Introduction

Pakistan is the world's fifth most populous country, with a population exceeding 240 million people, and
its rapid growth presents both opportunities and challenges. The country's high population growth rate,
estimated at around 2% annually, is driven by a combination of socio-economic, cultural, and political
factors. Key contributors include high fertility rates, limited access to family planning services, early
marriages, and cultural preferences for larger families. Additionally, urbanization, economic instability,
and inadequate education, particularly for women, further influence population trends. While a young
and growing workforce could potentially boost economic development, unchecked population growth
strains resources, exacerbates poverty, and complicates infrastructure and service delivery.
Understanding the factors behind Pakistan's population expansion is crucial for policymakers to
implement effective strategies that balance demographic growth with sustainable development.

Factors affecting the Population Growth of Pakistan

Cost of education

Education costs in Pakistan significantly impact population growth due to the financial burden it places
on families. Many families are unable to afford sending their children to school because they must spend
their limited resources on basic necessities like food and shelter. This financial constraint leads to a
higher number of children not enrolled in education, contributing to a larger youth population that may
struggle to find employment and contribute to economic growth.

Additionally, the government's budget for education has not grown in line with the country's increasing
population, leading to insufficient investment in educational institutions and programs.This
underinvestment results in a deteriorated education system with lower learning outcomes, fewer
qualified teachers, and fewer students completing primary school. Consequently, the lack of quality
education exacerbates poverty and hinders economic development, which in turn affects population
growth.

Furthermore, the high population growth rate in Pakistan, with 64% of the population under the age of
30, puts immense pressure on the education system to provide adequate schooling for all children.The
inability to integrate this large youth population into the education system and labor market could lead
to significant social and economic challenges, including unemployment and political instability.

Government policy
Government policy significantly affects population growth in Pakistan through various initiatives aimed
at controlling fertility rates and promoting family planning. Since 1965, Pakistan has had an official policy
to control population growth, which includes family planning programs designed to educate women
about the benefits of birth control and provide access to contraceptive methods. However, these
policies have not yielded substantial results due to a lack of political commitment and consistent
implementation.

In the 1990s, under Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the government established 1,250 family welfare
centers to educate women in rural areas about family planning. This effort led to a decline in the
population growth rate, but the overall impact was limited. The basic model of the family planning
program relies on women seeking services themselves, which has not been effective in reducing the
population growth rate.

Education plays a crucial role in population control. Higher literacy rates, particularly among women,
correlate with lower fertility rates. However, Pakistan's literacy rate is relatively low, at 45%, with
women accounting for 33% of this illiteracy. The government and NGOs have recognized the importance
of education in curbing population growth and have promoted awareness programs to educate people
about the negative effects of overpopulation.

Political instability and frequent changes in leadership have contributed to inconsistent strategies and
weak implementation of family planning programs. The lack of a consistent policy approach and the
absence of long-term commitment from successive governments have hindered the effectiveness of
these initiatives. Additionally, the focus on women in family planning programs has often neglected the
role of men in reproductive decisions, further limiting the success of these policies.

Economic growth

Economic growth in Pakistan can both positively and negatively impact population growth. On one
hand, economic development can lead to improvements in healthcare and nutrition, which can reduce
infant mortality and increase life expectancy, thereby contributing to population growth. On the other
hand, economic growth can also lead to higher living standards and urbanization, which may result in
lower fertility rates as families opt for smaller families to invest more in the education and health of
their children.

The relationship between economic growth and population growth is complex and can vary over time. In
the short term, a growing population can provide a larger workforce, which can boost economic growth
through increased labor supply. However, if the population grows too rapidly, it can strain resources and
infrastructure, potentially hindering economic development.

In Pakistan, demographic transition has been identified as a key factor in shaping economic
development. The demographic transition model suggests that as a country moves from a high birth and
death rate to a low birth and death rate, the population initially grows rapidly but then stabilizes. This
transition can create opportunities for economic growth if the country can effectively manage its
workforce and provide adequate healthcare and education.

Efforts to manage population growth in Pakistan include improving access to education and healthcare,
particularly for women, as higher levels of education and better health services are associated with
lower fertility rates. Additionally, policies aimed at economic diversification and job creation can help
absorb the growing workforce and reduce unemployment, which is a significant challenge in a rapidly
growing population.

Healthcare standard

Healthcare standards in Pakistan significantly affect its population growth through several mechanisms.
Firstly, inadequate healthcare access and poor management contribute to higher disease burdens,
particularly in rural areas, leading to higher mortality rates. Secondly, the lack of preventive healthcare
services and insufficient focus on maternal and child health can result in higher incidences of premature
births and complications, which can increase infant and maternal mortality rates.Additionally, the
prevalence of communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) also impacts population
growth.

On the other hand, improvements in healthcare can lead to better health outcomes and lower mortality
rates, which can contribute to population growth. For instance, the introduction of the Sehat Sahulat
Program (SSP) aims to provide financial health protection to all citizens against extraordinary healthcare
expenditure, thereby reducing the financial burden of healthcare and increasing access to healthcare
services. This can lead to better health outcomes and potentially lower mortality rates, contributing to
population growth.

Moreover, Pakistan's healthcare system faces significant challenges, including insufficient funding,
inadequate healthcare workforce and infrastructure, and inequitable distribution of resources. These
challenges can hinder the effectiveness of healthcare services and limit their ability to positively impact
population growth. Addressing these challenges is crucial for improving healthcare standards and
achieving sustainable development goals by 2030.

Stability of the society

The stability of society in Pakistan significantly influences its population growth. Political instability,
economic challenges, and social issues contribute to a high fertility rate and rapid population growth.
For instance, Pakistan's total fertility rate is 3.56 children per woman as of the DHS 2017-18 survey ,
indicating a high birth rate. This rate is influenced by factors such as weak political institutions,
inadequate family planning programs, and socio-cultural barriers that hinder access to contraception.
Religious and cultural factors also play a role in population growth. Religious controversies about family
planning and the belief that it is un-Islamic have undermined political support for family planning
initiatives.3 Additionally, the practice of purdah, where women are secluded from public view, makes it
more difficult for them to obtain social services, including family planning.

Economic instability further exacerbates population growth. High unemployment and inflation rates,
combined with income inequality, have led to increased poverty, which in turn fuels population growth
as families seek to ensure their economic security through larger families.56 The economic challenges
have also hindered the implementation of effective family planning programs and policies.3

Net migration

Net migration in Pakistan in 2023 had a significant impact on the country's population growth. The net
migration rate for Pakistan in 2023 was -0.874 per 1000 population, a 5.1% decline from 2022.This
negative rate indicates that more people were leaving Pakistan than entering it, which can contribute to
a decrease in population growth.

However, Pakistan's overall population growth is still relatively high, with the population growth
compared to the previous year standing at 1.96% in 2023.2 Despite the negative net migration rate,
other factors such as high birth rates and low death rates continue to support population growth.

The net migration rate is just one component of population growth, which is also influenced by fertility
and mortality rates. In 2023, Pakistan's population was 241,492,917, with an annual growth rate of
+2.55%. This indicates that while net migration is negative, other demographic factors are driving
population growth.

Availability of contraception

In Pakistan, the availability of contraception significantly impacts population growth. According to the
Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS) dataset from 1990 to 2018, the use of contraception is
associated with various socio-demographic factors, including age, education, and economic status.

The total fertility rate in Pakistan is high, at 4.1 children per woman, with 3.3 children in urban settings
and 4.5 in rural areas.Despite this, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) remains relatively low,
contributing to a high population growth rate of 1.9% annually.

Factors affecting the availability and use of contraception include non-availability of services, traditional
beliefs, and misconceptions about contraceptives.For instance, women with no education have a lower
prevalence of contraceptive use compared to those with higher education levels.

Urban areas have a higher prevalence of contraceptive use compared to rural areas, with a prevalence
ratio (PR) of 1.50 and an adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) of 1.08 for urban areas.Similarly, women from
wealthier households are more likely to use contraception than those from poorer households, with the
richest quintile having a PR of 2.98 and an APR of 2.10.

The government of Pakistan has acknowledged the negative effects of high population growth on
development and has made commitments to improve access to family planning services as part of the
FP2030 initiative.By 2030, Pakistan aims to empower women and girls and ensure that all couples can
freely and responsibly decide the number of their children, maintaining a balance between family size
and resources.

Efforts to increase contraceptive availability and usage include improving the quality of services and
making family planning centers more accessible.These initiatives are crucial for reducing the fertility rate
and addressing the unmet need for contraception, thereby contributing to sustainable population
growth and economic development

Cultural attitudes to family size

In Pakistan, cultural attitudes towards family size significantly influence the country's population growth.
Traditionally, families are patriarchal and patrilineal, with men as the primary breadwinners and women
expected to manage domestic duties and child-rearing.This cultural norm often leads to a preference for
larger families, as children are seen as blessings and potential sources of support in old age.

Religious and cultural beliefs also play a crucial role. Many rural and backward areas still hold the belief
that having more children is a blessing from God, and there is a reluctance to use family planning
services due to concerns about social stigma or religious prohibitions. Additionally, the concept of honor
is deeply ingrained in Pakistani society, and women are sometimes seen as particularly vulnerable and in
need of protection, which can reinforce traditional family structures and attitudes towards family size.

The high fertility rate in Pakistan, with an average of 4-5 children per woman, is partly attributed to
these cultural attitudes.However, there are efforts to change these norms through education and
awareness programs. The government and NGOs are working to promote family planning and educate
women about the benefits of smaller families and the use of contraception.

Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of family planning programs has been limited, particularly in
rural areas where awareness and access to services are lower.The lack of education, especially among
women, contributes to the continuation of high fertility rates. Improving education and awareness can
help shift cultural attitudes towards smaller family sizes, which could help reduce population growth.
Social norm

Social norms in Pakistan significantly influence population growth through various cultural and societal
practices. One major factor is the cultural emphasis on large families, which is often driven by social
expectations and norms that value having multiple children. This cultural preference for larger families
contributes to high fertility rates, which in turn drives population growth.

Another social norm that affects population growth is the traditional view of women's roles and their
reproductive rights. Historically, women have faced societal pressures that limit their access to family
planning and reproductive health services, leading to higher birth rates. Additionally, the stigma
associated with women's sexual independence and the lack of equal treatment compared to men in
matters of sexuality can also contribute to higher fertility rates among women.

Social norms also play a role in the utilization of family planning services. Despite the presence of family
planning programs since the 1950s and 1960s, there has been limited uptake due to cultural and
religious beliefs that discourage the use of contraception. These norms can hinder efforts to reduce
population growth through voluntary family planning.

Female Labor - Market Participation

Female labor market participation in Pakistan is influenced by several factors and has implications for
the country's population growth. According to recent data, the female labor force participation rate in
Pakistan was 24.46% in 2023, which is below regional averages and indicates a significant gender gap in
labor force participation.

The low rate of female labor force participation is often attributed to social norms, education levels, and
household responsibilities. Social norms and conservative attitudes continue to constrain women's
ability to work outside the home, particularly in regions like South Asia.Education plays a pivotal role in
female labor force participation, as higher education levels are associated with increased participation.
However, the literacy rate for women in Pakistan is relatively low, standing at 36%, which limits their
participation in the labor market.

Household responsibilities also play a critical role. Women with more dependents in the household are
less likely to participate in the labor market due to the demands of child-rearing and other domestic
duties. This dynamic can affect population growth indirectly by influencing fertility rates and family
planning decisions. When women are more integrated into the labor market, they may have more
control over their reproductive choices and potentially lower fertility rates, which can contribute to
slower population growth.

Moreover, the lack of mobility and safety concerns for women outside their homes further restrict their
labor market participation. Women who feel unsafe or lack the freedom to travel are less likely to
engage in formal employment, which can perpetuate cycles of lower economic participation and slower
economic growth.
Conclusion

Pakistan's population growth is influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic, cultural, and

political factors. High education costs, inadequate government investment in schooling, and poor
learning outcomes contribute to lower literacy rates, particularly among women, perpetuating high
fertility rates and hindering economic development. Government policies on family planning have been
inconsistent due to weak political commitment, religious resistance, and a lack of male involvement in
reproductive decisions. Economic instability and unemployment further exacerbate population growth,
as larger families are often seen as a means of financial security.

Healthcare standards remain insufficient, with high maternal and infant mortality rates, limited access to
contraception, and inadequate public health infrastructure. Cultural norms favoring large families,
patriarchal structures, and low female empowerment also sustain high birth rates. Additionally, low
female labor force participation, driven by societal restrictions and household responsibilities, limits
women's autonomy in family planning decisions.

While net migration has a minor dampening effect on population growth, it is outweighed by high
fertility rates. To achieve sustainable population control, Pakistan must prioritize education (especially
for girls), improve healthcare access, strengthen family planning programs, and promote women's
economic participation. Addressing these challenges holistically can help stabilize population growth,
reduce poverty, and foster long-term socio-economic development.