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Concept Check: Prob & Stat For Comp Sci 2. Bayes' Rule and Friends Whalen

This document contains a lesson on Bayes' rule and conditional probability, along with example problems to solve. It begins with concept review questions about conditional probability and Bayes' rule. Several guided example problems are then presented applying conditional probability and Bayes' rule to situations involving probabilities of events. Finally, several unguided practice problems are provided for additional practice with these concepts.

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63 views

Concept Check: Prob & Stat For Comp Sci 2. Bayes' Rule and Friends Whalen

This document contains a lesson on Bayes' rule and conditional probability, along with example problems to solve. It begins with concept review questions about conditional probability and Bayes' rule. Several guided example problems are then presented applying conditional probability and Bayes' rule to situations involving probabilities of events. Finally, several unguided practice problems are provided for additional practice with these concepts.

Uploaded by

Amish
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 2.

BAYES’ RULE and FRIENDS Whalen

“If there’s no struggle, there’s no progress.”


—Frederick Douglass

Review Lesson 2, then complete the following problems. For best results, work the problems on your
own first, then check your answers. Problems marked with a + are a little harder than the others. The
problems are designed to help you review the current concepts and get ready for the next ones.

Concept Check
1. What makes a probability of an event “conditional”?
2. We want the chance that A will happen, assuming that B happens. This equals what?
3. What is the “total” probability of an event? How do we find it?
4. True or False: in both the conditional probability formula and Bayes’ rule, we divide by the
probability of what is given (or assumed).
5. If you believe something is impossible and assign a prior probability of 0 to it, what happens if
Bayes’ rule is applied?
6. If you believe something is certain and assign a prior probability of 1 to it, what happens if
Bayes’ rule is applied?

Guided Problems

1. For a certain population, the chance someone will have a pet dog is 64%. The chance someone
will have a pet cat is 42%. The chance someone will have both a pet dog and a pet cat is 28%.
Use the conditional probability formula (division rule) to answer the following questions. (a) If
someone has a pet dog, what are the chances he has a pet cat? (b) If someone has a pet cat,
what are the chances he has a pet dog? (c) True or false: having a dog and having a cat are
independent events for this population.

2. A standard deck of 52 cards is well-shuffled. Two cards are drawn in order without
replacement. Use the law of total probability to find the chances the second card will be a king,
regardless of what the first card was.

3. Two urns are filled with marbles. The first urn has 2 red and 8 blue marbles. The second urn has
18 red and 6 blue marbles. An urn is randomly selected and a marble is drawn. (a) Find the total
probability of drawing a red marble. (b) Use Bayes’ rule to find the chance that you drew from
the second urn, if you draw a red marble. (c) + This experiment involves 34 marbles and 20 of
them are red. Why isn’t the total probability of drawing a red marble simply 20/34?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 2. BAYES’ RULE and FRIENDS Whalen

4. Refrigerators are distributed from four factories, as follows:


Factory A Factory B Factory C Factory D
40% 26% 20% 14%

The chance of a damaged refrigerator being shipped from each factory is


Factory A Factory B Factory C Factory D
5% 3% 2% 1%

(a) Use the law of total probability to find the chance that a damaged refrigerator is shipped.
(b) If a refrigerator arrives damaged, find the chance it came from Factory A.
(c) Find the chance the damaged refrigerator came from each of the other factories. Are these
chances related in any way?

5. Six identical urns are filled with marbles. The first urn has 99 blue marbles and 1 red marble.
The second and third urns each have 6 blue marbles and 4 red marbles. The fourth, fifth, and
sixth urns each have 1 blue marble and 1 red marble in each. (a) If we select an urn randomly
and draw a marble, what is the probability it will be red (regardless of which urn we picked)? (b)
It so happens that we draw a red marble. Use Bayes’ rule to find the chance that we drew from
each type of urn. (c) If we dump all the marbles into one urn and draw a marble, what is the
probability it will be red? Should this be the same as the probability in part (a)?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 2. BAYES’ RULE and FRIENDS Whalen

Unguided Problems
1. It is believed that there is cheating at 10% of the tables in a certain casino. To determine which
tables, the supervisors have singled out a customer (labeled X) involved in the cheating. If there
is cheating at a table, then X has an 80% chance to win. If there is no cheating, there is only a
2% chance to win. Now, X wins at the next table. What are the chances there is cheating at that
table?

2. There are two coins—one is fair, one has heads on both sides. You choose a coin at random,
toss it, and it comes up heads. What is the probability you tossed the two-headed coin?

3. There are two dice—one is fair, and one is “loaded.” The loaded die has a 1/4 chance of giving
an ace. The remaining sides are equally likely. You choose a die at random, roll it, and get an
ace. What are the chances you rolled the loaded die? Recall an “ace” is a one.

4. + In this game, you roll a blue die and a red die, then draw a ticket from a box that is either a
winning or a losing ticket. Some boxes give you better chances to win than others. If the blue
die lands on five, but not the red, then you have a 40% chance to win. If the red die lands on
five, but not the blue, then you have a 50% chance to win. If both dice land on five, then you
have a 90% chance to win. If neither die lands on five, then you have only a 2% chance to win.
What are the chances that you will win?

5. There is a 5% chance a computer is infected with a certain virus. When a computer is infected, a
certain program has a 90% chance to crash. When not infected, the program still has an 8%
chance to crash. If the program crashes, what is the probability the computer is infected with
the virus?

6. Suppose about 75% of someone’s PC game library is available through Steam and about 45% is
available through GOG (good old games). Moreover, 20% of their library is available through
both. (a) If one of their games is available through Steam, what are the chances it is also
available through GOG? (b) If one of their games is available through GOG, what are the
chances it is also available through Steam?

7. + A program consists of two modules. The first contains an error with probability 0.20. The
second contains an error with probability 0.40, independently of the first.

An error in the first module, and not the second, causes the program to crash with
probability 0.50.
An error in the second module, and not the first, causes the program to crash with
probability 0.80.
An error in both causes the program to crash with a probability of 0.90.
If neither modules have an error, then the program does not crash.

The program crashed. What is the probability that both modules contain an error?

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