Transportation Planning

Module II

Dr. Ritvik Chauhan

Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli
Email: chauhan@nitt.edu
Course Content
• Trip Generation Analysis - Zoning - Types and sources of data
– O-D studies - Expansion factors - Accuracy checks - Trip
generation models - Zonal models - Household models -
Category analysis - Trip attractions of work centers.

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Lecture Objectives
• To give an idea of trip, type of trips and trip ends
• Discuss factors influencing trip generation and attraction

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Trip
• Trip is one-way person movement by a mechanised mode of transport, having two trip ends
• Trip ends can be classified as origin and destination or productions and attractions

Origin end Destination end

Return trip

Zone 2
Zone 1

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Origins and Destinations
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to go to work Residential Area
in Zone 2
This results in 2 trip ends: Zone 1
• One origin for Zone 1
• One destination for Zone 2 Non-Residential
Area

Zone 2
When the same worker leaves Zone 2 in the
evening to go to home in Zone 1
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One origin for Zone 2
• One destination for Zone 1

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Productions and Attractions
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to go to work in Zone 2
Residential Area
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One production from Zone 1
• One attraction for Zone 2 Zone 1

Non-Residential
When the same worker leaves Zone 2 in the evening to go to Area
home in Zone 1
This results in 2 trip ends: Zone 2
• One attraction for Zone 1
• One production for Zone 2

Origins and destinations are defined in terms of direction of trip

Productions and attractions are defined by the land use
• Residential land use produce trip ends
• Non-residential land use attracts trip ends
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 Sojourn
• A short period of stay in a particular location.
• It usually has a purpose associated with this stay: work, study, shopping, leisure, etc.

Tour or Trip Chain

• A set of linked sojourns and trips.
• Tour may comprise trips made at several times of the day.

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Trip Generation
• Trips are generated by activity in a zone
• Number of trips generating from a zone
are called as trip generation Restaurant Play
• Trip that are generated are assumed to
return to same zone (Balancing trip) Office
• Land use that generate trips such as
homes are called as trip generators School/college
Home
• Land use that attracts trips such as
offices, schools, shopping complexes are
referred as trip attractors Work
Park

Trip generated from home

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 Trip Attraction
• Any trip that is generated has to have an attraction
• Commercial, industrial, and administrative areas
• Trip generating areas usually have night time population
higher that day time population, while the reverse is true
for a trip attracting area

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Home and Non-Home-based trips
• Trips that have one end as
home are referred as home-
based trips
• Trips that do not have any end
as home are non home-based
trips
• Most of the studies have
found that home-based trips
are 3 to 4 times more than
Non-home based trips

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 Trip Purpose
• Work (Home-work)
• Educational (Home-school, University)
• Personal (Home- work-clinic, friends, sports)
• Business (Home- work- other work)
• Social (Home- relatives)
• Recreational (Home- park, pilgrimage, entertainment)

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Factors Governing Trip Generation and Attraction
• Income
• Car ownership
• Family size & composition
• Land use characteristics
• Distance of the zone from town centre
• Accessibility to public transport system & its efficiency
• Employment opportunities
• Floor space in industrial & shopping units, offices etc.

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Study Area
• Area of current study
• Location from which travel pattern and land use data relating to transportation area
need to be collected
• Study area can be at the national, regional or local level
• For planning at the city level, it is necessary that the study area not only covers the
existing city limits but should include areas of possible future growth
• The boundary of the study area is an imaginary line known as the external cordon,
and should be continuous and should intersect roads where it is safe and convenient
to carry out traffic surveys.

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Zoning
• Once the study area is defined, it is then divided into a number of small units called traffic
analysis zones (TAZ) or simply zones.
• It is assumed that the attributes and properties of zones are concentrated in a single point
called the zone centroid.
• Data from a zone should reflect the same land-use (for example: residential, industrial,
commercial, educational, recreational etc.) and the average characteristics of individual
households.
• Zones within the study area are called “internal zones” and those outside the study area
where trips can originate and terminate are called “external zones”.

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Conditions for Zoning
• Zones should match other administrative divisions, particularly census zones.
• Zones should have homogeneous characteristics, especially in land use, population etc.
• Zones should be as smaller in size as possible so that the error in aggregation caused by the
assumption that all activities are concentrated at the zone centroids is minimum
• The boundaries of zones should match with natural barriers such as canals, rivers etc.

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Travel Movement Types
• Intra - travel having both ends
within the same zone of study (IV)
area Inter
(II)
• Inter - travel having both ends in Transit
(V)
External
different zones of study area
• External - travel having one end (III)
in study area another outside Inter
study area Intra (VI)
(I)
• Transit - travel having both ends
outside study area

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Scope of data collection needed for a metropolitan O-D survey

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 Data Needed
• Household survey
• Intercept surveys, external cordon: Data on people crossing the study area border,
particularly nonresidents of the study area. This data can also be used to check and
amplify the household data on study area crossings
• Intercept surveys, internal cordons and screen lines: These are required to measure
trips by nonresidents, and again to verify household data to some extent.
• Traffic and person counts
• Travel time surveys
• Land use data

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Types of Survey
• Home interview survey
• Road-side interview survey
• Commercial vehicle survey
• Taxi survey
• Public transport survey
• Post-card questionnaire survey
• Registration number plate survey
• Tag on car survey

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 • External Cordon: An outer boundary used to
measure and analyze traffic or population movement.
• Internal Cordon: A similar boundary within the
external cordon, often to study more focused areas
like central districts.
• Screen Lines: Imaginary or physical lines used to
monitor traffic flows or population movements at key
locations.
• Zoning: Dividing the area into different regions,
possibly for administrative, land use, or transport-
related studies.

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Screen Line
• An imaginary line
• Usually along a physical barrier such as river
or railroad tracks
• Splits the study area into few parts
• Traffic counts and possibly interviews are
conducted along this line, and the crossings
are compared to those calculated from the
interview data as a check of survey accuracy.

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Home Interview Survey
• Most reliable survey for collecting the data needed for transport planning
• Number of trips made, with their origin, destination, purpose, travel mode, time of
departure and arrival
• Household characteristics like type of dwelling unit, number of residents, age, sex, vehicle
ownership
• Number of residents who can drive, family income, school/ college going children, number of
employed persons
• Most expensive and difficult type of survey

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Sampling Framework
• Random sampling
Random sampling

• The challenge in sampling design is to identify sampling strategies and sizes that allow
reasonable conclusions, and reliable and unbiased models, without spending
excessive resources on data collection.

𝐶𝑉 2 𝑍𝛼2
𝑛 =
𝐸2

where 𝑛 is the sample size, 𝐶𝑉 is the coefficient of variation, 𝐸 is the level of accuracy
(expressed as a proportion) and 𝑍α is the standard normal value for the confidence level (α)
required.

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Home Interview Survey
Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) in USA have prescribed the following standards for sampling

Population of the study area Sample Size

Under 50,000 1 in 5 households

50,000–150,000 1 in 8 households
150,000–300,000 1 in 10 households
300,000–500,000 1 in 15 households
500,000–1,000,000 1 in 20 households
Over 1,000,000 1 in 25 households

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 Survey Instrument-Questionnaire
• Should be simple, direct, should take minimum time, and should cause minimum
burden to the respondent
• Excessive number of questions degrades the response rate and increases trip omissions
• Number of open questions should be minimized
• Data collected - Household characteristics, personal, travel related
• Collect information so that complete tours can be re-constructed during analysis
• Seek information about all modes of travel, including non-motorised travel

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Data Correction
• Household size correction - It may be possible that while choosing the random
samples, one may choose either larger or smaller than the average size of the
population as observed in the census data and correction should be made accordingly.
• Socio-demographic corrections - It is possible that there may be differences between
the distribution of the variables sex, age, etc. between the survey, and the population
as observed from the census data. This correction is done after the household size
correction.
• Non-response correction - It is possible that there may not be a response from many
respondents, possible because they are on travel everyday. Corrections should be
made to accommodate this, after the previous two corrections.
• Non-reported trip correction - In many surveys people underestimate the non-
mandatory trips and the actual trips will be much higher than the reported ones.
Appropriate correction need to be applied for this.

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 Sample Expansion
• To amplify the survey data in order to represent the total population of the zone
• Done with the help of expansion factor (𝑓)which is defined as the ratio of the total
number of household addressed in the population to that of the surveyed.

𝑎
𝑓=
𝑏−𝑐

• where 𝑎 is the total number of household in the original population list, 𝑏 is the total
number of addresses selected as the original sample, and 𝑐 is the number of samples
where no response was obtained.

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Validation of results
• In order to have confidence on the data collected from a sample population
• Three validation tests
• Consistency of the data by a field visit (normally done after data entry stage)
• Computational check of the variables. For example, if age of a person is shown
some high unrealistic values like 150 years.
• Logical check done for the internal consistency of the data. For example, if the age
of a person is less than 18 years, then he cannot have a driving license.
• Once these corrections are done, the data is ready to be used in modeling.

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Road-side interview survey
• Involves asking a sample of drivers and passengers of
vehicles a limited set of questions; these include at least
origin, destination and trip purpose
• The conduct of these interviews requires a good deal of
organisation and planning to avoid unnecessary delays,
ensure safety and deliver quality results
• The identification of suitable sites, co-ordination with the
police and arrangements for lighting and supervision are
important elements in the success of these surveys

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Commercial Vehicle Survey

• Owners of commercial vehicles in the study

area are contacted
• Drivers of the vehicles in operation are
requested to record all the trips they made,
giving origin, destination and travel time

Taxi Survey
• Taxi owners in the study area are contacted
• Drivers of the taxis are requested to record all the trips they made, giving origin, destination,
taxi charges and travel time

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Post-card Questionnaire
• At the survey point on the cordon line, a reply paid questionnaire is handed over to
the drivers with a request to complete the information and send it by return post.
• The data includes type of vehicle, origin, destination, trip purpose and travel time.

Registration Number Plate Survey

• This survey is conducted at roads intersecting the cordon line.
• The registration number plates of vehicles entering or leaving are noted.
• By matching the number plates later in the office, it is possible to find out at which point the
vehicle entered and at which point the vehicle exited. The time interval gives the travel time
taken.

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Tags on Vehicles Survey
• Vehicles entering the study area at the cordon line are stopped and a tag is affixed to the
windscreen.
• The tags have different colour and shape for different survey stations.
• At the exit points, the vehicles are stopped and the tags are removed.
• Thus it is possible to identify at which survey point the vehicle entered and at which
survey point it exited.
• If the time at entry and exit are marked on the tags, the travel time can be determined.

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Public Transport Survey
• This survey is conducted at roads intersecting a cordon line.
• The buses are stopped and the passengers are interviewed and information on their
journey and socio-economic characteristics is collected.
• Alternatively, a prepared questionnaire is handed out with a request to complete the
form and send it by post.
• Similar surveys can also be conducted on passengers travelling in a train.

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Concept of Trip Generation Models
• Trip generation is the first stage of the conventional travel demand models
• The objective is to understand the reasons behind trip making behaviour and to provide
mathematical relationships to synthesise the trip making pattern on the basis of
observed trips, land use data and socio-economic characteristics.

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Trip Generation Model
• Growth-factor Modelling
• Regression Analysis
• Categorical Analysis

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Growth-factor Modelling

• One of the techniques used to forecast future travel demand by scaling

current trip patterns based on expected changes in population, land use,
economic activity, and other factors.

• Growth factor modeling is used to predict how the number of trips

generated will change over time. The model applies growth factors to
base-year trip data to estimate future travel demand.

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Growth-factor Modelling
Determine Base Year Trip Data: Rates for the base year (current situation) are established using
surveys, historical data, or trip generation manuals (such as the Institute of Transportation
Engineers’ (ITE) Trip Generation Manual).
Estimate Growth Factors: Derived based on future forecasts of population, employment, or land
use. These factors are used to adjust base-year trip generation estimates to reflect future
conditions.
- For example, if the population in a zone is expected to grow by 20%, a growth factor of 1.2 would
be applied to the number of trips generated in that zone to account for this growth.
Apply Growth Factors to Trip Generation Data: Growth factors are applied to each zone’s trip
generation to project future trip rates. The future trip generation estimate can be calculated as:
Future Trip Generation=Base-Year Trip Generation × Growth Factor
Refine and Calibrate: The model is calibrated using historical data and travel patterns to ensure
accuracy. Local factors, such as transportation policies and infrastructure improvements, are also
considered.
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Types of Growth Factor Models
Uniform Growth Factor Models: Assumes that all zones or areas experience the same
growth rate for trip generation. This is a simplistic approach and may be used when
detailed data is unavailable or when uniform growth across regions is expected.
Variable Growth Factor Models: Allows for different growth rates across different zones or
areas based on specific forecasts for population, employment, or land use changes. This
method provides more accurate projections by accounting for localized growth patterns.
Furness Method (Iterative Growth Model): An iterative method that adjusts trip
generation rates based on both trip productions and attractions. It is widely used in trip
distribution models and can be adapted for trip generation.
Time Series or Regression-Based Models: Uses historical data to forecast future trip
generation based on trends in variables such as population, employment, and land use.
This is a more sophisticated form of growth factor modeling that incorporates statistical
techniques.
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Types of Growth Factor Models
Advantages
Simplicity: The approach is straightforward, requiring relatively little data.
Scalability: It can be applied across a wide range of geographies, from small communities to large
urban areas.
Flexibility: Growth factors can be adjusted to reflect changes in socio-economic variables, land use,
and policies.
Limitations of Growth Factor Modeling
Assumes Linear Growth: Growth factor models often assume linear growth, which may not reflect
real-world complexities such as changing travel behavior or land use patterns.
Lack of Detail: Simple growth models do not account for changes in the spatial distribution of trips,
new infrastructure, or shifts in transportation modes.
Requires Reliable Forecasts: The accuracy of the model is dependent on the quality of the
population, employment, and land use forecasts.

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 GFM: Conclusion
• Growth factor modeling for trip generation provides a useful method for
predicting future travel demand based on projected socio-economic
changes. While it offers a simple and scalable approach, it is often used in
conjunction with other transportation models to improve accuracy and
account for more complex transportation dynamics.
• Mostly used in practice to predict the future number of external trips to
an area, this is because they are not too many in the first place (so errors
cannot be too large) and also because there are no simple ways to predict
them
• In some cases, they are also used, at least as a sense check, for interurban
toll road studies.

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Growth-factor Modelling
• Attempt to predict the number of trips produced (or attracted) by household or zone as a function of
(generally linear) relations to be defined from available data.

𝑇𝑖 = 𝐹𝑖 𝑡𝑖

where 𝑇𝑖 and 𝑡𝑖 are respectively future and current trips in zone 𝑖, and 𝐹𝑖 is a growth factor.
• Estimation of 𝐹𝑖 ???
𝐹𝑖 is related to variables such as population (P), income (I) and car ownership (C)
𝑓 𝑃𝑖𝑑 ,𝐼𝑖𝑑 ,𝐶𝑖𝑑
𝐹𝑖 =
𝑓 𝑃𝑖𝑐 ,𝐼𝑖𝑐 ,𝐶𝑖𝑐
d and c denote the design and current years respectively.

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Example: 1
• Consider a zone with 250 households with car and 250 households without car. Assuming we know
the average trip generation rates of each group:
car-owning households produce: 6.0 trips/day
non-car-owning households produce: 2.5 trips/day
ti = 250 × 2.5 + 250 × 6.0 = 2125 trips/day
Let us also assume that in the future all households will have a car; therefore, assuming that income
and population remain constant (a safe hypothesis in the absence of other information), we could
estimate a simple multiplicative growth factor as:
𝐶𝑖𝑑
𝐹𝑖 = = 1/0.5 = 2
𝐶𝑖𝑐

Ti = 2 × 2125 = 4250 trips/day

Ti = 500 × 6 = 3000
• Growth factor method would overestimate the total number of trips (by approximately 42%)

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 Growth Factor Modelling
• Total Trips 500, Population in Base Year is 50000, and next year is 70000, what shall be the expected
number of trips in Future?

Double Growth Factor Model

Different growth rates to different zones or separate growth rates for population and employment,
𝑻𝒏 = 𝑻𝟎 ∗ 𝑮𝒑 ∗ 𝑮𝒆
• Employment growth rate= 3%; n=10; To=500?
1
• If growth factor is given for n years, then conversion into 1 Year = 𝐺𝐹 𝑛

Logarithmic Growth
R= growth rate per year ; n = number of years; e = Eulers Number (2.718)
𝑻𝒏 = 𝑻𝟎 ∗ 𝒆𝒓∗𝒏
𝑻𝒏 = 𝑻𝟎 ∗ 𝒆(𝒓𝒑 +𝒓𝒆 )∗𝒏

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Example: Multiple growth rate factors for varying year
• Base Tripe (To) = 500
• Population Growth Rate over two years = 1.4
• Employment Growth Rate over Three years = 1.2
Calculate Annualized Growth Rates:
1Τ
• Annualized Growth Rate = 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
1Τ
• Annualized Population Growth Rate = 1.4 2 = 1.1832
1Τ
• Annualized Employment Growth Rate = 1.2 3 = 1.10627
Estimate Next Year’s Trips
• TNext Year = To * Annual Population Growth Rate * Annual Employment Growth Rate = 629
Estimate Trips in Five years
T5 Year = To * = 500* 1.1832 5 * 1.10627 5

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Multiple Linear Regression
A technique for fitting mathematical relationship between dependent & independent variables.

Mathematically,

Yp = a₁x₁ + a₂x₂ + a₃x₃ + ……… +anxn + U

where Yp= No. of Trips for Specified Purpose / Mode / Zone /Household/Capita
x₁, x₂, x₃…= Independent (Explanatory) variables relating to trip generation i.e. land use ,socio economic factors,
modal attributes.
a₁, a₂, a₃..= Co-efficients of independent variables obtained by linear regression analysis
U = Disturbance term, Constant ;representing that portion of value of Yp not explained by the independent
variables

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Assumptions
• All the variables are independent of each other.
• All variables are normally distributed.
• All the variables are continuous.
• A linear relationship exists between the dependent & independent variables
• Influence of independent variables are additive.

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Regression Model Acceptance Test Criteria
• Coefficient of correlation (r)
• Coefficient of determination (R2)
• Sign of regression co-efficient
• Mean Squared Error
• t- statistic (degree of certainty that a meaningful relationship exists)
• F- value

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Example
Trip Rate Vehicle
(tphhpd) HH Size Ownership/hh
3.7 2.5 1.1
5.5 3.6 1.3
5.7 4.1 1.3
6.5 4.6 1.1
4.2 3.2 1.2
7.5 5.1 1.1
3.8 1.8 0.9
4.1 2.8 1.1
6.7 4.9 1.5
7.8 5.5 1.9

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 9

Daily Trip Rate

6

3
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2

Household Vehicle Ownership

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 Daily Trip Rate
Linear Regression for Data1_A:
Linear Fit of Data1_A
8 Y=A+B*X

7
Parameter Value Error
------------------------------------------------------------
Daily Trip Rate

A 0.90123 0.42941
6
B 1.22015 0.10777
------------------------------------------------------------
5

R SD N P
4 ------------------------------------------------------------
0.97018 0.39756 10 <0.0001
3 ------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Household Size

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 Daily Trip Rate
Linear Fit of Data1_A Linear Regression for Data1_A:
Y=A+B*X
8

Parameter Value Error

7
------------------------------------------------------------
A 1.12624 1.91722
Daily Trip Rate

6 B 3.53901 1.50031
------------------------------------------------------------
5
R SD N P
4
------------------------------------------------------------
0.64048 1.25972 10 0.04604
------------------------------------------------------------
3
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Vehicle Ownership

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 Results of MLR
Multiple Regression on Data1:

Independent: Column(B) -> Column(C)

Dependent: Column(A)

Parameter Value Error t-Value Prob>|t|

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Y-Intercept 1.11758 0.63634 1.75625 0.12247
B 1.27265 0.15711 8.10059 <0.0001
C -0.3331 0.69026 -0.48257 0.64412
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

R-Square(COD) Adj. R-Square Root-MSE(SD)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.94315 0.92691 0.41811
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Interpretation of Results
Y-Intercept: p-Value (Prob>|t|): 0.12247 (Not statistically significant at 5% level)
B (Household Size): p-Value (Prob>|t|): < 0.0001 (Highly significant)
C (Vehicle Ownership): p-Value (Prob>|t|): 0.64412 (Not statistically significant)

Model Statistics:
• R-Square (COD): 0.94315 (94.31% of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables)
• Adjusted R-Square: 0.92691 (Adjusted for the number of predictors in the model)
• Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): 0.41811 (Standard deviation of the residuals)

Interpretation:
• The independent variable "B" has a significant and strong positive effect on the dependent variable, with a p-value less than 0.0001.
• "C" does not have a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable as its p-value is quite high (0.64412).
• The error associated with the y-intercept (1.11758) is 0.63634. Hence, the actual value of the y-intercept could vary by approximately ±0.63634
from its estimated value, suggesting some uncertainty in its estimation.
• A lower standard error generally means that the predictor is a more reliable estimate.

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 Cross-Classification or Category Analysis
• The method is based on estimating the response (e.g. the number of trip
productions per household for a given purpose) as a function of household
attributes.
• Its basic assumption is that trip generation rates are relatively stable over time for
certain household stratifications

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Cross-Classification or Category Analysis
Area Type HH Vehicle Household Size
Ownership
1 2,3 4+
CBD 0 0.57 2.07 4.57
1 1.45 3.02 5.52
2+ 1.82 3.39 5.89
Inner Fringe 0 0.97 2.54 5.04
1 1.92 3.49 5.99
2+ 2.29 3.86 6.36
Outer Fringe 0 0.54 1.94 4.44
1 1.32 2.89 5.39
2+ 1.69 3.26 5.76

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 Advantages
• Cross-classification groupings are independent of the zone system of the
study area
• No prior assumptions about the shape of the relationship are required (i.e.
they do not even have to be monotonic)
• Relationships can differ in form from class to class (e.g. The effects in changes
in the household size for one or two car owning households may be
different)

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Disadvantages
• The model does not permit extrapolation beyond its calibration strata
• There is no statistical goodness-of-fit measure for the model, so only aggregate
closeness to the calibration data can be ascertained
• Unduly large samples are required, otherwise cell values will vary in reliability because
of the differences in the number of households being available for calibration at each
one.
• There is no effective way to choose among the variables for classification or to choose
best groupings of a given variable.

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Cross-Classification or Category Analysis

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Cross-Classification or Category Analysis

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Cross-Classification or Category Analysis

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