Introduction

Implementation
Examples

Real life
Probability

Logic/ Concept/
Shortcuts
Introduction

Probability is nothing but possibility

1 Possibility
So, 2 possibilities

Then the probability of

going to office is
½ Or 0.5 or 50%
1 Possibility And always total
probability will be
1 or 100% we can say
• Coins
• Dice
• Playing cards
• Marbles or Balls
 Coins

1 Coin 3 Coins
• Head 1 2 3 Probability of 2 heads?

• Tail H H H So, 3 possibilities out of 8

2 Coins H H T 3/8 is the probability of 2 heads

1 2 H T H
H T T
H H Probability of at least 2 heads?
T H H
H T
T H T So, 4 possibilities out of 8
T H 4/8 = 1/2 is the probability of
T T H
T T 2 heads
T T T
 Dice
1 Dice 2 Dice 6 X 6 = 36
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 1 11 12 13 14 15 16
3 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Probability of getting
a sum more than 8
4 3 31 32 33 34 35 36
10 numbers

5 4 41 42 43 44 45 46 So, prob = 10/36

Probability of getting a
6 5 51 52 53 54 55 56 product more than 10
6 61 62 63 64 65 66 17So,numbers
prob = 17/36
Example
In a throw of two dice, find the probability of getting one prime and one
composite number.

The probability of getting a prime number when a dices is thrown is 3/6 = 1/2.
( 2, 3 or 5 out of 6 possibilities )
The probability of getting a composite number when a dices is thrown is 2/6 = 1/3.
( 4 or 6 out of 6 possibilities )

The 1st dice is prime & 2nd composite The 1st dice is composite & 2nd prime

= (1/2) x (1/3) + (1/3) x (1/2)

So The 1st dice is prime & 2nd composite or The 1st dice is composite & 2nd prime

= 1/3
Playing cards
13 cards
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K
So, total 52 cards
Probability of king or queen
Probability of queen
4 kings and 4 queens
4 queens
Out of 52 cards
Out of 52 cards
So, the probability (4/52)
So, the probability 4/52 + (4/52)
(ie) 1/13 Or, directly 8/52
(ie) 2/13
Playing cards
13 cards
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K
So, total 52 cards
Probability of getting a king and
queen while picking 2 cards Probability of 2 black cards
4 queens 26 Blacks
So, 1st card prob is 4/52 So, 1st card prob is 26/52

The 2nd card, now only 4 kings The 2nd card, now only 25 black
& total 51 cards available & total 51 cards available

So, 2nd card prob is 4/51 So, 2nd card prob is 25/51
Total prob = ( ) X ( ) Total prob = ( ) X ( )
Playing cards
13 cards
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K
So, total 52 cards
Probability of 2 queen while Probability of 2 queen while picking 2
picking 2 cards without replacing cards with replacing
4 queens 4 queens
So, 1st card prob is 4/52 So, 1st card prob is 4/52
Then it is left back in the pack

The 2nd card, now only 3 The 2nd card, now only 4 queens
queens & 51 cards available & 52 cards available

So, 2nd card prob is 3/51 So, 2nd card prob is 4/52
Total prob = ( ) X ( ) Total prob = ( ) X ( )
 Example
Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards.
What is the probability that either both are black or both are queen?

Both black Both queen Both black queen

( ) X ( ) + () X ( ) - () X ( ) =( )

n(s)=52c2=(52*51)/(2*1)=1326. P(A)=n(A)/n(S)=325/1326;
Let A= both black B= both queens P(B)=n(B)/n(S)=6/1326 and
A∩B= both queen of black P(A ∪ B)=n(A∩B)/n(S)=1/1326
n(A)=26c2=(26*25)/(2*1)=325, P(A ∪ B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)
n(B)=4c2=(4*3)/(2*1)=6 =(325+6-1/1326)
And n(A∩B)=2c2=1 =330/1326=55/221
 Example
Ajay and Vijay appear for the CAT exam. The probabilities of them
clearing the aptitude tests are 1/6 and 1⁄4 respectively. Find the
probability that:

None of them clear the test. Exactly one of them clear the test.

Prob of ajay failing the test is 5/6 Case 1:

Prob of ajay passing and vijay failing is
Prob of vijay failing the test is 3/4
1/6 x 3/4
So, Case 2:
Prob of ajay & vijay failing the test is Prob of ajay failing and vijay passing is
= (5/6) x (3/4)
5/6 x 1/4
We want 1st case or the 2nd case. So,
(1/6 x 3/4) + (5/6 x 1/4 )
 Example
A bag contains 5 red and 3 green balls. Another bag contains
4 red and 6 green balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag
what is the probability that one ball is red and one is green?

Prob of getting Red in 1st bag and Prob of getting Green in 1st bag
Green in 2nd bag and Red in 2nd bag
1st bag Red & 2nd bag Green 1st bag Green & 2nd bag Red
5/8 x 6/10 3/8 x 4/10

OR

( 5/8 x 6/10 ) + ( 3/8 x 4/10 ) = ( 21/40 )

Example
There are two bags containing white and black balls. In the first bag, there
are 8 white and 6 black balls and in the second bag, there are 4 white and 7
black balls. One ball is drawn at random from any of these two bags. Find the
probability of this ball being black.

We need :
1st bag and black ball OR 2nd Bag and Black Ball.
The chances of picking up either the 1st OR the 2nd Bag are 1/2 each.

Probability of Black ball in 1st bag is = 6/14.

Probability of Black ball in 2nd bag is = 7/11.

So the probability of that black ball is

= (1/2) x (6/14) + (1/2)x (7/11)
= (3/14)+ (7/22)
= 41/77
Example
A father purchases dress for his three daughters. The dresses are of
same color but of different size. The dress is kept in dark room .What
is the probability that all the three will not choose their own dress.

Probability of 1st girl choosing wrong dress out of 3 is =2/3.

Probability of 2nd girl choosing wrong dress out of 2 is = 1/2.
Probability of 3rd girl choosing wrong dress out of 1 is = 1

So probability that all the 3 will not choose their own dress is
=2/3*1/2*1
=1/3.
Choose the correct option In an objective exam which has 3 answer options
each for all the 20 questions. What is the probability that Samir answers 9
questions incorrectly?

Answer: (20c9 X (2^9)X 1^11)/(3^20)

A company needs to choose a team of four, from a group of 3 content
managers, 3 R&D Engineers and 5 client Engagement Managers for
completion of a project. What is the probability that exactly 3 of them are
Client Engagement Manager?

3 managers: 5C3 * 6C1 / 11C4 = 60/330

Example
My name is PREET. But my son accidentally types the name by interchanging
a pair of letters in my name. What is the probability that despite this
interchange, the name remains unchanged?

10 combinations for change are

( 5C2 = 5x4/2x1 = 10 )
PR PE PE PT
RE RE RT
EE ET
ET

Son can interchange a pair in 10 combination out of which only one keeps the
name unchanged Which is EE.

so the probability that despite this interchange, the name remains unchanged =
1/10 = 10%
Example
Find the probability that a leap year chosen at random will have 53 Sundays.

A leap year has 366 days.

52 complete weeks will have 364 days.

The 365th day can be a Sunday (Probability 1/7) OR

The 366th day can be a Sunday (Probability 1/7).
So probability of having 53 Sundays is 1/7 +1/7 = 2/7.
Example
An anti-aircraft gun can fire four shots at a time. If the probabilities of
the first, second, third and last shot hitting the enemy aircraft are 0.7,
0.6, 0.5 & 0.4. What is the probability that four shots aimed at an
enemy aircraft will bring the aircraft down?

Probability of all shots missing the targets:

0 .3 X 0 .4 X 0 .5 X 0 .6 = 0.036

So, Total probability – all shot miss

1 - 0.036 = 0.964