SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8.

Probability

SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics

MODULE 8. PROBABILITY

Overview: This module covers the basic concept of probability as

review lessons on the fundamental counting principle, permutation,
combination, and basic rules on probability.

Learning Outcomes : At the end of this module, students should be able to

 Describe sample space and events
 Identify different counting rules useful in probability
 Apply probability rules in solving relevant problems and issues
Indicative Contents:
 The Fundamental Counting Principle
 Permutation
 Combination
 Probability of an Event
 Probability Rules
o The Probability of the Union of Two Events
o The Probability of a Complement of an Event
o The Probability of Independent and Dependent Events

PROBABILITY

Definitions:
A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur.
Probabilities can be expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and they can also be expressed
as percentages ranging from 0% to 100%. A probability of 0 indicates that there is no chance that a
particular event will occur, whereas a probability of 1 indicates that an event is certain to occur. A
probability of 0.45 (45%) indicates that there are 45 chances out of 100 of the event occurring.

Experiments are activities that produce outcomes. The outcome may be a success or failure. The
set of all the outcomes in an experiment is called the sample space S. A subject of the sample
space is called an event. An outcome of an experiment is called a sample point

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

Example: Tossing three coins

The sample space in tossing three coins

S = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}

Let E be the event oh having one head

E = {TTH, THT, HTT}

The Fundamental Counting Principle

Let E1 and E2 be two events. If E1 can be done in m ways, and if after – E1 has occurred – E2 can be
done in n ways, then the event “E1 followed by E2” can be done in mn ways.

Examples

1. How many two-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, and 3?

Solution:

There are 3 numbers than can be used for the first digit and 3 numbers for the second digit
if repetition is allowed.

Then there are

3 x 3 = 9 two-digit numbers

Using a Tree Diagram, we have

1 11

1 2 12

3 13

1 21

2 2 22

3 23

31

3 2 32

3 33

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

2. How many ways can one elect a president, a vice president, and a secretary if there are three
candidates of president, four candidates for vice president, and six candidates for secretary?

Solution:

There are three ways to elect the president, four ways to elect the vice president, and six ways to
elect the secretary. There are

3 x 4 x 6 = 72 ways to elect the president, the vice president, and the secretary.

Permutation
Permutation deals with the arrangement or order of things. The number of permutations of n things
taken r at a time is given by

n!
P (n, r) =
(n – r)!

Example 1. How many ways can Angie arrange 6 books at a time in a shelf with 10 books?

Solution:
n! 10! 10! 3628800
P (n, r) = = = = = 151, 200 ways
(n – r)! (10 – 6)! 4! 24

Example 2. How many ways can 8 applicants be seated in five chairs?

Solution:
n! 8! 8! 40320
P (n, r) = = = = = 6,720 ways
(n – r)! (8 - 5)! 3! 6

Example 3. How many ways can you arrange 4 accounting books and 3 management books in a shelf
if the same kinds of books are to be side by side?

4! 4!
P (4, 4) = = = 24 ways
(4 - 4)! 0!

The 3 management books are arranged in

3! 3!
P (3, 3) = = = 6 ways
(3 - 3)! 0!

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

The 2 kind of books are arranged in

2! 2!
P (2, 2) = = = 2 ways
(2 - 2)! 0!

Altogether, the books are arranged in

24 x 6 x 2 = 288 ways

For circular arrangements

( n – 1)!

Example 4. How many ways can 8 persons sit on a round table?

Solution:
(n – 1)! = (8 – 1)! = 7! = 5, 040 ways

For distinguishable permutations

n!
n1! n2! …nk!

where n objects has n1 of one kind, n2 of the second kind, and so on. With

n = n1 + n2 + …+ nk

Example 5. How many ways can 4 red flags, 3 blue flags and 2 white flags be arranged on a line?

Solution:

n! 9! 362880
= = = 1,260 ways
n1! n2! …nk! 4!3!2! (24)(6)(2)

Example 6. How many ways can the letters in the word “STATISTICS” be arranged?

Solution:

n! 10! 3628800
= = = 50, 400 ways
n1! n2! …nk! 3!3!1!2!1! (6)(6)(1)(2)(1)

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

Combination
Combination deals with the selection or group of things or objects. The number of combination of n
things taken r at a time is

n n!
C (n, r) = =
r r! (n – r)!

Example 7. How many committees of five members can be formed from eight sales executives?
Solution:
n n! 8! 8!
C (n, r) = = = = = 56 committees
r r! (n – r)! 5! (8 - 5)! 5!3!

Example 8. How many committees of five, with two accountants and three lawyers, be formed from a
selection of six accountants and eight lawyers?

Solution:
The two accountants can be selected from among six accountants in
n n! 6! 720
C (n, r) = = = = = 15 ways
r r! (n – r)! 2! (6 - 2)! (2)(24)

The three lawyers can be selected from among the eight lawyers in

n n! 8! 40320
C (n, r) = = = = = 56 ways
r r! (n – r)! 3! (8 - 3)! (6)(120)

The two accountants and three lawyers can be selected from the selections in

C (6,2) x C (8,3) = (15)(56) = 840 committees

Example 9. How many ways can you invite one or more of your 4 friends to a seminar?
Solution:
You can invite your 4 friends one at a time in
4! 4!
C (4,1) = = = 4 ways
1! (4-1)! 3!

You can invite your 4 friends one at a time in

4! 4!
C (4,2) = = = 6 ways
2! (4-2)! 2!2!

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

You can invite your 4 friends one at a time in

4! 4!
C (4,3) = = = 4 ways
3! (4-3)! 3!
You can invite your 4 friends one at a time in

4! 4!
C (4,4) = = = 1 way
4! (4-4)! 4!

You can invite one or more of your 4 friends to a seminar in

4 + 6 + 4 + 1 = 15 ways

Probability of an Event
If event E has n(E) equally likely outcomes and its sample space S has n(S) equally likely
outcomes, the probability of event E is

n (E)
P(E) =
n (S)

where

i. the probability of an event E is 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1.

ii. the probability of an impossible event is P(ø) = 0
iii. the probability of a sure event is P(S) = 1

Example 10
A class consists of 12 economics, 15 banking and finance, and 18 accounting students. A student is
chosen at random to represent the class. Find the probability that the student is
a. an economic student

The probability is =

b. a banking and finance student

The probability is =

c. an accounting student

The probability is =

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Rules of Probability
Definitions: Before discussing the rules of probability, we state the following definitions:
 Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time.
 The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B has occurred, is called a
conditional probability
 The conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol P(A|B).
 The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The probability that event A will not
occur is denoted by P(A').
 The probability that Events A and B both occur is the probability of the intersection of A and
B. The probability of the intersection of Events A and B is denoted by P(A ∩ B). If Events A
and B are mutually exclusive, P(A ∩ B) = 0.
 The probability that Events A or B occur is the probability of the union of A and B. The
probability of the union of Events A and B is denoted by P(A∪ B) .
 If the occurrence of Event A changes the probability of Event B, then Events A and B are
dependent. On the other hand, if the occurrence of Event A does not change the probability of
Event B, then Events A and B are independent.

a. Rule of Addition (The Probability of the Union of Two Events)

Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:
(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Rule 2: If A and B are events in the same sample space, the probability of A or B occurring is given by
(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
Example 11
A bowl contains 4 red, 5 blue, and 6 white chips. If a chip is taken at random, find the probability of
having
a. a red or a blue chip
b. a red or a white chip
c. a blue or a white chip
Solution:
(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

a. P(red ∪ blue)=P(red)+ P(blue) = + = =

b. P(red ∪ white)=P(red)+ P(white)= + = =

c. P(blue ∪ white)=P(blue)+ (white)= + =

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b. Rule of Subtraction (Probability of a Complement of an Event)

Let A be an event and let A’ be its complement. If the probability of A is P(A), the probability
of the complement is

P(A’) = 1 – P(A)

It also follows that the probability that event A will occur is equal to 1 minus the probability
that event A will not occur or P(A) = 1 - P(A’)

Example 12. The probability of Bill not graduating in college is 0.8. What is the probability that Bill
will not graduate from college?
Solution: P(A) = 1 – 0.8 = 0.2

Example 13. A bowl contains 4 red, 5 blue, and 6 white chips. If a chip is taken at random, find the
probability of having
a. not a blue chip
b. not a blue nor white chip

Solution
a. not a blue chip

P(blue) =

Therefore, P(not blue) = 1- P(blue)

= 1 - = = = 0.67

b. not a blue nor white chip

P(blue or white)= + by addition rule

Therefore, P(not blue nor white) = 1 - + )= 1 - = = 0.8

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

c. Rule of Multiplication (Probability of Independent and Dependent Events)

Rule 1: If A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring is given by
: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
Dependent - Two outcomes are said to be dependent if knowing that one of the outcomes has
occurred affects the probability that the other occurs
Conditional Probability - an event B in relationship to an event A is the
probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. The probability is denoted
by P(B|A).
Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A)
where

Example 14. An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn from the
urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?
a. with replacement
b. without replacement
Solution:
a. With Replacement (Independent events: Multiplication Rule 1)
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
Let A = the event that the first marble is black; and
let B = the event that the second marble is black.
 We know that there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black.
The probabilities are
First selection, P(A) = 4/10. (Note: After the first selection, the marbles drawn were replaced).
Second selection, P(B) = 4/10
Therefore,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
P(A ∩ B) = (4/10) (4/10) = 16/100 = 0.16

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

b. Without Replacement (Rule 2)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A)
where

 In the first selection, there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black.
P(A) = 4/10.
 After the first selection, there are 9 marbles left in the urn, 3 of which are black.
P(B|A) = 3/9.

Therefore, the probability that both of the marbles are black without replacement is

( )( )

Example 15. A box contains 9 tickets numbered 1 to 9 inclusive. If three tickets are drawn from the
box one at a time with replacement, find the probability that they are alternately

a. odd, even, odd

b. even, odd, even

Solution:

We know from the given data that

 The sample space is

S ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)

 The events are

E(odd) = {1,3,5,7,9)
E(even) ={2,4,6,8)

 The probabilities are

P(odd) = 5/9
P(even) = 4/9

Based on Rule 1 (Independent events)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)

Let A = the event that the number is odd, and
let B = the event that the number is even

a. The probability P(A∩B∩A) = . . = = 0.14

b. The probability P(B∩A∩B) = . . = = 0.11

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Example 16. A box contains 9 tickets numbered 1 to 9 inclusive. If three tickets are drawn from the
box one at a time without replacement, find the probability that they are alternately
a. odd, even, odd
b. even, odd, even

Solution:

Based on Rule 2 (Dependent events)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A)

a. odd, even, odd

The probability is

. . = = 0.16

b. even, odd, even

The probability is

. . = = 0.12

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

SUGGESTED ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES

 Watch video clips of relevant topics on Youtube

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Intro to Probability: Experiment, Outcome, Sample
Space, Event. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYdawN7a3-E

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Union and Intersection of events, how to make Venn
diagram. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdZaQvR2MTM

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Probability of Union of Two Events: P(A or B) =
P(AUB). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSs8uQeCnaU

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Probability: Dependent or independent event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSuIO9-68Cg

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Problem solving permutation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT3vzyDtqyQ

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Solving combination problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZTUyPVvmiE

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Mutually Exclusive Events or Not Mutually Exclusive
Events. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg3uxgUkjzo

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Solving Mutually and Not Mutually Exclusive Events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uMzdL13nGo

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog]. Conditional probability.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiHXg5aJsRI

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog] Solving combination problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZTUyPVvmiE

o Native man Math tutorial. [Tagalog]. Third periodical test PART 2 Probability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXhAldmD-5Y

REFERENCES

ANTIVOLA, M.M., ALAMIL, L.R., AND J. J. RAYEL (2015). Business Statistics: A Modular
Approach. Atbp. Publishing Corp., Mandaluyong City.
BASILIO, F.B. et al (2003). Fundamentals of Statistics. Trinitas Publishing Inc., Bulacan
CABERO, J.B., SALAMAT, L.G. AND A.C. STA. MARIA (2013). Business Statistics. Anvil
Publishing Inc., Mandaluyong City.
CHU, K. DEAN, S. and B. ILLOWSKY (2013). Elementary Statistics. Rice University, Houston, Texas.
[Available Online] http://cnx.org/content/col10966/1.4/ >Online: < http://cnx.org/content/col10966/1.4/ >
KELLER , G. (2013). Business Statistics. Cengage Learning Asia Pte Ltd., Singapore

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

SPEC PA 104: Elementary Statistics

EXERCISE NO. 8
PROBABILITY

Name: ________________________________ Date submitted:__________________

Course and Year: _________________________ Rating: _________________

Exercises 8.1
COUNTING PRINCIPLE

A. Solve only any 2 problems: Get additional points for 2 more problems correctly solved

1. Anne Josephine wants to buy a blouse. She has a choice of 4 styles, 6 sizes, and 7 colors. How
many choices does she have in the selection?
2. Friendly Realty developed new townhouses. It offered 1, 2, or 3 bedrooms, with or without
balcony, with or without a garage, and several different exterior finishes. If there are 72
possible choices open to a buyer, how many different exterior finishes is available?
3. Ralph has three groups of distinct toys: 11 in the first group, 12 in the second group and 20 in
the third group. If he selects one item from each group, how many selections can he form.
4. How many ways can forty runners finish a race first, second and third?
5. Paul owns 8 pairs of jeans, 22 clean T-shirts and 6 pairs of shoes. How many outfits (jean, t-
shirt and shoes) can he create?
6. Cristina wants to buy a car. She has a choice of makes, 8 body styles, and 10 colors. How many
choices does she have in the selection?
7. Andrea Bistro offers a new menu where, for a fixed dinner cost, one can choose from one of
five salads, one of seven entrees, and one eight desserts. How many different dinners are
available?
8. How many ways can Marissa set her table if she has 10 table cloths, 5 sets of silvers, and 8 sets
of dishes?
9. How many three-digit numbers can be formed with the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
a. if repetition of digits is not allowed?
b. if repetition of digits is allowed?
10. A. true or false test consists of 15 questions. How many ways can John Mark his answers of
these questions?

B. Construct the tree diagram of the following: (Select only 2 questions and get additional points
for 2 more questions correctly answered.

1. The number of permutations of the letters a, b, c, d e.

2. How many different meals consisting of one soup, one meat dish, and a dessert are possible
from a menu list of three soups, four meat dishes, and two desserts?
3. How many ways are there for Johann to get dressed if he has five different shirts, three
different pants and two different ties?
4. How many ways can 4 different statistics books, 5 Filipino books and 6 cookbooks are
arranged in a shelf?
5. How many ways can a president, a secretary, and a treasurer are selected from among three
candidates for president, eight for secretary, and six for treasurer?

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Exercises 8.2
PERMUTATION

A. Evaluate
a. 9P4
b. 100P100

B. Solve only 2 of the following problems (Get additional points for 2 more problems correctly
solved)

1. How many ways can Isabella hang 8 pictures

a. in a row?
b. In a circular arrangements
c. Three at a time?

2. On a trip to Batangas, Mylene want to visit 6 of the 10 sites. If the order of the visit matters, how
many ways can she plan the trip?
3. How many ways can 6 Ilocano, 5 Cebuano, and 7 Waray be seated in a row so that all people of
ethnicity are together?
4. How many ways can Andrea arrange 8 computer books, 11 mathematical books and 8 chess books
in a shelf so that all books on a subject are together?
5. How many ways can Carlos, David and Edgar choose movies to watch if nine different movies are
available?
6. If there are 40 runners in a race, how many ways can they place first, second, and third?
7. How many permutations can be made from the letters in the following words:
a. MATHEMATICS
b. PAGUDPUD
c. ILOCOS
d.MATABUNGKAY
e. SPEEDSTERS

8. How many ways can Johann seat himself and five of his classmates around a table? How many ways
can Johann seat his classmates after he has chosen his own seat?
9. With four yellow caps and seven orange caps, alike except for color, how many ways can eleven
boys be provided with caps?

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Exercises 8.3
COMBINATION

A. Evaluate
a. 8C3
b. 9C9

B. Solve only 2 problems: Get additional points for 2 more problems correctly solved

1. How many subsets of 6 elements can be formed from a set of 21 elements?

2. How many groups of six can be formed from 18 students?
3. How many ways can you select a committee of 4 instructors and 2 professors from a group
containing 9 instructors and 10 professors?
4. How many can you select 6 blue cards and 8 white cards from a deck of 14 blue cards and 12 whire
cards?
5. How many ways can a coach select the first five from 15 players if 3 will not be able to play?
6. How many different football teams can a manager start if the entire squad consists of 28 players?
(15 players per team)
7. There are 18 qualified applicants for 6 openings in the MIS department. How many ways can the
group of six be selected?
8. Twelve words are to be paired with the correct 12 out of 15 possible definitions. How many ways
can those words be paired with the definitions?
9. How many ways can five men of each ethnicity be selected from ten Ilocanos and 8 Cebuanos?
10. Joshua is to answer 12 out of 15 questions in an examination. How many choices does he have if
he must answer the first three questions?
11. How many ways can Esther invites one or more of her seven friends?
12. From the other twelve members of the executive board of Cressida Industries, how many ways can
the president appoint a committee of
a. six members?
b. three or four members?

13. From a group of ten scientists, how many different committees can be formed consisting of
a. three members?
b. four or five members?

14. How many ways can a committee of four accountants and five lawyers be selected from nine
accountants and eight lawyers?

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

Exercises 8.4
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Solve only 2 problems: Get additional points for 2 more problems correctly solved

1. A coin is tossed three times. Find the probabilities of the following:

a. the probability of getting one head
b. the probability of getting two heads
c. the probability of getting three heads
2. A card is drawn from a deck of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the probability of having
a. a king
b. a queen
c. a spade
d. a black card
3. One card is selected at random from cards numbered 1 to 90. Find the probability that the number on
the cards is
a. divisible by 6
b. prime
4. A coin is weighted so that the head is two times as likely to appear as the tail. Find
a. P(H)
b. P(T)
5. Three students, Alice, Beth and Caria are in a race. Alice and Beth have the same probability of
winning and each is twice as likely to win as Caria. Find
a. Alice wins
b. Beth wins
c. Caria wins
d. Find the probability of an event if the odds that it will occur are 2 and 1.
6. In a race, the odds that David will win are 2 or 3 and the odds that Eunice will win are 1 to 4. find
the probability that
a. David wins
b. Eunice wins
7. A card is drawn from a deck of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the probability of having
a. a queen or a king
b. a six or a face card
c. a jack or a face of card
d. a two or a black card
e. an ace, a king, a queen or a jack
f. not a king
g. not an ace nor a spade
8. Three students, Ferdie, Greg and Hanna are in a race. Ferdie is twice as likely to win as Greg, and
Greg is thrice as likely to win as Hanna. Find the probability that
a. Ferdie wins
b. Greg wins
c. Greg or Hanna wins
d. Ferdie or Greg wins

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

. Exercises 8.5
PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS

Solve only 2 problems: Get additional points for 2 more problems correctly solved

1. A bowl contains 4 red, 5 blue and 6 white balls. if 4 balls are taken at random with replacement, find
the probability of having
a. 4 blue balls
b. 4 white balls
c. 2 red balls
d. 3 blue balls
e. 2 red, 1 blue and 1 white balls

2. A bowl contains 4 red, 5 blue and 6 white balls. if 4 balls are taken at random without replacement,
find the probability of having
a. 4 blue balls
b. 4 white balls
c. 2 red balls
d. 3 blue balls
e. 2 red, 1 blue and 1 white balls

3. Of 10 girls in a class, 3 speak Cebuano. If two girls are chosen at random, what is the probability
that
a. both speak Cebuano
b. neither speak Cebuano

4. Three bolts and three nuts are put in a box. If two parts are chosen at random without replacement,
find the probability that
a. both are bolts
b. both are nuts
c. one is a bolt and one is a nut

5. Four cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the probability of
having
a. four aces
b. four hearts
c. two aces and two kings

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SPEC PA 104 -Elementary Statistics Module 8. Probability

EXERCISE NO. 8
PROBABILITY

Name: ________________________________ Date submitted:__________________

Course and Year: _________________________ Rating: _________________

ANSWERS

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