0.7

3
= or 0. 4286 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)
7

Page 47
Exercise:
1)​ A die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a number 2, given that the number
is odd.

2)​ A die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a number less than 5, given that
the number is even.

3)​ Andrea is a very good student. The probability that she studies and passes her
17 15
maths test is . If the probability Andrea studies is , find the probability
20 16
that Andrea passes her maths test given that she has studied.

Page 48
 3
4)​ The probability that Janice smokes is . The probability that she smokes and
10
4
develops lung cancer is . Find the probability that Janice develops lung
15
cancer, given that she smokes.

5)​ The probability that Sue will go to Mexico in the winter and to France in the
summer is 0.40. The probability that she will go to Mexico in the winter is 0.60.
Find the probability that she will go to France this winter, given that she just
returned from her winter vacation in Mexico.

6)​ The probability that a student takes Science and Drama is 0.087. The probability
that a student takes Science is 0.68. Given that a student is taking Science, what
is the probability that a student takes Drama?

Page 49
7)​ At OJC 18% of all students play soccer and basketball and 32% of all students
play soccer. Given that the student plays soccer, What is the probability that a
student plays basketball?

8)​ In Indonesia, 88% of all households have a TV. 51% of all households have a TV
and a VCR. What is the probability that a household has a VCR given that it has a
television?

9)​ The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking ticket is
0.06. The probability that Sam has to park in a no-parking zone (he cannot find a
legal parking space) is 0.20. Today Sam arrives at school and has to park in a
no-parking zone. What is the probability that he will get a parking ticket?

Page 50
 Two way tables
Two way tables are a way for us to display 2 categorical variables.

Each row has to add up to the total, and each column has to add up to the total.

Example 1:
Seventy two students went to tournament this year. There were fifteen Year 11
students and thirty one Year 12 students. From the 25 girls who went to tournament,
four were in Year 11 and thirteen were in Year 13. Setup and complete a table.

Step 1: Setup
The 2 categorical variables are year level (Year 11, 12 and 13) and gender (males and
females).

Year level
Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Total

Males

Females

Total

Page 51
Step 2: Fill in the information

Step 3: Complete the table

Remember, each row has to add up, and each column has to add up. Then both totals
have to add up.

And here is the final table:

Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Total

Males 11 23 13 47

Females 4 8 13 25

Total 15 31 26 72

Page 52
Exercise:
1)​ Data on the number of people who passed or failed their driving test is shown in
the table below. Complete the table.

Male Female Total

Passed 14

Failed 8

Total 25 45

2)​ Data on the performance of two rival train companies is shown below. Complete
the table.

On time Early Late Total

Virgin Trains 29 250

South West Trains 174 6

Total 384 49

3)​ A survey was carried out on 228 students at primary school. 116 of these
students were girls, and of these girls, 80 were right handed. 24 left handed
boys were in the survey. Complete the table below.

Page 53
4)​ Police officers were categorising drivers by their hair and eye colour. They found
that out of the 76 drivers with blond hair, there were 49 drivers who did not
have blue eyes. There were 249 drivers who did not have blue eyes, and there
were 24 drivers who had blue eyes but did not have blonde hair.

5)​ 90 people were asked whether they preferred Soaps, Drama or Crime shows. 12
men said they liked Dramas. 33 people in total said they liked Soaps, and 27 of
these were women. 25 people in total liked Dramas best. Only 10 women liked
Crime shows.
Complete the table below.

Page 54
 Calculating Probabilities using Two way tables
We now want to be able to use all of the rules we’ve learnt (And, Or, Expected value,
Conditional probability) and apply these to two way tables.

Example 1:
Data on students attending tournament was collected and is shown in the table
below.
Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Total

Males 11 23 13 47

Females 4 8 13 25

Total 15 31 26 72

a)​ What is the probability that a student selected at random was in Year 13?
26 13
𝑃(𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 13) = 72
= 36
𝑜𝑟 0. 3611 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

b)​ What is the probability that a student selected at random was male?
47
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 72
𝑜𝑟 0. 6528 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

c)​ What is the probability that a randomly selected student selected either was a
female or in Year 13?
25 + 26 − 13 37
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 13) = 72
= 72
𝑜𝑟 0. 5239 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

d)​ What is the probability that a male student chosen at random was in Year 13?
13
𝑃(𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 13 | 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 47
𝑜𝑟 0. 2766 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

e)​ What is the probability a student was female, given they were in Year 11?
4
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 | 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 11) = 15
𝑜𝑟 0. 2667 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)

f)​ In 2018 your school is planning to send 100 students to tournament. How
many Year 11 students would you expect to go?
15
𝑃(𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 11) = 72
𝑜𝑟 0. 2083 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝.)
𝐸=𝑛×𝑝

Page 55
 15
= 100 × 72

= 20. 83 = 20 𝑜𝑟 21 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 11 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

Exercise:
1)​ Data on the number of people who passed or failed their driving test is shown in
the table below.

Male Female Total

Passed 17 14 31

Failed 8 6 14

Total 25 20 45

a)​ What percentage of those surveyed passed the driving test?

b)​ A person is selected at random. What is the probability they were a male
who failed the driving test?

c)​ A person is selected at random. Given that the person was a female, what is
the probability they passed their test?

d)​ 200 people are due to sit their drivers test next month, how many of these
do you expect to be males who passed the test?

Page 56
2)​ Data on the performance of two rival train companies is shown below.

On time Early Late Total

Virgin Trains 210 11 29 250

South West Trains 174 6 20 200

Total 384 17 49 450

a)​ What percentage of each train company’s trains on time?

b)​ Did a higher percentage of Virgin trains arrive late?

c)​ In the next 5000 arrivals of South West Trains, how many would you expect
to arrive early?

d)​ Given that a train has arrived early, what is the probability that it is a South
West train?

Page 57
3)​ The table below shows the number of students studying Science at school.

Biology Physics Chemistry Total

Girls 15 7 20 42

Boys 18 27 3 48

Total 33 34 23 90

a)​ What is the chance of a girl taking Physics?

b)​ What is the probability that a girl studies Biology and Chemistry?

c)​ What is the chance that a student chosen at random is either a girl or takes
chemistry?

d)​ A Biology student was chosen at random, what is the probability that they
are male?

Page 58
4)​ People were surveyed about their TV show preferences. The data is shown in the
table below.

Soaps Drama Crime Total

Men 6 12 22 40

Women 27 13 10 50

Total 33 25 32 90

a)​ What is the chance of a person liking Drama shows?

b)​ What is the probability that a person chosen at random is male and likes
Drama shows?

c)​ What is the chance that a person chosen at random is either female or likes
soaps?

d)​ A person who likes Drama shows was chosen at random, what is the
probability that they are male?

Page 59
5)​ Data was collected on holiday destinations and is shown in the table below.

Hawaii Samoa Rarotonga Total

Under 25 32 6 12 50

25 + 25 9 36 70

Total 57 15 48 120

a)​ What is the chance that a person chosen at random would have gone on
holiday to Samoa?

b)​ In the next month, there are 500 people booked to go on holiday. How many
would you expect to be under 25 and going to Hawaii?

c)​ What is the chance that a person chosen at random is either 25+ or is going
on holiday to Rarotonga?

d)​ Does a higher proportion of under 25’s of 25+ prefer Samoa as their holiday
destination?

Page 60
 Tree diagrams
We can represent probabilities in two tables or we can represent it as a tree diagram.
Here is a tree diagram for the toss of a coin:

There are two branches (Heads and Tails)

●​ The probability of each branch is written on the branch.
●​ The outcome is written at the end of the branch.
We can extend the tree diagram to two tosses of a coin:

Page 61
To calculate the overall probabilities:

●​ We multiply probabilities along the branches

●​ We add probabilities down columns.

Page 62
Example:

A survey of 140 students was taken on a particular day. From the 88 students who
walk regularly to school, 56 got to school on time. From the students who got to
school a different way, 14 were late.

Completed diagram.

Page 63
 a)​ What is the probability that a student selected at random walked to school
and was on time?

2
P(Walked and On time) =
5

b)​ What is the probability that a student selected at random was late to
school?

P(Late) = P(Walked, Late) + P(Didn’t Walk, Late)

8 1
=
35
+ 10

23
= or 0.3286 (4.d.p.)
70

c)​ What is the probability that a randomly selected student either walked or
was on time?

P(Walked or On time) = P(Walk, On time) + P(Walk, Late) + P(Didn’t walk, On time)

2 8 9
=
5
+ 35
+ 35

31
= or 0.8857 (4.d.p.)
35

d)​ What is the probability that a student who walked to school was on time?

𝑃(𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑂𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒)

𝑃(𝑂𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 | 𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑘𝑒𝑑) =
𝑃(𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑘𝑒𝑑)
2/5
= 88/140
7
= 11

Page 64
Page 65
e)​ What is the probability that a student didn’t walk to school, given they
were late?

𝑃(𝐷𝑖𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑘 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒)

𝑃(𝐷𝑖𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑘 | 𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒) =
𝑃(𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒)
1/10
= 23/70
7
= 23

f)​ If there are 580 students at your school, how many would you expect to
get to school on time?

𝑃(𝑂𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑘, 𝑂𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) + 𝑃(𝐷𝑖𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑘, 𝑂𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒)

2 9
= 5
+ 35
23
= 35
𝑜𝑟 0. 6571 (4. 𝑑. 𝑝)
𝐸=𝑛×𝑝
23
= 580 × 35
= 381. 1
= 381 𝑜𝑟 382 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

Page 66
Exercises:

1)​ Each morning Makayla and Brooklyn catch the same bus. The probability that
Makayla catches the bus is 0.9 and for Brooklyn it is 0.7. The probabilities are
independent of each other.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that on a given day they both catch the bus?

c)​ Calculate the probability that Makayla catches the bus but not Brooklyn.

d)​ What is the proportion that neither catches the bus?

e)​ What is the chance that at least one of them catches the bus?

Page 67
2)​ There are 10 books on a shelf in the library. Seven are fiction and three are
non-fiction. A student takes a book at random, looks at it, and then replaces it on
the shelf. Another student then takes a book at random from the shelf.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that the two books taken are both non-fiction?

c)​ Calculate the probability that both books are fiction.

d)​ What is the probability that there is one fiction and one non-fiction book?

e)​ Given that the first book is a fiction story, what is the chance that the
second book is also fiction?

Page 68
3)​ In a box there are 6 red and 4 green counters, all the same size. One is drawn
and then replaced. A second counter is then drawn.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that both counters are red?

c)​ What is the probability that at least one counter is green?

d)​ Given that the first counter is green, what is the chance that the second
counter is red?

e)​ If we repeat this process 200 times (e.g. drawing a counter, replacing it, and
drawing a second counter), how many times would you expect to get two
green counters?

Page 69
4)​ A fair coin is thrown three times.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that all three coins are Heads?

c)​ What is the probability that exactly two coins land on Tails?

d)​ What is the chance that at least one coin lands on Tails?

e)​ If I repeat this process 350 times (e.g. toss a coin 3 times), how many
times would you expect to get two or more Heads?

Page 70
5)​ On any particular day it can be sunny, cloudy or rainy. The probability of it being
sunny is 0.2, cloudy 0.3 and rainy 0.5.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that both days are sunny?

c)​ What is the probability that it does not rain at all?

d)​ Given that the first day is sunny, what is the chance that the second day is
sunny?

Page 71
4)​ A couple have three children. It is equally likely that each child is a boy or a girl.

a)​ Draw a probability tree for this and mark the probabilities and outcomes.

b)​ What is the probability that all three are boys?

c)​ What is the probability that they have 2 girls and a boy?

d)​ What is the chance that at least one child is a boy?

e)​ What is the probability that they have no girls?

Page 72
4)​ On a fruit machine there are three drums, each with cherries, lemons and pears.
The probability of a cherry is 0.5, the probability of a lemon is 0.1 and the
probability of a pear is 0.4.

a)​ Draw a probability tree adding the probabilities and outcomes.

b)​ What is the probability that all are cherries?

c)​ What is the probability that at least one lemon is picked?

d)​ What is the chance that at least one cherry and pear is picked?

e)​ What is the probability that not one is a pear?

Page 73
 Sampling without replacement
Sampling without replacement is when you don’t replace the first item you choose
before you choose a second. This means the probability changes between the first
and second item.

Example:

We have a bag of 6 gummy bears (2 red and

4 blue). We will randomly choose a gummy
bear and eat it. Then we will select another
one.

Page 74
Exercises:

1)​ Laura has 6 white socks and 10 black socks of the same kind in a drawer. In the
dark she takes two socks at random, one after the other, out of the drawer.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that she takes out a pair of white socks?

c)​ What is the probability that she takes out two socks of different colours?

d)​ What is the probability that at least one of them is black?

Page 75
2)​ A bag contains 6 red balls and 4 blue balls. Hazel removes two balls from the bag
without replacing the first.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ Calculate the probability that she takes out 2 red balls.

c)​ Calculate the probability that she takes out 2 blue balls.

d)​ What is the probability that she takes out one of each colour?

e)​ What is the chance that at least one of the balls she takes out is blue?

Page 76
3)​ In a cage are 4 blue budgies, 5 red budgies and 3 green budgies. The door of the
cage is left open and two fly out.
a)​ Complete the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that 2 blue budgies fly out?

c)​ Calculate the probability that a green and red budgie fly out.

d)​ What is the probability that at least one of them is blue?

e)​ What is the chance that no green budgies escape?

Page 77
4)​ Samantha has 9 white socks and 6 black socks of the same kind in a drawer. In
the dark she takes two socks at random, one after the other, out of the drawer.
a)​ Draw the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that she takes out a pair of white socks?

c)​ Calculate the probability that she takes out two socks of a different colour.

d)​ What is the probability that she takes out at least one sock that is black?

e)​ What is the chance that she takes out no black socks?

Page 78
5)​ A bag contains 7 red fruit drops and 3 yellow fruit drops. One fruit drop is taken
out and eaten. A second fruit drop is then taken out and eaten.
a)​ Draw the tree diagram below.

b)​ What is the probability that both fruit drops are red?

c)​ Calculate the probability that one of each colour is eaten.

d)​ What is the probability that at least one yellow fruit drop is eaten?

e)​ What is the chance that no red fruit drops are eaten?

Page 79