A

ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF GEODESY AND GEOMATICS

SPECIALIZATION IN GEOMATICS

EVALUATION OF URBAN LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS AND ITS IMPACT ON

AGRICULTURAL LAND: The CASE OF GONDAR TOWN, Ethiopia

A Thesis Submitted to Graduate School of Addis Ababa University in Partial Fulfillment of

the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science

Prepared By
Kindu Mulu

Advisor
Dr. Degefie Tibebe

November 2018

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 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY
ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND ENVIROMENTAL ENGINEERING

EVALUATION OF URBAN LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS AND ITS IMPACT ON

AGRICULTURAL LAND: The CASE OF GONDAR TOWN, ETHIOPIA

By:

Kindu Mulu

November 2018

Approved by board of examiners:

_________________ ____________ ___________

Advisor Signature Date

________________ ____________ ___________

Internal Examiner Signature Date

_______________ _____________ ____________

External Examiner Signature Date

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

First of all, I would like to thank the „Almighty God‟ for giving me patience, wisdom and who
made it possible to begin and finish this work successfully. Next, I would like to express my
heartfelt thanks and profound sense of gratitude to my advisor Dr. Degefie Tibebe for his
constructive comments and guidance from the beginning to the end of the study, without him this
work was difficult to come to an end.

My deepest appreciation also extended to Ato Andenet Ashagrie, Ass.Prf. Beirhan Gesesse and
Ass. Prof.Tulu Besha Badada for giving me the academic direction, technical support as well as
every means to support my study. Their encouragement, insightful comments, and assistance
provided were very great during the thesis period.

Equally, I would like to thank my friends and classmates who have been very cooperative and
supportive with different materials and ideas. Very special thanks go to my office Head Ato
Alemu Bahiru for his financial and moral support during the time I need it most and other
office members also provided me a lot of help related to this study.

Last but not least, I would like to thank my family for their continuous support and
encouragement throughout the study.

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CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... i

LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... ii

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .................................................................................... iii

ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. vi

CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................... 1

1.INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 1

1.1.Statement of the Problem……………………………………………………………. ..... ……4

1.2. Objectives of the Study... .... ………………………………………………………………….5

1.3. General Objective .................................................................................................................... 5

1.4 Specific objectives ................................................................................................................... 5

1.5. Research Questions…………………………………………………………………. .... …….6

1.6. Significance of the Study………………………………………………………………. ........ 6

1.7. Scope of the Study…………………………………………………………………… ........... 6

1.8. Limitation of the Study……..…………...….………………….……………...……...………7

1.9 Organization of the Thesis……………………………………………………………………7

CHAPTER TWO .......................................................................................................................... 8

LITERATURE REVIEW…………...…………………………………………………………..8

2.1. Urban Sprawl Concept………………………………………………………………. ............ 8

2.1.2. Urban Landscape Dynamics Patterns ................................................................................... 9

2.1.3 Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics …………….……………………….……………..9

2.1.4 Global Trends in Urban Landscape Dynamics……………………………….……………9

2.1.5 Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Africa………………………………………… 11

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2.1.6 Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Ethiopia …….…………….…………………...14

2.1.7. Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Gondar Town….……...………………………15

2.1.8. Causes of Urban Landscape Dynamics...……………..……….….…….……..……....….17

2.1.9. Effects of urban landscape dynamics on agricultural activities……...…....……….….….19

2.1.10. Emperical Studies .............................................................................................................. 20

2.1.11. Conceptual Framework ..................................................................................................... 21

CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................... 23

RESEARCH MATERIALS AND METHODS ........................................................................ 23

3.1. Description of the Study Area………………………………………………...………......... 23

3.2 Location and Topography of the Study Area…..……...……………………………………..23

3.3. Population of the Study Area…………………………………..…………….…….……..…24

3.4. Climatic condition…………….…………………………………………...………..…….…24

3.5. Materials…………………………………………….……………..………………….. ....... 25

3.5.1. Data Sources and types ....................................................................................................... 25

3.5.2. Soft ware‟s and Instruments................................................................................................ 25

3.5.3 Methodology…..……………………………………………..…………….……….……...25

3.5.4 Research design…………………………………………………………………………..26

3.5.5 Site Reconnaissance…………………………………..…………………….……..………26

3.5.7 Methods of Data Analysis………………………………………………………..………...28

3.5.8 Methods of Data Processing…………….…………….………………………….……….28

3.5.9 Acquiring of Satellite images…………………….…………………….……….………28

3.5.10 Image Enhancement and Visual Interpretation…..…....………..…..….…………..……..29

3.5.11 Sub setting/Clipping of AIO/Area of interest…………..….……..…………………...….30

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3.5.12 Training Samples/Signature Editor………………..………………...….…..…...……..…30

3.5.13. Image Classification.......................................................................................................... 31

3.5.14. Accuracy Assessment ..................................................................................................... 322

3.5.15. Land Use/Land Cover Description ................................................................................. 333

CHAPTER FOUR……………………………………………………...……….……….……34

RESULTS AND DISSCUSION……………………………………………….……….…….34

4.1 Introduction……...………………………………………………………………………….34

4.2 Spatio-temporal urban landscape dynamics between 1985 and 2017 ……………..….….…34

4.3 Accuracy Assessment of the Classification ……………………………………....…………40

4.4 Analysis of the Rates and Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics…………………………..41

4.5 Rate and Magnitude of Built up Area Expansion (1985-2017)………….….……….………44

4.6. Built up Proportion in the Reclassified Image of Gondar town …………..….…...….……..45

4.7 Change detection analysis …………………………………………………………………47

CHAPTER FIVE……………………………………………………………………………….52

CONCULUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS……………..……………….…………….52

5.1 CONCULUSION………………………………………………………………………….…52

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS……………………………………………………………………53

References………………………………………………………..……………....54

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Urbanization trends by major regions (1950-2050)……....…...…….…….……....…..11

Table 2.2 Percentage of African Population Residing in Urban Areas by Region….............…..14

Table 3.1 Characteristics of satellite image.........................................................................…...29

Table 3.2 Land use/land cover classes „description…………………………………………...…33

Table4.1. Areas of land use classes and spatio-temporal dynamics occurred………….………..35

Table 4.2Producer's and User's accuracy for individual land-use/land cover classes………..….41

Table 4.3 Overall accuracy and Kappa (K^) statistics for the classifications………….....……..41

Table 4.4 Amounts of Dynamics Occurred in Land Use / Land cover Classes for Three Time
Periods of 1985, 2000 and 2017……………………..…………………………………………..42

Table 4.5 Rates and trends of Dynamics occurred in Land Use/Land cover Classes for Three
Time Periods of 1985, 2000 and 2017……..…………………………………………………….42

Table 4.6 Rate and Magnitude Built-up Area Expansion (1985-2017)……….…………………44

Table 4.7 Built and non-built-up areas between1985 to 2017……………………………….…..45

Table 4.8: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 1985 to 2000…….……………..48
Table 4.9: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 2000 to 2017…….….…………….49
Table 4.10: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 1985 to 2017…….….…………..50
Table 4.11: Land-use/Land-cover class conversion to Built-up area in hectares….….………..51

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Conceptual framework……………….………..…………..…….………….………..21

Figure 3.1 Location map of the study area……………………………………...……………….24

Figure 3.2 Methodology of flow chart…………………………………………………………...27

Figure 4.1 Land use/land cover map of 1985……………………………..…….……..………..36

Figure 4.2 Land use /land cover map of 2000……………………………………..…………….38

Figure 4.3 Land use/land cover map of 2017……………………………………..……..………39

Figure 4.4 Built up area Expansion (1985, 2000 and 2017)…………………………………….44

Figure 4.5 Built-up and Non built up areas for 1985, 2000 and 2017………………….……….46

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ABBREVIATIONS

ERDAS Earth Resources Data Analysis System

ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper

FUPI Federal Urban Planning Institute

GCP Ground Control Points

GIS Geographic Information System

GLCF Global Land Cover Facilities

GPS Global Positioning System

Ha Hectare

LULC Land Use Land Cover Change

MLC Maximum Likelihood Classifier

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

RS Remote Sensing

TM Thematic Mapper

UN United Nation

UTM Universal Transverse

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 ABSTRACT
Rapid urbanization is a trend seen across the developing world, with the fastest rates of growth
seen in Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, Ethiopia like other African countries has experienced
rapid expansion of urbanization due to economic development, industrialization, massive
migrations as well as population growth. This expansion particularly unplanned consumed a
huge amount of arable land in the urban milieu and in its surrounding areas. This is the case of
Gondar town and its surrounding. Urban landscape dynamic is one of the problems in developing
countries. Evaluating and understanding of urban landscape dynamics problems are important for
appropriate planning and management of urban environment. This study focused on evaluating
urban landscape dynamics and its effect on agricultural land in Gondar town by using Remote
Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). Multi-spectral and multi-temporal
Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) image of 1985, Landsat ETM (Enhanced Thematic Mapper)
image 2000 and Landsat OLI (Operational Land Imager) image of 2017 at the resolution of 30 m
have been used to study the dynamics of urban expansion and its impact on agricultural land.
The supervised classification algorithm was employed to identify the major land use/land cover
types in the study area. Five types of land cover were identified: water bodies, vegetation, built
up area, agricultural lands and bare lands. Results indicated that the study area has undergone a
tremendous change in urban growth and pattern during the study period. Built-up area expanded
from 567 ha in 1985, to 1472 ha in 2000 and further expands to 3773.79 ha in 2017, while
agricultural areas decreased from 15,524 ha to 15, 1116 ha and 12297 ha during the same period.
The increase of built up area is mainly at the expense of other land uses. So as, to alleviate the
rapid population growth of the city, it is better to minimize rural-urban migration by creating
conducive environment in rural areas. Instead of new housing development on agricultural land,
renewal of older buildings and infill development of high rise buildings to meet the demands and
needs of the increasing number of population in the town. In addition, construction of
condominium house could be another solution. Finally, the use of remote sensing needs to be
introduced for developers in order to reducing unplanned urban sprawls and the associated loss
of agricultural lands.

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 CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

Studies indicate that half of the world population is living in urban areas (UNFPA, 2012) and
this percentage will continue to grow in the coming years. The increasing urbanization is caused
by a growing population and the tendency of people to move to the cities. The clustering of
people in urban areas affects the landscape, the ecology of an area, travel patterns, resource
consumption and water discharge (Tewolde, 2011). For local governments it is interesting to
have exact information about the extent of the urban area (how is the land currently used) and the
urban growth direction. This kind of information is needed for the urban planning of fast
changing regions, to make sustainable and smart decisions.

Even though it is quite difficult to recognize urban sprawl in totality, good ways of
understanding its complexity are land use/land cover change analyses and urban growth pattern
recognition (Sudhira, 2004).Several studies such as (Chang et al. 2002; Clarek et al .1998;
Herold et al. 2003; Sudhira et al. 2004; Thomas et al. 2003) show that urbanization is increasing
in both the developed and developing countries. However, rapid urbanization is a characteristic
of developing countries due to high population growth. Studies (Barnes et al. 2001; Chen et
al.2000; Christiansen et al. 2011; Ewin et al. 1997; Harries et al.2002; Masek.etal. 2000) also
show that the expansion of cities and towns, and the associated problems of unemployment,
poverty, inadequate health, poor sanitation, urban slums and environmental degradation create
unmanageable challenge in many developing countries.

Unchecked urbanization is often referred as sprawl which poses serious problems in

infrastructure planning and implementation that leads to unforeseen consequences. Although
both developing and developed countries have common urbanization processes, formerly the
problem of urban sprawl was restricted to developed countries. The reason for urban sprawl for
developed countries was mainly a result of higher incomes that make people preferring to live in
the outskirts of the city, with open spaces at reasonable distances from cities. For developing
countries sprawl is largely a result of necessity- people move to the city in search of better
employment and opportunity which leads to an increase in size well beyond the limits of the city
(Haregewoin, 2005).

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Africa is the world‟s second-largest and second-most populous continent with a population of 1.2
billion people. Recently, African urbanization is characterized by rapid and uncontrolled urban
growth. This has brought various socio-economic and environmental problems. In addition, the
mass exodus to cities has already worsened the problems of urban poverty, food insecurity,
shortage of housing and basic services, unemployment, ethnic tensions and violence, substance
abuse, crime and social disintegrations. This leaves it with an under-developed continent (Jaglo,
2000).
The majority 62.1 percent of the African population is still rural, urban growth rates at nearly 4
percent per year are the most rapid in the world, and nearly twice the global average (United
Nations Population Division 2001).
Growth rates are predicted to average 3.5 percent per year over the next 15 years, meaning that
Africa‟s share of the world‟s urban population will increase from 10 to 17 percent between 2000
and 2015(United-Nations, 2001).
According to the United Nation World Population Prospects, if current demographic trends
persist, the population will increase to 1.4 billion in 2025 and 2.47 billion in 2050.Based on the
projected population by the year 2050 and the previous population, the population of Africa is
estimated to reach 1.6 billion people in the year 2030. As a result, it still remains the second most
populous continent in the world, but it makes up around 15% of the entire world.
As a result, many African cities have an increasing number of overcrowded, informal
settlements, or „shanty towns‟, characterized by inadequate housing and poor provision of
infrastructure such as roads, street lights, water supplies, sanitation and waste management
services. Thus, urbanization in Africa has brought many negative impacts both on the urban as
well as on the peri-urban farm communities throughout the continent.
Ethiopia is one of the least urbanized countries in the world. It has only 20.4% of its population
living in urban centers (CIA, 2017). However, given the 2.7% total annual population growth
rate, high rate of in-migration to towns, and increase in the number of urban centers, the rate of
urbanization is increasing at a rate of 4.64%(CIA,2015-20 est). “Experience over the last couple
of decades in Ethiopia has shown that as human numbers increased, the population carrying
capacity of the environment decreased. A high population growth rate induces increased demand
for resources and the rate at which these resources are exploited. In Ethiopia, where technology
has not kept pace with the demands for greater productivity, environmentally harmful and

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economically counter-productive methods of exploiting land and associated resources ( forests,
animal resources, etc.) are resorted to in order to meet immediate needs. As a consequence of
this, climatic conditions are becoming erratic and soil quality is declining at an alarming rate”
(Aynalem, 2014).
As the cities expand, the main zone of direct impact is the peri-urban area (Nsiah-Gyabaah,
2000), which are characterized by diverse uses of land, that often vary in relation to their
functional linkages to urban and rural sectors. Aguilar and Ward (2003), notes that peri-urban
areas are transitional in nature and they become progressively more agriculture in orientation as
one recedes from the urban center to the rural areas due to diverse land uses.
According to Olima (2003), rapid urban population growth goes with a lack of equivalent
growth in urban land supply i.e. land is fixed in supply and does not increase with the increasing
population. The pressure exerted by this increasing population tends to deprive other sectors of
the needed land. Agricultural lands are the most affected by this rapid urbanization, as other land
uses such as residential and commercial tend to dominate agricultural lands in competition for
more space. As noted by Owusu and Agyei (2007), a key challenge of the urbanization process is
the rapid conversion of large amount of prime agricultural land to urban land use (mainly
residential, industrial, and infrastructural construction) in the urban periphery.
Due to the dynamic urban growth trends, town administrations and planners are faced with
difficulties to supply basic amenities like sanitation, treated water supply, primary health center,
etc., as planners were unable to visualize such growth during planning, policy and decision-
making. These difficulties are caused by spontaneously construction of unplanned informal
houses in and beyond the administrative boundaries of towns and cities. Moreover, the
implications of these profound changes cause a change in land use patterns. So, this highly
dynamic urban growth makes urgent town planning inevitable.
The conventional method of mapping urban growth is the use of ground survey and aerial
photographs which is costly and slow process to get the necessary information such as the
direction where urban growth occurs and the level of services needed on the new developmental
sites. Maintaining up-to-date urban land cover information is both costly and time-consuming
using traditional field and air photo methods. Remote sensing technology provides an efficient
and less-expensive way for urban growth mapping (Hu. 2010).

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Therefore mapping urban sprawl helps to identify areas where environmental and natural
resources are critically threatened and to suggest likely future directions and patterns of
sprawling growth (Simmons). The physical expressions and patterns of sprawl on landscapes can
be detected, mapped, and analyzed using remote sensing and geographic information system
(GIS) techniques in conjunction with the secondary and ground truth data (Barnes, 2001).

1.1. Statement of the Problem

Urban sprawl can be defined as the expansion of human settlements to accommodate a growing
population while depleting natural resources (Pathan, 1989). Urban sprawl creates inefficient use
of land resources and large-scale encroachment on agricultural land. To this end, Sudhira et al.,
(2004) state that understanding the patterns of urban sprawl can help with natural resource
planning, natural resource utilization, and the provision of infrastructure facilities. The most
pressing problem of sprawl is the substantial loss of fertile agricultural land around many towns
because of urban developments.(Ewing, 1997)Argues that suburbanization as we know it is not
the issue, but rather the wasteful form of development known as sprawl with which many towns
have a problem. As the urban built expands, it impose a number of problems on the inhabitants,
the surrounding environment and population.
Nechyba et al (2004, 186) list a plethora of ills related to sprawl: the loss of open space, urban
decay, unsightly strip mall developments, the loss of a sense of community, patchwork housing
developments in the midst of agricultural land, increasing reliance on the automobile, the
separation of residential and work locations, and the spreading of urbanized developments across
the landscape. "Sprawl has become the metaphor of choice for the shortcomings of the suburbs
and the frustrations of central cities (Galster et al., 2001, 681)."
Recently, in Gondar town due to high demand of land for residential, commercial and other
development activities the town administration annexed twelve surrounding rural kebeles to
Gondar town. The communities of these rural kebels are dominantly depends on agriculture.
These created land use conflict in the fringe of the urban area where there are competing
demands on land for food production, industrial crops, urban expansion and industrial
development. Land is limited resource, and it is under a great pressure due to the urban
expansion. The main focus of this study which is Gondar town and the nearby twelve rural
kebels are-scene of intense competition between housing and agricultural land uses.

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Formal and informal settlements are stretching out horizontally from the central town in all
directions. Land is ineffectively used; new developments are planned on virgin land usually
leapfrogging from cores. Generally, as pointed by (Haregewoin, 2005), sprawl and misuse of
land in Ethiopia is the result of population pressure (both from natural births and migration),
poor land policies, lease system and planning and regional imbalance. Action is therefore needed
to provide for immediate needs of the population while trying for solutions to overcome
mismanagement of land and further horizontal expansion with minimum financial expenditure
(Haregewoin, 2005).
The building of houses, construction of roads, highways and train ways, management of the
urban environment, provision of public service, preservation of sensitive lands, minimizing the
impact of the urban encroachment and other many issues need exact information. So in this
research, it was intended to study the urban landscape dynamics and its impact on agricultural
land that occurred in Gondar town by comparing the land use changes occurred for the study
years 1985,2000 and 2017. For this purpose, first multi-temporal Remote Sensing and GIS data
sets were used to map the urban landscape dynamics, because one of the prerequisite for
understanding urban landscape dynamics is successful land use change detection. To work out
the change detection Land sat satellite imageries of three time periods were used.
Therefore, consideration and careful assessment are required for monitoring and planning land
management, urban development and decision making. Although specific growth patterns of the
town are important to planners, in this paper it would show that the importance of GIS and RS on
urban sprawl identification and analysis.

1.2. Objectives of the Study

1.3. General Objective

The general objective of this study was to evaluate urban landscape dynamics and its effect on
agricultural land of Gondar town by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques.

1.4. Specific objectives

 To investigate and quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban landscape in and

around Gondar town since 1985;
 Mapping horizontal expansion of the study area at different time periods

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  To detect the trends and rates of urban land scape dynamics; and
 To analyze the major effects of urban landscape dynamics on agricultural lands present
in peri-urban areas of Gondar town during the study period

1.5. Research Questions

1. How urban landscape dynamics is taking place in the study area based on characteristics of
new urban growth?

2. How to explain the extent and rate of urban landscape dynamics Gondar town?

3. How to map the horizontal expansion of in Gondar town?

4. What are the effects of urban landscape dynamics on agricultural land?

1.6. Significance of the Study

One of the major impacts of urban sprawl is a shrinking of cultivated land, through the
development of infrastructures and various development projects. The study of this kind reveals
the type, extent and nature of urban landscape dynamics taking place in a region and the drivers
responsible for the growth. This would help developers and town planners to project growth
patterns and facilitate various infrastructure facilities. The results of this study could provide
information relevant to contribute in the environmental management plans and improves urban
planning issues. It is also expected to provide information on the status and dynamics of the
urban land use of the area and the use of remotely sensed satellite imagery for such analysis for
planners.

1.7. Scope of the Study

This study has been carried out to assess and analyze urban sprawl status in Gondar town.
Currently, most of the towns of the country have little attention in terms of physical expansion
and dynamic population growth which create a burden on basic supply of public services and
infrastructural developments. Given the fact of current and future unmanageable urban growth
problems, there is a need of decision making and planning to maintain at least some control of
urban expansion. This is not possible without up-to-date information about various aspects in the

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urban areas. Remote sensing and GIS techniques can help to get up-to-date information of the
urban expansion with frequent coverage and low cost. Therefore, it is intended to investigate the
level of urban landscape dynamics and its effect on agricultural land in the study area between
1985, 2000 and 2017 years.

1.8. Limitation of the Study

It is often not uncommon for a study to have some sort of limitation/s during its course of
undertaking. One limitation of my research lies in the use of Landsat imageries with course
spatial resolution of 30m for urban - land use/land cover classification due to expensiveness and
unavailability of other imageries with the finest resolution like Quick Bird which is ideal for
urban features distinction. Therefore, the difficulty to discern each land use/land cover category
may result in misclassification of one land use/land cover into another. In order to overcome this
problem, field data collection were undertook to verify actual land use/land cover which in turn
incurred me both time and energy expenditure.

1.9 Organization of the Thesis

The research paper is organized into five major chapters. The first chapter contains the
introduction objective and significance of the study in which clear information to the readers has
been provided. This part highlights the global status, prospects and problems of urban landscape
dynamics. The second chapter is devoted to different worlds‟ approaches, methods and
mechanisms of urban landscape dynamics studies, which have assisted the researcher to produce
different arguments on the selected topic. Here the concept, both global and national trends,
causes and impacts of urban landscape dynamics have been stated in brief. The third chapter
starts with the description of the study area followed by the methods employed including data
types and sources, software and instruments utilized to carry out the research. In this part, image
classification algorithms and data analysis techniques are briefly described. The forth chapter is
dedicated to the results and discussion components of the thesis. Results from classification of
images, the analyses of LULC change and its impact on agricultural land have been
encompassed in this chapter part. This chapter is concluded with the discussion, which focuses on
comparison of results obtained with existing theories and practices. The conclusion and
recommendations are the fifth and the last chapter of the study. These have presented conclusive
remarks based on the findings and the researcher‟s suggestions pertaining to the mechanisms of

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checking urban landscape dynamics effects on the peri-urban green agro-rural setup of the study
area.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Urban Sprawl Concept

Urban sprawl is often difficult to estimate because it can occur slowly over time. Wilson, 2003
argues that without a universal definition of sprawl it is extremely difficult to model. Not all
urban growth is considered sprawl because what is sprawl to some may not be to others.
"Creating an urban growth model instead of an urban sprawl model allows us to quantify the
amount of land that has changed to urban uses, and lets the user decide what he or she considers
to be urban sprawl" (Wilson et al., 2003). Urban sprawl is characterized by leapfrog land use
patterns, strip commercial development along highways, and very low-density single-use
developments, all of which occur over a relatively short period of time (Ewing, 1997). Sprawl is
urbanization that takes place in either a radial direction around a well-established city or linearly
along the highways over a given period of time (Sudhira et al., 2004). Clearly, radial and linear
are just two types of map patterns that sprawl can take. Sudhira et al. (2004) state that to
understand the complexity of urban sprawl, land use change analyses and urban growth pattern
recognition must be determined.
Throughout the literature, there is ambiguity on the distinction between urban growth and urban
sprawl except to suggest that urban sprawl is a type of urban growth. Some sources have been
defined in terms of associated causes: urban sprawl is generally believed to result from poorly
planned, large-scale new residential, commercial and industrial developments in areas not
previously used for urban purposes (Zhange, 2001). However, there is one overriding theme in
the recognition of urban sprawl: a spatial-temporal signature unique to the phenomenon. Urban
sprawl can be described as low-density development occurring on the edge or outside of a
municipal area that does not follow a specific growth pattern (Tallinn, 2002). As the word
‟sprawl‟ is a multidimensional phenomenon, it has caused much confusion. Possible
mathematical regressions attempting to explain sprawl from land use perspectives such as the
degree of compactness did not generate statistically significant results (Wassmer, 2005) and

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hence the difficulty to mathematically define the term. The Vermont Forum on Sprawl defines
sprawl as: dispersed development outside of compact urban and village centers along highways
and in rural countryside (web page, 2011). In her report, Revisiting Sprawl: Lessons from the
Past, Burgess, (1998) defined sprawl as "...expanding physical development, at decreasing
densities, in metropolitan regions, where the spatial growth exceeds population growth".

2.1.2. Urban Landscape Dynamics Patterns

Urban growth takes place either in radial direction around the core of the city/town or linearly
along the highways. The form of development along highways, or surrounding the city and in
rural countryside is often referred as urban sprawl (Theobald, 2001). The spatial development of
urban sprawl can be divided in to three basic forms (Barnes et al., 2001).
Linear Growth: This type of dynamics is characteristic by exploitative use of land for housing
purpose along the margins of existing urban areas. This type of expansion is always supported by
services like water, power and roads.
Cluster Growth: The development of this type of growth is following major road corridors
outward from the urban centers. Lands adjacent to the major roads and highway are developed
but lands with some distant from the roads and highway remain undeveloped.
Leapfrog Growth: This development of expansion is sporadic or an irregular pattern which
consists of patches of developed land that is widely separated. It is more expensive to give
services such as water, power and roads for this form of development.

2.1.3. Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics

2.1.4. Global Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics

As population increases, urban sprawl on a global scale is becoming more apparent than ever.
Increases in population often lead to increases in development, which has a direct influence on
agricultural land conversion. (Masser, 2003) States that urban growth is inevitable over the next
two decades and that most of this growth will take place in less developed countries. Globally
more people live in urban areas than rural areas, with 54 percent of world‟s population residing
in urban areas in 2014.In 1950, 30 percent of the world‟s population was urban, and by 2050, 66
percent of the world‟s population is projected to be urban. Today the most urbanized regions
include Northern-America (82 percent living in urban areas in 2014), Latin America and the

9
Caribbean (80 percent), and Europe (73 percent). In contrast, Africa and Asia remain mostly
rural, with 40 and 48 percent of their respective populations living in urban areas. All regions are
expected to urbanize further over the coming decades. Africa and Asia are urbanizing faster than
the other regions and are projected to become 56 and 64 percent urban respectively, by 2050.
The rural population of the world has grown slowly since 1950 and is expected to reach its peak
in a few years. The global rural population is now close to 3.4 billion and is expected to decline
to 3.2 billion by 2050. Africa and Asia are home to nearly 90 percent of the world‟s rural
population. India has the largest rural population (857 million), followed by China (635 million).
(UN World urbanization prospects 2014 revision).The urban population of the world has grown
rapidly since 1950, from 746 million to 3.9 billion in 2014.Asia despite its lower level of
urbanization, is home to 53 percent of the world‟s urban population, followed by Europe (14
percent) and Latin America and the Caribbean (13 percent).Continuing population growth and
urbanization are projected to add 2.5 billion people to the world‟s urban population by 2050,
with nearly 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa. Just three countries India,
China and Nigeria together are expected to account for 37 percent of the projected growth of the
world‟s urban population between 2014 and 2050. India is projected to add 404 million urban
dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million. Close to half the world‟s urban dwellers
reside in relatively small settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants, while only around one in
eight live in the 28 mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. Tokyo is the world‟s
largest city with agglomeration of 38 inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai
with 23 million, and Mexico City, Mumbai and São Paulo, each with around 21 million
inhabitants. By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 mega-cities with more than 10 million
inhabitants. Tokyo is projected to remain the world‟s largest city in 2030 with 37 million
inhabitants, followed closely by Delhi where the population is projected to rise swiftly to 30
million. Several decades ago most of the world‟s largest urban agglomerations were found in the
more developed regions, but today‟s large cities are concentrated in the global south. The fastest
growing urban agglomerations are medium-sized cities and cities with less than 1 million
inhabitants located in Asia and Africa.
Some cities have experienced a population decline in recent years. Most of these are located in
low-fertility countries of Asia and Europe where the overall population is stagnant or declining.
Economic contraction and natural disasters have contributed to population losses in some cities

10
as well. Nevertheless, rapid and unplanned urban growth threatens sustainable development
when the necessary infrastructure is not developed or when policies are not implemented to
ensure that the benefits of city life are equitably shared. Today, despite the comparative
advantage of cities, urban areas are more unequal than rural areas and hundreds of millions of the
world‟s urban poor live in sub-standard conditions. In some cities, unplanned or inadequately
managed urban expansion leads to rapid sprawl, pollution, and environmental degradation,
together with unsustainable production and consumption patterns.
As the world continues to urbanize, sustainable development challenges will be increasingly
concentrated in cities, particularly in lower-middle- income countries where the pace of
urbanization is fastest. Integrated policies to improve the lives of both urban and rural dwellers
are needed.

Table 2.1 Urbanization trends by major regions (1950-2050)

Major region Percentage urban

1950 1970 2014 2030 2050
Africa 14.4 23.5 40.0 47.7 56.0

Asia 17.5 23.5 47.5 55.5 64.4

Europe 51.3 62.8 73.4 77.4 82.2

Latin America and the 41.4 57.1 79.5 83.4 86.0

Caribbean
Northern America 63.9 73.8 81.5 85.8 87.3

Oceania 62.4 71.2 70.8 71.4 74.0

Source: UN 2014

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2.1.5 Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Africa
Africa, along with Asia, is the epicenter of global urbanization. It is undergoing a rapid urban
transition and is set to be the fastest urbanizing region in the coming decades. In 1990 only a
third of Africa‟s population was urban (31 per cent) by 2035, the figure is projected to reach 49
percent.

Urbanization is a mega-trend with profound implications for Africa‟s growth and transformation.
Africa is currently the least urbanized continent, but its urbanization rate of 3.5 percent per year
is the fastest in the world. The rate and scale of urbanization is reshaping not only the
demographic profile of the continent but also economic, environmental and social outcomes. By
2035 about half of Africa‟s population will be living in urban areas, presenting considerable
demands for employment, services and infrastructure, but creating advantages for economic
growth. The urban transition is also taking place as the continent faces a demographic shift and a
burgeoning youth population becoming located in urban areas.
Africa‟s rapid urban growth is both an opportunity and a challenge. While the prevailing
narrative has focused largely on the negative externalities of urbanization of Africa, there is now
an increasing recognition of its potential to drive growth and transformation. African leaders
clearly affirmed the need to harness the potential of urbanization for structural transformation
through the Common African Position at the Third United Nations Conference on Housing and
Sustainable Urban Development (HABITAT-III) adopted in 2016. The New Urban Agenda
adopted at HABITAT-III and a dedicated Sustainable Development Goal on cities and human
settlements in 2015 attest to urbanization‟s importance.
History and experience demonstrate that urbanization is closely linked to economic growth and
the transformation of economies towards productive sectors, namely industry and services.
Available evidence suggests that urban and industrial developments in Africa are disconnected,
resulting in lost opportunities for job creation and improved well-being. It is also not surprising
that Africa‟s cities are crippled by severe infrastructure and service gaps and unable to generate
employment at the level and scale required to meet ever increasing demands, especially for
youth.
Reconnecting urban and industrial development in Africa through deliberate policies, strategies
and investments is a priority for the sustainability of both cities and industries. Cities require
better performing industrialization and industrialization requires better functioning cities. At the

12
same time, industrialization and urbanization face common challenges. Thus, the core message
of the report is that deliberate efforts are needed to link urban and industrial development in the
context of national development planning. (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
2017).
A first step in this is to recognize urbanization as an inevitable mega trend of considerable
scale and speed, with cities playing a critical role in structural transformation, and especially in
industrialization. Also important is to undo prevailing myths on the urban trajectory, including
the assumption that curtailing rural to urban migration will reduce urban growth and that the
urban agenda is primarily a social one. In reality, natural growth is the primary driver of urban
growth while urbanization is at the core of economic development.
Urbanization in many African countries has not been driven by improving agricultural
productivity. Indeed, most countries are urbanizing rapidly amid declining or stagnant industrial
output and low agricultural productivity. In resource-rich countries, natural resource exports and
related spending, largely on non-traded services, appear to be driving urban growth, generating
“consumption cities.”
Africa‟s target of structural transformation is to shift labor out of low-productivity agriculture
into higher-productivity manufacturing and modern services. But the long-run trend of this shift
has been dominated by the informal sector often services where jobs remain concentrated, many
in urban areas, with detrimental effects for economy wide productivity.
African cities thus face low productivity, tepid job creation, high informality, huge infrastructure
and service gaps, weak linkages with rural areas, high levels of informality, increasing
inequalities, growing environmental damage and vulnerability to climate change and weak
institutional systems and capacities. Unless resolved, these impediments will undermine Africa‟s
urban potential for structural transformation.
The challenge confronting Africa is thus to accelerate structural transformation by harnessing the
rapid urban transition to promote economic diversification, with a special focus on
industrialization that will create jobs, enhance access to basic services and reduce inequality and
poverty.
The links between urbanization and industrialization have generally been weak or absent in
Africa, underlining the urgent need to connect urban and industrial development given their
interdependence and growth impacts.

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Table 2.2 Percentage of African Population Residing in Urban Areas by Region

Region 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015* 2020* 2025*

Africa 33.9 37.3 40.7 44.0 47.4 50.7 53.9 57.1

Eastern 21.8 25.4 29.0 32.5 36.0 39.6 43.2 46.8

Central 37.8 41.6 45.6 49.5 53.5 57.0 60.4 63.6

Northern 44.6 47.9 51.2 54.5 57.7 60.7 63.6 66.3

Southern 54.9 58.2 61.3 64.2 66.8 69.3 71.6 73.8

Western 32.5 36.1 39.8 43.6 47.3 51.0 54.6 58.0

Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, (2006)

2.1.6 Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is the second most populous country in the whole of Africa exceeded only by Nigeria.
The distribution of the total population varies by place of residence. About 80 percent of the total
population in the country is found in rural areas, while the remaining 20.4 percent is living in
urban areas. Urban population growth in Ethiopia is estimated at 6%, a much higher figure
compared to other African countries. Serious social problems still prevail in large cities.
The country is one of the least urbanized areas in the third world. Its economy almost entirely
depends on agriculture, although production and food provision is low due to bad weather
conditions and lack of effective technology. Poverty prevents the country from using high tech
and non-seasonal means of production. In addition, almost 80 percent of the populations practice
only agriculture and animal rearing as a means to sustain them.
Another aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials or
polarization in the level of urbanization. Like most developing countries, serious rural to urban
migration is a common phenomenon. Tribal wars and conflicts are common phenomena driving
people from their villages. Slums are emerging in different parts of cities, especially the capital,
and are the only choices for the majority of the city dwellers that are poor. Additional population
in rich countries is the demand for larger suburban lots. With rise in household incomes, people
who move into the suburbs are motivated to a significant degree by the desire for more living

14
space. Between 1950 and 1980 one-half of the increased sub-urbanization in America can be
explained by people getting richer (Kahn, 2003). Compared to people who live in cities
suburbanites live in larger houses on larger lots and use automobiles more often.
Developed countries like the USA also invest substantial amounts of money on road and
transport infrastructures encouraging the use of private cars. The high correlation between using
automobiles and living in low-density edge cities may not prove that cars caused sprawl but is an
indication that the two strongly complement each other. Both rising incomes and automobile
ownership were therefore necessary conditions. Most people do not want to live in the cities -
they choose to move out. Thus, sprawl in developed countries is usually a matter of preference.
In the developed world, the movements of people from rural area of the country to more heavily
populated cities and towns have been reversed. In contrast, for developing countries sprawl is
largely a result of necessity- people move to the city in search of better employment and
opportunities (Menon, 2001).
They could be driven out of their farmlands for different reasons such as bad weather conditions,
poor harvest or simply because they do not have the means of income. Increased urban
population leads to an increase in size well beyond the limits of the city. When the cities are not
expanding, the people are forced to live in informal settlements with increased congestion and
density (higher number of people per household and no basic services).

2.1.7. Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics in Gondar Town

Urbanization is one of the most important anthropogenic activities that create significant and
extensive environmental implications at both local and global scales (Herold et al., 2003).
Inevitably, population growth leads to a rapid expansion of urban growth, causing changes in
land use land cover in many metropolitan areas. The rate of such change is obvious in
developing countries with high population growth rates like Ethiopia. These uncontrollable urban
changes around the Ethiopian towns can intensify a large number of social and physical
problems, in addition to the agricultural lands changed (Masek. etal . 2000). Due to the effects of
continued growth and expansion of cities, rural communities residing in the outlying areas have
been subjected to increasing eviction and adverse effects such as pollution, environmental, social
and cultural disturbances. The measures are being taken to manage the undesired effects, though
not adequate. In this respect one of the typical manifestations of the undesired effects of

15
urbanization is informal and/or illegal ownership of land and housing which are particularly
intensified in the peripheral areas. Rapid urban development and increasing land use changes due
to increasing population and economic growth is being witnessed of in Ethiopia and other
developing countries (Masser; 2003). The measurement and monitoring of these land use
changes are crucial to understand land use cover dynamics over different spatial and temporal
time scales for effective land management (Cerneal, 1995). Gondar is one of the fast growing
urban center‟s‟ in the Amhara regional state (Gondar town municipality office). Hence the
expansion of the town is becoming irregular, uncontrolled and often resulting in creation of
fragmented development. The town‟s growing industry, manufacturing sector, service and its
centrality to North Gondar Administration has led to increased investments and has resulted in
high-speed economic and social development. Gondar, being one of the towns in the developing
countries has never been in a position to escape the forgoing undesired realities of rapid
urbanization. Urban planning implementation principles and guidelines fundamental to ensure
healthy urban growth have never been put in place (Gondar town municipality office).
Gondar is characterized by low density and low-rise development. Like any third world town,
leap frogging and sporadic developments are common in Gondar town. There has not been
institutional and legal framework capable of managing informalities in trade and physical
developments. Excessive alteration of land use has been taking place without formal procedures,
and this could lead to imbalance between land uses, which gave Gondar an image of much of a
town of stores (Gondar town municipality office).
The importance of putting in place planning principles to be referred to in the planning process is
not well recognized. This could give way to haphazard planning and subsequent ineffective
implementation.
Regarding settlement development two basic processes are identified in Gondar. The first step
includes the development of rural settlements and/or informal and illegal land occupation, which
usually starts, with the establishment of small rural/semi-rural housing units and settlements. The
second step consists of informal land transfer from these original settlers to others. Informal land
tenure rights especially that claimed by farmers have contributed to all the above processes to a
great extent (Gondar town municipality office).

16
The result of the land use and housing ownership survey shows that there are informal housing
constructions and extension in all areas of the town especially at the peripheries. The population
of the town has been raised and consequently the need for homes became serious. In addition to
this the growth of the town is a continuous process so that it is important to measure its
horizontal expansions in order to recommend possible solutions for future development (Gondar
town municipality office).

2.1.8. Causes of Urban Landscape Dynamics

In developing country, population growth is considered as the main causes of urban sprawl.
From an economist point of view, as population raises in an urban area it becomes more difficult
to locate the same percentage of residential houses and business activity if the urban boundaries
remain fixed. In addition, higher income residents generally demand larger quantities of housing
and the inexpensive land to build it on is more likely on the fringe of developed urban areas
(Ewing, 1997). Another cause of urban sprawl to occur as stated by UN-Habitat (2010) report
was because authorities pay little attention to slums, land, services and transport. Moreover, they
lack the ability to predict urban growth and, as a result, fail to provide land for the urbanizing
poor. In addition, the urban poor are denied land rights which are one of the main factors driving
people to the periphery of towns, associated with urban sprawl in developing countries.
In developing country the causes of urbanization are twofold: people migrate from rural areas to
cities for employment opportunities, and fertility rates of the people already living there are high.
There is a critical key difference between urban sprawl development in developed and
developing countries. In developed countries, people do not want to live in the cities and they
choose to move out. However, in developing countries, people move out because there is not
enough space for them to live in the city (Haregewoin, 2005). The movement of the people from
the city center to the sub urban part due to lack of space results spread of development without
sufficient infrastructural provision. This pattern of development crates problems such as the
wastage of agricultural land become a burden for service provision. Currently, the high
population growth in cities is seen to create pressure and competition for land related resources,
which has also caused upward pressure on land values, particularly in sub-urban areas. Clearly,
not enough attention is paid to developing solutions to the expansion of cities in sub-urban areas
and the challenge this is causing in regard to the delivery of sustainable land management,

17
services and governance (UN-Habitat (2010). In many African cities the urban land market is
skewed against the poor. The rising costs of urban land and other factors prevent poor people and
other vulnerable and disadvantaged groups from gaining access to suitable land, which does not
pose economic, environmental or health risks to the residents (UN-Habitat 2010).
Another cause for urban sprawl is lack of clear regulation mechanism of the new development in
sub urban area. The majority of local land use regulation is accomplished with zoning. The goal
of zoning land is to regulate the use and intensity of development such as housing type and
density. Although technical in their implementation, zoning regulations are often a community‟s
expression of the unwritten rules of social order (Harris, 2002).
Urban zoning is a device of land-use planning used by local government. Zoning regulations can
restrict the supply of land available for development operates to increase land prices. This is
useful to maintain environmental quality open space or agricultural use, for commercial or
industrial activities. However, absence of strict zoning regulations leads to rich men to buy a
land on sub-urban area and to build houses for rental purposes. This provides cheap
accommodation for other low-income resident or migrants who lack the means of constructing
their own house. However, unregulated development is always aggravating scatter development.

2.1.9. Effects of Urban Landscape Dynamics on Agricultural Activities

According to Cooney (2008), when sprawl takes place at the periphery of a certain locality it has
direct or indirect impact on other parts of the same locality within its border or on a neighboring
community. The consequences of rapid urbanization on peri-urban areas include changing labor
and market conditions, loss of farmlands, changes in social, cultural and lifestyles. Planning and
development control becomes a problem where existing institutions are not adequately structured
to handle consequences of urbanization and which cut across different administrative boundaries
leading to land issues not being addressed or, at worst, leading to conflicting land use planning
decision (Thuo, 2013).
The rapid urban expansion in developing countries is usually associated with unplanned
development in the periphery that requires high cost of infrastructure. It is also evident that even
in planned activity the development of infrastructure usually does not correspond to the
large tract of land that develops in a low-density pattern. Thus, urban expansion consequently
results social, environmental and economic problems to the society (Abdissa, 2005). Due to their
spatial proximity to urban areas, agricultural lands are the first ones affected adversely from the

18
urban sprawl. In Europe, the cities have primarily expanded to the former agricultural lands in
the recent years. For example, throughout the Mediterranean region, 3% of farmland was lost to
urbanization in the 1990s, and 60% of this land was prime farmland (EEA, 2006). Turkey has
also been subject to land transformations into urban–industrial land uses, especially with the loss
of fertile agricultural lands to urbanization (Doygun et al., 2008).
Urbanization threatens food supply drawing from the fact that, as cities grows, they affect
agriculture land because they expands into surrounding areas of agriculture and this greatly
affects food production. An immediate consequence of rapid urbanization is the crowding out of
agriculture land, and the reduction of agricultural capacity (Kim et al., 2003). Cohen and Garrett
(2009) observed that there is a shift in employment within the food system, with fewer people
working in agriculture and more working in transport, wholesaling, retailing, food processing
and vending due to the need to meet the higher demand for processed agricultural products. The
increase of urban encroachment onto farmland has “forced farmers to bring lower quality land
under cultivation to meet the growing demand for agricultural products” (Statistics Canada,
2005b). Steady, long-term production is generally unsustainable on lower-quality land (ibid).
Once farmland is bought, farmers cannot just simply move their farms farther away from urban
areas and continue their livelihood (Cooney, 2008).
Urban centers often expand over their nations‟ most productive agricultural land since most
urban centers grew there precisely because of highly fertile soils (Satterthwaite et al., 2010). An
instantaneous consequence to this is the threatened food supply drawing from the fact that, as
urbanization grows, it affects agriculture land because it expands into surrounding areas of
agriculture and this greatly affects food production with an impact on food security. According
to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), food security is defined as a
solution that “exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preference for an active
and healthy life (FAO, 1996). Food security encompasses the four dimensions, availability,
stability, safety, and access. Urban sprawl generally affects these four dimensions of food
security in the sense that as population continue to grow and urbanize, the demand for food rises;
rural and peri-urban area are required to cater for the rising food demand. Matuschkle, (2009)
observes that sprawling cities may hinder the ability to meet new demand patterns due to the
expansion of cities on prime agricultural land being converted into residential, commercial and

19
industrial uses leading to the crowding out of peri-urban agriculture, which often plays a
significant role in supplying perishable foodstuffs to cities (FAO, 2008). This threatens food
availability of every developing city. As the cities and towns continue to expand more and more
food will be required for the urban areas, putting additional pressure on rural infrastructures,
transport, technologies, and food distribution, which are already insufficient further jeopardizing
the stability of food supply (FAO, 2008).

2.1.10. Empirical Studies

Land supports all forms of lives and other factors of production. Verheye and Paul (1997) noted
that a vast majority of households, especially in developing countries, depend on land and other
natural resources for satisfying their immediate needs and achieving their long-term ambitions.
Land is often the only available resource on which rural families can rely to build their lives.
American economist and philosopher, Henry George (1839-1897), emphasized the importance of
land and remarked “so man not only lives off land, levying on it for its materials and forces, but
he also lives on land. His very life depends on land. Land is the habitation of man, the store-
house upon which he must draw for all his needs, the material to which his labour must be
applied for the supply of all his desires; for even the products of the sea cannot be taken, the light
of the sun enjoyed, or any of the forces of nature utilized, without the use of land or its products.
On the land we are born, from it we live, to it we return again - children of the soil as truly as is
the blade of grass or the flower of the field. Take away from man all that belongs to land and he
is but a disembodied spirit”. It was clear to George that there could be no production of any kind
without land.
Earlier studies several urban growth studies have been conducted throughout the world. The
studies that have been investigated over urban growth through similar methods to this study and
in countries with similar demographic trends and structures have been closely monitored. The
reports looked at have monitored urban growth in Ewing et al 1997(Los Angeles ), China (Chen
et al, 2000), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (de Jong et al, 1997), along the Islamabad highway,
Pakistan (Naseem et al, 2000) and in Alexandria, Egypt (Azaz, 2001).
The results for all the case studies showed that a rapid urban growth had occurred in all of the
investigated places, this through both an expansion of the main urban area and through urban
sprawl. The main reason for the urban growth was in all of these cases due to a high natural
population increase throughout the countries because of high birth rates and rural urban

20
migration. Urbanization was also taking place in the cities, these rates tend to increase when
regional and national economy is prospering (Masek, 1996). This could clearly be seen in Oman
when oil was found there. The reason for this is because of the employment opportunities that
this offers to the cities (Al-Awadhi et al, 2003). Similarities could also be seen in the way the
urban growth was occurring, it was so fast that it was taking place without any planning from the
government which created huge areas of informal housing (Azaz, 2001, Naseem et al, 2000).
These different case studies have all concluded that there was great change detection for several
different land classes, this to show the effects that urban expansion have on other land use
classes. This study has however only focused on urban landscape dynamics and its impact on
agricultural land.
2.1.11. Conceptual Framework
Urbanization has greatly contributed to the modification of urban areas in Ethiopia. The major
contributor to urbanization is natural population increase intertwined with rural-urban migration
in search for better opportunities in the urban areas. As a result, a host of problems occur in these
areas resulting to movement of population to the urban fringes leading to the sprawling of urban
land uses in the urban fringes which are majorly agricultural areas. The encroachment of urban
land uses in urban fringes results to crowding out of agricultural lands impacting directly or
indirectly on the inhabitants and the immigrants in these areas. The impacts on land uses include
loss of farmlands, loss of labor in the agricultural sector and creation of jobs in other sectors
mainly non-agricultural sectors among others. Consequently, a decline in agricultural
productivity resulting to food insecurity related problems as vividly illustrated in Figure 2.1

Figure 2.1 Conceptual framework Responses (R)

Regulatory (policies) and
Deriving forces (D) Institutional frameworks
-Demographic dynamics
-Increasing demand for Housing
-Expansion of informal
Impact (I)
settlements
States(S) -Loos of agricultural land,
-urban development policy
Changes in land natural beauties
-proximity to the town
use/Urban -decline of agricultural
landscape production,
Pressure (P) dynamics
Urban sprawl/expansion

21
Source: Conceptual framework: Adopted from the Drivers Pressures State Impact and Responses
(DPSIR) framework from European Environment Agency, (1999)

This study has adopted the Drivers Pressures State Impact and Responses (DPSIR) Conceptual
model developed by the European Environment Agency (1999), (Figure 2.1). The urbanization
process is propelled by population growth either by natural growth, migration leading to the
sprawling to the urban fringes. The sprawling effect exerts pressure on agricultural land coupled
with other factors resulting to loss of prime agricultural lands. The loss of prime agricultural land
further leads to a decline in agriculture productivity, increased land values and house rent and
pressure on existing infrastructure as more people settle, in the area among other effects. All
these are as a result of the urban influence on agricultural lands in the peri urban areas. It is also
important to note that the effects of urbanization can be reduced if not totally controlled through
the efforts of the government both at the national and local level. The government through its
numerous regulations which if well implemented with effectively empowered institutions can
control the tempo of rapid population growth, resulting in effective land use planning and
management.

22
 CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1. Description of the Study Area

Gondar was founded by Emperor Fasilides around the year 1632, and grew as an agricultural and
market town. It is a town and a separate woreda in Ethiopia, which was once the old imperial
capital and the capital of the historic Begemder Province from 1632-1868. Located in the Semien
Gondar Zone in the Amhara Region, Gondar is north of Tana Lake on the Lesser Angereb River
and southwest of the Simien Mountains. The town administration of Gondar is comprised of 21
urban and 12 rural kebeles and one satellite town (Tewodros Ferede, 2011) .The town has a
latitude and longitude of 12°36′N and 37°28′E with an elevation of 2200 meters above sea level.
The town is nicknamed "The Camelot of Africa" due to the presence of a group of royal castles
(From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) (refer annex 1).

3.2. Location and Topography

The study area is located in North Western Ethiopia, 748 km from the capital Addis Ababa. It
stretches along a ridge in the northern Ethiopian highlands. The town is situated at an elevation
of 2,200 meters, and is surrounded on three sides by a crown of 3,000-meter high mountains. It
has a total area of 11.058 sq. km (Tewodros, 2011).
The town serves as zone administration, trade and tourism center. There are 190 Manufacturing
industries 27 Wholesale trades 1,380 Retail trades, 2100 service trades, ten fuel stations, 14
garages and there are 11 banks and one micro financial institution in the town. The average
annual revenue of the municipality within the 2010-2012 periods was 29,867,832.50 Birr and the
major sources of revenue were taxes, rent and service charges. The major investment
opportunities of the town are: manufacturing industry, agro processing industry, social services,
hotel and tourism development (Ministry of Urban Development and Construction, 2015).

23
 Figure3.1. Location Map of the Study Area

3.3. Population of the Study Area

Based on the 2013 national census projection by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia
(CSA), Gondar had a total population of 306,246 of whom 149,970 were men and 156,276
women.
3.4. Climatic Condition
The rainfall pattern of Gondar is unimodal and characterized by a single maximum rainfall
pattern with peaks in July and August. About 80%-90% of the mean annual rainfall falls in the
main rainy season (“Kiremt”), which starts in June/July and extends into August/September. The
annual rainfall in the town reaches up to 1,172 mm (TewodrosFerede, 2011). Rainfall variability
in time is considerably high especially at the beginning and end of the main rainy season. The

24
agro-ecological climatic zone is “Dega” with a mean annual temperature ranging from 12.90C to
26.40C and an average of temperature 20°C.
3.5. Materials

3.5.1. Data Sources and types

As it determines the quality of the research, collecting accurate and reliable data is the most
determinant factor for any research. Both primary and secondary data was used in this particular
thesis.
The primary Data: Primary data used in this research was collected by means of filed
observation, types of activities in the area, topography, infrastructure, services and the authentic
environment was observed and noted.
Secondary Data: secondary data was also obtained from remotely sensed multi-temporal and
multi-spectral images and collected from the review of related literature (i.e. valuable
information from already done research papers, books, and journals, reports, by accredited
scholars and researchers, both published and unpublished and aerial photographs from Google
Earth, topographic maps, Internets, or other sources). This kind of information was incorporated
to give a strong background to the study and also information on urban landscape dynamics, its
definition, causes and consequences, urban mobility forms and challenges, urban infrastructural
services and the challenges on service delivery. Secondary data about the study area including
existing land use trends and patterns, Infrastructure, and environmental profile and its states was
collected especially from State administrative organs within the study area‟s jurisdiction.

3.5.2 Soft ware’s and Instruments

ArcGIS 10.4: was used to generate maps showing changes in urban development and
occurrences of urban landscape dynamics of Gondar town. ERDAS IMADINE 2013; for land
use/land cover classification and interpretation; Garmin GPS was used to collect sample
representative of land use land cover class for accuracy assessment of the classified images.

3.5.3 Methodology

In this section the general methods implemented, applied techniques and the data inputs used
throughout this study are explained briefly in the design below. In order to answer this objective
the researcher was used both quantitative and qualitative techniques. The quantitative methods

25
involved the usage of Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing data to produce maps
of 1985, 2000, and 2017 and calculate the urban expansion within the study area from the
Landsat classified images. The Geographic Information System allowed for reclassification of
land cover data into categories appropriate for the purposes of this study urban landscape
dynamics and its impact on agricultural land.
The rate of change was calculated for each land use and land cover using the following formula:
Rate of change (ha/year) = (A-B)/C Where
A = Recent area of land use/ cover in ha
B = Previous area of land use/ cover in ha
C = Time interval between A and B in years
Percentage change (trend) = observed change/sum of change * 100
Thematic change analysis of the individual land-use/land-cover was also performed using
ERDAS software. The relative change detection matrix result shows results from one class
change to another.

3.5.4 Research design

The study employed a descriptive (observational method) research design to make intensive
investigation of the extent of urban expansion and its implications on land use in the town.
Hence, to maintain triangulation in its findings, the design manifested the basic features of both
the qualitative and quantitative research.

3.5.5 Site Reconnaissance

A preliminary reconnaissance survey was conducted in the town to capture the existing situation
of the area, to aid in selection of study sample areas and the general idea of the physical
characteristics of the area. Visual observations were made along selected routes for the
identification of surface features and land-use types. The units of observation included new and
upcoming residential developments, current state of agricultural land parcels in the area. Global
Positioning Systems (GPS) points were taken in the study area for each land use/land cover. The
GPS point recorded are overlaid and compared to the 2017 supervised classified image to
determine the precision of classified satellite images and recoded where necessary. The GPS
used in this study was Garmin Map 60 with precision of four (4) meters.

26
 Fig 3.2 General Methodology of flow chart

Acquiring of Satellite Images

Landsat image of 1985 Landsat image of Landsat image of

2000 2017

Image preprocessing

Sub setting/clipping of study area

Training samples/Signature Editor

Supervised Maximum likelihood

Classification

Ground truth
Accuracy assessment of classified images
GPS data
LU/LC map LU/LC map of
LU/LC map of
1985 2000
2017

Urban landscape dynamics detection

Detect the trends and rates of urban

land scape dynamics

Collection of primary and secondary

data

Mapping urban landscape Analyze major effects of urban

dynamics sprawl on agricultural land

Evaluation of urban landscape dynamics

and its effect on agricultural land

Conclusion and Recommendation

27
 3.5.7 Methods of Data Analysis

The collected data from different sources has organized into meaningful facts and made detail
explanation and presented using photographs, maps, charts, simple tables and graphs. While the
Qualitative data analysis, it has analyzed using content analysis method. Detail description has
been given according to the pattern and themes that emerge during interviews and data obtained
from questionnaires and in depth individual interview has analyzed in detail. The data obtained
during discussion also used for the triangulation purpose and to enrich the data.
3.5.8 Methods of Data Processing
3.5.9 Acquiring of Satellite Images
To accomplish the objectives of the present study, three available satellite images are obtained
from United States Geological Survey (USGS) databases online resources and spatially
referenced in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection with datum World Geodetic
System (WGS) 1984 UTM zone 37N. The images are extracted to Tiff formats for processing
and the detail of image properties are summarized in table 3 below. Landsat Thematic
Mapper(TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager-Thematic
Infrared Sensor (OLI-TIRS) data has several advantages for urban land use/land cover change
detection application. In this study Landsat imageries of TM, ETM+ and OLI-TIRS are
employed and acquired in the same season of February and the same level of resolution for the
periods 1985, 2000 and 2017.The resolution of these Land sat images are 30 meters. Therefore,
they are conducive for comparison of changes and patterns, which have occurred in the time
under discussion, due to their constant spatial and temporal resolutions. These remotely sensed
images were used and processed for identifying urban land use/land cover change as an indicator
of urban landscape dynamics patterns of the study area.

28
 Table3.1 Characteristics of Satellite Image.

Sensor Acquisition time Spatial resolution Path/Row Source

Landsat 5 TM 03/02/1985 30m 170/052 USGS

Landsat 7 ETM+ 08/02/2000 30m 170/052 USGS

Landsat 8 OLI 10/02/2017 30m 170/052 USGS

3.5.10 Image Enhancement and Visual Interpretation

The goal of image enhancement is to improve the overall visual interpretability of an image by
increasing the apparent distinction between the features. Image enhancement improves the clarity
of images for human viewing by removing blurring and noise, increasing contrast, and revealing
details. The process of visually interpreting digitally enhanced imagery attempts to optimize the
complementary abilities of the human mind and the computer. The mind is excellent at
interpreting spatial attributes on an image and is capable of identifying obscure or subtle features
(Lillesand and Kiefer 1994). Contrast stretching was applied on all images and the false color
composites (FCC) are produced. These FCC are visually interpreted using on-screen digitizing to
delineate land cover classes that could be easily interpreted, such as urban and water.
Satellite bands were composed in different ways in order to identify surface features in the study
area. True color composite usually known by RGB 321 combination where band 3 reflects red
color, band 2 reflects green and band 1 reflects blue color. Another composite called "false color
composite" which uses an RGB combination of 432. In this band combination band 4 represents
the NIR infrared, band 3 belongs to red and band 2 to green. This combination gives better
visualization in identifying vegetation which looks red in 432 combinations. Using the false
color (432) combination and vegetation is seen as red and dark red, water is blue and shades of
blue.

29
 3.5.11 Sub setting/Clipping of AIO/Area of interest
AIO stands for area of interest\study area. In remote Sensing, it means the area showed in the
remote Sensing image. When the Landsat image is downloaded from USGS online services the
image were cover large area beyond the study area so the AIO/ study area should be sub
stetted/clipped by using the shapefile or boundary of the study area by using GIS or ERDAS
IMADINE software‟s.
3.5.12 Training Samples/Signature Editor
Training sample is the process of defining the criteria by which these patterns are recognized.
The computer system must be trained to recognize patterns in the data. Training can be
performed with either: Supervised or an Unsupervised image classification method. In
supervised classification, you select representative samples for each land cover class. The
software then uses these “training sites” and applies them to the entire image. Supervised
classification uses the spectral signature defined in the training set. For example, it determines
each class on what it resembles most in the training set. The common supervised classification
algorithms are maximum likelihood and minimum-distance classification. In this study
maximum likelihood classification were used.
The result of training is a set signature‟s that define a training sample or cluster. Each signature
corresponds to a class. It is used with a decision rule to assign the pixels in the image file to a
class. Signatures can be: Parametric or Nonparametric. Parametric signature: is based on
statistical parameters of the pixels that are in the training sample or cluster. A set of parametric
signatures can be used to train a statistically-based classifier to define the classes.
Nonparametric signature: It is not based on statistics, but on discrete objects in a feature space
image. These feature space objects are used to define the boundaries for the classes. In
supervised classification, spectral signatures are developed from specified locations in the image.
These specified locations are given the generic name 'training sites' and were defined by the user.
Generally a vector layer is digitized over the raster scene. The vector layer consists of various
polygons overlaying different land use types.

30
 3.5.13. Image Classification

Image classification is defined as the extraction of differentiated classes or themes of land use
and land cover categories, from raw remotely sensed digital satellite data. It is a technique to
identify different features such as urban land cover, vegetation types, anthropogenic structures,
mineral resources, or changes in any of these properties from the satellite image. Additionally,
the classified raster image can be converted to vector features (e.g. polygons) in order to
compare with other data sets or to calculate spatial attributes (e.g. area, perimeter) using different
statistical methods. Image classification is a complex and time consuming process. In order to
improve the classification accuracy, selection of appropriate classification method is required.
This would also enable the analyst to detect changes successfully (Elnazir, 2000).
There are different types of image classification techniques. However, in most cases the
researchers categorized them in to two major modes: supervised and unsupervised classification.
For this study, the supervised classification type was applied. It is a type of classification which
is based on the prior knowledge of the researcher to the study area. It requires the manual
identification of Point of interest areas as reference (Ground Truth) within the images, to
determine the spectral signature of identified features. It is one of the most common types of
classification techniques in which all pixels with similar spectral value are automatically
categorized into land cover classes or themes.
Supervised classification was much more accurate for mapping classes, but depended heavily on
the cognition and skills of the image specialist. The strategy was simple: the specialist
recognized conventional classes (real and familiar) or meaningful (but somewhat artificial)
classes in a scene from prior knowledge, such as personal experience with what's present in the
scene, or more generally, the region it's located in, by experience with thematic maps, or by on-
site visits. This familiarity allows the individual(s) making the classification to choose and set up
discrete classes (thus supervising the selection) and then, assign them category names. As a rule,
the classifying person also locates specific training sites on the image - either a print or a monitor
display - to identify the classes.
In this work, Level I supervised classification approach is used and passed through the steps
such as: select training samples which are typical representative for the land cover classes;
perform classification using maximum likelihood algorithm and finally assess the accuracy of the
classified image through randomly generated training samples and analysis of conversion matrix.

31
The maximum likelihood algorithm is one of the most widely used in the classification of
satellite imagery. The method is based on the likelihood that each pixel belongs to a particular
class. The basic theory assumes that these likelihoods are equal for all class and that input bands
are uniformly distributed. The method requires a significant calculation time and is based on a
normal distribution of the data in each band in the classification. In this study five LU/LC classes
were identified by supervised maximum likelihood classification technique. Based on this
classification, five land use/land cover classes are identified; the description of each land use/
land cover type is presented (in Table 3.2).
3.5.14. Accuracy Assessment

Assessment of classification accuracy is critical for a map generated from any remote sensing
data. Although accuracy assessment is important for traditional remote sensing techniques, with
the advent of more advanced digital satellite remote sensing the necessity of performing an
accuracy assessment has received new interest (Congalton, 1991). Currently, accuracy
assessment is considered as an integral part of any image classification. This is because image
classification using different classification methods or algorithms may classify or assign some
pixels or group of pixels to wrong classes. In order to wisely use the land cover maps which are
derived from remote sensing and the accompanying land resource statistics, the errors must be
quantitatively explained in terms of classification accuracy. The most common types of error that
occurs in image classifications are omission or commission errors. The widely used method to
represent classification accuracy is in the form of an error matrix sometimes referred as
confusion matrix. Using error matrix to represent accuracy is recommended and adopted as the
standard reporting convention (Congalton, 1991). It presents the relationship between the classes
in the classified and reference maps. The technique provides some statistical and analytical
approaches to explain the accuracy of the classification. Kappa coefficient, which is one of the
most popular measures in addressing the difference between the actual agreement and change
agreement, is also calculated. The kappa is a discrete multivariate‟s technique used in accuracy
assessment. The error matrix can then be used as a starting point for a series of descriptive and
analytical statistical techniques (Congalton, 1991).

32
 3.5.15. Land Use/Land Cover Description

The type and number of land use classes are determined by a number of factors. The contribution
of the land use type on the recorded change is the primary determinant reason. This is directly
related to the area the land use shares „in the town the other is land use types that its change
easily recognizable and identifiable. Again, typical land features of the area are taken as a class.
In order to make sample collection and classification easy, land use/land cover nomenclatures are
required to create and define the possible land use/land cover classes first. Although the focus of
the paper was on built-up areas, the land use/land cover map of the study areas are first generated
using land use/land cover classes presented(in table 3.2).
The land use/land cover classes applied in this paper are adopted from AFRICOVER land
use/land cover classification scheme which is widely applied in East African Countries
(AFRICOVER, 2002). For the sake of simplicity, the researcher modified the descriptions of
some of the land use/land cover classes considering the land use/land cover diversity of the study
area. Therefore, five major land use/land cover nomenclatures: built up/ urban areas, agricultural
lands, vegetated areas, open space and water body are used to produce the final land use/land
cover map of the study area.

Table 3.2 Land use/land cover classes ‘description.

Land use class Description

Built up area All residential, commercial and industrial areas, villages, settlements and
transportation infrastructures.
Agricultural land Including crop fields and fallow land.

Vegetation In this study the vegetation includes planted of trees around compounds,
eucalyptus wood lots and road side tree plants and parks.
Bare land All vacant spaces, sands, rocky areas, cleared land
Water body Including river, lake and dams.

33
 CHAPTER FOUR

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction

This chapter presents and discusses the results of the classified Landsat images and field survey

conducted at Gondar town and its surrounding rural areas. Results of land-use and land cover
changes and its impact on agricultural land are discussed. In order to achieve the objective, the
present study focused on digging out the expansion of built-up area and its impacts on farmland.
Total number of five land use/land cover classes is mapped, spread over 29,434 hectares of study
area (which is the municipal limit). These classes include built-up, agricultural land, bare
land/open space, vegetation cover and water body (Figure 4.1, 4.2 and Figure 4.3). The statistics
derived out of different land use/ cover classes is given in Table 4.1 and their detailed
explanation is as follows:
4.2 Spatio-temporal urban landscape dynamics between 1985 and 2017
The land cover maps generated after running a maximum likelihood supervised classification
algorithm are presented in table 4.1 and figures 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3 below. The spatio-temporal
dynamics in land use/land cover from 1985 to 2017 were extracted through the analysis of multi-
temporal and multi-spectral Landsat images. From the ground truth data and classified Landsat
images of 1985, 2000 and 2017; the study area has undergone various spatio-temporal land use
dynamics. As shown from the figures, there has been an increase of built up areas with respective
values 2% of the study area in 1985 to 5% in 2000 and 12.8% in 2017 indicated in table 4.1. The
general statistics of the spatio-temporal landscape dynamics of the town for 32 years‟ period
covered as derived from the thematic maps are presented in the Table 4.1 below;

34
Table 4.1. Areas of land use classes and spatio-temporal dynamics occurred.

1985 2000 2017

Class Name Area (ha) Area Area(ha) Area Area Area

(%) (%) (ha) (%)

Agricultural 15524 52.7% 15116 51.3% 12297 41.8%

land

Built-up 567 2% 1472 5% 3773.79 12.8%

Vegetation 4815 16.5% 3821 13% 4075.18 13.85%

Bare land 8523 29% 8913 30.3% 9255 31.44%

Water 5 0.017% 112 0.4% 33.03 0.11%

Class Total 29434 100 29434 100 29434 100

Source: Extracted from analysis of Landsat images of 1985, 2000, and 2017
The spatial distribution of land cover dynamics within the area from 1985 is shown in table 4.1
and Figure 4.1below, Agricultural land comprising of irrigated and rain fed arable lands,
cropland with permanent crops, farming and fallow fields occupied the largest area of 15524
hectares attributed that the land was under largescale farming with majority holding. At 1985,
large farm production was the mainstay of the town's economy and these had to remain intact in
order to safeguard the economy. In 1985 Gondar town was dominated by cultivated land and
bare land which together accounted for 81.7% of total area. In contrast, the urban built-up area
was covered only 567ha, a mere 2% of the total area. Built up land comprising of residential,
industrial and commercial units occupied 567 hectares attributed to less developments and
increased agricultural activities. This situation expresses the low level of development at 1985
with a small compact urban area. This indicated that Gondar town was an agricultural dominated
area, whereas urban development was in its initial stages at that time. Bare land comprised of all
vacant spaces, sands, rocky areas, cleared lands occupied 8523 hectares attributed to the clearing
of agricultural land in Preparation planting season. The area covered by vegetation cover shares

35
about 4815 hectares area whereas; area under water body covers only 5 hectares comprising
rivers, dams occupied the least area. Figure4.1 is shown below.
Figure 4.1 Land use land cover of map 1985

percentage of land use land cover map of

1985
0%
Agricultural land

29% Built-up
Vegetation
53%
16% Bare land
Water
2%

Source: Extracted from Landsat 5™ image of 1985

36
In 2000, the agricultural land in the study area covered a total of 15116 hectares in table 4.1
which was a decrease from the 15524 hectares recorded in 1985; Agricultural land was
continuously being pushed and converted to urban uses in the process of urbanization. In 2000
agricultural areas covered 51.3% of the study area. From figure 4.1 below and table 4.1,
agricultural land was the most dominant land cover class in the study area but showed a
continuous decrease from 51.3% in 2000 to 41.8% in 2017. Because of the successive decrease
of agricultural areas, built up areas have dynamically increased in the study periods. This
horizontal physical expansion has leaded a complete dispossession of agricultural land or farm
size reduction.
Urban sprawl has been criticized for its inefficient use of land resources and energy and large-
scale encroachment on agricultural land (Cheng, 2003). Not only the agricultural areas but also
the plantation cover was also decreased, as Rahman et al., (2008) has noted that, the area of
urban sprawl is characterized by a situation where urban development negatively interferes with
urban setting which is neither an acceptable urban situation nor suitable for an agricultural rural
environment. On contrary the area under built-up land in 2000, increased and occupied 1472
hectares and increase from 567 hectares in 1985. In the first decade (from 1985 to 2000), the
land cover change analysis revealed that built up area has shown a constant increase and finally it
tripled. In many countries, the increasing demand is most likely to affect or is affecting rural-
urban fringe areas. Ifeoluwa et al., (2011), observed that Akure city in Nigeria had haphazardly
expanded outwards depleting cultivated land and vegetation in the fringe. This was particularly
towards the north western part of the city where area covered by built-up/ settlement land had
increased from 10.1% in 1986 to 32.51% in 2002 closely related to continuous construction of
both residential and commercial buildings to serve the community. The increase in area coverage
of built-up land attributed to the clearing of agricultural land for the planting season and
explained by the clearance of agricultural land to pave way for urban developments, particularly,
housing, and infrastructure (Nairobi Metro Strategy, 2008).
The area covered by vegetation cover occupied 3281 hectares decreased from the 4815 hectares
in 1985. Unpredictably, water body increased from 5 hectares in 1985 to 112 hectares in 2000.

Area under bare land increased to 8913 hectares from 8523 hectares in 1985. Figure 4.2 shows
the spatial distribution of land uses in the Gondar town in 2000. As it is seen from land use/land
cover map (Figure 4.2) it is evident that the built-up land had increased compared to 1985

37
spreading to the north, south and southwest of the study area.
Figure 4.2 land use/land cover map 2000

Source: Extracted from Landsat 7(ETM+) image of 2000

In 2017, the area under agricultural land had decreased from 15,524 hectares (52.7% of the total
study area) to 12,297 hectares (41.8% of the total study area); while built-up land had increased

38
to an area of 3773.79 hectares, gaining more than 2301 hectares of land representing 12.8% of
the land area in the study area. This indicates that the majority of urban growth was happening
beyond the city center, in surrounding area. The area under vegetation cover increased to cover
4075.59 hectares as compared to 3281 hectares recorded in 2000.The area covered by water
decreased to cover 33.03 hectares compared to 122 hectares in 2000 while the area under bare
land increased and occupied a total area of 9255 hectares compared to 8913 hectares in 2000.
The spatial distribution of the land cover and land use map in 2017 is shown in Figure 4.3 below.
Figure 4.3 land use/land cover map 2017

39
 Percentage coverage of Land use land
cover map of 2017

0%
Agricultural land
31% 42% Built-up
Vegetation
14%
13%
Bare land
Water

Source: Extracted from Landsat 8(OLI) image of 2017

Figure 4.3 shows the area in hectares and percentage of land-use/cover changes between 1985
and 2017. It is evident that the area covered by agricultural land was on the decline. The period
between 1985 and 2000 shows a minimal decline in area coverage of Agricultural land where it
occupied 15524 hectares and 15116 hectares, respectively, a decline of 408 hectares. This
contrasts sharply with the period between 2000 and 2017 in agricultural land further declined, to
occupy an area of 12297 hectares in 2017, a decline of 2819 hectares. This expansion of built-up
area had engulfed the surrounding farmland.
4.3 Accuracy Assessment of the Classification
Because classified land cover maps from remotely sensed images contain various types of errors,
it is the responsibility of the researcher to find out those errors so as to make the produced land
cover maps become reliable and easily interpretable by users. Once the classified image is
integrated into a GIS, to become an information source for urban planners and researchers,
accuracy assessment should be processed as it limits the classification results of a remotely
sensed imagery data. To do so, the accuracy of a classified map has to be assessed and compared
with a referenced data using an error matrix as explained in chapter 3 of section 3.5.9. The
accuracy assessment in this study is given in the table 4.2 below.

40
Table 4.2 Producer's and User's accuracy for individual land-use/land cover classes
Year 2017(%) 2000(%) 1985(%)

Land use Produce User's KIA Produce User's KIA Produce User' KIA
class r's per r's per r's s per
Class Class class
Agriculture 85.71 85.52 0.82 82 86 0.72 86 91.5 0.88
Built up 82.76 94.12 0.78 86 83.33 0.79 88.46 100 1
Vegetation 80.70 92 0.76 86 84 0.78 95.92 88.6 0.82
cover 8
Bare land 73.44 95.92 0.67 90 81 0.65 94 87. 0.85

Water 82.46 100 1 88 89 0.68 82.46 85 0.67

Table 4.3 Overall accuracy and Kappa (K^) statistics for the classifications

Year of study 1985 2000 2017

Overall classification accuracy 91.04 82 82.49

(%)
Overall Kappa(K) statistics 0.88 0.79 0.78

4.4 Analysis of the Rates and Trends of Urban Landscape Dynamics

The Spatial Trend of Change result was based on the change of all the land classes to the Built
up area, and it has shown a trend of sprawling of built up to the south southeast and southwest.
The urban landscape dynamics trends and rates occurred in the town is presented for each
individual land use classes in hectare and percentage below in table 4.4

Table 4.4 Amounts of Dynamics Occurred in Land Use / Land cover Classes for Three
Time Periods of 1985, 2000 and 2017

41
 1985 to 2000 2000 to 2017 1985 to 2017

Class Name Change in Change Change Change in Change in Change in

(ha) in in percent (ha) percent (%)
percent (ha) (%)
(%)
Built-up +905 +159.6% +2031.79 +156.4% +3206.79 +565.57%

Agriculture -408 -2.63% -2819 -18.65% -3227 -20.78%

Bare land +390 +4.6% +342 +3.84% +732 +8.59%

Vegetation -994 -20.6% +254.18 +6.65% -739.82 -15.36%

Water +107 +2140% -78.79 -70.5% +28.03 +560.6%

Source: Extracted from analysis of Landsat images of 1985, 2000, and 2017
Note: Positive (+) sign indicates an increase in aerial extent.
Negative (-) sign indicates a reduction in aerial extent.

Table 4.5 Rates and trends of Dynamics occurred in Land Use/Land cover Classes for
Three Time Periods of 1985, 2000 and 2017
1985 to 2000 2000 to 2017 1985 to 2017

Class Name Change in Annual Rate Change Annual Change Annual

(ha) of Change in (ha) Rate of in (ha) Rate of
in(ha) Change Change
in(ha) in(ha)
Built-up +905 +60.33 +2031.79 +119.5 +3206.79 +100.2

Agriculture -408 -27.2 -2819 -165.8 -3227 -100.8

Bare land +390 26 +342 +20 +732 +22.88

Vegetation -994 -66.26 +254.18 +14.95 -739.82 -23

Water +107 7.133 -78.79 -4.6 +28.03 +0.88

42
Source: Extracted from analysis of Landsat images of 1985, 2000, and 2017
Note: Positive (+) sign indicates an increase in aerial extent.
Negative (-) sign indicates a reduction in aerial extent.

As it is shown in table 4.4 and 4.5, the amount of change that has taken place between 1985 and
2000 was extensive. All the land use classes have revealed some form of gains and losses except
built up.
The results indicate that between 1985 and 2000 (15 years‟ period), the areas covered by
agricultural land and vegetation cover decreased by 2.63% (-408 hectares) and (-20.6%) 994
hectares at annual a rate of 27.2ha and 66.26 ha/year respectively that shows a decreasing trend.
while the built-up land and bare land rose by (+159.6%), +905 hectares and +4.6% (+390
hectares) and water body (2140%) 107 hectares with annual average rate of 60.33ha, 26 hectares
and 7.133 hectares respectively that shows a great increasing trend.
The results also indicated that between 2000 and 2017 (17 years‟ period) the area covered by
agricultural land continued to decrease by 2819 hectares of land which accounts 18.65% of the
agricultural area decreasing at annual rate of 165.8 hectares while the built-up land continued to
increase by 2031 hectares which accounts 156.4% urban land at annual average rate of 119.5
hectares of growth. This tells us urban land mass expanded rapidly between 2000 and 2017
(2031.79ha) compared to between 1985 and 2000 (905ha) (table 4.4). Interestingly, the area
covered by vegetation increased by 254.18 hectares at annual average rate of 14.95 hectares
ha/year which accounts (6.65%) of the vegetation area. The area covered by water decreased by
70.5% while the area covered by bare land increased by 3.84% with annual rate of 20 hectares
per year.
For the period covered by the study (1985-2017) the area showed great land-use changes,
20.78% of agricultural land was converted to other uses at annual rate of 100.8 hectares per year.
The built up area increased by 565.57% with annual rate of 100.2 hectares per year which shows
a constantly increasing trend, while the area covered by vegetation cover decreased by 15.36%.
During this period, the area covered by bare land and water also increased by 8.59% and 560.6%
with annual average growth rate of 22.88ha and 0.88 ha respectively.

43
 4.5 Rate and Magnitude of Built up Area Expansion (1985-2017)
The built-up area in a span of 32 years between 1985 and 2017 were compared to find the
changes (table 4.6 and figure 4.4). The built up area expansion of the town between 1985 and
2000 was 905 hectare which was a 159.6% expansion and annual rate of growth was also 60.33
hectares per year (Table 4.6). The output between 2000 and 2017 were also compared to find the
changes in the built-up area (table 4.6). The built up area expansion of the town between 2000
and 2017 was 2301.79 hectares which is nearly 156.4% expansion and annual rate of growth was
also approximates about 135.4 hectares per year (Table 4.6 and figure 4.6).

Table 4.6 Rate and Magnitude Built-up Area Expansion (1985-2017)

No Study period Built-up area Expansion(ha) Expansion Annual rate of

in(ha) (%) growth (ha)
1 1985 567 - -

2 2000 1472 905 159.6 60.33

3 2017 3773.79 2301.79 156.4 135.4

Source: Extracted from Landsat images of 1985, 2000, and 2017

Figure 4.4 Built up area expansion (1985, 2000 and 2017)

44
 4.6. Built up proportion in the reclassified image of Gondar town
In order to visualize and examine the spatial expansion of the built up areas during the three time
periods, the LULC map was reclassified into built up and non-built up area (Figure 4.5). The
main focus of this study was assessing and examining the spatial extents of built up areas within
the three study periods. To achieve this, a reclassification was made to generate land use and
land cover maps of built up and non-built up areas as shown in figure 4.5 below. These maps
show a clear pattern of increased urban expansion prolonging both from urban center to
adjoining non-built up areas along major transportation corridors. The maps show the spatio-
temporal urban growth pattern in the study area. As clearly seen in table 4.5, the proportion of
built up areas in 1985 was 2% of the entire study area. In 2000 the percentage of built up areas
showed more than double increase and it was 5 % and in 2017 it reached to 12.8% of area
coverage. By visual interpretation someone can have a quick picture of the spatio-temporal
change of the urban area. Besides, the direction of expansion can be understood. It is also
interesting to see that the trend of urban growth (Figure 4.5) and result map of the Spatial Trend
of Change showed similar result.
Table 4.7: Built and non-built-up areas between1985 to 2017
Land cover 1985 2000 2017
class Area(ha) % Area(ha) % Area (ha) %

Built up areas 567 2 1472 5 3773.79 12.8

Non Built up 28867 98 27962 95 25660.21 87.2
areas
Total area(ha) 29434 100 29434 100 29434 100

The study area has experienced spatial increase on different land use and land cover classes such
as; built up areas, due to the corresponding horizontal expansion as well as conversion of land
cover classes during the distinct study periods. The reclassified images in figure 4.5 showed that
there had been a rapid land cover change from non-built up areas to built-up areas. In all study
periods, agricultural areas were the most dynamic classes which contributed to the increase of
built up areas. There was a huge decrease of agricultural areas from 1985 to 2017.
The latest data i.e. the 2017 image demonstrates a rapid and massive transformation of
agriculture land to urban built up land. This substantial transformation from agricultural land use

45
to urban built-up zones is noticeable from the earlier existing built-up land maps and thus it can
be concluded that the urban landscape dynamics has been taken place at the expense of fertile
agricultural land parcels as it seen in figure 4.5 below.

Figure 4.5 built up and non -built up areas for 1985, 2000 and 2017 respectively.

46
 4.7 Change detection analysis
Multi-date post-classification comparison change detection was performed to investigate land
cover change in the study area from 1985 to 2000. The post-classification change detection
engrossed on a supervised classification using five classes: agricultural lands, bare land, built-up
vegetation and water. The resulting 1985, 2000 and 2017 classifications were used as inputs to
quantify the land transition matrix (Tables 4.8, 4.9 and 4.10). Land covers that had no change
separated were from the land covers, which had change by comparing the three thematic layers.
The same types of land cover for the three years identified were observed not to have changed,
while different types of land cover changed. This analysis produced five change classes: change
in agriculture land, change in bare land, change in built up and change in vegetation cover and
change in water.
The diagonal values shaded in yellow from cross tabulation matrix (Tables 4.8, 4.9, 4.10) show
land-use/land-covers that were unchanged in the given years. This thematic change detection was
calculated by subtracting the area of each land cover classification of 1985 from 2000. Out of the
15703.99 hectares, that were Agriculture in 1985, 10172.33 hectares did not change while there
was a 5531.66 decrease in hectares representing 35.22% of 1985 a period of 15 years.

For the Bare land, results show the extent to which was converted, where 420.73 hectares out of
8429.64 hectares of bare land were converted to built-up land while 711.80 hectares of the same
bare land were converted to vegetation cover. 1949.17 hectares of a total of 4744.56 hectares of
vegetation cover have changed to agriculture land while 526.18 hectares have changed to bare
land and 126.02 hectares to built-up. 0.91 hectares of a total 4.01 of water have changed to built-
up land while 0.19 and 1.62 hectare have changed to vegetation cover and agriculture
respectively. This indicates that a significant area of water bodies has been converted for
agriculture uses by draining farming and overgrazing, as well for urban development purposes
such construction of residential, commercial and infrastructure development.

47
Table 4.8: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 1985 to 2000

2000

Classes Agriculture Bare land Built-up Vegetation Water Grand

Total
Agriculture 10172.33 4034.37 555.63 868.87 72.79 15703.99

Bare land 3049.57 4242.61 420.73 711.80 4.93 8429.64

149.42 44.52 281.18 29.10 15.43

1985

Built-up 519.65

Vegetation 1949.17 526.18 126.02 2138.92 4.26 4744.56

Water 1.62 0.09 0.91 0.19 1.20 4.01

Grand 15322.10 8847.77 1384.48 3748.89 98.61 29401.86

Total
Total -381.89 418.13 864.83 -995.67 94.6
Change
Source; Landsat maps of 1985 and 2000
The diagonal values (shaded in yellow) from cross tabulation matrix (Table 4.9) show land-
use/land-cover that were unchanged in the given years. In the study period of 2000 and 2017 out
of 15321.87 hectares of land under agriculture in 2000, 8554.35 hectares remained unchanged
while 1226.80 and 3522.87 hectares were converted to built-up and bare land respectively,
assumingly to pave way for built-up area .5212.09 hectares out of 8849.08 hectares covered by
bare land converted to built-up while 2326.12 hectares converted to agriculture. Area under
vegetation cover, 158.96 hectares converted to built-up out of the total 3749.28 hectares while
1313.37 hectares converted to agriculture. It is interesting to note that 2010.36 hectares, out of
15321.87 hectares occupied by agriculture in 2000 converted to vegetation cover.5.61 hectares

converted to built-up and 54.86 hectares to bare land, from the 98.69 hectares under water.

48
Table 4.9: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 2000 to 2017

2017

Classes Agriculture Bare land Built-up Vegetation Water Grand

Total

Agriculture 8554.35 3522.87 1226.80 2010.36 7.49 15321.87

Bare land 2326.12 1058.66 5212.09 233.10 19.10 8849.08

2000

Built-up 263.26 715.14 321.12 80.74 4.47 1384.73

Vegetation 1313.37 675.83 158.96 1600.08 1.04 3749.28

Water 24.04 54.86 5.61 13.57 0.61 98.69

Grand Total 12481.13 3731.29 9220.66 3937.84 32.72 29403.65

Total Change -2840.74 -5117.79 7835.93 188.56 -65.97

Source; Landsat maps of 2000 and 2017

For the entire period covered by the study area, it is clear that the area covered by agriculture is
slowly being edged out by other land uses, mainly by built-up land. Out 15703.99 hectares of
land under agriculture in 1985, 1722.922832 hectares were converted to built-up and
4074.690414 hectares converted to bare land, assumingly to pave way for built-up area (Table
4.10.). 4337.721136 hectares out of 8430.145548 hectares covered by bare land were converted
to built-up while 2652.833271 hectares were converted to agriculture; 583.8035091 hectares of a
total of 4744.919046 of vegetation have changed to built-up land as shown in Table 4.10. The
change detection result indicates that agricultural land is being edged out slowly by other land
uses, especially by built-up land. The implication of these rapid changes of land use is a decline
in area under agricultural land.

49
Table 4.10: Land use/Land cover transition matrix (ha) from 1985 to 2017

2017

Classes Agriculture Bare land Built-up Vegetation Water Grand

Total
Agriculture 7358.92757 4074.6904 1722.92 2031.5325 20.5531 15208.62
9 14 2832 61 9046 658

Bare land 2652.83327 943.15502 4337.72 488.05943 8.37668 8430.145

1 6 1136 38 0953 548

Built-up 99.7750283 340.82181 42.3676 488.05943 0.68786 519.5765

1985

2 22 8233 38 9173 3

Vegetation 2219.27431 708.02765 583.803 1230.7064 3.10715 4744.919

3 63 5091 12 6542 046

Water 1.06472544 1.9501048 0.03161 0.9675803 0.3526 4.014030

8 63 957 92 273

Grand Total 12331.8749 3716.8774 9038.61 3787.1901 32.9984 28907.28

2 32 4361 25 173

Total Change -2876.75 -4713.27 8519.03 957.73 20.9843

Source; Landsat maps of 2000 and 2017

The primary focus of this study was to understand the level of change in built-up area in the
designated study area period. The major land-use/land-cover that contributed to the increase of
built-up area is presented in Table 4.10. Based on the land-use/land-cover change statistics
between 1985 and 2000, 555.63 hectares of agricultural land, 420.73 hectares of bare land,
126.02 hectares of vegetation cover land and 0.91 hectares water converted to built-up area.
Between 2000 -2017, 1226.80 of agricultural land, 5212.09 hectares of bare land, and 158.96
hectares of vegetation cover and 5.61 hectares of water were converted to built-up area. The
overall change for the period of the study (Table 4.10) indicates that agricultural land is the most
affected by the land use/cover changes.

50
Table 4.11: Land-use/Land-cover class conversion to Built-up area in hectares

Land use/Land cover 1985-2000 2000-2017 1985-2017

Area (Ha) % Area (Ha) % Area (Ha) %

Agriculture to Built-up 553.63 50.3 1226.80 18.6 1723 25.93

Bare land to Built-up 420.73 38.2 5212.09 78.92 4337 65.28

Vegetation to Built-up 126.02 11.44 158.96 2.4 584 8.78

Water to Built-up 0.91 0.08 5.61 0.08 0.03 0.0005

TOTAL 1101.29 100 6603.46 6644.03 100
Source; Landsat maps of 1985, 2000 and 2017

51
 CHAPTER FIVE
CONCULUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 CONCULUSION
This study has been carried out to assess and analyze urban landscape dynamics and its impact
on agricultural land in the study area. The research has been conducted and aimed at the use of
remote sensing and GIS techniques to analyze the urban landscape dynamics and its impact on
agricultural land to detect changes of urban land use/land cover based on Landsat satellite
images. Landsat imageries of 1985, 2000 and 2017 were utilized to track urban landscape
dynamics in the study area through analysis of LULC changes during these periods.
Results have revealed that in the study area LULC was occupied by agriculture, which covers
52.7% of entire area in 1985, 51.3% in 2000 and 41.8% in 2017. Its conversion to built-up area
was the main factor for its decline in 2017. The built up areas, vegetated, bare land and water
body possess 2%, 16.5%, 29% and 0.017% of entire study area in 1985 and in 2000 5%, 13%,
30.3% and 0.4% and 12.8%, 13.85% 31.44% and 0.11% in 2017 respectively. Even though many
changes have observed among the LULCs in the year between 1985 and 2017, the highest rate of
changes are seen in agricultural lands which was decreased by 100.8 hectares in every year and
built area was increased by 118 hectares per annum.
The increase of urban/built up use is mainly at the expense of other land uses and the principal
factors contributed for expansion of the town were: population growth, high demand for housing,
urban development policy, expansion of informal settlements etc. The urban sprawl is one of the
potential threats to sustainable development therefore; identification and analysis of the sprawl
patterns would help in effective land use planning and environmental management in urban area.
This study judiciously demonstrates the application of geo informatics in studying the dynamics
of urban sprawl in any town. The rate of expansion of the town, especially residential areas are
threatened the existence of natural resources in the future. This strongly warns the need of
searching an alternative solution or a wise utilization.

52
 5.2. RECOMMENDATION

There is a need to plan for balanced physical urban growth and population growth in our cities
and towns. This can only be possible if there is an understanding of the nature of urban growth
change, the urban demographic pressure, the level of service available to supply, the source and
amount of resources to future growth of cities and towns. Urban planning authorities and town
planners should think about the future growth of the town and should understand the
consequence of unbalanced physical urban growth and public service and infrastructure supply.
They should have to depend on a GIS data base and information system to regulate their urban
development in a sustainable way such that they will manage the supply of public services and
infrastructures that will be needed as a result of future urban expansion.
Satellite remote sensing with repetitive and synoptic viewing capabilities, as well as
multispectral capabilities, is a powerful tool for mapping and monitoring the ecological changes
in the urban core and in the peripheral land-use planning. The use of remote sensing needs to be
introduced for monitoring the activities of developers. This will help in reducing unplanned
urban sprawls and the associated loss of agricultural lands.
At current rate of population dynamic, land-use/land-cover change is certain to increase.
Therefore, the following management strategies are recommended.
 Instead of new housing development on agricultural land, renewal of older buildings and
infill development of high rise buildings to meet the demands and needs of the increasing
number of population in the town. In addition the construction of condominium houses is
another solution. It is already beginning to implementation by the government and should
be continuing in the future.
 For effective urban developments, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and public
participation in decision making are also recommended. These are essential to assess the
likely impacts of urban development on the surrounding ecosystems.
 Population growth is one of the major causes for urban expansion especially rural- urban
migration to seek employment opportunity and services. So as, to alleviate the rapid
population growth of the town, it is better to minimize rural-urban migration by creating
conducive environment in rural areas.
 Sustainable use of land resources and avoiding agricultural land loss by uncontrolled
horizontal urban expansion.

53
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