Probability theory

Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability.
Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a
rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise
probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1,
termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the
sample space is called an event.

Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability
distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or
uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a
random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about
their behavior. Two major results in probability theory describing such behaviour are the law of large
numbers and the central limit theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that
involve quantitative analysis of data.[1] Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of
complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics or sequential
estimation. A great discovery of twentieth-century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical
phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.[2]

History of probability
The modern mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of chance by
Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth
century (for example the "problem of points").[3] Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject in
1657.[4] In the 19th century, what is considered the classical definition of probability was completed by
Pierre Laplace.[5]

Initially, probability theory mainly considered discrete events, and its methods were mainly
combinatorial. Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation of continuous variables
into the theory.

This culminated in modern probability theory, on foundations laid by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.
Kolmogorov combined the notion of sample space, introduced by Richard von Mises, and measure theory
and presented his axiom system for probability theory in 1933. This became the mostly undisputed
axiomatic basis for modern probability theory; but, alternatives exist, such as the adoption of finite rather
than countable additivity by Bruno de Finetti.[6]
Treatment
Most introductions to probability theory treat discrete probability distributions and continuous probability
distributions separately. The measure theory-based treatment of probability covers the discrete,
continuous, a mix of the two, and more.

Motivation
Consider an experiment that can produce a number of outcomes. The set of all outcomes is called the
sample space of the experiment. The power set of the sample space (or equivalently, the event space) is
formed by considering all different collections of possible results. For example, rolling an honest die
produces one of six possible results. One collection of possible results corresponds to getting an odd
number. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an element of the power set of the sample space of dice rolls. These
collections are called events. In this case, {1,3,5} is the event that the die falls on some odd number. If the
results that actually occur fall in a given event, that event is said to have occurred.

Probability is a way of assigning every "event" a value between zero and one, with the requirement that
the event made up of all possible results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) be assigned a value of
one. To qualify as a probability distribution, the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if
you look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events that contain no common results, e.g., the
events {1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that any of these events occurs is
given by the sum of the probabilities of the events.[7]

The probability that any one of the events {1,6}, {3}, or {2,4} will occur is 5/6. This is the same as
saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any
number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event
{1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.

When doing calculations using the outcomes of an experiment, it is necessary that all those elementary
events have a number assigned to them. This is done using a random variable. A random variable is a
function that assigns to each elementary event in the sample space a real number. This function is usually
denoted by a capital letter.[8] In the case of a die, the assignment of a number to certain elementary events
can be done using the identity function. This does not always work. For example, when flipping a coin
the two possible outcomes are "heads" and "tails". In this example, the random variable X could assign to
the outcome "heads" the number "0" ( ) and to the outcome "tails" the number "1" (
).

Discrete probability distributions

Discrete probability theory deals with events that occur in countable sample spaces.

Examples: Throwing dice, experiments with decks of cards, random walk, and tossing coins.

Classical definition: Initially the probability of an event to occur was defined as the number of cases
favorable for the event, over the number of total outcomes possible in an equiprobable sample space: see
Classical definition of probability.
For example, if the event is "occurrence of an even
number when a dice is rolled", the probability is given
by , since 3 faces out of the 6 have even
numbers and each face has the same probability of
appearing.

Modern definition: The modern definition starts with

a finite or countable set called the sample space,
which relates to the set of all possible outcomes in
classical sense, denoted by . It is then assumed that
for each element , an intrinsic "probability"
value is attached, which satisfies the following
properties: The Poisson distribution, a discrete probability
distribution
1.
2.

That is, the probability function f(x) lies between zero and one for every value of x in the sample space Ω,
and the sum of f(x) over all values x in the sample space Ω is equal to 1. An event is defined as any subset
of the sample space . The probability of the event is defined as

So, the probability of the entire sample space is 1, and the probability of the null event is 0.

The function mapping a point in the sample space to the "probability" value is called a probability
mass function abbreviated as pmf.

Continuous probability distributions

Continuous probability theory deals with events that
occur in a continuous sample space.

Classical definition: The classical definition breaks

down when confronted with the continuous case. See
Bertrand's paradox.

Modern definition: If the sample space of a random

variable X is the set of real numbers ( ) or a subset
thereof, then a function called the cumulative
distribution function (CDF) exists, defined by
The normal distribution, a continuous probability
. That is, F(x) returns the
distribution
probability that X will be less than or equal to x.

The CDF necessarily satisfies the following properties.

1. is a monotonically non-decreasing, right-continuous function;

 2.

3.

The random variable is said to have a continuous probability distribution if the corresponding CDF
is continuous. If is absolutely continuous, then its derivative exists almost everywhere and integrating
the derivative gives us the CDF back again. In this case, the random variable X is said to have a

probability density function (PDF) or simply density

For a set , the probability of the random variable X being in is

In case the PDF exists, this can be written as

Whereas the PDF exists only for continuous random variables, the CDF exists for all random variables
(including discrete random variables) that take values in

These concepts can be generalized for multidimensional cases on and other continuous sample
spaces.

Measure-theoretic probability theory

The utility of the measure-theoretic treatment of probability is that it unifies the discrete and the
continuous cases, and makes the difference a question of which measure is used. Furthermore, it covers
distributions that are neither discrete nor continuous nor mixtures of the two.

An example of such distributions could be a mix of discrete and continuous distributions—for example, a
random variable that is 0 with probability 1/2, and takes a random value from a normal distribution with
probability 1/2. It can still be studied to some extent by considering it to have a PDF of ,
where is the Dirac delta function.

Other distributions may not even be a mix, for example, the Cantor distribution has no positive
probability for any single point, neither does it have a density. The modern approach to probability theory
solves these problems using measure theory to define the probability space:

Given any set (also called sample space) and a σ-algebra on it, a measure defined on is called
a probability measure if

If is the Borel σ-algebra on the set of real numbers, then there is a unique probability measure on
for any CDF, and vice versa. The measure corresponding to a CDF is said to be induced by the CDF. This
measure coincides with the pmf for discrete variables and PDF for continuous variables, making the
measure-theoretic approach free of fallacies.

The probability of a set in the σ-algebra is defined as

where the integration is with respect to the measure induced by

Along with providing better understanding and unification of discrete and continuous probabilities,
measure-theoretic treatment also allows us to work on probabilities outside , as in the theory of
stochastic processes. For example, to study Brownian motion, probability is defined on a space of
functions.

When it is convenient to work with a dominating measure, the Radon-Nikodym theorem is used to define
a density as the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the probability distribution of interest with respect to this
dominating measure. Discrete densities are usually defined as this derivative with respect to a counting
measure over the set of all possible outcomes. Densities for absolutely continuous distributions are
usually defined as this derivative with respect to the Lebesgue measure. If a theorem can be proved in this
general setting, it holds for both discrete and continuous distributions as well as others; separate proofs
are not required for discrete and continuous distributions.

Classical probability distributions

Certain random variables occur very often in probability theory because they well describe many natural
or physical processes. Their distributions, therefore, have gained special importance in probability theory.
Some fundamental discrete distributions are the discrete uniform, Bernoulli, binomial, negative binomial,
Poisson and geometric distributions. Important continuous distributions include the continuous uniform,
normal, exponential, gamma and beta distributions.

Convergence of random variables

In probability theory, there are several notions of convergence for random variables. They are listed
below in the order of strength, i.e., any subsequent notion of convergence in the list implies convergence
according to all of the preceding notions.

Weak convergence
A sequence of random variables converges weakly to the random variable
if their respective CDF converges converges to the CDF of , wherever
is continuous. Weak convergence is also called convergence in distribution.

Most common shorthand notation:

Convergence in probability
The sequence of random variables is said to converge towards the random
variable in probability if for every ε > 0.

Most common shorthand notation:

Strong convergence
 The sequence of random variables is said to converge towards the random
variable strongly if . Strong convergence is also known as almost
sure convergence.

Most common shorthand notation:

As the names indicate, weak convergence is weaker than strong convergence. In fact, strong convergence
implies convergence in probability, and convergence in probability implies weak convergence. The
reverse statements are not always true.

Law of large numbers

Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then roughly half of the time it will
turn up heads, and the other half it will turn up tails. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the
more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of heads to the number of tails will approach unity.
Modern probability theory provides a formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the law of large
numbers. This law is remarkable because it is not assumed in the foundations of probability theory, but
instead emerges from these foundations as a theorem. Since it links theoretically derived probabilities to
their actual frequency of occurrence in the real world, the law of large numbers is considered as a pillar in
the history of statistical theory and has had widespread influence.[9]

The law of large numbers (LLN) states that the sample average

of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables converges towards their
common expectation (expected value) , provided that the expectation of is finite.

It is in the different forms of convergence of random variables that separates the weak and the strong law
of large numbers[10]

Weak law: for

Strong law: for

It follows from the LLN that if an event of probability p is observed repeatedly during independent
experiments, the ratio of the observed frequency of that event to the total number of repetitions converges
towards p.

For example, if are independent Bernoulli random variables taking values 1 with probability
p and 0 with probability 1-p, then for all i, so that converges to p almost surely.

Central limit theorem

The central limit theorem (CLT) explains the ubiquitous occurrence of the normal distribution in nature,
and this theorem, according to David Williams, "is one of the great results of mathematics."[11]
The theorem states that the average of many independent and identically distributed random variables
with finite variance tends towards a normal distribution irrespective of the distribution followed by the
original random variables. Formally, let be independent random variables with mean and
variance Then the sequence of random variables

converges in distribution to a standard normal random variable.

For some classes of random variables, the classic central limit theorem works rather fast, as illustrated in
the Berry–Esseen theorem. For example, the distributions with finite first, second, and third moment from
the exponential family; on the other hand, for some random variables of the heavy tail and fat tail variety,
it works very slowly or may not work at all: in such cases one may use the Generalized Central Limit
Theorem (GCLT).

See also

Mathematics portal

Mathematical Statistics – Branch of statistics

Expected value – Average value of a random variable
Variance – Statistical measure of how far values spread from their average
Fuzzy logic – System for reasoning about vagueness
Fuzzy measure theory – theory of generalized measures in which the additive property is
replaced by the weaker property of monotonicity
Glossary of probability and statistics
Likelihood function – Function related to statistics and probability theory
Notation in probability
Predictive modelling – Form of modelling that uses statistics to predict outcomes
Probabilistic logic – use of probability and logic to deal with uncertain situations
Probabilistic proofs of non-probabilistic theorems
Probability distribution – Mathematical function for the probability a given outcome occurs in
an experiment
Probability axioms – Foundations of probability theory
Probability interpretations – Philosophical interpretation of the axioms of probability
Probability space – Mathematical concept
Statistical independence – When the occurrence of one event does not affect the likelihood
of another
Statistical physics – Physics of many interacting particles
Subjective logic – Type of probabilistic logic
Pairwise independence§Probability of the union of pairwise independent events – Set of
random variables of which any two are independent
Lists
Catalog of articles in probability theory
List of probability topics
List of publications in statistics
List of statistical topics

References

Citations
1. Inferring From Data (http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/stat-data/Topics.htm)
2. "Quantum Logic and Probability Theory" (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qt-quantlog/). The
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 10 August 2021.
3. LIGHTNER, JAMES E. (1991). "A Brief Look at the History of Probability and Statistics" (http
s://www.jstor.org/stable/27967334). The Mathematics Teacher. 84 (8): 623–630.
doi:10.5951/MT.84.8.0623 (https://doi.org/10.5951%2FMT.84.8.0623). ISSN 0025-5769 (http
s://search.worldcat.org/issn/0025-5769). JSTOR 27967334 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/279
67334).
4. Grinstead, Charles Miller; James Laurie Snell. "Introduction". Introduction to Probability.
pp. vii.
5. Daston, Lorraine J. (1980). "Probabilistic Expectation and Rationality in Classical Probability
Theory" (https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0315-0860%2880%2990025-7). Historia Mathematica. 7
(3): 234–260. doi:10.1016/0315-0860(80)90025-7 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2F0315-0860%2
880%2990025-7).
6. " "The origins and legacy of Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe", by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir
Vovk" (http://www.probabilityandfinance.com/articles/04.pdf) (PDF). Retrieved 2012-02-12.
7. Ross, Sheldon (2010). A First Course in Probability (https://books.google.com/books?id=Bc
1FAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA26) (8th ed.). Pearson Prentice Hall. pp. 26–27. ISBN 978-0-13-
603313-4. Retrieved 2016-02-28.
8. Bain, Lee J.; Engelhardt, Max (1992). Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics
(2nd ed.). Belmont, California: Brooks/Cole. p. 53. ISBN 978-0-534-38020-5.
9. "Leithner & Co Pty Ltd - Value Investing, Risk and Risk Management - Part I" (https://web.ar
chive.org/web/20140126113323/http://www.leithner.com.au/circulars/circular17.htm).
Leithner.com.au. 2000-09-15. Archived from the original (http://www.leithner.com.au/circular
s/circular17.htm) on 2014-01-26. Retrieved 2012-02-12.
10. Dekking, Michel (2005). "Chapter 13: The law of large numbers". A modern introduction to
probability and statistics : understanding why and how (http://archive.org/details/modernintro
ducti00fmde). Library Genesis. London : Springer. pp. 180–194. ISBN 978-1-85233-896-1.
11. David Williams, "Probability with martingales", Cambridge 1991/2008

Sources
Pierre Simon de Laplace (1812). Analytical Theory of Probability.

The first major treatise blending calculus with probability theory, originally in French:
Théorie Analytique des Probabilités.
 A. Kolmogoroff (1933). Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. doi:10.1007/978-3-
642-49888-6 (https://doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-642-49888-6). ISBN 978-3-642-49888-6.

An English translation by Nathan Morrison appeared under the title Foundations of

the Theory of Probability (Chelsea, New York) in 1950, with a second edition in
1956.

Patrick Billingsley (1979). Probability and Measure. New York, Toronto, London: John Wiley
and Sons.
Olav Kallenberg; Foundations of Modern Probability, 2nd ed. Springer Series in Statistics.
(2002). 650 pp. ISBN 0-387-95313-2
Henk Tijms (2004). Understanding Probability. Cambridge Univ. Press.

A lively introduction to probability theory for the beginner.

Olav Kallenberg; Probabilistic Symmetries and Invariance Principles. Springer -Verlag, New
York (2005). 510 pp. ISBN 0-387-25115-4
Durrett, Rick (2019). Probability: Theory and Examples, 5th edition (https://www.cambridge.
org/de/academic/subjects/statistics-probability/probability-theory-and-stochastic-processes/p
robability-theory-and-examples-5th-edition?format=HB&isbn=9781108473682). UK:
Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781108473682.
Gut, Allan (2005). Probability: A Graduate Course. Springer-Verlag. ISBN 0-387-22833-0.

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