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STS 112 Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to draw inferences about population parameters based on sample statistics. It involves stating a null hypothesis (H0) and an alternative hypothesis (H1), determining a level of significance, calculating a test statistic, and reaching a conclusion. Errors in hypothesis testing include Type I error (rejecting H0 when true) and Type II error (accepting H0 when false), with different approaches for large and small sample sizes.

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12 views16 pages

STS 112 Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to draw inferences about population parameters based on sample statistics. It involves stating a null hypothesis (H0) and an alternative hypothesis (H1), determining a level of significance, calculating a test statistic, and reaching a conclusion. Errors in hypothesis testing include Type I error (rejecting H0 when true) and Type II error (accepting H0 when false), with different approaches for large and small sample sizes.

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HYPOTHESIS TESTING

❖ A STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS IS A CLAIM (BELIEF


OR ASSUMPTION) ABOUT AN UNKNOWN
POPULATION PARAMETER VALUE.
❖THE METHODOLOGY THAT ENABLES A
DECISION-MAKER TO DRAW INFERENCES ABOUT
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS BY ANALYZING
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF
SAMPLE STATISTIC AND THE CORRESPONDING
HYPOTHESIZED PARAMETER VALUE IS CALLED
HYPOTHESIS TESTING.
❖ THE STATISTIC USED TO TEST A HYPOTHESIS
IS CALLED A TEST STATISTIC.
❖ THE PROBABILITY LEVEL AT WHICH THE
DECISION-MAKER CONCLUDES THAT
OBSERVED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE
OF THE TEST STATISTIC AND HYPOTHESIZED
PARAMETER VALUE CANNOT BE DUE TO
CHANCE IS CALLED THE LEVEL OF
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE TEST.
A GENERAL PROCEDURES FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING

❖ STATE THE NULL HYPOTHESIS (H0) AND


ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS (H1)
H0: μ = μ0
States the Assumption (numerical) to be tested
e.g. The average number of maize seedlings to be
planted is at least 5
(H0: μ =5)
Begin with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is TRUE.
The Null Hypothesis may or may not be rejected.
The Alternative Hypothesis H1
Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
e.g. The average number of maize seedlings to
be planted is less than 5
H1: μ >5
• Challenges the Status Quo
• Never contains the ‘=‘ sign
• The Alternative Hypothesis may or may not be
accepted
❖ STATE THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE, α (ALPHA) FOR
THE TEST , 5% FOR SOCIAL SURVEY, 1% FOR
HEALTH/DRUGS…ACCORDING TO UNITED NATIONS
• Defines Unlikely Values of Sample Statistic if Null
Hypothesis Is True
• Called Rejection Region of Sampling Distribution
• It is usually selected by the researcher at the start
• It provides the critical value of the test
❖ ESTABLISH CRITICAL OR REJECTION REGION
If the value of the test statistic falls into the acceptance
region, the null hypothesis is accepted; otherwise,
it is rejected.
❖ CALCULATE THE SUITABLE TEST STATISTIC

❖ REACH A CONCLUSION
DEFINITION OF TERMS
❖ TWO-TAILED TEST
IF AN ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS IS SUCH THAT
IT LEADS
TO TWO-SIDED ALTERNATIVES TO THE NULL
HYPOTHESIS, THAT IS THE DIRECTION OF THE
TEST IS NOT STATED
IT IS SAID TO BE A TWO-TAILED TEST.
H0: μ = 5 VS H1: μ ≠ 5
ONE-TAILED TEST

IF THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS PROVIDES


ONE-SIDED ALTERNATIVE TO H0, E.G., THAT IS
THE DIRECTION OF THE TEST IS STATED
H0: μ = 5 VS. H1: μ < 5 (LEFT-TAILED TEST)
OR
H0: μ = 5 VS. H1: μ > 5 (RIGHT-TAILED TEST)
ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Type I error: Error of rejecting H0 when it is
true
Probability of Type I Error is α Called Level of
Significance

Type II error: Error of accepting H0 when it is


False Probability of Type II Error Is β (Beta)
.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR POPULATION
PARAMETERS WITH LARGE SAMPLES
• Hypothesis testing, which
involves large samples (n ≥30) is
based on the assumption that the
population from which the
sample is drawn has a normal
distribution.
One-Tail Z Test for Mean
(σ Known)
• Assumptions
– Population Is Normally Distributed
– If Not Normal, use large samples
– Null Hypothesis Has ≤ or ≥ Sign Only
• Z Test Statistic:
EXAMPLES
• A company claims that a can of watermelon
seeds contain more than 368 grams of seeds?
A random sample of 25 boxes showed the
mean 372.5 grams with standard deviation of
15. Test at the a=0.05 level.
• H0: μ ≤ 368
• H1: μ > 368
Finding Critical Values:
One Tail
Standardized Normal Probability Table
What Is Z Given α = 0.05? (Portion)

.50
-.05 σZ = 1 Z .04 .05 .06
.45 1.6 .5495 .5505 .5515
α = .05
1.7 .5591 .5599 .5608

0 1.645 Z 1.8 .5671 .5678 .5686


Critical Value = .5744
1.645
1.9 .5738 .5750
Example Solution: One Tail
Test Statistic:
H0: μ ≤ 368
H1: μ > 368
•α = 0.025
•n = 25
•Critical Value: 1.645
Reject
Decision: Since Tabulated value is greater
.05 than calculated value, we Do Not Reject
the null hypothesis at α = .05

Conclusion: No Evidence
0 1.645 Z True Mean Is More than
368
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR POPULATION
PARAMETERS WITH SMALL SAMPLES

•When a sample size is small


(less than 30), the central limit
theorem does not guarantee
us to assume that the
sampling distribution of a
sample statistic is normal.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR DIFFERENCE OF
TWO POPULATION MEANS VALUES WITH
INDEPENDENT SAMPLES
• For two normally distributed populations, say
population- 1 and population- 2, let the mean values of
a common variable be μ1 and μ2 respectively. The
corresponding population standard deviations are σ1
and σ2 respectively. Let two independent random
samples of small size n1 and n2 be drawn from the first
and second populations respectively. Let the sample
means so calculated be and .
• Hypotheses
• H0 : μ1 = μ2 against H1 : μ1 ≠ μ2

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