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4.1. Uncertainty

1. The document describes steps for conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in geocellular modeling. It discusses sensitivity analysis parameters, plotting sensitivity results through tornado plots and sensitivity plots, and generating output reports. 2. Tornado plots rank sensitivity variables and sensitivity plots visualize sensitivity data without ranking, useful for screening optimization variables. 3. The workflow allows editing sampling methods, defining uncertain variables and their statistics, and generating output reports of volumetric results.

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1K views18 pages

4.1. Uncertainty

1. The document describes steps for conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in geocellular modeling. It discusses sensitivity analysis parameters, plotting sensitivity results through tornado plots and sensitivity plots, and generating output reports. 2. Tornado plots rank sensitivity variables and sensitivity plots visualize sensitivity data without ranking, useful for screening optimization variables. 3. The workflow allows editing sampling methods, defining uncertain variables and their statistics, and generating output reports of volumetric results.

Uploaded by

anima1982
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Steps of Uncertainty processes

Do sensitivity first of all to know which step of geocellular model is more sensitive to
volume calculation. In our case make contact is more sensitive than others like as
geometrical, petro physical modeling.
This will do the sensitivity analysis of following parametres.
Keep base seed for
facies and petrophysical
modeling
In this steps will calculate number of samples
Showing variable spreadsheet from case of sensitivity parameters.
If required, can add a new columns representing the variables you want to review.
In task pane on scrolling down option of uncertainty and sensitivity will come
Which need to be selected as per need.
Plotting sensitivity results
1. Tornado plot
2. Sensitivity plots


Plotting sensitivity results

Describes the different plotting options available to review the results from a sensitivty analysis. Once a
Sensitivity (by process or variable) analysis has been run, the results, in form of cases, are stored in the Cases
pane. A folder management system ensures that every new case is placed in a folder named after the type of
uncertainty that was run.
A number of different plots are available to analyze and show the results from this process, such as Tornado
plot or Sensitivity plots. In addition to these methods you can analyze the folders of simulation results using the
techniques for plotting uncertainty results.

Tornado plot

A Tornado plot is used to rank sensitivity variables.
To create and populate a tornado plot:
In the Window menu choose Tornado plot window, an empty Tornado plot window will appear.
In the Cases pane select a Sensitivity folder.
In the Results pane select at least one entry under the Dynamic results data and select an entry from the identifier
folder.
Sensitivity plot analysis
Description of an example of such a plot is: what is unit of sensitivity of blue band?
In this example there are four variables in the sensitivity study $HEIGHT, $GOC,
$ProdRATE and $InjBHP. The following points are important concerning this plot:

This plot was generated by selecting Oil production cumulative within the Dynamic
results data in the Results pane.

The x-axis shows the spread of the oil production cumulative for each of the
sensitivity variables, in this case the $HEIGHT variable is most sensitive, and the
$InjBHP is least sensitive. This plot could be used to screen which variables to use in
an optimization run. In the example, $InjBHP will not significantly affect the objective
function of total oil production. If the objective function changes, then the tornado plot
using the revised objective function needs to be reexamined. Removing variables will
significantly reduce the cost of optimization.

You can view a specific simulation time by changing the time intersect from the
bottom right hand corner of the window.

2. Sensitivity plots
Sensitivity plots are another way to visualize the data generated from a sensitivity
process, these plots are primarily used for volumetric sensitivities.
This workflow can also be performed for simulation sensitivity studies, however, often
there are not enough runs to generate high quality histograms.

To generate this plot:
Right-click on sensitivity folder storing the results in the Case pane, and select Create
sensitivity plot in the contextual menu.
Select the desired parameter to view from the Results pane.

The tornado plot gives a quick visual guide to the relative sensitivities of each variable.
Unlike the tornado plot, the sensitivity plot does not rank for significance.
Sensitivity plot description?
ON clicking edit workflow option the workflow will be displayed for editing , deleting or
Adding properties enabled option means we direct Petrel to run that process without
Fail however auto option means petrel will decide whether to take that flow in calculation
Or not. Moreover on clickingautogenerateworkflow seed parameter where $seed is
Defined will be changed by default toorignalseed number.
In variable option workflow define ineditworkflow mode in base case tab will be displayed
Wherein in type option you need to decide when to take uncertain and when to take expression
Further base value is vital to define as without base value the system will give error and
arguments i.e. min max std mean need to be see from statistic of the model parameters and
Need to be defined.

In uncertainty tab option sampling method which u define will govern the output for
stochastic DeterminatinMontecarlosampler is used whereinlatinhyper cube and orthogonal
Array Sampling can be selected however for deterministic approach other sampling method
such equal Spacing sampler can be used.
After going in setting icon of volume calculation click on report setting the window as displayed
Above will be visualized wherein click on make report .which will generate output sheet as
Displayed in next slide.
After test and run thevolumetricsresult will be generated in result pane which can be
Displayed in plot window after toggling on the desired parameters

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