Chapter 10 – Hypothesis

Tests Regarding a Parameter

OUTLINE Putting It Together
10.1 The Language of Hypothesis Testing In Chapter 9, we mentioned there are two types
10.2 Hypothesis Tests for a Population of inferential statistics:
Proportion
10.2A Hypothesis Tests on a Population (1) estimation
Proportion with Simulation (2) hypothesis testing
10.2B Hypothesis Tests on a Population
Proportion Using the Normal Model We have already discussed procedures for
10.3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population estimating the population proportion and the
Mean population mean.
10.3A Hypothesis Tests on a Population
Mean Using Simulation and the We now focus our attention on hypothesis
Bootstrap testing. Hypothesis testing is used to test
10.4 Putting It Together: Which Procedure statements regarding a characteristic of one or
Do I Use? more populations. In this chapter, we will test
hypotheses regarding a single population
parameter, including the population proportion
and the population mean.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

Section 10.1
The Language of Hypothesis Testing
Objectives
 Determine the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Explain Type I and Type II Errors

 State Conclusions to Hypothesis Tests

Answer the following after watching the video about whether your friend is cheating.
1) After determining that the first five tosses are all tails is unlikely, what are the two possible conclusions
that can be drawn?

Objective 1: Determine the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Answer the following (2 – 7) after watching the video on the language of hypothesis testing.
2) What is a hypothesis?

3) State the definition of hypothesis testing.

We test statements about a population parameter using sample data, because it is usually impossible to
gain access to the entire population.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

4) List the 3 steps in hypothesis testing.

5) State the definition of the null hypothesis.

6) State the definition of the alternative hypothesis.

7) List the three ways to set up the null and alternative hypotheses.
Two-tailed test

Left-tailed test

Right-tailed test

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 Section 10.1: The Language of Hypothesis Testing

8) What type of tests are referred to as one-tailed tests?

9) What determines the structure of the alternative hypothesis (two-tailed, left-tailed, or right-tailed?)

Example 1 Forming Hypotheses

For each situation, determine the null and alternative hypotheses. State whether the test is two-tailed, left-
tailed, or right-tailed.

A) The Medco pharmaceutical company has just developed a new antibiotic for children. Two percent of
children taking competing antibiotics experience headaches as a side effect. A researcher for the Food and
Drug Administration wants to know if the percentage of children taking the new antibiotic and
experiencing headaches as a side effect is different than 2%.

B) A placement exam is structured so the mean time to complete the exam is 60 minutes. A community
college administrator is concerned that the exam takes longer than 60 minutes.

C) The standard deviation of the contents in a 64-ounce bottle of detergent using an old filling machine is
0.23 ounce. The manufacturer wants to know if a new filling machine has less variability.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

Objective 2: Explain Type I and Type II Errors

10) What type of error is called a Type I error?

11) What type of error is called a Type II error?

Answer the following after watching the video that illustrates the four outcomes from hypothesis
testing.
12) In a jury trial, what are the null and alternative hypotheses?

13) What jury decision is associated with rejecting the null hypothesis?

14) What jury decision is associated with failing to reject the null hypothesis?

15) Is the null hypothesis ever declared “true”?

16) In a jury trial, what decision is equivalent to making a Type I error?

17) In a jury trial, what decision is equivalent to making a Type II error?

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 Section 10.1: The Language of Hypothesis Testing

18) Sketch the chart that illustrates the four outcomes from hypothesis testing.

Example 2 Type I and Type II Errors

The Medco pharmaceutical company has just developed a new antibiotic. Two percent of children taking
competing antibiotics experience headaches as a side effect. A researcher for the Food and Drug
Administration wishes to know if the percentage of children taking the new antibiotic who experience a
headache as a side effect is different than 2%.
The researcher conducts a hypothesis test with H0: p = 0.02 and H1: p ≠ 0.02.

Explain what it would mean to make a (A) Type I error and (B) Type II error.

19) What symbols do we use to denote the probability of making a Type I error and the probability of
making a Type II error?

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

20) What does the level of significance represent?

21) What does the choice of the level of significance depend on?

22) Why is the level of significance not always set at α=0.01?

Objective 3: State Conclusions to Hypothesis Tests

It is important to recognize that we never accept the null hypothesis. Sample evidence can never prove the
null hypothesis to be true. By not rejecting the null hypothesis, we are saying that the evidence indicates
that the null hypothesis could be true or that the sample evidence is consistent with the statement in the
null hypothesis.

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 Section 10.1: The Language of Hypothesis Testing

Example 3 Stating the Conclusion

The Medco pharmaceutical company has just developed a new antibiotic. Two percent of children taking
competing antibiotics experience a headache as a side effect. A researcher for the Food and Drug
Administration believes that the proportion of children taking the new antibiotic who experience a
headache as a side effect is different than 0.02. So the null hypothesis is H 0 : p  0.02 and the alternative
hypothesis is H1 : p  0.02 .

A) Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis is rejected. State the conclusion.

B) Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected. State the conclusion.

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 Section 10.2: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

Section 10.2
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion
Objectives
 Explain the Logic of Hypothesis Testing

 Test Hypotheses about a Population Proportion

 Test Hypotheses about a Population Proportion Using the Binomial Probability

Distribution

Objective 1: Explain the Logic of Hypothesis Testing

The Political Poll applet will help you to determine what would be convincing evidence that the
population proportion of registered voters who are in favor of a certain policy is greater than 50%.

Answer the following after using the Political Poll applet.

1) What is the center of the distribution when you simulate 1000 samples of 500 registered voters?

2) As the sample proportion increases from 52% to 54% to 56%, what happens to the proportion of
surveys that resulted in a sample proportion that was greater than or equal to the given sample proportion?

3) Explain how you determined whether the proportion of voters in favor of this policy is greater than 0.5.

4) Give the definition of what it means for a result to be statistically significant.

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 Section 10.2: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

Note: The sample distribution of p̂ is approximately normal, with mean  p̂  p and standard deviation

p 1  p 
 pˆ  , provided that the following requirements are satisfied:
n

The sample is a simple random sample.

np 1  p   10
The sampled values are independent of each other  n  0.05 N  .

A criterion for testing hypotheses is to determine how likely the observed sample proportion is under the
assumption that the statement in the null hypothesis is true.

For example, for the scenario in Part (C) of the Logic using the Political Poll applet, the probability of
obtaining a sample proportion of 0.52 or higher from a population whose proportion is assumed to be
p = 0.5 is 0.1855.

The likelihood of obtaining a sample statistic can be obtained either through simulation or through the use
of the normal model. Both approaches give similar results.

5) Give the definition of a P-value.

6) Explain how to determine whether the null hypothesis should be rejected using the P-value approach.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

7) The lower the P-value, the stronger the evidence against the statement in the null hypothesis.
Complete the following table for describing the strength of evidence against the statement in the null
hypothesis using the P-value.

P-Value Conclusion

P-value > 0.10

0.05 < P-value < 0.10

0.01 < P-value < 0.05

0.001 < P-value < 0.01

P-value < 0.001

Figure 4 illustrates that obtaining a sample proportion of 0.54 or higher from a population whose
proportion is 0.5 is unlikely. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that p=0.5 and conclude that p>0.5.
We do not know what the population proportion of registered voters who are in favor of the policy is, but
we have evidence to say that it is greater than 0.5 (a majority).

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 Section 10.2: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

Objective 2: Test Hypotheses about a Population Proportion

8) What are the three conditions that must be satisfied before testing a hypothesis regarding a population
proportion, p?

9) State the five steps for testing a hypothesis about a population proportion, p.

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3 (By Hand) Step 3 (Using Technology)

Step 4

Step 5

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

Example 1 Testing a Hypothesis about a Population Proportion: Left-Tailed Test

Humira is a medication used to treat Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). In clinical trials of Humira, 705 subjects
diagnosed with RA were administered 40 mg of Humira every other week. Of the 705 subjects, 66
reported nausea as a side effect. It is known that the proportion of RA subjects in similar studies receiving
a placebo who report nausea as a side effect is 0.08. Does the sample evidence represent significant
evidence that a higher proportion of subjects receiving Humira experience nausea as a side effect than
those taking a placebo? Use the   0.05 level of significance. Source: rxabbvie.com

Caution: In Example 1 we do not have enough evidence to reject the statement in the null hypothesis. In
other words, it is not unusual to obtain a sample proportion of 0.094 from a population whose proportion
is 0.08. However, this does not imply that we are accepting the statement in the null hypothesis (that is,
we are not saying that the proportion of subjects with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) taking Humira who
experience nausea is ). We are only saying we do not have enough evidence to conclude that the
proportion is greater than 0.08.

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 Section 10.2: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

Example 2 Testing a Hypothesis about a Population Proportion: Two-Tailed Test

Currently, 53% of Americans believe that gun laws should be stricter. The Pew Research Center surveyed
780 randomly selected Americans with at least a bachelor's degree and found that 457 believed that gun
laws should be stricter. Does this result suggest that the proportion of Americans with at least a bachelor's
degree feel differently than the general American population when it comes to gun laws? Use the   0.1
level of significance.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

10) Explain how to make a decision about the null hypothesis when performing a two-tailed test using
confidence intervals.

Example 3 Testing a Hypothesis Using a Confidence Interval

A 2009 study by Princeton Survey Research Associates International found that 34% of teenagers text
while driving. A recent study conducted by AT&T found that 515 of 1200 randomly selected teens had
texted while driving. Do the results of this study suggest that the proportion of teens who text while
driving has changed since 2009? Use a 95% confidence interval to answer the question.

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 Section 10.2: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

Objective 3: Test Hypotheses about a Population Proportion Using the Binomial Probability
Distribution

For the sampling distribution of p̂ to be approximately normal, we require that np 1  p  be at least 10.
If this requirement is not satisfied, we use the binomial probability formula to determine the P-value.

Example 4 Hypothesis Test for a Population Proportion: Small Sample Size

According to CTIA, 72% of all adult Americans would rather give up chocolate than their cell phone.
Tanisha conducted a survey of 35 randomly selected teens between the ages of 13 and 17 years of age and
found 28 would rather give up chocolate than their cell phone. At the α = 0.1 level of significance, is there
evidence that the proportion of teens between the ages of 13 and 17 who would rather give up chocolate
than their cell phone is higher than that of adult Americans?

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 Section 10.3: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean

Section 10.3
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean
Objectives
 Test Hypotheses about a Mean

 Explain the Difference between Statistical Significance and Practical Significance

Objective 1: Test Hypotheses about a Mean

Answer the following after watching the video that explains the procedure for testing hypotheses
about a mean.
1) What are the three conditions that must be satisfied before testing a hypothesis regarding a population
mean, ?

2) State the five steps for testing a hypothesis about a population mean, .

Step 1

Step 2

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

Step 3 (By Hand) Step 3 (Using Technology)

Step 4

Step 5

3) What tool is used to determine if the sample is drawn from a population that is normally distributed?

4) What tool is used to determine if the sample contains outliers?

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 Section 10.3: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean

Example 1 Testing a Hypothesis about a Population Mean: Large Sample

The mean debt payment for individuals with a bachelor’s degree in the United States is $242.64. (Source:
National Center for Education Statistics). In a random sample of 70 individuals with a bachelor’s degree
from Wyoming, the mean debt payment is $176.46 with a standard deviation of $163.56 (based on data
obtained from Truebill and the National Center for Education Statistics). Does the sample data suggest
that the mean debt payment in Wyoming is less than that in the United States? Use the α = 0.05 level of
significance.

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Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

Example 2 Testing a Hypothesis about a Population Mean: Small Sample

The “fun size” of a Snickers bar is supposed to weigh 20 grams. Because the penalty for selling candy
bars under their advertised weight is severe, the manufacturer calibrates the machine so that the mean
weight is 20.1 grams. The quality control engineer at Mars, the Snickers manufacturer, is concerned about
the calibration. He obtains a random sample of 11 candy bars, weighs them, and obtains the data in Table
1. Should the machine be shut down and calibrated? Because shutting down the plant is expensive, he
decides to conduct the test at the α = 0.01 level of significance.

Table 1
19.68 20.66 19.56
19.98 20.65 19.61
20.55 20.36 21.02
21.50 19.74
Data from Michael Carlisle, student at Joliet Junior College

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 Section 10.3: Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean

Objective 2: Explain the Difference between Statistical Significance and Practical

Significance

5) What does practical significance refer to?

Example 3 Statistical versus Practical Significance

According to the American Community Survey, the mean travel time to work in Collin County, Texas, is
27.6 minutes. The Department of Transportation reprogrammed all the traffic lights in Collin County in
an attempt to reduce travel time. To determine whether there is evidence that travel time has decreased as
a result of the reprogramming, the Department of Transportation obtains a random sample of 2500
commuters, records their travel time to work, and finds a sample mean of 27.3 minutes with a standard
deviation of 8.5 minutes. Does this result suggest that travel time has decreased at the α = 0.05 level of
significance?

Large sample sizes can lead to results that are statistically significant, whereas the difference between the
statistic and parameter in the null hypothesis is not enough to be considered practically significant.

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