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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
52 views50 pages

The Beginner's Guide to Data Science Robert Ball download

The document is a promotional overview of 'The Beginner's Guide to Data Science' by Robert Ball and Brian Rague, along with links to various related educational resources and books. It emphasizes the practical application of data science techniques and tools for beginners. The book aims to help readers understand and analyze data effectively, providing a comprehensive introduction to the field.

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Robert Ball
Brian Rague

The Beginner’s
Guide to Data
Science
The Beginner’s Guide to Data Science
Robert Ball • Brian Rague

The Beginner’s Guide to Data


Science
Robert Ball Brian Rague
Weber State University Weber State University
Ogden, UT, USA Ogden, UT, USA

ISBN 978-3-031-07864-4    ISBN 978-3-031-07865-1 (eBook)


https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07865-1

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or
part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter
developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not
imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and
regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed
to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty,
expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Laura, with all my heart – R.B.
To my family Gina, Justin, Maria, Alexis, and Roanna
for their enduring love and support – B.W.R.
Preface

Data science does not broker in abstractions or theories. One of the primary objectives of data
science is to make sense of a large number of observations, and consequently to make sense of
the real world. The type of analysis performed in data science is deeply rooted in the art of
acquiring, wrangling, and visualizing information. Information either stored on servers, in the
cloud, or in our brains can be said to have substance. Bits and bytes have weight both meta-
phorically and physically.
Our ability to decipher and filter large amounts of sensory data allows us to navigate suc-
cessfully through our busy and sometimes dangerous world. Similarly, data science provides
the methodology and tools to accurately interpret an increasing volume of incoming informa-
tion in order to discern patterns, evaluate trends, and make the right decisions. The results of
data science analysis provide real-world answers to real-world questions.
This book is about real-world questions and about arriving at the answers as expeditiously
and precisely as possible. On the surface, these inquiries may appear to require simple, straight-
forward responses – yes or no. However, it is the depth and breadth of the question and the
ramifications inherent in the answer that demand our focus and respect.
In one possible scenario, responding to the question in the affirmative may take us down a
path involving significantly greater personal or financial commitments and resources than if
the answer were a succinct and definitive “no.” As with any true scientific investigation,
answers should lead to further questions. The bottom line is that within the data science realm,
answers and questions are equivalent in importance and the tools we use to derive the end
results must rise to the level of proficiency and accuracy required by the analytical demands
imposed by both question and answer.
Given a well-posed question, the topics in this book provide concise descriptions of the
techniques and tools used in data science to generate viable answers. Data science as a disci-
pline leverages strategies and technologies derived from computer science, statistics, and vari-
ous business domains. Data science is the progeny of these fields but does not belong to any
particular one.
The data scientist is an inter-disciplinarian, utilizing the core knowledge from several areas
to make assessments of current data for the purposes of determining future directions in
research and analysis. This book is intended for the beginning application-oriented data scien-
tist who wishes to learn the essential methods necessary to extract meaning from numbers.

Is This a Textbook or a Practitioner’s Book?

Yes – to both.
We believe that a modern textbook should cover the materials and applications that a stu-
dent needs. Unlike traditional textbooks in which the student begins at “Chap. 1” and reads
sequentially to the last chapter, we have made every effort to present and package the essential
topics contained in this book so that the student is free to utilize select chapters based solely on
their interests.

vii
viii Preface

As a result, the chapters contained in this book are not necessarily meant to be read in the
order in which they appear.

Programming Examples and Images

There are many Python example programs used throughout this book. We have done our best
to make these examples readily available at a separate downloadable location. In addition,
almost every image used in this book was created by Python code. For these plots and dia-
grams, the source code designed to create the image is cited and available. The current down-
load location for the code included in this book is the URL: https://github.com/robertball/
Beginners-Guide-Data-Science
There are three main reasons for posting the Python code at this separate location:
• There are many instances when having the code occupy unnecessary space in the book is
neither meaningful nor instructive, so we have maintained the code separately to be perused,
executed, and evaluated at your leisure.
• Python and its various associated libraries change. As a result, there may come a time when
certain sample programs in the book no longer run efficiently or successfully on modern
computers. Under these special circumstances we will respond by updating the relevant
programs so they remain functional and informative. We cannot easily update the content of
this book, but we can easily revise and refine downloadable code.
• Copying directly from this book to another resource such as a development environment
often inadvertently transfers various formatting issues. Access to a download of the original
code can avoid these formatting and program structure issues altogether.
Code Formatting
We differentiate code examples from the narrative text of the book. The following is an exam-
ple of a code snippet:

File: an_example_file_name.py (does not actually exist – just an example)


print('This prints out text.')
print('This does too!')

Definitions
We highlight definitions in the book by italicizing the term being described.
Ship Names, Movie Names, Book Names, and Latin
Following modern conventions, we have also italicized ship names like the HMS Titanic (i.e.,
The Titanic), movie names like Back to the Future, book names like Wizard of Oz, and Latin
words or phrases like a priori.
Emphasis
We designate special emphasis for specific points and statements by bolding them.

OgdenRobert Ball
UT, USA
OgdenBrian Rague
UT, USA 
Contents

1 I ntroduction to Data Science�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   1


1.1 Superpowers���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   2
1.2 What Is Data Science?�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   2
1.3 Predicting the Future�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   4
1.4 Understand the Process by Focusing on the End�������������������������������������������������   4
1.4.1 Actionable Insights ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������   5
1.4.2 Tell Stories with Data�������������������������������������������������������������������������������   5
1.4.3 Communicate Complex Results���������������������������������������������������������������   6
1.4.4 Create Consumable Predictive Products �������������������������������������������������   6
1.4.5 Aligning Business Goals with the Data Science Process������������������������   7
1.5 It Is All About the Question!�������������������������������������������������������������������������������   7
1.5.1 Classification Questions���������������������������������������������������������������������������   8
1.5.2 Anomaly Detection ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������   8
1.5.3 Prediction/Forecasting�����������������������������������������������������������������������������   9
1.5.4 Clustering�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   9
1.5.5 Recommendations����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10
1.5.6 Data Science Project Examples��������������������������������������������������������������� 10
1.6 Understanding vs Specific Tools������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11
1.7 Data Science Life Cycle��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11
1.8 Python vs R ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 12
1.9 Big Data, Data Analytics, and Data Science������������������������������������������������������� 12
2 Data Collection ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15
2.1 Data Creation������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15
2.2 IRB Approval������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16
2.3 HCI: A Case Study����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16
2.4 Data Gathering����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17
2.5 Databases������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18
2.6 Downloading Data����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19
2.7 Web Scraping������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20
2.8 Why Web Scraping?��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20
2.9 What Does It Really Mean to Perform Web Scraping?��������������������������������������� 21
2.9.1 Download a Webpage ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 21
2.9.2 Parse the Webpage����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 23
2.10 Web Scraping with BeautifulSoup and Selenium ����������������������������������������������� 27
3 Data Wrangling����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31
3.1 Data vs Information vs Knowledge��������������������������������������������������������������������� 31
3.2 From Data to Information ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32
3.3 Pandas ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 33
3.3.1 Series and Dataframe Basics������������������������������������������������������������������� 33
3.3.2 Dropping or Removing Data������������������������������������������������������������������� 37
3.3.3 Adding, Modifying Data, and Mapping��������������������������������������������������� 39
3.3.4 Changing Datatypes of Series or Columns ��������������������������������������������� 43

ix
x Contents

3.3.5 Conditionals in Dataframes and Series ��������������������������������������������������� 46


3.3.6 loc and iloc Functions ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48
3.3.7 Binning����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 50
3.3.8 Reshaping with Pivot, Pivot_Table, Groupby, Stack, Unstack,
and Transpose ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 54
3.3.9 Understanding Dataframe Indexes����������������������������������������������������������� 60
3.3.10 Common Statistics Functions, Counting, and Sorting����������������������������� 63
3.3.11 Different Encodings for Categorical Data����������������������������������������������� 65
4  rash Course on Descriptive Statistics���������������������������������������������������������������������
C 69
4.1 Min and Max������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 71
4.2 Count������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72
4.3 Mean ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72
4.4 Standard Deviation����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72
4.5 “Bell Curve” or Normal Distribution or Gaussian Distribution��������������������������� 74
4.6 Median����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 74
4.7 Quantile and Boxplots����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 74
4.8 Pandas “Describe” Function ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 76
4.9 Z-Score����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 76
4.10 Mode ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 77
4.11 Data Visualization Using Distributions��������������������������������������������������������������� 78
4.12 Basic Distribution Concepts�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 83
4.13 Probability����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 84
4.14 Percentile������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 85
4.15 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and Probability Density
Function (PDF) ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 85
4.16 Percent Point Function (PPF)������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 86
4.17 Skewness������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86
4.18 Exponential Distribution ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 87
4.19 Poisson Distribution��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 88
4.20 Additional Distributions and Reading����������������������������������������������������������������� 89
4.21 Transformations��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 89
4.22 Correlation����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 90
5 Inferential Statistics ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 95
5.1 Independent and Dependent Variables����������������������������������������������������������������� 96
5.2 Chi-Squared Analysis������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 97
5.3 Chi-Squared Example: Titanic Gender Example������������������������������������������������� 98
5.4 Chi-Square Example: Titanic Age Example ������������������������������������������������������� 100
5.5 Chi-Square Example: Titanic Passenger Class Example������������������������������������� 102
5.6 T-test Example: Fare and Gender������������������������������������������������������������������������� 106
5.7 ANOVA Example: Price Differences Between Passenger Classes��������������������� 107
5.8 Two-Way ANOVA Example: How Gender and Passenger Class
Together Affect Fare Price����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 110
6 Metrics������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 113
6.1 Distance Metrics: Movies Example��������������������������������������������������������������������� 114
6.1.1 KNN with Euclidean Distance����������������������������������������������������������������� 116
6.1.2 KNN with Jaccard Similarity Index��������������������������������������������������������� 119
6.1.3 KNN with Weighted Jaccard Similarity Index����������������������������������������� 120
6.1.4 KNN with Levenshtein Distance������������������������������������������������������������� 122
6.1.5 KNN with Cosine Similarity������������������������������������������������������������������� 123
6.1.6 Combining Metrics and Filters Together������������������������������������������������� 126
6.1.7 Mahalanobis Distance����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 127
6.1.8 Additional Metrics����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 130
6.2 Regression Metrics: Diet Example ��������������������������������������������������������������������� 131
6.2.1 Mean Squared Error (MSE)��������������������������������������������������������������������� 133
6.2.2 Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)��������������������������������������������������������� 134
Contents xi

6.2.3 Mean Absolute Error (MAE)������������������������������������������������������������������� 134


6.2.4 R2 or R Squared: Coefficient of Determination��������������������������������������� 135
6.2.5 Adjusted R-Squared ( R 2 )����������������������������������������������������������������������� 135
6.3 Prediction Metrics����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 136
6.3.1 Accuracy ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 136
6.3.2 Confusion Matrix������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 137
6.3.3 Classification Report������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 138
7 Recommendation Engines ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 143
7.1 Knowledge-Based Recommendation Engines����������������������������������������������������� 145
7.2 Content Based ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 147
7.3 Collaborative Filtering����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 148
7.4 Specialty Types ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 152
8 Machine Learning������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 155
8.1 Machine Learning Overview and Terminology��������������������������������������������������� 156
8.2 Decision Trees����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 161
8.3 Linear Regression ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 169
8.4 Logistic Regression��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 172
8.5 SVM (Support Vector Machine) ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 176
8.6 Neural Networks ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 178
8.7 Ensemble Algorithms������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 181
8.8 Cross Validation, Hyperparameter Tuning, and Pipelining��������������������������������� 182
8.9 Dimensionality Reduction and Feature Selection����������������������������������������������� 184
8.9.1 Feature Selection with RFE (Recursive Feature Elimination)����������������� 187
8.9.2 Dimensionality Reduction with PCA (Principal
Component Analysis)������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 188
8.9.3 Dimensionality Reduction and Feature Selection with Examples����������� 192
9  atural Language Processing (NLP)������������������������������������������������������������������������ 195
N
9.1 Bag of Words������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 196
9.2 TFIDF (Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency) ����������������������������������� 198
9.3 Naïve Bayes��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 199
9.4 Stemming, Lemmatization, and Parts of Speech������������������������������������������������� 202
9.5 WordNet��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 204
9.6 Natural Language Understanding, and Natural Language Generation��������������� 206
9.7 Collocations/N-Grams����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 207
9.8 Scoring Collocations������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 210
9.9 Sentiment and Emotion��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 214
10 Time Series������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 217
10.1 Seasonality��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 219
10.2 Time Invariant, Structural Breaks, and Piecewise Analysis������������������������������� 222
10.3 Stationarity, Autocorrelation, and Partial Autocorrelation��������������������������������� 223
10.4 Autoregression Models ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 228
10.5 Smoothing and Holt-Winters Method��������������������������������������������������������������� 231
10.6 Time Series with Neural Networks ������������������������������������������������������������������� 234
10.7 Real-Time Analysis������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 236
10.8 Stock Market����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 237
10.9 Facebook Prophet����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 238
11 Final Product��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 241
11.1 Presentation������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 242
11.2 Information Visualization Theory Basics����������������������������������������������������������� 243
11.3 Software Engineering����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 245
Chapter 1
Introduction to Data Science

∗∗∗

The purpose of this book is very simple: to help you make money either directly or indirectly through data science. Before
we provide our definition of data science, let us be clear about your potential motivations for reading this book.
If you wish to read a book about the theoretical foundations of data science (or big data/data analytics) then we recom-
mend you do not waste your time with this book. This book at its core is a practical book that will help you make money.
There are many other academic books on data science that are filled with mathematical symbols and expressions that explain
the principles and algorithms behind data science in greater detail than this book. We do in fact use mathematical symbols
and expressions from time to time; however, they are intended to help further clarify the topic under consideration, but you
may ignore them without compromising your understanding of the material.
This book will help you make money directly if you are an entrepreneur seeking to produce a product such as a recom-
mendation engine to move your business forward. In addition, this book will help you make money indirectly by launching
your career into the expanding field of data science where you will assist your organization (e.g., business, government, or
charity) to increase their revenue and you will consequently maintain a stable, growing income by retaining a prestigious
position with a rewarding salary.
Regardless of which path you choose, you will want to read this book if you are a motivated person willing to learn a range
of different skills to generate revenue, directly or indirectly, in data science. The path is not always obvious, but for the moti-
vated person, it is well worth it.
If you wish to make money directly then the possibility exists that millions to billions of dollars can be earned by learning
and effectively applying the concepts of data science. For example, consider Amazon (the company). The core part of their
business is twofold: (1) recommending the right products to people by leveraging a recommendation system so that people
buy what they want when they want and, (2) determining the best methods to reduce costs by shipping the products that
people purchase in a fast and efficient way through optimized logistics and warehousing governed by processes related to
supply chain management. These two main business strategies either originate from or are heavily influenced by data science
and analytics.
If you wish to make money indirectly then data science can help your organization in making well founded decisions and
predictions that cover all facets of business operations. The more valuable you are to your organization in designing and
distributing new products, reducing costs, and discovering new markets, for example, the more secure and extensive your
employment opportunities will be and the more money you will be able to earn.
Either way you choose, this book will help you succeed in a practical way by combining business (domain) knowledge
and common sense with the reliable foundations of statistics and computer science.
However, whereas most data science books focus primarily on statistics and computer science, we realize that without
fully considering and appreciating the business aspect of data science your end result is primarily of theoretical, academic
value. In other words, without serious examination of a practical business purpose, your efforts and results will belong to the

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 1


R. Ball, B. Rague, The Beginner’s Guide to Data Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07865-1_1
2 1 Introduction to Data Science

nominal category of “Oh! That is neat! I am sure your mother is very proud of what you did.” In contrast, our hope is that
your data science results will produce the following reaction, “Wait... Are you saying that if we do that (or build that) that we
can make that much money!! Woah... This is huge! Let me call the VP and see how fast we can get your results and recom-
mendations into action right now.”
Regardless of your level of interest in making money, it is important to have a revenue-generating mindset. No matter
what kind of project you undertake, you will need money to operate. Your project might be especially noble, altruistic, and
perfectly aligned with your inner values and priorities, and we fully support and congratulate those objectives. However, you
will need money to keep the lights on in the building, to buy food, to hire additional people for the project, and in general to
keep the motivational fire blazing. The more your results help finance either yourself or your organization the more likely
both your short-term and long-term goals will be realized.

1.1 Superpowers

If you could have a superpower, what would it be?


Would you like the power to fly like Superman or Peter Pan? What about the capacity to predict the future? Alternatively,
would you prefer the ability to walk through walls?
To many people data science is a superpower. For example, techniques and strategies related to data science allow you to
predict the future with some level of confidence. Data science grants you the ability to project who may die and who may
live and allows you greater insights about investing into the stock market.
Data science enables you to figure out who wrote a particular “anonymous” book based on word frequencies and helps
you determine if the author of a book is male or female and the country where they most likely lived during their developing
years as a child and teenager.
The principles and practices of data science allow you to detect fraud, scams, and other deceptive practices.
Data science enables you to peer into the far future and to see how many people will populate the earth during any given
future year.
The analysis associated with data science also allows you to accomplish more mundane tasks such as understanding why
students fail or succeed in their chosen major. It answers the questions of why someone was elected to office and why some-
one else was not.
Data science practice delves deeper and inspects the fundamental reasons why one house sells immediately at a given
location while the exact same house would never sell somewhere else.
What about our ongoing fascination with past events? Data Science allows us to investigate historical data such as the
passengers of the Titanic, a large ship that sank in the Atlantic Ocean in 1912 and allows us to determine with over 95%
accuracy if a particular passenger was destined to live or die. More importantly, data science techniques clarify why one pas-
senger died and why another passenger survived.

1.2 What Is Data Science?

If you invite 100 data scientists into a room and ask them to define “data science” then you will likely hear 100 different
definitions.
For the purposes of this book, we will define data science as an inter-disciplinary field of investigation that is concerned
with obtaining accurate and reliable insights about data. This insight is often obtained by using domain knowledge (i.e., the
business side), statistics, linear algebra, machine learning, visualization, programming, cluster computing, and creativity. In
more straightforward terms, data science is a field that involves primarily the domain (what the topic is about), statistics, and
computer science.
Another way to view data science is as an exciting and expanding field of endeavor where we do whatever is necessary to
fully comprehend and gain insight into data.
Insight, the ability to gain an accurate and intuitive understanding of data, is the key to success for modern businesses.
Insight into what customers want and why they want it defines the profitable and rewarding pathways into the foreseeable
future for many businesses.
1.2 What Is Data Science? 3

Actionable insight enables people and businesses to react to what is going on around them in the invisible, data-driven
world. The methodologies and techniques developed to discover “what we know we don’t know” are vital to the success of
a business.
Although we can sense the many physical, tangible properties of the world around us, such as smell, color, sound, and
temperature, there are many things that we cannot detect. For example, we cannot observe with our eyes what the probability
will be for snow next week nor see how traffic patterns are related to economies nor sense so many other millions of patterns
that are hidden inside complex data.
Due to the complex nature of life and the dynamic processes associated with daily experience, data science itself is com-
plex and involves many diverse topics that can never be fully covered in a single book. After you read this book, we encour-
age you to continue your lifelong journey of further exploring data science topics.
Data science is interdisciplinary, which by definition means that data science does not belong sequestered and siloed
within a single field. By its very nature data science does not exist in isolation or separate from the human experience.
Does anything really exist in isolation? No subject exists by itself, even the seemingly independent axioms and theorems
that define mathematics. Can a person study mathematics without enlisting their brain in the analysis of abstract concepts?
A brain is made up of cells whose study is part of biology. Also, the study of the mind and behavior is psychology. Also,
mathematicians write to describe their work. A mathematician cannot write without pencils, pens, chalk, or some other writ-
ing instrument. If mathematics could simply be thought of and not transcribed to paper, then it would have to be communi-
cated through sound which involves physics.
To use the field of geography as a resource, the first law of geography states, “All things are related. The closer they are
the more related they are to each other.” That is true with all fields and all disciplines in life.
The main thing to remember about data science is that both statistics and computer science are tools. For example,
programming languages such as R and Python are used for a specific purpose when applied to data science problems. A
data scientist usually does not take a compiler design course to create programming languages. Similarly, although
machine learning is utilized in and integral to data science, data scientists typically do not create new machine learning
algorithms.
This conceptual overlapping organization resembles how e-commerce (buying and selling products online) uses advanced
cryptography algorithms to ensure that sensitive information such as credit card numbers are not stolen during an online
transaction. Although advanced mathematics was used to create the algorithms it is not necessary to have an advanced degree
in mathematics to employ them.
Using a more widely familiar example, we all recognize that we do not need to know how to build a car to drive one.
Automotive engineers require years of experience in mathematics and engineering to design and manufacture a car. However,
to drive a car, you only need to complete a driver’s education class and obtain your driver's license. Although it can be argued
that knowing more about the detailed electrical and mechanical functions of your car can be a significant advantage when
traveling from place to place, it is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for driving the vehicle.
Figure 1.1 displays a Venn diagram of where data science resides in relation to computer science, statistics, and business,
a visual confirmation that data science is truly an interdisciplinary endeavor.

Computer
Science

Data
Science
Statistics Business

Fig. 1.1 The interdisciplinary nature of data science. In reality, nothing exists in isolation
4 1 Introduction to Data Science

1.3 Predicting the Future

Think about the temperature of air outside right now at your current location. What will be the recorded temperature at your
location tomorrow? Let us be even more specific and state that we only want to know what tomorrow’s low temperature
will be.
This particular fact-finding task is framed as a simple question but figuring out the answer can be very challenging.
Meteorology, the branch of science that is concerned with the atmosphere and forecasting of weather, is a complex field,
covering metrics and topics such as pressure, temperature, jet streams, moisture, atmospheric layers, mesoscale processes,
pollution, volcanic activity, and energetics.
Do you need a degree or advanced knowledge in meteorology to forecast tomorrow’s temperature at your location? The
answer is no.
If you allow a prediction within a specific range, then we could state that tomorrow’s low temperature will be today’s low
temperature plus or minus (+/−) 50° Fahrenheit (F). For example, if it is currently 25° outside then tomorrow will most likely
be between −25° and 75°. How would you assess the quality of this prediction? If you wait until tomorrow this guess will
most likely be 100% correct. Our prediction is so broad and inclusive that it does not even matter if we measure temperature
using the Fahrenheit or Celsius scale, as either outcome will likely fall within the predicted range.
However, can we narrow down this range of temperatures? Of course! We can predict that tomorrow’s low temperature
will most likely be today’s low temperature +/− 10° F. We might not achieve 100% accuracy, but we will still be in close
proximity to the actual temperature.
What level of accuracy can be achieved? Predicting tomorrow’s temperature is not that hard because even a modest level
of data analysis indicates that it is rare for tomorrow’s temperature to be extremely different from today’s temperature,
although this may occur on rare occasions.
Let us construct a more complex query: What will the temperature at your current location be 100 days from now? More
abstractly, what will the temperature be at your current location X days from now where X is any natural number? For
example, X could be 120 or 200 or even 1000.
This question is essentially about a forecast, i.e. predicting the future. If we could accurately estimate the temperature and
general weather (e.g., rain, snow, wind) of any location on earth for any day in the future to 100% accuracy then we will
easily be the source of information for most everyone on the planet for all future weather forecasts. Even if we were only
95% accurate then we could open a weather forecasting business and effectively shut down all other weather predicting busi-
nesses across the globe.
In other words, predicting the future, more commonly known as forecasting, ultimately reduces to the essentials of busi-
ness, providing value over a sustained period of time.
Data science helps businesses become and/or stay relevant, provides customers what they want in a timely manner, and
most importantly, seeks to understand why the customer wants what they want even if they do not entirely understand it
themselves.
Data science can be used in any area where data exists such as health care, finance, law, government, education, sports,
and other areas of work or play. If data are generated in that field, then data science can be effectively utilized. In fact, what
current field or topic does not utilize data in some form?

1.4 Understand the Process by Focusing on the End

One way to understand what data scientists do is by examining the end product. The following is a list of items and objectives
that most data science projects include:
• Provide actionable insights
• Tell stories with data
• Communicate complex results in a clear, understandable manner
• Create consumable predictive products
• Align business goals with the data science process
1.4 Understand the Process by Focusing on the End 5

1.4.1 Actionable Insights

One of the most important results of any data science project is to formulate actionable insights. For example, after analyzing
publicly available campaign donations, key factors of donors might be found that shed light on the industries typically associ-
ated with each political party.
For example, if a person is employed in finance then it has been generally demonstrated they are more likely to vote for a
Republican candidate in the United States. For most people, an insight that links careers and political parties may barely
register. However, for potential political candidates (e.g., people trying to get elected or reelected), such information could
establish a good return on investment regarding donor identification.
To illustrate, a political candidate canvassing a random cross-section of people for donations would likely receive a low
overall ROI for their time and effort. A return on investment (ROI) is a key performance metric for determining the effective-
ness in expending resources toward a specific business objective. For example, given the amount you invested in this book,
what did you actually gain from reading it and applying the principles described?
Regarding the ROI for a political candidate’s general survey of a random cross-section of people, did the hours of request-
ing financial backing justify the few donations received? Conversely, if the candidate knew exactly the industry and individu-
als to pursue for donations, like the finance sector mentioned previously, then a much higher ROI would be achieved by
targeting only those people that evince a high probability of donating.
Another example of effectively applying actionable insights could involve the type of information discussed in a presenta-
tion about climate change. Given the same data and results, one presentation might produce actionable results while another
does not.
For example, one presentation might emphasize only how humans have affected the global climate. The audience might
find that presentation interesting, but not constructively respond by altering any behavior after the presentation has con-
cluded. Another presentation based on the same information might instead offer actionable results and provide a list of
measures the audience can perform to counteract any negative influence on climate. Specifically, the presentation might
illustrate how switching from incandescent to LED light bulbs in a household is an impactful, actionable item for the audi-
ence to consider.

1.4.2 Tell Stories with Data

One important skillset that data scientists usually learn very early is that telling a story is instrumental in crystallizing the
purpose of data analysis and the insights to be gained by exploring the data. Questions that should be addressed when work-
ing with data sets include:
• What does the data mean?
• Where did the data come from?
• What current insights are available from the data?
• What future predictions are available from the data?
For example, given all the data from the standardized test scores of elementary students in a given state, people have found
that elementary students who take the standardized tests earlier in the day before lunch attain higher scores than peers in the
same school who are administered the test in the afternoon.
An actionable insight would be to recommend that the elementary schools only administer the standardized tests in the
morning. This approach would likely result in overall higher scores for the elementary school, which often translates into
additional funding for these schools.
The descriptive storyline of these results and recommendations is vitally important though. Numerous psychological stud-
ies have found that people gravitate and respond to stories. People love stories and will pay attention if you relate an abstract
idea as a story. However, simply listing facts will likely result in your audience becoming distracted and thinking about other
pressing concerns, like their next meal or family responsibilities.
Consequently, a data scientist should present the insights gained from studying the standardized tests by recounting the
personal stories and experiences of either actual or fictional students.
For example, which do you find more interesting: (1) listening to someone lecture at length about concepts related to
circadian rhythm (the reason why students perform better on tests in the morning) or (2) listening to a person who introduces
Sally and Sarah, identical twins from a loving home with well-adjusted parents in a middle-class neighborhood.
Another Random Scribd Document
with Unrelated Content
the Attila and the Liberation of Peter were suggested by incidents in
the life of Leo, and consequently that they could not have been
thought of before the accession of that pope. Of all these works the
Attila is justly considered to be the most perfect example of fresco
painting, and to exhibit the greatest command over the material;
though produced after the death of Julius, it may be regarded as the
noblest result of that impulse which the pontiff’s energy had
communicated to Raphael. The character of Leo X., as a protector of
art, has been perhaps sometimes too favourably represented. More
educated than his predecessor, he loved the refinement which the
arts and letters imparted to his court; but he had no deep interest,
like Julius, in inciting such men as Raphael and Michael Angelo to do
their utmost under his auspices. Whether from the indifference of
Leo, or from his neglecting, as Vasari hints, to discharge his
pecuniary debts to Raphael, we soon find the painter employed in
various other works, and the remaining frescoes of the Vatican bear
evidence of the frequent employment of other hands. Many works of
minor importance in the same palace were entirely executed by his
assistants.
The celebrated Cartoons were designs for tapestries, of which more
than twenty of various sizes are preserved in the Vatican. The
Cartoons, it may be inferred, were equally numerous, but seven
only, now fit Hampton Court, remain entire. A portion of another was
bequeathed by the late Prince Hoare to the Foundling Hospital,
where it is now to be seen. These works owed their existence to the
Pope’s love of magnificence rather than to a true taste for art; but
although destined for a merely ornamental purpose, some of the
designs are among the very finest of Raphael’s inventions, and a few
may have been, at least in part, executed by his hand. The Ananias,
the Charge to Peter, the Paul and Barnabas at Lystra, and the Paul
preaching at Athens, are generally considered to have the greatest
pretensions to this additional interest. The fine portrait of Leo with
the Cardinals de’ Medici and de’ Rossi completes the list of larger
works undertaken for the Pope, but the many designs by Raphael
from classical or mythological subjects may be supposed to have
been also made at the suggestion of the pontiff. In obedience to his
wishes, Raphael undertook the inspection of the ancient Roman
monuments, and superintended the improvements of St. Peter’s.
Among the numerous and extensive works done for other employers
may be mentioned the Sybils in the Chiesa della Pace, the frescoes
from Apuleius’s story of Cupid and Psyche in the palace of Agostino
Chigi, called the Farnesina, where the so-called Galatea was the
beginning of another Cyclus from the same fable, the Madonna del
Pesce, the Madonna di S. Sisto, and the Spasimo di Sicilia. Many a
palace in the neighbourhood of Rome still exhibits remains of
frescoes for which Raphael at least furnished the designs; and his
own Casino, near the more modern Villa Borghese, may retain traces
of his hand, but it is now fast falling to decay. A long list of portraits
might be added to the above works, together with many interesting
designs in architecture, and even some productions in sculpture. In
reviewing the amazing number of works attributed to Raphael, it
must not however be forgotten that many are his only in the
invention, and some pictures that bear his name may have been
even designed as well as finished by his imitators. The Flemish
copies of Raphael are frequent, and are to be detected, among other
indications, by their extreme smoothness; the contemporary
imitations, especially those of the earlier style of the master, by
Domenico Alfani and Vincenzo di S. Geminiano, are much less easily
distinguished. The question respecting the Urbino earthenware may
be considered to have been set at rest by Passeri (Storia delle pitture
in Maiolica di Pesaro e di altri luoghi della Provincia Metaurense).
From this inquiry, it appears, first, that the art of painting this ware
had not arrived at perfection till twenty years after Raphael’s death:
and secondly, that about that time Guid’ Ubaldo II. (della Rovere)
collected engravings after Raphael, and even original designs by
him, and had them copied in the Urbino manufactory. Battista
Franco at one time superintended the execution, and one of the
artists was called Raffaello del Colle; his name may perhaps
occasionally be inscribed on the Urbino ware, but the initials O. F.
(Orazio Fontana) are the most frequent.
The Transfiguration was the last oil picture of importance on which
Raphael was employed; it was unfinished at his death, and was
afterwards completed, together with various other works, by his
scholars. The last and worst misstatement of Vasari cannot be
passed over, for unfortunately, none of the biographer’s mistakes
have been oftener repeated than that which ascribes the death of
this great man to the indulgence of his passion for the Fornarina.
Cardinal Antonelli was in possession of an original document, first
published by Cancellieri, which assigns a different, and a much more
probable, cause for Raphael’s death; it thus concludes,—“Life in him
(Raphael) seemed to inform a most fragile bodily structure, for he
was all mind; and moreover, his physical forces were much impaired
by the extraordinary exertions he had gone through, and which it is
wonderful to think he could have made in so short a life. Being then
in a very delicate state of health, he received orders one day while
at the Farnesina to repair to the court; not to lose time, he ran all
the way to the Vatican, and arrived there heated and breathless;
there the sudden chill of the vast rooms, where he was obliged to
stand long consulting on the alterations of St. Peter’s, checked the
perspiration, and he was presently seized with an indisposition. On
his return home, he was attacked with a fever, which ended in his
death.” Raphael was born and died on Good Friday. Some of his
biographers have hence, through an oversight, asserted that he lived
exactly thirty-seven years. He was born March 28, 1483, and died
April 6, 1520. He was buried in the Pantheon, now the church of Sta.
Maria ad Martyres, in a niche or chapel which he had himself
endowed. His remains have been lately found there.
Quatremère de Quincy’s ‘Histoire de la Vie et des Ouvrages de
Rafael, etc. Paris, 1824,’ has been improved and superseded by the
notes to the Italian translation of Longhena, Milan, 1829. Pungileoni,
the author of the ‘Elogio Storico di Giovanni Santi, Urbino, 1822,’ has
been long employed in preparing a life of Raphael. The observations
of Rumohr, in the third volume of his ‘Italienische Forschungen,
Berlin, 1831,’ are original and valuable. A few interesting facts will be
found in Fea’s ‘Notizie intorno Raffaele Sanzio, Rome 1822.’ The
author, however, fails to prove the regularity of Leo’s payments to
Raphael, since the latest document concerning the frescoes in the
Stanze has the date 1514.
The engraving is from a miniature after the portrait by Raphael
himself, in his first manner, cut from the stucco of a wall at Urbino,
which forms the chief attraction of the Camera di’ ritratti at Florence.
The head engraved by Morghen, and so generally known, represents
the features of Bindo Altoviti, which do not even resemble in a single
point those of Raphael. The notion arose solely from a passage in
Vasari’s Lives:—‘E a Bindo Altoviti fece il ritratto suo;’ for Bindo
Altoviti he did his portrait (not his own): these words were distorted
by the Editor Bottari in a marginal note; but the error has been
decisively exposed by Missirini and others, whose account is every
where received in Italy. Nor does it appear that the Tuscans in
general fell into the mistake, for the portrait now given, and not, as
Bottari asserts, the Altoviti portrait, is engraved in the Museum
Florentinum.

[Death of Ananias.]
KNOX.

John Knox was born in East Lothian, in 1505, probably at the village
of Gifford, but, according to some accounts, at the small town of
Haddington, in the grammar-school of which he received the
rudiments of his education. His parents were of humble rank, but
sufficiently removed from want to support their son at the University
of St. Andrew’s, which Knox entered about the year 1524. He passed
with credit through his academical course, and took orders at the
age of twenty-five, if not sooner. In his theological reading, he was
led by curiosity to examine the works of ancient authors quoted by
the scholastic divines. These gave him new views of religion, and led
him on to the perusal of the scriptures themselves. The change in
his opinions appears to have commenced about 1535. It led him to
recommend to others, as well as to practise, a more rational course
of study than that prescribed by the ancient usage of the University.
This innovation brought him under suspicion of being attached to the
principles of the Reformation, which was making secret progress in
Scotland: and, having ventured to censure the corruptions which
prevailed in the Church, he found it expedient to quit St. Andrew’s in
1542, and return to the south of Scotland, where he openly avowed
his adherence to the Reformed doctrines.
Engraved by B. Holl.

JOHN KNOX.

From a Picture in the


possession of Lord
Somerville.

Under the Superintendance


of the Society for the
Diffusion of Useful
Knowledge.

London, Published by
Charles Knight, Ludgate
Street.

Having cut himself off from the emoluments of the Established


Church, Knox engaged as tutor in the family of Douglas of
Langniddrie, a gentleman of East Lothian. As a man of known ability,
and as a priest, he was especially obnoxious to the hierarchy; and it
is said that Archbishop Beatoun sought his life by private
assassination, as well as openly under colour of the law. At Easter,
1547, Knox, with many other Protestants, took refuge in the castle of
St. Andrew’s, which was seized and held, after the archbishop’s
murder, by the band of conspirators who had done the deed. He
here continued his usual course of instruction to his pupils,
combined with public reading and explanation of the scriptures to
those who sought his assistance. His talents pointed him out as a
fitting person for the ministry; but he was very reluctant to devote
himself to that important charge, and was only induced to do so,
after a severe internal struggle, by a solemn call from the minister
and the assembled congregation. He distinguished himself during his
short abode at St. Andrew’s by zeal, boldness, and success in
preaching. But in the following July the castle surrendered; and, by a
scandalous violation of the articles of capitulation, the garrison were
made prisoners of war, and subjected to great and unusual ill-
treatment. Knox, with many others, was placed in a French galley,
and compelled to labour like a slave at the oar. His health was
greatly injured by the hardships which he underwent in that worst of
prisons; but his spirit rose triumphant over suffering. During this
period he committed to writing an abstract of the doctrines which he
had preached, which he found means to convey to his friends in
Scotland, with an earnest exhortation to persevere in the faith
through persecution and trial. He obtained liberty in February, 1549,
but by what means is not precisely known.
At that time, under the direction of Cranmer, and with the zealous
concurrence of the young King Edward VI., the Reformation in
England was advancing with rapid pace. Knox repaired thither, as to
the safest harbour; and in the dearth of able and earnest preachers
which then existed, he found at once a welcome and active
employment. The north was appointed to be the scene of his
usefulness, and he continued to preach there, living chiefly at
Berwick and Newcastle, till the end of 1552. He was then summoned
to London, to appear before the Privy Council on a frivolous charge,
of which he was honourably acquitted. The King was anxious to
secure his services to the English Church, and caused the living of All
Hallows, in London, and even a bishopric, to be offered him. But
Knox had conscientious scruples to some points of the English
establishment. He continued, however, to preach, itinerating through
the country, until, after the accession of Mary, the exercise of the
Protestant religion was forbidden by act of parliament, December 20,
1553. Shortly afterwards he yielded to the importunity of his friends,
and consulted his own safety by retiring to France. Previous to his
departure, he solemnised his marriage with Miss Bowes, a Yorkshire
lady of good family, to whom he had been some time engaged.
Knox took up his abode in the first instance at Dieppe, but he soon
went to Geneva, and there made acquaintance with Calvin, whom he
loved and venerated, and followed more closely than any others of
the fathers of the Reformation in his views both of doctrine and
ecclesiastical discipline. Towards the close of 1554 he was invited by
a congregation of English exiles resident at Frankfort to become one
of their pastors. Internal discords, chiefly concerning the ritual and
matters of ceremonial observance, in which, notwithstanding the
severe and uncomplying temper usually ascribed to him, no blame
seems justly due to Knox, soon forced him to quit this charge, and
he returned to Geneva; where he spent more than a year in a
learned leisure, peculiarly grateful to him after the troubled life
which he had led so long. But in August, 1555, moved by the
favourable aspect of the time, and by the entreaties of his family,
from whom he had now been separated near two years, he returned
to Scotland, and was surprised and rejoiced at the extraordinary
avidity with which his preaching was attended. He visited various
districts, both north and south, and won over two noblemen, who
became eminent supporters of the Reformation, the heir-apparent of
the earldom of Argyle, and Lord James Stuart, afterwards Earl of
Murray. But in the middle of these successful labours he received a
call from an English congregation at Geneva to become their pastor;
and he appears to have felt it a duty to comply with their request. It
would seem more consonant to his character to have remained in
Scotland, to watch over the seed which he had sown, and that his
own country had the most pressing claim upon his services. But the
whole tenor of his life warrants the belief that he was actuated by no
unworthy or selfish motives; and in the absence of definite
information, some insight into the nature of his feelings may
probably be gained from a letter addressed to some friends in
Edinburgh, in March, 1557. “Assure of that, that whenever a greater
number among you shall call upon me than now hath bound me to
serve them, by His grace it shall not be the fear of punishment,
neither yet of the death temporal, that shall impede my coming to
you.” He quitted Scotland in July, 1556.
During this absence Knox maintained a frequent correspondence
with his brethren in Scotland, and both by exhortation and by his
advice upon difficult questions submitted to his judgment, was still
of material service in keeping alive their spirit. Two of his works
composed during this period require mention; his share in the
English translation of the Scriptures, commonly called the ‘Geneva
Bible,’ and the ‘Blast of the Trumpet against the monstrous Regimen
of Women,’ a treatise expressly directed against the government of
Mary of England, but containing a bold and unqualified enunciation
of the principle, that to admit a woman to sovereignty is contrary to
nature, justice, and the revealed will of God. In January, 1559, at
the invitation of the leading persons of the Protestant congregation,
he again returned to Scotland. Matters at this time were drawing to
a crisis. The Queen Regent, after temporising while the support of a
large and powerful party was essential to her, had thrown off
disguise, and openly avowed her determination to use force for the
suppression of heresy: while the leading Protestants avowed as
plainly their resolution of protecting their preachers; and becoming
more and more sensible of their own increasing strength, resolved to
abolish the Roman, and set up the Reformed method of worship in
those places to which their influence or feudal power extended. St.
Andrew’s was fixed on for the commencement of the experiment;
and under the protection of the Earl of Argyle and Lord James
Stuart, Prior of St. Andrew’s, Knox, who on his landing had been
proclaimed a rebel and outlaw, undertook to preach publicly in the
cathedral of that city. The archbishop sent word that he should be
fired upon if he ventured to appear in the pulpit, and as that prelate
was supported by a stronger force than the retinue of the Protestant
noblemen, they thought it best that he should abstain at this time
from thus exposing his life. Knox remained firm to his purpose. After
reminding them that he had first preached the Gospel in that church,
of the sufferings of his captivity, and of the confident hope which he
had expressed to many that he should again perform his high
mission in that same church, he besought them not to stand in the
way when Providence had brought him to the spot. The archbishop’s
proved to be an empty threat. Knox preached for four successive
days without interruption, and with such effect, that the magistrates
and the inhabitants agreed to set up the reformed worship in their
town; the monasteries were destroyed, and the churches stripped of
images and pictures. Both parties now rose in arms. During the
contest which ensued, Knox was a chief agent in conducting the
correspondence between Elizabeth and the Lords of the
Congregation. The task suited neither his profession nor his
character, and he rejoiced when he was relieved from it. In July,
1560, a treaty was concluded with the King and Queen of France, by
which the administration of the Queen Regent was terminated; and
in August a parliament was convoked, which abolished the papal
jurisdiction, prohibited the celebration of mass, and rescinded the
laws enacted against Protestant worship.
From the persecuted and endangered teacher of a proscribed
religion, Knox had now become, not indeed the head, but a leader
and venerated father of an Established Church. He was at once
appointed the Protestant minister of Edinburgh, and his influence
ceased not to be felt from this time forward in all things connected
with the Church, and in many particulars of civil policy. Still his
anxieties were far from an end. Many things threatened and
impeded the infant Church. Far from acquiescing in the recent acts
of the parliament, the young King and Queen of France were bent
on putting down the rebellion, as they termed it, in Scotland by force
of arms. The death of Francis put an end to that danger; but
another, no less serious, was opened by the arrival of Mary in
August, 1561, to assume her paternal sovereignty, with a fixed
determination of reviving the supremacy of the religion in which she
had been brought up, and to which she was devotedly attached.
There were also two subjects upon which Knox felt peculiarly
anxious, and in which he was thwarted by the lukewarmness, as he
considered it, of the legislature,—the establishment of a strict and
efficacious system of church discipline, and the entire devotion of
the wealth of the Catholic priesthood to the promotion of education,
and the maintenance of the true religion. In both these points he
was thwarted by the indifference or interestedness of the nobility,
who had possessed themselves, to a large amount, of the lands and
tithes formerly enjoyed by monasteries.
It soon became evident that the Queen disliked and feared Knox.
She regarded his ‘Blast against the Regimen of Women’ as an attack
upon her own right to the throne; and this is not surprising, though
Knox always declared that book to be levelled solely against the late
Queen of England, and professed his perfect readiness to submit to
Mary’s authority in all things lawful, and to wave all discussion or
allusion to the obnoxious tenet. His freedom of speech in the pulpit
was another constant source of offence; and it is not to be denied
that, although the feelings of that age warranted a greater latitude
than would now be tolerated in a teacher of religion, his energetic
and severe temper led him to use violent and indiscreet language in
speaking of public men and public things. For Mary herself he prayed
in terms which, however fitting for a minister to employ towards one
of his flock whom he regarded to be in deadly and pernicious error, a
queen could hardly be expected to endure from a subject without
anger. Accordingly, he was several times summoned to her presence,
to apologise or answer for his conduct. The narrations of these
interviews are very interesting: they show the ascendancy which he
had gained over the haughty spirit of the Queen, and at the same
time exonerate him from the charge urged by her apologists of
having treated her with personal disrespect, and even brutality. He
expressed uncourtly opinions in plain and severe language; farther
than this he neither violated the courtesy due from man to woman,
nor the respect due from a subject to a superior. In addition to the
causes of offence already specified, he had remonstrated, from her
first landing, against the toleration of the mass in her own chapel.
And at a later time, he spoke so freely concerning the probable
consequence to the Reformed Church from her marrying a Papist,
that in reprimanding and remonstrating with him she burst into a
passion of tears. He remained unmoved, protesting that he saw her
Majesty’s tears with reluctance, but was constrained, since he had
given her no just ground of offence, rather to sustain her tears than
to hurt his conscience, and betray the commonwealth through his
silence. This interview is one of the things upon which Mr. Hume has
sought to raise a prejudice against the reformer in his partial
account of this period.
Many of the nobility who had aided in the establishment of the
Reformation, gained over either by the fascination of Mary’s beauty
and manners, or by the still more cogent appeal of personal interest,
were far from seconding Knox’s efforts, or partaking in his
apprehensions. The Earl of Murray was so far won over to adopt a
temporising and conciliatory policy, that a quarrel ensued in 1563
between him and Knox, which lasted for two years, until quenched,
as Knox expresses it, by the water of affliction. Maitland of
Lethington, once an active Reformer, a man of powerful and versatile
talents, who was now made Secretary of State, openly espoused the
Queen’s wishes. In the summer of 1563, Knox was involved in a
charge of high treason, for having addressed a circular to the chief
Protestant gentlemen, requesting them to attend the trial of two
persons accused of having created a riot at the Queen’s chapel. It
appears that he held an especial commission from the General
Assembly to summon such meetings, when occasion seemed to him
to require them. Upon this charge of treasonably convoking the
lieges, he was brought before the privy council. Murray and Maitland
were earnest to persuade him into submission and acknowledgment
of error. Knox, however, with his usual firmness and uprightness,
refused positively to confess a fault when he was conscious of none,
and defended himself with so much power, that by the voice of a
majority of the council he was declared free of all blame.
In March, 1564, more than three years after the death of his first
wife, Knox was again married to a daughter of Lord Ochiltree, a
zealous Protestant. Throughout that year and the following, he
continued to preach as usual. Meanwhile, the Protestant
establishment, though confirmed by the parliament, remained still
unrecognised by the Queen, whose hasty marriage to Lord Henry
Darnley in July, 1565, increased the alarm with which her conduct
had already inspired the Reformers. But early in the following year,
when Mary, in conjunction with her uncles of the House of Lorrain,
had planned the formal re-establishment of Catholicism, her
dissensions with her husband led to the assassination of Rizzio, and
in rapid succession to the murder of Darnley, her marriage with
Bothwell, and the train of events which ended in her formal
deposition and the coronation of her infant son James VI. It is
denied that Knox was privy to the assassination of Rizzio, and the
tenor of his actions warrants us in disbelieving that he would have
been an accomplice in any deed of blood; but after that event, he
spoke of it in terms of satisfaction, indiscreet, liable to perversion,
and unbecoming a Christian preacher. The Queen’s resentment for
this and other reasons became so warm against him, that it was
judged proper for him to retire from Edinburgh. He preached at the
coronation of James VI. After Mary was made prisoner and confined
at Lochleven, he, in common with most of the ministers and the
great body of the people, insisted strongly on the duty of bringing
her to trial for the crimes of murder and adultery, and of inflicting
capital punishment if her guilt were proved.
During the short regency of Murray, Knox had the satisfaction, not
only of being freed from the personal disquietudes which had been
his portion almost through life, but of seeing the interests of the
Church, if not maintained to the full extent which he could wish, at
least treated with respect, and advocated as far as the crooked
course of state-policy would permit. The murder of that
distinguished nobleman, January 23, 1570, affected Knox doubly, as
the premature decease of a loved and esteemed friend, and as a
public calamity to church and state.
In the following October he suffered a slight fit of apoplexy, from
which however he soon recovered so far as to resume his Sunday
preachings. But the troubled times which followed on the death of
the Regent Murray denied to him in Edinburgh that repose which his
infirmities demanded, and in May, 1571, he was reluctantly induced
to retire from his ministry and again to seek a refuge in St.
Andrew’s. Nor was his residence in that city one of peace or ease,
for he was troubled by a party favourable to the Queen’s interests,
especially by that Archibald Hamilton who afterwards apostatised to
the Roman Catholic Church and became his bitter calumniator; and
he was placed in opposition to the Regent Morton with respect to
the filling up of vacant bishoprics and the disposal of church
property, which, far from being applied to the maintenance of
religion and the diffusion of education, was still in great measure
monopolised by the nobility. In August, 1572, his health being
rapidly declining, he returned to Edinburgh at the earnest request of
his congregation, who longed to hear his voice in the pulpit once
more. He felt death to be nigh at hand, and was above all things
anxious to witness the appointment of a zealous and able successor
to the important station in the ministry which he filled. This was
done to his satisfaction. On Sunday, November 9, he preached and
presided at the installation of his successor, James Lawson, and he
never after quitted his own house. He sickened on the 11th, and
expired November 24, 1572, after a fortnight’s illness, in which he
displayed unmixed tranquillity, and assured trust in a happy futurity,
through the promises of the Gospel which he had preached. It is the
more necessary to state this, because his calumniators dared to
assert that his death was accompanied by horrid prodigies, and
visible marks of divine reprobation. The same tales have been
related of Luther and Calvin.
Knox’s moral character we may safely pronounce to have been
unblemished, notwithstanding the outrageous charges of dissolute
conversation which have been brought by some writers against him,
—calumnies equally levelled against Beza, Calvin, and other fathers
of the Reformation, and which bear their own refutation in their
extravagance. As a preacher, he was energetic and effective, and
uncommonly powerful in awakening the negligent or the hardened
conscience. As a Reformer and leader of the Church, he was fitted
for the stormy times and the turbulent and resolute people among
whom his lot was cast, by the very qualities which have been made
a reproach to him in a more polished age, and by a less zealous
generation. He was possessed of strong natural talents, and a
determined will which shunned neither danger nor labour. He was of
middle age when he began the study of Greek, and it was still later
in life when he acquired the Hebrew language,—tasks of no small
difficulty when we consider the harassed and laborious tenor of his
life. No considerations of temporising prudence could seduce him
into the compromise of an important principle; no thought of
personal danger could make him shrink when called to confront it.
His deep sense and resolute discharge of duty, coupled with a
natural fire and impetuosity of temper, sometimes led him into
severity. But that his disposition was deeply affectionate is proved by
his private correspondence; and that his severity proceeded from no
acerbity of temper may be inferred from his having employed his
powerful influence as a mediator for those who had borne arms
against his party, and from his having never used it to avenge an
injury. The best apology for his occasional harshness is that
contained in the words of his own dying address to the elders of his
church as quoted by Dr. M’Crie. “I know that many have frequently
complained, and do still loudly complain, of my too great severity;
but God knows that my mind was always void of hatred to the
persons of those against whom I thundered the severest judgments.
I cannot deny but that I felt the greatest abhorrence at the sins in
which they indulged; but still I kept this one thing in view, that, if
possible, I might gain them to the Lord. What influenced me to utter
whatever the Lord put into my mouth so boldly, and without respect
of persons, was a reverential fear of my God, who called and of His
grace appointed me to be a steward of divine mysteries, and a belief
that He will demand an account of the manner in which I have
discharged the trust committed to me, when I shall at last stand
before His tribunal.”
A list of Knox’s printed works, nineteen in number, is given by Dr.
M’Crie at the end of his notes. They consist chiefly of short religious
pieces, exhortations, and sermons. In addition to those more
important books which we have already noticed, his ‘History of the
Church of Scotland’ requires mention. The best edition is that printed
at Edinburgh in 1732, which contains a life of the author, the
‘Regimen of Women,’ and some other pieces. Dr. M’Crie’s admirable
‘Life of Knox’ will direct the reader to the original sources of the
history of this period.

[Knox’s House in the


Canongate, Edinburgh.]
Engraved by W. Holl.

ADAM SMITH.

From a Medallion executed


in the life time of A. Smith,
by Tafsiel.

Under the Superintendance


of the Society for the
Diffusion of Useful
Knowledge.

London, Published by
Charles Knight, Ludgate
Street.
A. SMITH.

Adam Smith was born June 5, 1723, at Kirkaldy, in the county of


Fife, where his father held the place of comptroller of the customs.
Being a posthumous and only child, he became the sole object of his
widowed mother’s tenderness and solicitude; and this was increased
by the delicacy of his constitution. Upon her devolved the sole
charge of his education; and the value of her care may be estimated
from the uninterrupted harmony and deep mutual affection which
united them, unchilled, to the end of life. He was remarkable for his
love of reading and the excellence of his memory, even at the early
age when she first placed him at the grammar-school of Kirkaldy,
where he won the affection of his companions by his amiable
disposition, though the weakness of his frame hindered him from
joining in their sports.
At the age of fourteen he was sent to the University of Glasgow,
from which, at the end of three years, he was removed to Baliol
College, Oxford, in order to qualify himself for taking orders in the
English Church. Mathematics and natural philosophy seem to have
been his favourite pursuits at Glasgow; but at Oxford he devoted all
his leisure hours to belles-lettres, and the moral and political
sciences. Among these political economy cannot be reckoned; for at
that period it was unknown even in name: still, in such studies, and
by the sedulous improvement of his understanding, he was laying
the foundations of his immortal work. He remained seven years at
Oxford, without conceiving, as may be inferred from some passages
in the ‘Wealth of Nations,’ any high respect for the system of
education then pursued in the University; and, having given up all
thoughts of taking orders, he returned to his mother’s house at
Kirkaldy, and devoted himself entirely to literature and science. In
1748 he removed to Edinburgh, where, under Lord Kames’s
patronage, he delivered a course of lectures on rhetoric and belles-
lettres. These were never published; and, with other papers, were
destroyed by Smith a short time before his death. Dr. Blair, in the
well-known course which he delivered ten years afterwards on the
same subject, acknowledges how greatly he was indebted to his
predecessor, and how largely he had borrowed from him.
In 1751 Mr. Smith was elected Professor of Logic in the University of
Glasgow, and in the following year he was transferred to the chair of
Moral Philosophy, which he filled during thirteen years. The following
account of his lectures is given by Professor Millar. “His course of
lectures on this subject was divided into four parts. The first
contained natural theology, in which he considered the proofs of the
being and attributes of God, and those principles of the human mind
upon which religion is founded. The second comprehended ethics,
strictly so called, and consisted chiefly of the doctrines which he
afterwards published in his ‘Theory of Moral Sentiments.’ In the third
part he treated more at length of that branch of morality which
relates to justice, and which, being susceptible of precise and
accurate rules, is for that reason capable of a full and particular
explanation.... In the last part of his lectures he examined those
political regulations which are founded, not on the principle of
justice, but on that of expediency, and which are calculated to
increase the riches, the power, and the prosperity of a state. Under
this view, he considered the political institutions relating to
commerce, to finances, to ecclesiastical and military establishments.
What he delivered on these subjects contained the substance of the
work he afterwards published under the title of ‘An Inquiry into the
Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.’”
“There was no situation in which the abilities of Dr. Smith appeared
to greater advantage than as a professor. In delivering his lectures,
he trusted almost entirely to extemporary elocution. His manner,
though not graceful, was plain and unaffected; and as he seemed to
be always interested in the subject, he never failed to interest his
hearers. Each discourse consisted of several distinct propositions,
which he successively endeavoured to prove and to illustrate. These
propositions, when announced in general terms, had, from their
extent, not unfrequently something of the air of a paradox. In his
attempts to explain them, he often appeared at first not to be
sufficiently possessed of the subject, and spoke with some
hesitation. As he advanced, however, the matter seemed to crowd
upon him, his manner became warm and animated, and his
expression easy and fluent. In points susceptible of controversy, you
could easily discern that he secretly conceived an opposition to his
opinions, and that he was led upon this account to support them
with greater energy and vehemence. By the fulness and variety of
his illustrations, the subject gradually swelled in his hands, and
acquired a dimension which, without a tedious repetition of the
same views, was calculated to seize the attention of his audience,
and to afford them pleasure as well as instruction in following the
same object through all the diversity of shades and aspects in which
it was presented, and afterwards in tracing it backwards to that
original proposition or general truth from which this beautiful train of
speculation had proceeded.”
“His reputation as a professor was accordingly raised very high, and
a multitude of students from a great distance resorted to the
University merely upon his account. Those branches of science which
he taught became fashionable at this place, and his opinions were
the chief topics of discussion in clubs and literary societies. Even the
small peculiarities in his pronunciation or manner of speaking
became frequently the objects of imitation.”
Smith published his ‘Theory of Moral Sentiments’ in 1759. The
fundamental principle of this work, we use the summary of Mr.
Macculloch, is that “sympathy forms the real foundation of morals;
that we do not immediately approve or disapprove of any given
action, when we have become acquainted with the intention of the
agent and the consequences of what he has done, but that we
previously enter, by means of that sympathetic affection which is
natural to us, into the feelings of the agent, and those to whom the
action relates; that having considered all the motives and passions
by which the agent was actuated, we pronounce, with respect to the
propriety or impropriety of the action, according as we sympathise
or not with him; while we pronounce, with respect to the merit or
demerit of the action, according as we sympathise with the gratitude
or resentment of those who were its objects; and that we
necessarily judge of our own conduct by comparing it with such
maxims and rules as we have deduced from observations previously
made on the conduct of others.” This theory, ingenious as it is, is
generally abandoned as untenable. Dr. Brown has argued, and the
objection seems fatal, that though sympathy may diffuse, it cannot
originate moral sentiments: at the same time he bears the strongest
testimony to the literary merits and moral tendency of the work.
In 1763 Smith received from the University of Glasgow the honorary
degree of Doctor of Laws, and he was offered, and accepted, the
situation of travelling tutor to the young Duke of Buccleugh. His long
residence in the populous and manufacturing metropolis of western
Scotland had enabled him to collect a rich hoard of materials for the
great work he had in view; and this new appointment changed the
method, rather than interrupted the course, of his studies. It
afforded him the means of examining the habits, institutions, and
condition of man under new forms, and in new countries, and he
observed with his natural acuteness and sagacity the influence of
locality, of climate, and of government. He no doubt derived
considerable advantage from the society of the distinguished men
with whom he associated at Paris; among these, Turgot, D’Alembert,
Helvetius, Marmontel, Morellet, Rochefoucauld, and Quesnay, were
his intimate friends. So highly did he appreciate the talents of the
last-named person as an economist, that he had intended, had
Quesnay lived, to have acknowledged the debt he owed him by
dedicating to him his own great work on the ‘Wealth of Nations.’
Having spent two years on the Continent, Dr. Smith returned to
England with his pupil, and soon after joined his mother at Kirkaldy,
where he resided for about ten years almost entirely in seclusion,
occupied in the prosecution of his great work. It was published in
1776; and few books have ever been given to the world tending
more directly to destroy the prejudices, develop the powers, and
promote the happiness of mankind. But the world at that time was
not clear-sighted enough to appreciate its merits. Dr. Smith however
had the gratification to see that, during fifteen years which elapsed
between its publication and his death, it had produced a
considerable effect upon public opinion, and that the eyes of men
were beginning to be opened upon an object of such importance to
human happiness. In this country at least Dr. Smith was the creator
of the science of political economy, for he had only a chaos of
materials from which to form it. Some defects may be discovered in
his arrangement, and some errors detected in the principles as laid
down by him; for it is hardly given to human intellect, that the
originator of a science should also carry it to perfection. But Smith
established the foundation upon which all future superstructures
must rest; and the labours of Ricardo, Malthus, and some now living,
eminent as they are, instead of superseding their predecessor do but
enhance his merit. With all the progress which liberty of every kind
has made since his time, no one has maintained the freedom of
industry in all its bearings more forcibly than himself. The theories of
rent, and of population, seem to be the only important branches of
the science, as it now stands, which had escaped his observation.
In 1778 Dr. Smith was appointed Commissioner of the Customs for
Scotland. The duties of his office obliged him to quit London, where
he had resided for two years subsequent to the publication of the
‘Wealth of Nations,’ and where his society had been courted by the
most distinguished characters; and he took up his abode in
Edinburgh, accompanied by his aged mother. In 1787 he was elected
Rector of the University of Glasgow; a compliment which gave him
great pleasure, as he was much attached to that body, and grateful
for the services it had rendered him in his youth, and the honours it
had conferred on him at a more advanced age.
His mother died in 1784, and his grief on this occasion is supposed
to have injured his health, and his constitution, which had never
been robust, began to give way. He suffered another severe
privation in the death of his cousin, Miss Douglas, who had managed
his household for many years, since the infirmities of his parent had
disqualified her for that employment. He survived Miss Douglas only
two years, and died in 1790 of a tedious and painful illness, which
he bore with patience and resignation.
Adam Smith’s private character is thus summed up by his friend Mr.
Dugald Stewart: “The more delicate and characteristical features of
his mind it is perhaps impossible to trace. That there were many
peculiarities both in his manners and in his intellectual habits was
manifest to the most superficial observer; but, although to those
who knew him, these peculiarities detracted nothing from the
respect which his abilities commanded; and although, to his intimate
friends, they added an inexpressible charm to his conversation, while
they displayed in the most interesting light the artless simplicity of
his heart, yet it would require a very skilful pencil to present them to
the public eye. He was certainly not fitted for the general commerce
of the world, or for the business of active life. The comprehensive
speculations with which he had been occupied from his youth, and
the variety of materials which his own inventions continually supplied
to his thoughts, rendered him habitually inattentive to familiar
objects and to common occurrences; and he frequently exhibited
instances of absence which had scarcely been surpassed by the
fancy of La Bruyère. Even in company he was apt to be engrossed
with his studies, and appeared, at times, by the motion of his lips, as
well as by his looks and gestures, to be in the fervour of
composition. I have often however been struck, at the distance of
years, with his accurate memory of the most trifling particulars; and
am inclined to believe, from this and some other circumstances, that
he possessed a power, not perhaps uncommon among absent men,
of recollecting, in consequence of subsequent efforts of reflection,
many occurrences which, at the time when they happened, did not
seem to have sensibly attracted his notice.
“To the defect now mentioned, it was probably owing, in part, that
he did not fall in easily with the common dialogue of conversation,
and that he was somewhat apt to convey his own ideas in the form
of a lecture. When he did so however, it never proceeded from a
wish to engross the discourse, or gratify his vanity. His own
inclination disposed him so strongly to enjoy in silence the gaiety of
those around him, that his friends were often led to concert little
schemes, in order to engage him in the discussions most likely to
interest him. Nor do I think I shall be accused of going too far, when
I say that he was scarcely ever known to start a new topic himself,
or to appear unprepared upon those topics that were introduced by
others. Indeed, his conversation was never more amusing than
when he gave a loose to his genius, upon the very few branches of
knowledge of which he only possessed the outlines.
“In his external form and appearance there was nothing uncommon.
When perfectly at ease, and when warmed with conversation, his
gestures were animated, and not ungraceful; and in the society of
those he loved, his features were often brightened with a smile of
inexpressible benignity.... He never sat for his picture, but the
medallion by Tassie conveys an exact idea of his profile, and of the
general expression of his countenance.” It is from this that our
portrait of him is engraved.
To those of Smith’s works of which we have already spoken, we
have to add two articles in a short-lived periodical publication, called
the ‘Edinburgh Review,’ for 1755, containing a review of Johnson’s
Dictionary, and a letter on the state of literature in the different
countries of Europe; an ‘Essay on the Formation of Languages;’ and
Essays, published after his death by his desire, with an account of
his life and writings prefixed, by Dugald Stewart, on the Principles
which lead and direct Philosophical Inquiries; on the nature of the
Imitation practised in the Imitative Arts; on the affinity between
certain English and Italian verses; and on the External Senses. To
that account of his life we may refer for an able analysis of his most
important writings, as well as to the memoir prefixed to Mr.
Macculloch’s edition of the ‘Wealth of Nations,’ from which this
sketch is principally taken.
Engraved by T. Woolnoth.

CALVIN.

From a Print engraved by


C. Dankertz.

Under the Superintendance


of the Society for the
Diffusion of Useful
Knowledge.

London, Published by
Charles Knight, Ludgate
Street.
CALVIN.

John Cauvin (afterwards called Calvin) was born of humble parents,


his father following the trade of a cooper, at Noyon in Picardy, July
10, 1509. He was intended in the first instance for the profession of
the church, and two benefices were already set apart for him, when,
at a very early age, from what motive is not exactly known, his
destination was suddenly changed, and he was sent, first to Orleans
and then to Bourges, to learn under distinguished teachers the
science of jurisprudence. He is said to have made great proficiency
in that study; but nevertheless, he found leisure to cultivate other
talents, and made himself acquainted with Greek, Hebrew, and
Syriac, during his residence at Bourges. His natural inclination seems
ever to have bent him towards those pursuits to which his earliest
attention was directed; and though he never attended the schools of
theology, nor had at any time any public master in that science, yet
his thoughts were never far away from it; and the time which he
could spare from his professional labours was employed on subjects
bearing more or less directly upon religion.
Thus it was, that he failed not to take part in the discussions, which
arose in France during his early years, respecting the principles of
the Reformation; and it may be, that his happy escape from
theological tuition made him more disposed to embrace them. It is
certain that his opposition to the Church of Rome became very soon
notorious, and made him, young as he was, an object of jealousy to
some of its powerful adherents. Even the moderate Erasmus viewed
his aspiring talents and determined character with some undefined
apprehension; and he is related (after a conversation with Calvin at
Strasbourg) to have remarked to Bucer, who had presented him,—“I
see in that young man the seeds of a dangerous pest, which will
some day throw great disorder into the Church.” The weak and
wavering character of Erasmus renders it difficult for us to
understand what sort of disorder it was that he anticipated, or what
exactly was the Church on which the apprehended mischief was to
fall. In 1535 Calvin published his great work, the ‘Christian Institute,’
which was intended as a sort of confession of faith of the French
reformers, in answer to the calumnies which confounded them with
the frantic Anabaptists of Germany.
In 1536, finding that his person was no longer secure in France,
Calvin determined to retire into Germany, and was compelled by
accident to pass through Geneva. He found this city in a state of
extreme confusion. The civil government was popular, and in those
days tumultuous: the ecclesiastical had been entirely dissolved by
the departure of the bishops and clergy on the triumph of the
Reformation, and only such laws existed as the individual influence
of the pastors was able to impose upon their several flocks. It was a
tempting field for spiritual ambition, and Calvin was readily
persuaded to enter into it. He decided to remain at Geneva, and
forthwith opened a theological school.
In the very year following his arrival, he formed the design of
introducing into his adopted country a regular system of
ecclesiastical polity. He assembled the people; and, not without
much opposition, prevailed on them at length to bind themselves by
oath; first, that they would not again, on any consideration, ever
submit to the dominion of Rome; secondly, that they would render
obedience to a certain code of ecclesiastical laws, which he and his
colleagues had drawn up for them. Some writers do not expressly
mention that this second proposition was accepted by the people—if
accepted, it was immediately violated: and as Calvin and his clerical
coadjutors (who were only two in number) refused with firmness to
administer the holy communion to such as rejected the condition,
the people, not yet prepared to endure that bondage, banished the
spiritual legislators from the city, in April, 1538.

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