UNIT – 3 PROBABILITY REASONING

Probability theory is an advanced branch of

mathematics that deals with measuring the
likelihood of events occurring. It provides tools to
analyze situations involving uncertainty and helps in
determining how likely certain outcomes are. This
theory uses the concepts of random variables,
sample space, probability distributions, and more to
determine the outcome of any situation.

Here are some key roles of probability in AI:

1. Inference: It helps AI models infer hidden
patterns or relationships in data. For example,
Bayesian networks use probabilities to model
dependencies between variables.
2. Prediction: Machine learning models often
estimate the probability of an outcome, like the
likelihood of rain tomorrow or the probability
that an image contains a cat.
3. Decision Making: Probability is used in AI to
weigh risks and benefits, enabling systems to
make decisions under uncertainty, such as in
 autonomous vehicles or medical diagnosis
tools.
4. Learning: Probabilistic models, such as Naive
Bayes or Hidden Markov Models, learn patterns
in data by estimating probabilities.

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
Conditional probability is one type of probability in
which the possibility of an event depends upon the
existence of a previous event. Conditional
probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring
based on a previous outcome in similar
circumstances. In probability notation, this is
denoted as A given B, expressed as P(A|B), indicating
that the probability of event A is dependent on the
occurrence of event B.
Applications in AI:
1. Bayesian Networks: These probabilistic
graphical models use conditional probabilities
to represent dependencies between variables.
For example, in a medical diagnosis system, the
probability of a disease (event A) can be
determined based on symptoms (event B).
2. Natural Language Processing (NLP): Conditional
probability is used in language models to predict
the next word in a sentence. For example, given
the word "I am," the model calculates the
likelihood of "happy" or "hungry" appearing next.
3. Machine Learning: Algorithms like Naive Bayes
classify data by calculating the conditional
 probability of a class label given input features.
For instance, in spam email detection, the
probability of an email being spam is
determined based on the presence of specific
words.
4. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: In robotics
or autonomous vehicles, systems use
conditional probabilities to make decisions. For
example, the probability of a pedestrian
crossing the street (event A) can depend on
whether a traffic light is red or green (event B).

Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence

Bayes' theorem:
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes'
law, or Bayesian reasoning, which determines the
probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
In probability theory, it relates the conditional
probability and marginal probabilities of two random
events.Bayes' theorem was named after the British
mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian
inference is an application of Bayes' theorem,
which is fundamental to Bayesian statistics.
It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the
knowledge of P(A|B).Bayes' theorem allows updating
the probability prediction of an event by observing
new information of the real world.

The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or

Bayes' theorem. This equation is basic of most
modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.It
shows the simple relationship between joint and
conditional probabilities. Here,
➔ P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we
need to calculate, and it will be read as
Probability of hypothesis A when we have
occurred an evidence B.
➔ P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we
consider that hypothesis is true, then we
calculate the probability of evidence.

➔ P(A) is called the prior probability,

probability of hypothesis before considering the
evidence

➔ P(B) is called marginal probability, pure

probability of an evidence.

Example-1:
Question: what is the probability that a
patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff
neck?
Given Data:
A doctor is aware that disease meningitis
causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it
occurs 80% of the time. He is also aware of
some more facts, which are given as follows:
 • The Known probability that a patient has
meningitis disease is 1/30,000.
• The Known probability that a patient has a stiff
neck is 2%.
Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff
neck and b be the proposition that patient has
meningitis. , so we can calculate the following
as:
P(a|b) = 0.8
P(b) = 1/30000
P(a)= .02

Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750

patients has meningitis disease with a stiff neck.

Bayesian Belief Network in artificial intelligence:

Bayesian belief network is key computer technology
for dealing with probabilistic events and to solve a
problem which has uncertainty. We can define a
Bayesian network as:
"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical
model which represents a set of variables and
 their conditional dependencies using a directed
acyclic graph."
It is also called a Bayes network, belief network,
decision network, or Bayesian model.Bayesian
networks are probabilistic, because these networks
are built from a probability distribution, and also
use probability theory for prediction and anomaly
detection.Real world applications are probabilistic
in nature, and to represent the relationship between
multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can
also be used in various tasks including prediction,
anomaly detection, diagnostics, automated
insight, reasoning, time series prediction, and
decision making under uncertainty.
Bayesian Network can be used for building models
from data and experts opinions, and it consists of
two parts:
• Directed Acyclic Graph
• Table of conditional probabilities.
The generalized form of Bayesian network that
represents and solve decision problems under
uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence
diagram.
A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes
and Arcs (directed links), where:

• Each node corresponds to the random

variables, and a variable can be continuous or
discrete.
• Arc or directed arrows represent the causal
relationship or conditional probabilities
between random variables. These directed links
 or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly
influence the other node, and if there is no
directed link that means that nodes are
independent with each other
o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are
random variables represented by the
nodes of the network graph.
o If we are considering node B, which is
connected with node A by a directed
arrow, then node A is called the parent of
Node B.
o Node C is independent of node A.

CONSTRUCTION AND INFERENCE:

Construction and inference are two key concepts
in AI, particularly in the fields of knowledge
representation and reasoning.
1. Construction in AI
Construction refers to building or designing models,
frameworks, or structures that represent knowledge
and relationships in a given domain. This involves
defining how information is organized and how rules
or relationships are established. Examples include:
• Knowledge Bases: Creating a structured
repository of information, like facts, rules, or
relationships. For instance, in a medical
knowledge base, diseases, symptoms, and
treatments might be represented.
• Graphical Models: Building probabilistic
models like Bayesian networks or Markov
networks that represent dependencies between
variables.
• Ontologies: Defining a formal representation of
concepts and their relationships in a specific
domain (e.g., understanding the relationships
between animals in zoology).
The aim of construction is to provide a foundation
for machines to interpret and use knowledge
effectively.
2. Inference in AI
Inference in temporal models involves
estimating hidden states, model parameters,
and future observations based on observed
data. This article provides an overview of
 temporal models, the methods used for
inference, the associated challenges, and
practical applications.

TEMPORAL MODEL:
Temporal models play a crucial role in analyzing and
predicting time-dependent phenomena. They
capture dynamic relationships and dependencies
between variables over time, making them
indispensable in fields like finance, healthcare, and
climate science.
Temporal models are used to represent probabilistic
relationships between sequences of random
variables that change over time. These models
capture the dynamics and dependencies of data
points within a sequence, allowing for the prediction
and analysis of future states based on past and
present observations.
Key Components of Temporal Models:
• States: These represent the possible conditions
of the system at different times.
 • Observations: These are the data points that
are directly measured or perceived.
• Transitions: These are the probabilities from
one state to another over time.
• Emissions: These are the probabilities of
observing certain data given the system's state.

Types of Temporal Models:

1. Time Series Models
Time series models are fundamental for handling
temporal data, where observations are recorded at
specific time intervals. These models are extensively
used in economics, finance, and weather
forecasting. Key types of time series models include:
• Autoregressive (AR) Models: These models
predict future values based on past values. The
AR model assumes that the current value is a
linear combination of previous values.
• Moving Average (MA) Models: In MA models,
future values are predicted based on past
prediction errors. This model smoothens out
 fluctuations in the data by averaging them over a
certain period.
• ARIMA Models: The Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) model combines AR
and MA models and includes a differencing step
to make the data stationary, which is essential
for accurate modeling.
2. State-Space Models
State-space models provide a more flexible and
comprehensive framework for temporal data. These
models consist of two equations: the state equation,
which describes the evolution of the hidden state
over time, and the observation equation, which links
the hidden state to the observed data. Kalman filters
and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are prominent
examples.
• Kalman Filters: Used for linear and Gaussian
state-space models, Kalman filters are ideal for
real-time applications like tracking and
navigation.
• Hidden Markov Models (HMMs): HMMs are
widely used for sequence data where the
system is assumed to be a Markov process with
 unobserved states. Applications include speech
recognition and biological sequence analysis.
3. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs)
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are a class of
artificial neural networks designed to handle
sequential data. RNNs have connections that form
directed cycles, creating an internal state that
captures information from previous time steps. This
makes them suitable for tasks like language
modeling and machine translation.
• Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks:
LSTMs are a special type of RNN designed to
overcome the vanishing gradient problem. They
can capture long-term dependencies, making
them effective for tasks with long-range
temporal dependencies, such as music
generation and video analysis.
• Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs): GRUs are a
simplified version of LSTMs, retaining essential
features to capture long-term dependencies
while being computationally more efficient.
Applications of Temporal Models:
1. Natural Language Processing (NLP)
Temporal models are at the core of many NLP tasks.
For instance, language models predict the next word
in a sentence based on previous words, a
quintessential sequential prediction task. RNNs,
LSTMs, and GRUs are widely used for tasks like text
generation, machine translation, and speech
recognition.
2. Financial Forecasting
Accurately predicting stock prices, currency
exchange rates, or economic indicators relies
heavily on temporal models. ARIMA models and
state-space models are commonly employed to
analyze and forecast financial time series data.
3. Healthcare
Temporal models play a crucial role in healthcare for
predicting patient outcomes, monitoring vital signs,
and modeling disease progression. For example,
RNNs can analyze patient records over time to
predict future health events or complications.
4. Autonomous Systems
In autonomous driving, robots, and drones,
temporal models are essential for understanding
and predicting the dynamic environment. Kalman
filters are extensively used for tracking and
navigation, while RNNs can help in decision-making
processes.

HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL:

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a statistical model
that represents a system containing hidden states
where the system evolves over time. It is "hidden"
because the state of the system is not directly
visible to the observer; instead, the observer can
only see some output that depends on the state.
Markov models are characterized by the Markov
property, which states that the future state of a
process only depends on its current state, not on the
sequence of events that preceded it.
HMMs are widely used in temporal pattern
recognition such as speech, handwriting, gesture
recognition, part-of-speech tagging, musical score
following, and bioinformatics, particularly in the
prediction of protein structures.
Components of a Hidden Markov Model
A Hidden Markov Model consists of the following
components:
• States: These represent the different possible
conditions of the system which are not directly
visible.
• Observations: These are the visible outputs
that are probabilistically dependent on the
hidden states.
• Transition probabilities: These are
the probabilities of transitioning from one state
to another.
• Emission probabilities: Also known as
observation probabilities, these are the
probabilities of an observation being generated
from a state.
• Initial state probabilities: These indicate the
likelihood of the system starting in a particular
state.