Chapter 9

Correlation and
Regression

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 Chapter Outline
• 9.1 Correlation
• 9.2 Linear Regression
• 9.3 Measures of Regression and Prediction Intervals
• 9.4 Multiple Regression

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 Section 9.1

Correlation

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 Section 9.1 Objectives
• An introduction to linear correlation, independent and
dependent variables, and the types of correlation
• How to find a correlation coefficient
• How to distinguish between correlation and causation

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 Correlation
Correlation
• A relationship between two variables.
• The data can be represented by ordered pairs (x, y)
 x is the independent (or explanatory) variable
 y is the dependent (or response) variable

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 Correlation
You try, Identify the explanatory (independent) variable
and the response (dependent) variable.

A teacher wants to determine if the teaching method used

by her students can be used to predict the students' test
scores.

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 Correlation
• In a scatter plot, the ordered pairs (x, y) are graphed
as points in a coordinate plane.
• The independent (explanatory) variable x is measured
on the horizontal axis, and the dependent (response)
variable y is measured on the vertical axis.
• A scatter plot can be used to determine whether a
linear (straight line) correlation exists between two
variables.

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 Correlation

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 Example: Constructing a
Scatter Plot
An economist wants to determine
whether there is a linear relationship
between a country’s gross domestic
product (GDP) and carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions. The data are
shown in the table. Display the data
in a scatter plot and describe the
type of correlation. (Source: World
Bank and U.S. Energy Information
Administration)

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 Solution: Constructing a
Scatter Plot

Appears to be a positive linear correlation. Reading

from left to right, as the gross domestic products
increase, the carbon dioxide emissions tend to increase.
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 Example: Constructing a
Scatter Plot
You try, Give an example of 2 variables that are negatively
correlated.

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 Example: Constructing a
Scatter Plot
A student conducts a study to determine whether there is
a linear relationship between the number of hours a
student exercises each week and the student’s grade
point average (GPA). The data are shown in the table
below. Display the data in a scatter plot and describe the
type of correlation.

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 Example: Constructing a
Scatter Plot
Solution:
From the scatter plot, it appears that there is no linear correlation
between the variables.

The number of hours a student exercises each week

does not appear to be related to the student’s
grade point average.
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 Correlation Coefficient
Correlation coefficient
• A measure of the strength and the direction of a linear
relationship between two variables.
• The symbol r represents the sample correlation
coefficient.
• A formula for r is
n  xy   x y n is the number
r
n  x 2   x
2
n  y 2   y
2 of data pairs

• The population correlation coefficient is represented

by ρ (rho).
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 Correlation Coefficient
• The range of the correlation coefficient is –1 to 1.

–1 0 1
If r = –1 there is If r is close to 0 If r = 1 there is a
a perfect there is no linear perfect positive
negative correlation correlation
correlation

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 Linear Correlation

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 Example: Using Technology to
Find a Correlation Coefficient
Use a technology tool to
calculate the correlation
coefficient for the Old
Faithful data. What can you
conclude? The data can be
found in the StatCrunch data
set “Old_Faithful” from
Chapter 9.

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 Solution: Using Technology to
Find a Correlation Coefficient
r 0.979.
This value of r
suggests a strong
positive correlation.

As the durations of
the eruptions increase,
the times until the
next eruption tend to
increase.

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 Using Technology to Find a
Correlation Coefficient
You try, An economist wants to
determine whether there is a linear
relationship between a country’s
gross domestic product (GDP) and
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
The data are shown in the table.
Find the correlation coefficient.
(Source: World Bank and U.S. Energy
Information Administration)

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 Possible Explanations for a
Correlation
1. The correlation may be a coincidence.

2. Both variables might be directly influenced by some

common underlying cause.
3. One of the correlated variables may actually be a
cause of the other. Note that, even in this case, it may
be only one of several causes.

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Example: Explanation for a Correlation
Consider the negative correlation between infant
mortality and life expectancy. Which of the three
possible explanations for a correlation applies?

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 Example: Explanation for a
Correlation
Consider the negative correlation between infant
mortality and life expectancy. Which of the three
possible explanations for a correlation applies?
The negative correlation is probably due to a
common underlying cause – the quality of health
care. In countries where health care is better in
general, infant mortality is lower and life expectancy
is higher.

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 Eating Breakfast May Beat
Teen Obesity
In the study, published in Pediatrics, researchers analyzed the dietary and
weight patterns of 2,216 adolescents over a five-year period (1998-1999 to
2003-2004) from public schools in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.

The researchers write that teens who ate breakfast regularly had a lower
percentage of total calories from saturated fat and ate more fiber and
carbohydrates than those who skipped breakfast. In addition, regular
breakfast eaters seemed more physically active than breakfast skippers.

Over time, researchers found teens who regularly ate breakfast tended to
gain less weight and had a lower body mass index than breakfast skippers.

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 Example: Explanation for a
Correlation
You try, Consider the correlation between breakfast
skipping and adolescent obesity? Which of the three
possible explanations for a correlation applies?

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/xa88
397b6:scatterplots/estimating-trend-lines/v/correlatio
n-and-causality

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 Section 9.2

Linear Regression

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 Section 9.2 Objectives
• How to find the equation of a regression line
• How to predict y-values using a regression equation

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 Regression lines
• After verifying that the linear correlation between
two variables is significant, the next step is to
determine the equation of the line that best models
the data.
• This line is called a regression line, and its equation
can be used to predict the value of y for a given value
y
of x.

x
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 Residuals
• For each data point, di represents the difference between the
observed y-value and the predicted y-value for a given x-value.
• These differences are called residuals and can be positive,
negative, or zero.

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 Regression Line
Regression line (line of best fit)
• The line for which the sum of the squares of the
residuals is a minimum.  di2
• The equation of a regression line for an independent
variable x and a dependent variable y is
ŷ = mx + b
y-intercept
Predicted Slope
y-value for
a given x-
value
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 The Equation of a Regression
Line
• The equation of a regression line for an independent
variable x and a dependent variable y is
ŷ = mx + b
where is the predicted y-value for a given x-value.
The slope m and y-intercept b are given by
n  xy   x y y x
m 2 b y  mx   m
n  x 2   x n n
where is the mean of the y-values in the data set, is
the mean of the x-values, and n is the number of pairs
of data.

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 Example: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
The regression equation for the gross domestic products
(in trillions of dollars) and carbon dioxide emissions (in
millions of metric tons) data is ŷ = 199.535x + 56.036.
Use this equation to predict the expected carbon dioxide
emissions for the following gross domestic products.
(Recall from section 9.1 that x and y have a significant
linear correlation.)
1. $1.2 trillion dollars
2. $2.6 trillion dollars

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 Solution: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
1. $1.2 trillion dollars
To predict the expected carbon dioxide emissions,
substitute each gross domestic product for x in the
regression equation. Then calculate .

When the gross domestic product is $1.2 trillion, the

predicted CO2 emissions are 295.478 million metric
tons.
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 Solution: Predicting y-Values
Using Regression Equations
2. You try, $2.6 trillion dollars
To predict the expected carbon dioxide emissions,
substitute each gross domestic product for x in the
regression equation. Then calculate .

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 Ch. 9.2 HW, #2

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 Using Technology to Predict
y-Values
You try, An economist wants to
determine whether there is a linear
relationship between a country’s
gross domestic product (GDP) and
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Use
the data to predict the CO2 emissions
of country whose GDP is 4.3 trillion
dollars. (Source: World Bank and U.S.
Energy Information Administration)

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