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Chapter 5 Normal Probability Distributions

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119 views98 pages

Chapter 5 Normal Probability Distributions

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daralextiany
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

Chapter 5 Normal Probability Distributions

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman EDITION
1
Chapter 5
Normal Probability Distributions
5-1 Overview
5-2 The Standard Normal Distribution
5-3 Normal Distributions: Finding Probabilities
5-4 Normal Distributions: Finding Values
5-5 The Central Limit Theorem
5-6 Normal Distribution as Approximation to
Binomial Distribution
5-7 Determining Normality
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 2
5-1 Overview
 Continuous random variable
 Normal distribution

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 3
5-1 Overview
 Continuous random variable
 Normal distribution
Curve is bell shaped
and symmetric

Figure 5-1

µ
Score

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 4
5-1 Overview
 Continuous random variable
 Normal distribution
Curve is bell shaped
and symmetric

Figure 5-1

µ
Score 2
x-µ
1
2 ( )
Formula 5-1 y= e
 2

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 5
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 5-2 The Standard Normal Distribution

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


EDITION6
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman
5-2

The Standard Normal


Distribution

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 7
Definitions
 Uniform Distribution
a probability distribution in which the
continuous random variable values
are spread evenly over the range of
possibilities; the graph results in a
rectangular shape.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 8
Definitions
 Density Curve (or probability density
function)
the graph of a continuous probability
distribution

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 9
Definitions
 Density Curve (or probability density
function)
the graph of a continuous probability
distribution
1. The total area under the curve must
equal 1.

2. Every point on the curve must have a


vertical height that is 0 or greater.
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 10
Because the total area under
the density curve is equal to 1,
there is a correspondence
between area and probability.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 11
Times in First or Last Half Hours
Figure 5-3

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 12
Heights of Adult Men and Women

Women:
µ = 63.6
 = 2.5 Men:
µ = 69.0
 = 2.8

63.6 69.0
Figure 5-4
Height (inches)
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 13
Definition
Standard Normal Deviation
a normal probability distribution that has a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 14
Definition
Standard Normal Deviation
a normal probability distribution that has a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Area = 0.3413 Area found in


Table A-2

0.4429

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 z = 1.58
Score (z )
Figure 5-5 Figure 5-6

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 15
Table A-2
 Back left cover of text book

 Formulas and Tables card

 Appendix

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 16
Table A-2
Standard Normal Distribution
µ=0 =1

0 x

z
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 17
Table A-2 Standard Normal (z) Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
0.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
0.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
0.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549
0.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
0.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
0.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621
1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962 .3980 .3997 .4015
1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177
1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7
1.8
.4554
.4641
.4564
.4649
.4573
.4656
.4582
.4664
.4591
.4671
* .4599
.4678
.4608
.4686
.4616
.4693
.4625
.4699
.4633
.4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817
2.1 .4821 .4826 .4830 .4834 .4838 .4842 .4846 .4850 .4854 .4857
2.2 .4861 .4864 .4868 .4871 .4875 .4878 .4881 .4884 .4887 .4890
2.3 .4893 .4896 .4898 .4901 .4904 .4906 .4909 .4911 .4913 .4916
2.4 .4918 .4920 .4922 .4925 .4927 .4929 .4931 .4932 .4934 .4936
2.5 .4938 .4940 .4941 .4943 .4945 .4946 .4948 .4949 .4951 .4952
2.6
2.7
.4953
.4965
.4955
.4966
.4956
.4967
.4957
.4968
.4959
.4969
.4960
.4970
.4961
.4971
.4962
.4972
* .4963
.4973
.4964
.4974
2.8 .4974 .4975 .4976 .4977 .4977 .4978 .4979 .4979 .4980 .4981
2.9 .4981 .4982 .4982 .4983 .4984 .4984 .4985 .4985 .4986 .4986
3.0 .4987 .4987 .4987 .4988 .4988 .4989 .4989 .4989 .4990 .4990
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 18
To find:
z Score
the distance along horizontal scale of the
standard normal distribution; refer to the
leftmost column and top row of Table A-2

Area
the region under the curve; refer to the
values in the body of Table A-2
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 19
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 20
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees.

P ( 0 < x < 1.58 ) =

0 1.58

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 21
Table A-2 Standard Normal (z) Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
0.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
0.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
0.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549
0.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
0.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
0.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621
1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962 .3980 .3997 .4015
1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177
1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7
1.8
.4554
.4641
.4564
.4649
.4573
.4656
.4582
.4664
.4591
.4671
* .4599
.4678
.4608
.4686
.4616
.4693
.4625
.4699
.4633
.4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817
2.1 .4821 .4826 .4830 .4834 .4838 .4842 .4846 .4850 .4854 .4857
2.2 .4861 .4864 .4868 .4871 .4875 .4878 .4881 .4884 .4887 .4890
2.3 .4893 .4896 .4898 .4901 .4904 .4906 .4909 .4911 .4913 .4916
2.4 .4918 .4920 .4922 .4925 .4927 .4929 .4931 .4932 .4934 .4936
2.5 .4938 .4940 .4941 .4943 .4945 .4946 .4948 .4949 .4951 .4952
2.6
2.7
.4953
.4965
.4955
.4966
.4956
.4967
.4957
.4968
.4959
.4969
.4960
.4970
.4961
.4971
.4962
.4972
* .4963
.4973
.4964
.4974
2.8 .4974 .4975 .4976 .4977 .4977 .4978 .4979 .4979 .4980 .4981
2.9 .4981 .4982 .4982 .4983 .4984 .4984 .4985 .4985 .4986 .4986
3.0 .4987 .4987 .4987 .4988 .4988 .4989 .4989 .4989 .4990 .4990
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 22
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees.

Area = 0.4429

P ( 0 < x < 1.58 ) = 0.4429

0 1.58

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 23
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees.

Area = 0.4429

P ( 0 < x < 1.58 ) = 0.4429

0 1.58

The probability that the chosen


thermometer will measure freezing water
between 0 and 1.58 degrees is 0.4429.
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 24
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees.

Area = 0.4429

P ( 0 < x < 1.58 ) = 0.4429

0 1.58

There is 44.29% of the thermometers with


readings between 0 and 1.58 degrees.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 25
Using Symmetry to Find the Area
to the Left of the Mean
Because of symmetry, these areas are equal.
Figure 5-7

(a) (b)

0.4925 0.4925

0 0

z = - 2.43 Equal distance away from 0 z = 2.43


NOTE: Although a z score can be negative, the area
under the curve (or the corresponding probability)
can never be negative.
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 26
Example: If thermometers have an average (mean)
reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree
for freezing water, and if one thermometer is randomly
selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water
between -2.43 degrees and 0 degrees.
Area = 0.4925
P ( -2.43 < x < 0 ) = 0.4925

-2.43 0
The probability that the chosen thermometer
will measure freezing water between -2.43
and 0 degrees is 0.4925.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 27
The Empirical Rule
Standard Normal Distribution: µ = 0 and  = 1

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 28
The Empirical Rule
Standard Normal Distribution: µ = 0 and  = 1

68% within
1 standard deviation

34% 34%

x-s x x+s
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 29
The Empirical Rule
Standard Normal Distribution: µ = 0 and  = 1

95% within
2 standard deviations

68% within
1 standard deviation

34% 34%

13.5% 13.5%

x - 2s x-s x x+s x + 2s
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 30
The Empirical Rule
Standard Normal Distribution: µ = 0 and  = 1
99.7% of data are within 3 standard deviations of the mean

95% within
2 standard deviations

68% within
1 standard deviation

34% 34%
2.4% 2.4%
0.1% 0.1%
13.5% 13.5%

x - 3s x - 2s x-s x x+s x + 2s x + 3s
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 31
Probability of Half of a Distribution

0.5

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 32
Finding the Area to the Right of z = 1.27

Value found
in Table A-2

0.3980 This area is


0.5 - 0.3980 = 0.1020

0 z = 1.27

Figure 5-8

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 33
Finding the Area Between z = 1.20 and z = 2.30

0.4893 (from Table A-2 with z = 2.30)

Area A is 0.4893 - 0.3849 =


0.1044
0.3849

A
0 z = 1.20 z = 2.30

Figure 5-9

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 34
Notation
P(a < z < b)
denotes the probability that the z score is between a and
b
P(z > a)
denotes the probability that the z score is greater than
a
P (z < a)
denotes the probability that the z score is less than a

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 35
Figure 5-10 Interpreting Area Correctly

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 36
Figure 5-10 Interpreting Area Correctly
Subtract
‘greater than x’ Add to from
0.5 0.5
‘at least x’
‘more than x’
‘not less than x’ 0.5
x x

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 37
Figure 5-10 Interpreting Area Correctly
Subtract
‘greater than x’ Add to from
0.5 0.5
‘at least x’
‘more than x’
‘not less than x’ 0.5
x x
Add to
‘less than x’ Subtract 0.5
from
‘at most x’ 0.5
‘no more than x’
‘not greater than x’ 0.5
x x

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 38
Figure 5-10 Interpreting Area Correctly
Subtract
‘greater than x’ Add to from
0.5 0.5
‘at least x’
‘more than x’
‘not less than x’ 0.5
x x
Add to
‘less than x’ Subtract 0.5
from
‘at most x’ 0.5
‘no more than x’
‘not greater than x’ 0.5
x x
Add
C
Use
A=C-B
‘between x1 and x2’
A B

x1 x2 x1 x2
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 39
Finding a z - score when given a probability
Using Table A-2
1. Draw a bell-shaped curve, draw the centerline, and identify
the region under the curve that corresponds to the given
probability. If that region is not bounded by the centerline,
work with a known region that is bounded by the centerline.

2. Using the probability representing the area bounded by the


centerline, locate the closest probability in the body of
Table A-2 and identify the corresponding z score.

3. If the z score is positioned to the left of the centerline, make


it a negative.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 40
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

95% 5%

5% or 0.05

0.50 0.45

0 z
( z score will be positive )
FIGURE 5-11 Finding the 95th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 41
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

95% 5%

5% or 0.05

0.50 0.45

0 1.645
(z score will be positive)
FIGURE 5-11 Finding the 95th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 42
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

10% 90%

Bottom 10%

0.10 0.40
z 0
(z score will be negative)
FIGURE 5-12 Finding the 10th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 43
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

10% 90%

Bottom 10%

0.10 0.40
-1.28 0
(z score will be negative)
FIGURE 5-12 Finding the 10th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 44
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 5-3 Normal Distributions: Finding Probabilities

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


EDITION45
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman
Other Normal Distributions

If  
 0 or  1 (or both), we will convert
values to standard scores using Formula 5-2, then
procedures for working with all normal distributions
are the same as those for the standard normal
distribution.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 46
Other Normal Distributions

If  
 0 or  1 (or both), we will convert
values to standard scores using Formula 5-2, then
procedures for working with all normal distributions
are the same as those for the standard normal
distribution.

x-µ
Formula 5-2 z= 
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 47
Converting to Standard Normal
Distribution

P
(a)  x

Figure 5-13
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 48
Converting to Standard Normal
Distribution

x-
z= 

P P
(a)  x
(b)
0 z

Figure 5-13
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 49
Probability of Weight between 143
pounds and 201 pounds

z =201 - 143 = 2.00


x = 143 29
s =29

Weight
143 201
z
Figure 5-14 0 2.00
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 50
Probability of Weight between 143
pounds and 201 pounds

Value found
in Table A-2
x = 143
s =29

Weight
143 201
z
Figure 5-14 0 2.00
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 51
Probability of Weight between 143
pounds and 201 pounds

x = 143
0.4772
s =29

Weight
143 201
z
Figure 5-14 0 2.00
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 52
Probability of Weight between 143
pounds and 201 pounds
There is a 0.4772 probability of
randomly selecting a woman with
a weight between 143 and 201
x = 143 lbs.
s =29

Weight
143 201
z
Figure 5-14 0 2.00
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 53
Probability of Weight between 143
pounds and 201 pounds
OR - 47.72% of women have
weights between 143 lb and 201
lb.
x = 143
s =29

Weight
143 201
z
Figure 5-14 0 2.00
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 54
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 5-4 Normal Distributions: Finding Values

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


EDITION55
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman
Cautions to keep in mind
1. Don’t confuse z scores and areas.
Z scores are distances along the horizontal
scale, but areas are regions under the
normal curve. Table A-2 lists z scores in
the left column and across the top row, but
areas are found in the body of the table.
2. Choose the correct (right/left) side of the
graph.
3. A z score must be negative whenever it is
located to the left of the centerline of 0.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 56
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

95% 5%

5% or 0.05

0.50 0.45

0 1.645
(z score will be positive)
FIGURE 5-11 Finding the 95th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 57
Finding z Scores when Given Probabilities

10% 90%

Bottom 10%

0.10 0.40
-1.28 0
(z score will be negative)
FIGURE 5-12 Finding the 10th Percentile
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 58
Procedure for Finding Values
Using Table A-2 and Formula 5-2
1. Sketch a normal distribution curve, enter the given probability or percentage in the
appropriate region of the graph, and identify the x value(s) being sought.

2. Use Table A-2 to find the z score corresponding to the region bounded by x and
the centerline of 0. Cautions:
 Refer to the BODY of Table A-2 to find the closest area, then identify the
corresponding z score.
 Make the z score negative if it is located to the left of the centerline.

3. Using Formula 5-2, enter the values for µ, , and the z score found in step 2, then
solve for x.

x = µ + (z • ) (Another form of Formula 5-2)

4. Refer to the sketch of the curve to verify that the solution makes sense in the
context of the graph and the context of the problem.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 59
Finding P10 for Weights of Women

10% 90%

40% 50%
Weight
x=? 143
FIGURE 5-17
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 60
Finding P10 for Weights of Women

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x=? 143
FIGURE 5-17
-1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 61
Finding P10 for Weights of Women
x = 143 + (-1.28 • 29) =
105.88

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x=? 143
FIGURE 5-17
-1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 62
Finding P10 for Weights of Women
The weight of 106 lb (rounded) separates
the lowest 10% from the highest 90%.

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x = 106 143
FIGURE 5-17
-1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 63
Forgot to make z score negative???
x = 143 + (1.28 • 29) = 180

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x=? 143
FIGURE 5-17
1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 64
Forgot to make z score negative???
x = 143 + (1.28 • 29) = 180

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x = 180 143
FIGURE 5-17
1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 65
Forgot to make z score negative???
UNREASONABLE
ANSWER!

0.10
0.40 0.50
Weight
x = 180 143
FIGURE 5-17
1.28 0
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 66
REMEMBER!

Make the z score negative if the


value is located to the left (below)
the mean. Otherwise, the z score
will be positive.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 67
ELEMENTARY
STATISTICS
Section 5-5 The Central Limit Theorem

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


EDITION68
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman
Definition
Sampling Distribution of the mean
the probability distribution of
sample means, with all samples
having the same sample size n.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 69
Central Limit Theorem
Given:
1. The random variable x has a distribution (which
may or may not be normal) with mean µ and
standard deviation .
2. Samples all of the same size n are randomly
selected from the population of x values.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 70
Central Limit Theorem
Conclusions:

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 71
Central Limit Theorem
Conclusions:
1. The distribution of sample x will, as the sample
size increases, approach a normal distribution.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 72
Central Limit Theorem
Conclusions:
1. The distribution of sample x will, as the sample
size increases, approach a normal distribution.
2. The mean of the sample means will be the
population mean µ.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 73
Central Limit Theorem
Conclusions:
1. The distribution of sample x will, as the sample
size increases, approach a normal distribution.
2. The mean of the sample means will be the
population mean µ.

3. The standard deviation of the sample means


will approach 
n

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 74
Practical Rules Commonly Used:

1. For samples of size n larger than 30, the distribution of


the sample means can be approximated reasonably well
by a normal distribution. The approximation gets better
as the sample size n becomes larger.

2. If the original population is itself normally distributed,


then the sample means will be normally distributed for
any sample size n (not just the values of n larger than 30).

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 75
Notation

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 76
Notation
the mean of the sample means

µx = µ


Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 77
Notation
the mean of the sample means

µx = µ
the standard deviation of sample mean

 
 x = n

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 78
Notation
the mean of the sample means

µx = µ
the standard deviation of sample mean

 
x = n
(often called standard error of the mean)

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 79
Distribution of 200 digits from
Social Security Numbers
(Last 4 digits from 50 students)

20
Frequency

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Distribution of 200 digits


Figure 5-19
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 80
Table 5-2
SSN digits x
1 8 6 4 4.75
5 3 3 6 4.25
9 8 8 8 8.25
5 1 2 5 3.25
9 3 3 5 5.00
4 2 6 2 3.50
7 7 1 6 5.25
9 1 5 4 4.75
5 3 3 9 5.00
7 3 4 2
2 7 6 6 4.00
6 7 7 1 5.25
2 3 3 9 4.25
2 4 7 5 4.50
5 4 3 7 4.75
0 4 3 8 3.75
2 5 8 6 5.25
7 1 3 4 3.75
8 3 7 0 4.50
5 6 6 7 6.00

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 81
Distribution of 50 Sample Means for
50 Students

15
Frequency

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 5-20

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 82
As the sample size increases,
the sampling distribution of
sample means approaches a
normal distribution.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 83
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, find the probability
that her weight is greater than 150 lb.
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 84
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, find the probability
that her weight is greater than 150 lb.

z = 150-143 = 0.24
29
0.5 - 0.0948 = 0.4052

0.0948

 = 143 150
= 29

0 0.24
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 85
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, the probability that
her weight is greater than 150 lb. is 0.4052.

0.5 - 0.0948 = 0.4052

0.0948

 = 143 150
= 29

0 0.24
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 86
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 87
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb.

x = 143 150
x= 29 = 4.83333
36
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 88
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb.

z = 150-143 = 1.45
29
36

0.4265

x = 143 150
x= 4.83333

0 1.45
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 89
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb.

z = 150-143 = 1.45
29
36 0.5 - 0.4265 = 0.0735

0.4265

x = 143 150
x= 4.83333

0 1.45
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 90
Example: Given the population of women has normally
distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a standard
deviation of 29 lb,
b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, the
probability that their mean weight is greater than 150 lb is
0.0735.

z = 150-143 = 1.45
29
36 0.5 - 0.4265 = 0.0735

0.4265

x = 143 150
x= 4.83333

0 1.45
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 91
Example: Given the population of women has
normally distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a
standard deviation of 29 lb,

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 92
Example: Given the population of women has
normally distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a
standard deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, find the probability
that her weight is greater than 150 lb.

P(x > 150) = 0.4052

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 93
Example: Given the population of women has
normally distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a
standard deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, find the probability that
her weight is greater than 150 lb.

P(x > 150) = 0.4052


b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, their mean
weight is greater than 150 lb.

P(x> 150) = 0.0735

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 94
Example: Given the population of women has
normally distributed weights with a mean of 143 lb and a
standard deviation of 29 lb,
a.) if one woman is randomly selected, find the probability that
her weight is greater than 150 lb.

P(x > 150) = 0.4052


b.) if 36 different women are randomly selected, their mean
weight is greater than 150 lb.

P(x > 150) = 0.0735


It is much easier for an individual to deviate from the mean than
it is for a group of 36 to deviate from the mean.

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 95
Sampling Without Replacement

If n > 0.05 N

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 96
Sampling Without Replacement

If n > 0.05 N

 N-n
x =
n N-1

Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 97
Sampling Without Replacement

If n > 0.05 N

 N-n
x =
n
N-1

finite population
correction factor
Chapter 5. Section 5-1 and 5-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 98

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