MN2032 Exam Commentary - May 2023
MN2032 Exam Commentary - May 2023
Important note
This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this
course in the academic year 2022–2023. The format and structure of the
examination may change in future years, and any such changes will be publicised
on the virtual learning environment (VLE).
Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading references
Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the
subject guide (2018). You should always attempt to use the most recent edition
of any Essential reading textbook, even if the commentary and/or online reading
list and/or subject guide refer to an earlier edition. If different editions of Essential
reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if none are
available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the
relevant section.
General remarks
Learning outcomes
At the end of this course and having completed the Essential reading and Activities,
you should be able to:
• discuss the main techniques and problem-structuring methods used within
management science
• critically appraise the strengths and limitations of these techniques and problem-
structuring methods
• carry out simple exercises using such techniques and problem-structuring
methods themselves (or explain how they should be done)
• commission more advanced exercises.
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MN2032 Management science methods
cope with these features. You are reminded that success in an examination is not
simply a matter of practising all previous examination questions in the hope that
similar questions will recur. Rather, the examiners expect you to have a clear
understanding of the principles underlying both quantitative and qualitative
approaches and to be able to apply them appropriately. This may be in a question
that is similar in form to a previous examination question, or it may be in a question
that contains features that have not been encountered before.
Some candidates appear to adopt the strategy for qualitative questions of simply
memorising significant quantities of text from the subject guide in the hope that
reproducing that text in the examination will lead to success. You are reminded that
the examiners are looking for you to show understanding of the material presented in
the subject guide. This may entail expressing concepts and ideas in your own words.
With regard to qualitative questions in particular, learning an answer to a previously
asked question and then repeating it in the hope that it will contain sufficient points to
address an unfamiliar question, will not be a successful strategy. You need to focus
on the question asked, not hope that an unfocused answer will be rewarded by the
examiners.
You should be clear that for all questions, but especially for quantitative questions,
answers need to be supported by appropriate calculation/written reasoning. For
example, a statement may be given by the examiners in the question and you have
to agree or disagree with the statement. Candidates who give a correct answer, but
without an appropriate reason, will not score highly. A question can be drawn from
any topic in the subject guide. In particular, a question may mix both qualitative and
quantitative topics.
An issue for a number of candidates in the examination in 2023 was a failure to read
the question in sufficient detail and understand the requirements of the examiner. In
particular a number of questions below require the student to copy a table into their
answer and fill in the values required. In doing so typically the required accuracy is
CLEARLY STATED in the details of the table given in the question (e.g. % 2dp, or
4dp, or % integer, or £’m 2dp). Candidates need to be aware therefore that an answer
to the accuracy stated is required.
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
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MN2032 Management science methods
Important note
This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this
course in the academic year 2022–2023. The format and structure of the
examination may change in future years, and any such changes will be publicised
on the virtual learning environment (VLE).
Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading references
Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the
subject guide (2018). You should always attempt to use the most recent edition
of any Essential reading textbook, even if the commentary and/or online reading
list and/or subject guide refer to an earlier edition. If different editions of Essential
reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if none are
available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the
relevant section.
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
Question 2
A company is considering using Markov theory to analyse consumers
switching between three different brands of microwave instant meals. An
analysis of consumer behaviour data has produced the transition matrix shown
below for the probability of switching every two months between brands. The
current market shares for the three brands are 54%, 19% and 27% for brands
A, B and C respectively.
To brand
A B C
A 0.91 0.07 0.02
From
brand B 0.71 0.08 0.21
C 0.63 0.26 0.11
Here, for example, there is a probability of 0.02 that a customer switches from
brand A to brand C.
a) Copy the following table and fill in the market shares for these brands, after
two months, and in the long-run.
b) The company thinks that the transition probabilities seen in part (a) above
are no longer indicative of customer preference. They have commissioned
a market survey of customers which has resulted in the table shown below.
The researchers for this market survey have asked 1000 brand A
customers, 1500 brand B customers and 1500 brand C customers as to their
preference in switching to a different brand. So in the table below 123
customers said they would switch from brand B to brand C.
From brand
A B C
A 75 637 748
To brand B 505 740 52
C 420 123 700
Copy the following table and fill in the market shares for these brands in the
long-run.
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MN2032 Management science methods
b) Here we need to first find the new transition probabilities. We divide each
element in the matrix given in the question by its column sum. However as the
matrix is given in a To-From form we need to transpose it to get the transition
probabilities. These are|:
To brand
A B C
A 0.0750 0.5050 0.4200
From brand B 0.4247 0.4933 0.0820
C 0.4987 0.0347 0.4667
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
Question 3
a) Solve the following linear program graphically using an iso-cost/iso-profit
line. The vertices (corners) of the feasible region should be clearly labelled
A, B, C etc.
Minimise z = 4x – 2y
Subject to 2x + 3y ≤ 12 Constraint 1
x + 3y ≤ 8 Constraint 2
2x – 4y ≥ 1 Constraint 3
x,y ≥ 0
Copy the tables shown below and fill in the values required.
x
y
z
b) If constraint 3 is now removed (so the problem simply has two variables
with Constraint 1 and Constraint 2) then indicate the new feasible region by
labelling its corners using M, N, O etc. Copy the table and fill in the values
required.
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MN2032 Management science methods
x
y
z
For x the opportunity cost (reduced cost) is zero (or undefined) since it is
already > 0.
For constraints 1 and 2 the shadow price is zero as they are slack.
For constraint 3, the shadow price is given by changing the right-hand side by
one (say to 2) and resolving.
So we have:
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
Question 4
You have been given the pairwise comparison matrix for three objectives
shown below.
Objective
1 2 3
1 1 2 6
Objective 2 - 1 7
3 - - 1
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MN2032 Management science methods
Assuming that the judgements made with respect to the three objectives
are reasonably consistent, which course of action (A or B) should be taken?
A B
A 1 3
Objective 1
B - 1
A B
A 1 -
Objective 2
B 4 1
A B
A 1 8
Objective 3
B - 1
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
Column
vector 1.7342
1.1563
0.2181
max 3.0813
CI RI CI/RI
0.0407 0.5800 0.0702
as the ratio CI/RI is less than 0.1 the judgements are consistent.
Row
Normalised matrix A B average
A 0.7500 0.7500 0.7500
B 0.2500 0.2500 0.2500
The calculation for the other two objectives is summarised in the table below
Objective A B
1 0.5550 0.75 0.25
2 0.3727 0.2 0.8
3 0.0723 0.8889 0.1111
0.5551 0.4449
So the choice is A.
Question 5
a) A small shop buys a weekly magazine from a publisher for a unit price of
£5.50 and sells it to members of the public for 7.35. Any magazines left over
at the end of the week are returned to the publisher and for each magazine
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MN2032 Management science methods
returned the shop owner receives £0.45. Past experience indicates that the
demand for this magazine from members of the public is expected to have
a normal distribution with mean 157 copies and variance 83. By making use
of the table associated with the standard normal distribution (with mean
zero and variance one) presented below what would be your advice as to
how many copies the shop owner should order from the publisher?
b) The shop owner also sells cigarettes that she orders from a supplier. She
pays her supplier £6.75 for each packet. Currently she sells 30 packets per
week. She estimates that the costs associated with making an order are
£3.70 and interest rates on the overdraft she uses for cash flow purposes
are currently 7% per annum. Her supplier offers a quantity discount such
that if she were to order 100 packets or more at a time she only pays £6.00
per packet. What advice can you offer her as to a recommended order
quantity and what would be the associated total cost per year? Assume for
this part of the question that there are 52 weeks in a year.
c) An alternative supplier of the cigarettes that she sells has approached her
and offered the packets for £6.00 per packet if she orders 175 packets each
time she orders. The shop owner estimates that the costs associated with
making an order from this alternative supplier would be £2.55. She feels that
she can reject this offer as the order quantity of 175 is higher than the order
quantity of 100 (for the same price of £6.00) as given in part (b) of the
question. Is she correct that she can reject this offer? Give your reasons,
without doing any numeric calculation.
Furthermore, this alternative supplier will reduce the price per packet to
£5.50, but only if she orders 750 packets each time she makes an order.
What advice can you offer her as to a recommended order quantity and what
would be the associated total cost per year?
Assume for this part of the question that there are 52 weeks in a year.
When we have the Normal distribution with mean 157 and variance 83 the
quantity to order (x) is given by (x – 157)/√83 = the value from the N(0,1) with
0.2681 of probability to the left of it. Here the value from tables is –0.62
So (x – 157)/√83 = –0.62
x = 151.4 say 151 copies (or 152)
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
As this EOQ exceeds 100, when the quantity discount applies, it would be
incorrect to cost it with a price of 6.75.
One way of expressing this is to say that this is an ‘invalid EOQ’. Costing it with
a price of 6 is also incorrect as the EOQ should be recalculated, as below.
With the quantity discount the new purchase cost is 6 and the new holding cost
is 0.07(6) = 0.42
This is feasible with respect to the minimum order quantity of 100 so need to
cost the order quantity of 166
Using Q=166 the cost per year is RP + (chQ/2) + (coR/Q)
=1560×6 + (0.42×166/2) + (3.7×1560/166)
= 9429.6
c) With regard to: She feels that she can reject this offer as the order quantity of
175 is higher than the order quantity of 100 (for the same price of £6.00) as
given in part (b) of the question.
Logically she can only reject the offer if she is absolutely sure that it would be
more costly. Without doing any numeric calculation it is not true that she
can reject the offer. This is because the order cost is lower (originally 3.70 for
ordering 100 or more at a time but now 2.55 for ordering 175 at a time) so she
cannot be absolutely sure that the new offer is more costly without doing a
numeric calculation.
As the two alternatives here specify precisely the order quantity we need
only calculate the cost for these two alternatives.
From part (b) of the question ordering 166 at a time had a cost of 9429.6.
Hence ordering 750 at a time is the cheapest option over all order quantities
costed above.
Question 6
An organisation has six branches (A to F) that have been operating for many
years. As a result of the drop in sales over the COVID pandemic it has decided
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that two of these six branches should be closed. Data (given in the table below)
has been collected for these branches with regard to the number of customers
per employee (in a past year) and sales per employee (in a past year). Here the
past year is the financial year April 2021 to March 2022, as audited figures for
the year commencing April 2022 are not yet available.
A 3.4 1.3
B 6 1.3
C 2.3 0.6
D 3.2 0.9
E 0.9 0.5
F 0.8 1
For example, branch E last year had 900 customers per employee and sales per
employee of £5000.
a) Considering the data given above which two branches do you suggest be
closed? Give your reasons.
A
B
C
D
E
F
c) A colleague has suggested that the data used to decide the branches to
close will have been unduly influenced by COVID, the impact of which
branches could not have anticipated. How would you respond to this and
how might this affect your decision in part (b) as to which two branches to
close?
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
a) The two branches with the worse performance for either ratio are F (first ratio)
and E (second ratio), so recommend these should be closed.
So here, A and B are the best performers with respect to the second ratio, B is
the best performer with respect to the first ratio. The DEA diagram is:
A 100
B 100
C 46 44 48 A,B
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MN2032 Management science methods
D 69 67 71 A,B
E 38 36 40 A
F 77 75 79 A
The acceptable range above is the range within which the examiners count an
answer as correct.
So now recommend the two branches with the lowest efficiencies for closure,
so here C and E
c) Here the issue is how COVID may have impacted the last audited year figures
and how that affects any closure decisions. Points that the examiners would
expect to see here include:
• wait for audited figures for the financial year from April 2022
• if we assume that all branches were equally affected by COVID this makes
no difference to any closure decisions
• we could investigate how the branches chosen for closure were affected by
COVID to see if they were more badly affected by COVID than other
branches.
Question 7
a) The payoff table below shows for a company the final year end profits
expected (£m) from four possible choices (A, B, C and D) with respect to
three possible scenarios (S1 to S3 respectively) for the forthcoming year.
S1 S2 S3
A -1 1 3
B 16 -3 18
C 1 14 18
D 2 10 -5
Here, for example, if the company makes choice B (and it can only choose
one of A, B, C or D) and the scenario for the forthcoming year turns out to
be S3 then it makes a profit of £18m. The company estimates that the
probabilities associated with scenarios S1, S2 and S3 occurring are 0.20,
0.35 and 0.45 respectively.
Copy the following table and fill in the choice that should be made under
each criterion and the associated value.
Optimistic
Conservative
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Examiners’ commentaries 2023
Regret
Equally likely
EMV
Copy the following table into your answer and fill in the corresponding
numerical values.
Regret
Choice S1 S2 S3 max regret
A 17 13 15 17.00
B 0 17 0 17.00
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C 15 0 0 15.00
D 14 4 23 23.00
b) This general rule is obviously incorrect. Note that the rule is ‘if there is a unique
choice that gives a positive profit for all scenarios you choose it’.
For example in the current payoff matrix if scenario S1 had probability 1 and so
the other scenarios will never occur (meaning we are restricted to the first
column in the payoff matrix) we will choose B over C.
The fact the rule stated in the question chooses C is irrelevant, it is just a wrong
rule.
c) Here we have:
λ=80 per hour
µ=3600/40=90 per hour
Using these values and the formulae in the subject guide (page 200) the
required table is:
Question 8
Briefly explain each of the following topics from the viewpoint of Operational
Research/Management Science:
a) MIP
b) Value judgements in DEA
c) Project time/project cost trade-off in network analysis
Your answer to this question should be limited to 2 pages for each of the three
parts (so at most 6 pages in total).
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