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Assignment 1 Probability

This document provides details and instructions for 6 problems related to probability concepts for Assignment 1. Students are asked to upload their work to Moodle by September 23 at 9:00am. The problems cover topics like the probability of a basketball team winning and drawing a large crowd, the probability of a lost soldier arriving at different oases, predicting market conditions, catching a bus on time, estimating standard deviation of pencil sales, and modeling customer arrivals at a hair salon.

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Tsui Betty
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394 views3 pages

Assignment 1 Probability

This document provides details and instructions for 6 problems related to probability concepts for Assignment 1. Students are asked to upload their work to Moodle by September 23 at 9:00am. The problems cover topics like the probability of a basketball team winning and drawing a large crowd, the probability of a lost soldier arriving at different oases, predicting market conditions, catching a bus on time, estimating standard deviation of pencil sales, and modeling customer arrivals at a hair salon.

Uploaded by

Tsui Betty
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment 1: Probability 

Due: Sep 23 (Monday), 9:00am 
Upload your work to Moodle 
Problem 1. The Springfield Kings 
The  Springfield  Kings,  a  professional  basketball  team,  has  won  16  of  its  last  20  games  and  is 
expected to continue winning at the same percentage rate. The team’s ticket manager is anxious 
to attract a large crowd to tomorrow’s game but believes that depends on how well the Kings 
perform tonight against the Galveston Comets. He assesses the probability of drawing a large 
crowd to be 0.9 should the team wins tonight. What is the probability that the team wins tonight 
and that there will be a large crowd at tomorrow’s game? 
 
Problem 2. Lost Soldier 
The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 20 
Bedouin tribesmen and 25 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 35 
Bedouins  and  15  Farima.  A  lost  Israeli  soldier,  accidentally  separated  from  his  army  unit,  is 
wandering through the desert and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no idea 
which oasis he has found, but the first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What is the 
probability that he wandered into Abu Ilan? What is the probability that he is in El Kamin? 
 
Problem 3. Market Researchers Inc. 
Market Researchers Inc. has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a new 
product  will  be  good  or  poor.  In  similar  studies  performed  in  the  past,  whenever  the  market 
actually was good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 80% of the time. 
On  the  other  hand,  whenever  the  market  actually  was  poor,  the  market  study  incorrectly 
predicted it would be good 25% of the time. Before the study is performed, it is believed there is 
a 75% chance the market will be good. When Market Researchers, Inc. performs the study for 
this product, the results predict the market will be good. Given the results of this study, what is 
the probability that the market actually will be good? 
 
Problem 4. Catch A Bus 
Jenny is finishing today’s study and she is now in the main library. To go home, she needs to go 
to a bus stop and take the No.12 bus. She knows that the bus arrives at the stop exactly every 15 
minutes. The last bus arrived and left at 5:00pm and now is 5:05pm. Due to waiting for elevators, 
the  time  it  takes  to  walk  from  the  library  to  the  bus  stop  is  a  random  variable  that  follows  a 
Normal distribution with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of 2 minutes.  
(You may need the Standard Normal Table attached to this assignment sheet.) 
(a) If Jenny leaves right now, what’s probability that she can catch the bus on 5:15pm? 
(b) If Jenny leaves on 5:10pm, what’s the probability that she can catch the bus on 5:15pm? 
(c) If Jenny leaves on 5:11pm, what’s the probability that she will miss the bus on 5:15pm? 
 
 
 
Problem 5. Armstrong Faber 
Armstrong Faber produces a standard number‐two pencil called Ultra‐Lite. The demand 
for Ultra‐Lite has been fairly stable over the past 6 years. On average, Armstrong Faber 
has  sold  455,000  pencils  each  year.  Furthermore,  80%  of  the  time  sales  have  been  between 
450,000 and 460,000 pencils. It is  expected that the sales follow a normal distribution with a 
mean of 455,000 pencils. Estimate the standard deviation of this distribution. (You may need the 
Standard Normal Table attached to this assignment sheet.) 
 
Problem 6. Lisa's Hair Salon 
Customers arrive at Lisa’s Hair Salon during a day in any particular business hour according to a 
Poisson distribution with a rate of 𝜆  = 2 per hour. Now the salon has two barbers who can each 
service a customer in exactly 30 minutes. Suppose a customer, Amy, arrives at 2:00pm and finds 
both barbers idle. 
(a) What is the probability that we will observe customers waiting before 2:30pm? 
(b) What is the probability that Amy observes the next customer (i.e. the customer after 
her) arrival before 2:15pm? 
(c) What is the probability that Amy will find the shop empty when she leaves? 
 
 
 

   
 

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