Unit – I_ Introduction to Risk Management
Unit – I_ Introduction to Risk Management
Risk can be defined as the chance of loss or an unfavorable outcome associated with an action.
In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an
investment decision. In general, as investment risks rise, investors seek higher returns to
compensate themselves for taking such risks.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an
organization’s capital and earnings. These threats, or risk, could stem from a wide variety of
sources, including financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents
and natural disasters. IT security threats and data-related risks, and the risk management
strategies to alleviate them have become a top priority for digitized companies. As a result, a
risk management plan increasingly includes companies’ processes for identifying and
controlling threats to its digital assets, including proprietary corporate data, a customer’s
personally identifiable information and intellectual property.
“Risk management” helps an organization to identify, evaluate, analyze, monitor, and mitigate
the risks that threaten the achievement of the organization’s strategic objectives in a disciplined
and systematic way.
2. Operational Risks
a. Definition: Risks arising from internal processes, systems, people, or day-to-day
operations.
b. Characteristics:
i. Includes disruptions in production, supply chain, or IT systems.
ii. Often controllable and require quick response.
Factory Machine Breakdowns
Summary:
A global electronics manufacturer faced a sudden breakdown of a key production line due to
inadequate maintenance. This caused a two-week halt in operations, delayed shipments, and loss
of client trust.
Risks Involved:
● Disruption in internal processes (operational risk).
● Failure to mitigate preventable risks through proper maintenance.
IT System Failures in Banks
Summary:
In 2018, a major bank(TSB Bank in the United Kingdom) experienced an IT system outage due
to a failed upgrade, causing customers to lose access to online banking and ATMs for days. The
incident led to customer complaints and regulatory scrutiny.
Risks Involved:
● IT system disruption (operational risk).
● Negative customer experience and reputational damage.
3. Financial Risks
a. Definition: Risks related to an organization’s financial performance and stability.
b. Types:
i. Credit Risk: Risk of customers or partners defaulting on payments.
ii. Market Risk: Losses due to changes in market factors like interest rates
or currency exchange rates.
iii. Liquidity Risk: Inability to meet short-term financial obligations due to
lack of cash flow.
Lehman Brothers Collapse (2008)
Summary:
Lehman Brothers held a large portfolio of subprime mortgage-backed securities. When housing
prices fell, defaults rose, and the firm's financial position weakened. The lack of liquidity to
cover obligations led to its bankruptcy, triggering the global financial crisis.
Risks Involved:
● Exposure to credit risk due to subprime mortgages.
● Liquidity risk, as the firm failed to meet financial obligations.
Kingfisher Airlines' Loan Defaults
Summary:
Kingfisher Airlines heavily borrowed to fund operations and expansion. With rising operational
costs and declining revenues, the airline failed to repay loans, leading to asset seizures and
operational shutdown.
Risks Involved:
● Credit risk from loan defaults.
● Operational inefficiencies compounding financial issues.
4. Compliance Risks
a. Definition: Risks arising from failure to comply with laws, regulations, or
standards.
b. Characteristics:
i. Increasingly important due to stricter global regulations.
ii. Non-compliance can lead to fines, penalties, or operational shutdowns.
Volkswagen Emissions Scandal (2015)
Summary:
Volkswagen installed software to cheat emissions tests in its diesel vehicles. When discovered,
the company faced billions in fines, lawsuits, and reputational damage. The scandal highlighted
non-compliance with environmental standards.
Risks Involved:
● Compliance risk due to regulatory violations.
● Reputational risk from unethical practices.
Food Companies' Safety Recalls
Summary:
A leading food brand failed to meet health and safety standards, leading to contaminated
products reaching consumers. This resulted in widespread recalls and financial penalties.
Risks Involved:
● Compliance risk from regulatory non-adherence.
● Operational risk in quality control processes.
5. Reputational Risks
a. Definition: Risks that damage an organization’s brand or public image.
b. Characteristics:
i. Often arise from social media backlash, unethical practices, or customer
dissatisfaction.
ii. Difficult to quantify but significantly impacts business success.
Social Media Backlash on Customer Service
Summary:
A fast-food chain faced backlash when a viral tweet highlighted poor customer service. The
incident led to negative publicity, a drop in sales, and the need for damage control campaigns.
Risks Involved:
● Reputational risk from customer dissatisfaction.
● Operational risk in service delivery.
Data Breaches and Customer Confidence
Summary:
An e-commerce platform suffered a data breach exposing customer information. The incident
resulted in a loss of trust, reduced sales, and regulatory fines.
Risks Involved:
● Reputational risk from security lapses.
● Financial risk due to penalties and lost revenue.
6. Credit Risk
a. Definition: Risks arising when borrowers or counterparties fail to meet their
financial obligations.
b. Characteristics:
i. Directly linked to lending and creditworthiness.
ii. Affects cash flow and profitability.
iii. Evaluated using credit scores, repayment history, and risk mitigation
measures like collateral.
Lehman Brothers (2008)
Summary:
Lehman Brothers, a major financial institution, heavily invested in subprime mortgage-backed
securities. When the housing market collapsed, borrowers defaulted, leaving the firm with
massive losses. The lack of adequate risk management and overexposure to high-risk assets led
to its bankruptcy, marking one of the largest financial collapses in history.
Risks Involved:
● Credit Risk: Borrower defaults on subprime mortgages.
● Market Risk: Losses from declining asset values during the financial crisis.
Kingfisher Airlines
Summary:
Kingfisher Airlines faced mounting debts due to poor financial management and operational
inefficiencies. Its inability to generate sufficient revenue to repay loans resulted in defaults.
Despite attempting restructuring, the company lost its operating license and declared bankruptcy.
Risks Involved:
● Credit Risk: Default on loans.
● Operational Risk: Inefficiencies in cost management and operations.
7. Liquidity Risk
a. Definition: Risks of being unable to meet short-term financial obligations due to
insufficient cash or liquid assets.
b. Characteristics:
i. Affects day-to-day operations.
ii. Often arises from asset-liability mismatches or sudden cash flow needs.
Yes Bank (2020)
Summary:
Yes Bank, one of India's largest private sector banks, faced a severe liquidity crunch due to bad
loans and a sudden surge in withdrawals by depositors. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
imposed a moratorium to stabilize the situation. The crisis highlighted asset-liability mismatches
and poor risk assessment practices.
Risks Involved:
● Liquidity Risk: Insufficient liquid assets to meet withdrawal demands.
● Credit Risk: Exposure to non-performing assets (NPAs).
Evergrande (2021)
Summary:
Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, struggled to repay its massive debts
amid a slowdown in property sales. Its over-leveraged business model and inability to access
new funding triggered a liquidity crisis, impacting the global financial markets.
Risks Involved:
● Liquidity Risk: Inability to repay debts and meet operational expenses.
● Market Risk: Decline in property sales and falling investor confidence.
Outcomes The potential outcomes are known In uncertainty, the outcomes are
in risk. unknown.
Making projects more efficient: Businesses also use risk identification on a smaller
scale for individual projects or practices. Identifying risks early during the project
planning phase can help the team navigate the challenges more effectively by planning.
Example:
● Event Management: An event organizer identifies weather risks for an outdoor
event. To mitigate this, they book a backup indoor venue and arrange
weatherproof equipment, ensuring the event proceeds as planned.
● IT Projects: A software development team identifies the risk of scope creep
(adding features beyond the initial plan). They establish clear project boundaries
and communicate with stakeholders to keep the project on track.
2. Stakeholder interviews
Stakeholders are the people who have an interest in your project or business, and
interviewing them may help you better understand what they believe are the biggest risks.
Stakeholders often have invested significant resources, whether it be time, money, labour
or all three, into your business. They understand risk from an outsider's perspective as an
investor, not a labourer or leader. This viewpoint can help you learn what concerns your
investors and how to address it.
Example:
● Retail Business: A retail chain interviews investors who highlight risks related to rapid
expansion, such as inadequate supply chain infrastructure or market saturation. The
business slows its expansion plan to stabilize existing operations before growing further.
● Construction Project: A real estate developer interviews a financial partner who
identifies cash flow issues as a potential risk due to delayed payments from buyers. To
address this, the developer introduces milestone-based payment schedules.
3. NGT technique
The NGT, or nominal group technique, is another method of brainstorming that offers a
more in-depth approach to the subject. Participants write their own ideas about the
challenge without discussing it directly with other group members. Then, a senior
member of the team asks each participant for their thoughts, which are written on a chart
or whiteboard with overlapping items removed.
The team discusses each item to ensure everyone understands them, and then you can
work to prioritize each one. The team can explore the top three items further, analyzing
them and creating solutions. The NGT technique depends on honesty and teamwork and
provides a more comprehensive approach than brainstorming.
Example:
● Marketing Campaign: For an upcoming product launch, the marketing team uses NGT
to identify risks. Team members individually list potential issues, such as competitor
campaigns, insufficient ad reach, or negative feedback on social media. After discussion,
the team prioritizes managing competitor responses and optimizing ad targeting
strategies.
● Healthcare Project: In a hospital, staff use NGT to analyze risks in patient care.
Participants suggest concerns like understaffing, outdated equipment, and communication
gaps. The top issues are tackled first, leading to better patient outcomes.
4. Requirements review
A requirements review is a review of a project's labour, material or financial
requirements, and allows the team to analyze requirements often and identify potential
risks quickly. The team can complete a requirement’s review throughout the project
timeline to understand risks and requirements at each stage of production.
During production, requirements can change, which also may change the risk involved.
For example, if a process requires twice as much material as originally speculated, the
financial risk of the project rises because of additional costs.
Example:
● A construction company initially estimates 100 tons of cement for a building project.
Midway, they discover that the structural design needs an additional 50 tons due to safety
standards. This increase raises financial risks, so they secure additional funding or
reallocate budgeted resources to meet the need.
5. Project plans
A project plan is a basic outline of the project and its needs. This includes things like
material and labour needs, the timeline for the project and any risks that come with it.
A detailed project plan may help the team understand the nature of the project and what it
takes to reach the project's goal. It also allows investors and stakeholders to understand
what they're investing in and how the team progresses and offers a return on the initial
investment.
Example:
● For a software development project, the team creates a project plan detailing the tools
needed (e.g., AWS servers), human resources (5 developers, 2 testers), and a timeline
with milestones. The plan identifies a potential risk of delays due to server setup issues,
prompting them to schedule it earlier in the timeline.
● Investors use the plan to understand their expected return timeline and the risk factors
involved.
7. SWOT Analysis
A SWOT, or strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis, is a great way to
understand a project's or business's risks alongside other important factors. A thorough SWOT
analysis can show investors why a business or project is worthy of investment and helps the
team better understand their efficacy in reaching goals. A SWOT analysis examines four factors:
Strengths: Areas where the team excels and how they relate to projects.
Weaknesses: Areas where the team can improve to increase productivity and efficiency.
Opportunities: Areas where the team or business can improve or expand.
Threats: Areas of risk for the project or business and how the team can minimize those
risks.
Example:
● For a renewable energy startup:
○ Strengths: Innovative technology and expertise in solar panel manufacturing.
○ Weaknesses: High upfront costs and limited access to funding.
○ Opportunities: Growing demand for clean energy due to government subsidies.
○ Threats: Emerging competition and fluctuating raw material prices.
● Based on this analysis, the team decides to focus on securing long-term supplier contracts
(to mitigate raw material price volatility) and to leverage subsidies to enhance
competitiveness.