Electric Power System Quality Problems Analysis & Strategic Troubleshooting

Module
05
Distribution System
Reliability

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Distribution System Reliability

R.1 Introduction to System Reliability

R.1.1 What Does Reliability Mean to Customers?

Service reliability along with price are the two primary means by
which most customers judge a utility. However, most customers seldom, if
ever, think about. reliability of electric service , if electricity is there at an
acceptable price when they want it, they probably don't give a second
thought to how much their lives are influenced by it. However, if customers
do think about service reliability, it is most likely because they are
dissatisfied with it. As a result , the utility can suffer severe image problems
which can even influence the outcome of rate cases.

Power system service reliability can be thought of in macro terms

when applied to generation or transmission and sometimes substations, and
in micro terms when applied to feeders, branches, laterals, line sections,
individual customers and, again, sometimes substations. Distribution service
reliability (or the absence of it) is almost always more evident to customers
than is either generation or transmission reliability. Because of the radial
design of most distribution systems and the fact that, unlike transmission
systems, distribution systems rarely have built-in redundancy, a failure of a
distribution component usually results in customer interruptions. On most
electric systems, well over 90% of the customer interruptions result from
distribution system failures. Therefore, most utilities define distribution
service reliability in terms of interruption frequency and duration as
experienced by customers .

R.1.2 What Does Reliability Mean To The Utility ?

To a utility, service reliability is an important measure of performance.
Revenue can be lost if customers move to another system because service
reliability does not match their expectations. Utility executives devote much
of their lives to trying to figure how to improve the financial and operating
performance of their companies. Losing customers is not a good way to
remain in business and is bound to harm a utility’s financial position. Most
utilities have "Corporate Communication" departments to monitor how their
utilities are viewed by customers, regulators and the financial community.

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R.1.3 What Does Reliability Mean to Distribution

Planners?
To most distribution planners service reliability means simply having
no outages resulting from equipment failures or protective devices mis-
operating. To achieve this, the distribution planner must design the most
efficient and cost effective electrical system possible while minimizing
outages. As previously stated, reducing outages represents revenues to the
utility. If planners are overly focused on keeping costs low, outage length
and frequency will usually increase. Customers will become dissatisfied
which could lead to public utility commission intervention. On the other
hand, if a solution is too costly, earnings may be reduced disproportionately
for the customer benefits derived. Therefore, the distribution planner must be
familiar with economic analysis techniques to balance the solution of the
problem with the associated costs.

R.1.4 Reliability Cost Study

The system reliability is thus represented and estimated by numerous
terms and indices as will be detailed . As the system reliability increase , the
representing indices increase (towards 1 ) and as it decreases, the indices
decease (towards 0 ) To increase the system reliability , it is obvious that the
costs of system installations will increase , while the costs of interruption
(e.g loss of benefits from unserved energy , penalties to consumers , … etc)
will decrease , Fig.(R.1) . The total cost curve in figure shows a minimum
value indicating the optimum reliability index . The nearer this index to unity
the most preferable to both the customer and the utility .

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Figure (R.1) cost vs. system reliability , Reliability optimization

R.2 Basic Definitions

Most of the following definitions of terms for reporting and analyzing
outages of electrical distribution facilities and interruptions are taken from
Ref.1 and included here by permission of the Institute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers. Inc.

Outage. Describes the state of a component when it is not available to

perform its intended function due to some event directly associated with that
component. An outage may or may not cause an interruption of service to
consumers depending on system configuration.

Forced outage. An outage caused by emergency conditions directly

associated with a component that require the component to be taken out of
service immediately, either automatically or as soon as switching operations
can be performed, or an outage caused by improper operation of equipment
or human error.

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Scheduled outage. An outage that results when a component is

deliberately taken out of service at a selected time, usually for purposes of
construction. preventive maintenance, or repair. The key test to determine if
an outage should he classified as forced or scheduled is as follows. If it is
possible to defer the outage when such deferment is desirable, the outage is a
scheduled outage; other. wise, the outage is a forced outage. Deferring an
outage may be desirable, for example, to prevent overload of facilities or an
interruption of service to consumers.

Partial outage. "Describes a component state where the capacity of

the component to perform its function is reduced but not completely
eliminated" .

Transient forced outage. A component outage whose cause is

immediately self- clearing so that the affected component can be restored to
service either automatically or as soon as a switch or circuit breaker can be.
reclosed or a fuse replaced. An example of a transient forced outage is a
lightning flashover which does not permanently disable the flashed
component.

Persistent forced outage. A Component outage whose cause is not

immediately self-clearing but must be corrected by eliminating the hazard or
by repairing or replacing the affected component before it can be returned to
service. An example of a persistent forced outage is a lightning flashover
which shatters an insulator, thereby disabling the component until repair or
replacement can be made.

Interruption. The loss of service to one or more consumers or other

facilities and is the result of one or more component outages, depending on
system configuration.

Forced interruption. An interruption caused by a forced outage.

Scheduled interruption. An interruption caused by a scheduled outage.

Momentary interruption. It has a duration limited to the period

required to restore service by automatic or supervisor-controlled switching
operations or by manual switching at locations where an operator is
immediately available. Such switching operations arc typically completed in
a few minutes.

Temporary interruption. "It has a duration limited to the period

required to restore service by manual switching .at locations where an

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operator is not immediately available. Such switching operations are

typically completed within 1-2 hours" [2] .

Sustained interruption. “It is any interruption not classified as

momentary or temporary"

At the present time, there are no industry wide standard outage

reporting procedures. More or less, each electric utility company has its own
standards for each type of customer and its own methods of outage reporting
and compilation of statistics. A unified scheme for the reporting of outages
and the computation of reliability indices would be very useful but is not
general1y practical due to the differences in service areas, load
characteristics, number of customers, and expected service quality .

System interruption frequency index. "The average number of

interruptions per customer served per time unit. It is estimated by’ dividing
the accumulated number of customer interruptions in a year by the number
of customers served" .

Customer interruption index. "The average number of interruptions

experienced per customer affected per time unit. It is estimated by dividing
the number of customer interceptions observed in a year by the number if
customers affected" . [3] .

Load interruption index. "The average k VA of connected load

interrupted per unit time per unit of connected load served. It is formed by
dividing the annual load interruption by the connected load" . [3]

Customer curtailment index. "The KVA-minutes of connected load

interrupted per affected customer. per year. It is the ratio of the total the
total annual curtailment the number of customers affected per year " . [3]

Customer interruption duration index . "The interruption duration for

customers interrupted during specific time period. It is determined by
dividing the sum of all customer-sustained interruption durations during the
specified period by the number of sustained customer Interruptions during
that period" .

According to an IEEE committee report, the following basic

information should be included in an equipment outage report:

1. Type. design, manufacturer, and other descriptions for classification

purposes

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2. Date of installation. location on system. length in the case of a line

3. Mode of failure (short-circuit. false operation. etc.)
4. Cause of failure (lightning, tree, etc.)
5. Times (both out of service and back in service, rather than outage
duration alone), date, meteorological conditions when the failure
occurred
6. Type of outage, forced or scheduled, transient or permanent

Furthermore, the committee has suggested that the total number of

similar components in service should also be reported in order to determine
outage rate per component per service year. It is also suggested that every
component failure, regardless of service interruption i.e., whether it caused a
service interruption to a customer or not, should be reported in order to
determine component failure rates properly [4] Failure reports provide very
valuable information for preventive maintenance programs and equipment
replacements.

There are various types of probabilistic modeling of components to

predict component-failure rates which include (1) fitting a modified time-
varying weibull distribution to component-failure cases and (2) component
survival rate studies. However, in general, there may be some differences
between the predicted failure rates and observed failure rates due to the
following factors :

1. Definition of failure
2. Actual environment compared with prediction environment
3. Maintainability, support, testing equipment. and special personnel
4. Composition of components and component-failure rates assumed in
making the prediction
5. Manufacturing processes including inspection and quality control
6. Distributions of times to failure
7. Independence of component failures

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Table R-1 Classification of generic and specific

causes of outages

Weather Miscellaneous System components System operation

Blizzard/snow Airplane/helicopter Electric and mechanical: System conditions:
Cold Animal/bird, snake Fuel supply Stability
Flood Vehicle: Generating unit failure High/low voltage
Heat Automobile/truck Transformer failure High/low frequency
Hurricane Crane Switchgear failure Line overload/transformer
Ice Dig-in Conductor failure overload
Lightning Fire/explosion Tower, pole attachment Unbalanced load
Rain Sabotage/vandalism Insulation failure: Neighboring power system
Tornado Tree Transmission line Public appeal:
Wind - Unknown Substation Commercial and
Other Other Surge arrestor industrial
Cable failure All customers
Voltage control Voltage reduction:
equipment: 0-2% voltage reduction
Voltage regulator Greater than 2-8 voltage
Automatic tap changer reduction
Capacitor Rotating blackout
Reactor Utility personnel:
Protection and control: System operator error
Relay failure Power plant operator error
Communication signal Field operator error
error Maintenance error
Supervisory control Other
error

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Figure R.2 Classification of reported outage events in the National Electric

Reliability Study for the period July 1970 to June 1979: (a) types of events, (b)
generic subsystems, and (c) generic causes.

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Figure R.2 A reliability planning procedure.

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R.5 Basic Reliability Concepts , Principles And

Mathematics :

R.5.1 Hierarchical Levels For Power System

Reliability Study
In the flow of events sense, and also in the flow of power sense, there
is a logic to the patterns which take place in a power system.

 Generation
 Transmission GTDU
 Distribution pattern
 Utilization

The same patterns apply in reliability analysis, and these patterns have
been given names.

a) When the reliability analysis includes only generation, it is

called Hierarchical Level 1 (HL1) .

b) When the reliability analysis includes generation and

transmission, it is called composite system reliability and also
Hierarchical Level 2 (HL2).

c) When the reliability analysis includes generation, transmission,

and distribution, it is called Hierarchical Level 3 (HL3).

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R.5.2 Attributes of Reliability

For many years, the term reliability was the only one which was used
to specify the extent to which a system could be relied upon. Reliability is a
general term encompassing all the measures of the ability of a system,
generally given as numerical indices, to behave in a reliable and dependable
manner within acceptable standards. However, a power system has two
characteristics which are peculiar to it. These are shown in Figure R.4 .

An active power balance,

CHARACTERISTIC 1 and a reactive power
balance, must be maintained
in the steady state.

The rotating masses, which

contain significant amounts
of stored energy, must not
CHARACTERISTIC
lose2synchronism during
disturbances

Figure R.4 Characteristics of the Power System

Most systems in the world do not have these characteristics. Digital

systems do not have these characteristics, but power systems do. As a result,
it is not sufficient to talk about the reliability of a power system, but instead
we must talk about two attributes of reliability. These are adequacy and
security.

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Adequacy is a measure of the ability of the power

system to supply the electric power and energy
requirements of the customers within component
ratings and voltage limits, taking account of
Adequacy planned and unplanned outages of system
components. Adequacy measures the capability of
the power system to supply the load in all the
steady states in which the power system may exist.
Adequacy, for HL1, means seeing if an active power balance can
be achieved. Adequacy, for HL2, means looking at the power system in
the steady state to see if all loads can be supplied, if all transmission
components are within flow limits, and if all buses are within voltage
limits. The load
flow is the basic Security is a measure of the electric power system
study which is to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric
carried out in short circuits or unanticipated losses of system
the steady state. components (together with consideration of
operating constraints).

SECURITY

Security, for HL1, is generally not a meaningful term. Security, for

HL2, means taking the power system in each of the steady states for which
an adequacy evaluation has been carried out, and evaluating how
successfully and securely it might have got to that state, how successfully
and securely it might move to another state, and how successfully it might
withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits.

i.e. it relates to transition of the system from adequate state to another

( including contingency states ) . One has to examine load flow , stability of
the system,… to verily .

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R.5.3 States Of A Power System

One Combination of

A STATE OF THE
POWER
SYSTEM Available Available One Load
Generators Transmission Level
Lines

For the present, we are going to simply look at the production or

establishment of the states.

R.5.3.1 HL1 States

Figure R.5 is used to illustrate the states of a generation only power
system (HL1). The generation only power system has three generators, each
of which can exist in an "on" or an of condition ( that is each may be
available, or unavailable.)

Figure R.5 HL Generation-Only System

The states of the HL1 power system are listed, or enumerated, in Table R.2

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Table R.2 State of the HL1 System

G1 G2 G3 Available Load Level

capacity
1 1 1 200 60
1 1 0 180 60
1 0 1 120 60
1 0 0 100 60
0 1 1 100 60
0 1 0 80 60
0 0 1 20 60
0 0 0 0 60
1 1 1 200 120
1 1 0 180 120
1 0 1 120 120
1 0 0 100 120
0 1 1 100 120
0 1 0 80 120
0 0 1 20 120
0 0 0 0 120
1 1 1 200 100
1 1 0 180 100
1 0 1 120 100
1 0 0 100 100
0 1 1 100 100
0 1 0 80 100
0 0 1 20 100
0 0 0 0 100
1 1 1 200 80
1 1 0 180 80
1 0 1 120 80
1 0 0 100 80
0 1 1 100 80
0 1 0 80 80
0 0 1 20 80
0 0 0 0 80

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R.5.3.2 HL2 States

To illustrate the HL2 states, we are going to take a 2-generator, 4-line
2-load power system which appears in the technical literature. It is shown in
Figure R.6

Figure R.6 HL2 Generation and Transmission System

As before it is possible to list, or enumerate, all of the states in which

the generators and transmission lines can exist. It should be noted that this is
done here for only one load level on the system. These states must also be
listed for each of the other load levels which might exist on the system. The
states for this power system are shown in Table R.3.

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Table R.3 States for the HL2 System

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For the present, we are not going to proceed beyond the establishment
of the states for the HL1 and HL2 systems. However, it is clear from a casual
observation of :

 Table R.2 for HL1

 Table R.3 for HL2

that there are a number of generator states, and generator and

transmission states respectively, which are not adequate to meet the specified
load’ level. This may be important if the system is likely to exist in any one
of the inadequate states, especially for an extended period of time.

R.6 Reliability Definition Methodogies

Two methods have been in common use to define and/or verify system
reliability, these are namely ,

 Deterministic Techniques .

 Probabilistic Techniques .

R.6.1 Deterministic Techniques

These have been commonly adopted up to the middle of the 20th
century (up to30th and 40th ). According to the deterministic techniques ; the
following procedures have been followed .

Reserve margin

A reserve percentage of the system components is chosen based on

experience and performance precision to stand reserve for the system to
guarantee its capability (adequacy) to feed the loads

e.g. Egypt 25%

Japan 9%

Western Europe 15%

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Selected case coterie

A selected element is selected and supposed for forced outage , then,
the network is studied for testing the extent of its capability (adequacy ) to
feed the loads . This procedure is more applicable for transmission lines .

R.6.2 Probabilistic Techniques

Two common methods are followed to define the capability ,
availability and reliability to feed the load levels . these methods are
namely ;

 State Enumeration

 Monte – Carlo Simulation

State Enumeration
Again , if we have the following generation system :

State Enumeration
1 = unit available
0 = unit unavailable
G1 G2 G3 Available Adequacy
Generation
(MW)
1 1 1 190 √
1 1 0 130 √
1 0 1 90 X
0 1 1 160 √
1 0 0 30 X
0 1 0 100 √
0 0 1 60 X
0 0 0 0 X

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No of states for 3 units = 23= 8 No of states for 4 units= 24=16

Mante Carlo Simulation

If it is passable to define , lased on the historical data , the probalrlity of
existence (availability) of the units of a system , the data can be tabulated as the available
power , by comparison between the load and generation , the system adequacy is defined
each hour .

Hour Availabl Load Adequac

No. G1 G2 G3 e (MW) y
Power
(MW)
Hr#1 √ √ √ √
3 √ √ X √
. X √ √ √
. √ X X X
. . . . .
n X √
.
√ √
. . . .
. . .
. . .
. . . .
Hr# 8760 √ √ X √

One main disadvantage of this procedure is the large amount of data

required to be gathered historically , experimentally or by calculation to
define precisely and in advance the unit availability .

R.7 Practical Approach For Power System

Reliability Studies ( To Calculate The Reliability
Indices )

R.7.1 Statistics
People collect statistics. They are the record of how some person, or
some component, or some system, behaves. Statistics as a process is
concerned with scientific methods for collecting, organizing, summarizing,
presenting and analyzing data.

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A classical look at statistics would include variables and graphs,

frequency distributions, mean, median, standard deviation, and single or
multiple regression. For the examination of power system reliability, the
major emphasis will be on frequency, duration, and cost of events.

Relative to the reliability of a power system, we are going to look at

three aspects of statistics.

a) Statistics as an Input
This considers the statistics of the individual components of the power
system. The primary components considered were generators, transformers
and transmission lines, although more recently statistics are also being
collected on essentially all power system components.

b) Statistics as an Output
This considers the entire system performance. As shown later,
Statistics are collected on the entire power system which allows definition of
approximately forty system reliability indices .

c) Statistics which Value the Worth of Reliability to Customers

These consider the cost of outages to customers. This is a relatively
new area, but one which will become very important in the future .

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Figure R.7 Statistical Processes

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This can be briefed in the following schemes :

Statistics

As an input (availability of the unit )

As an output (probabilistic reliability indices )

Input Probabilistic Reliability

Techniques
Unit data indices

(power availability ,…)

R.7.1 Statistics as an Input

R.7.1.1 Introduction
If we kept track of the statistics of the performance of a generator, or a
transmission line, over time, we would find that it was available for service
during some periods of time and that it also was unavailable for service
during other periods of time. In other words it was being operated, and after
awhile it failed. Then during some time it was being repaired, and on
completion of the repairs it went back in service. This is called the failure -
repair cycle (although a much better term would probably be the operating
and repair cycle . )

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R.7.1.2 Statistics in the Micro

The failure-repair cycle is shown in Figure R.8

Figure R.8 Failure - Repair Cycle

Over the course of time, a jargon has been developed about the
failure-repair cycle which is possibly confusing. For the initial cycle:

m1 is called the time to failure (TTF)

which means
The time a unit operates before it breaks down.
or
It is the "up" time of the unit.
r1 is called the time to repair (TTR)
which means
The time that it is down for repairs
before being able to be put back in service
or

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It is the “down” time of the unit.

For cycle two there is an m2 – r2 for cycle three there is an m3 – r3 and
for cycle four there is an m4 – r4 .

From very fundamental notions, it is possible to find the

characteristics of an average cycle.

The average of the time to failure values is:

This is also called the mean time to failure, or MTTF. Clearly it is the
average operating time of a unit before it fails, and might be more
appropriately called the mean operating time (MOT.)

The average of the time to repair values is:

This is also called the mean time to repair, or MTTR. Clearly it is the
average time that it takes to carry out repairs on a unit before it can be put
back in service, and might be more appropriately be called the mean repair
time (MRT.)

Figure R.9 shows a representation of an average cycle.

Figure R.8 An Average Cycle

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The time to failure (or operating time) and the time to repair (or repair
time) make up the period for one cycle. For our figure, the period for each of
the four cycles is:

Clearly we can get an average period T from these four values.

From the basic notion of frequency, it is easy to write:

There are two more terms which appear in the literature, and which
are used in the Canadian Electrical Association data collection. These are
failure rate and repair rate.

If the MYTF (or Mean Operating Time) of a unit is 0.10 years, then
the rate at which failures occur is 1/0.10 or 10 failure occurrences per year.
Generally, we can write that the failure rate is :

If the MTTR (or Mean Repair Time) of a unit is 0.0025 years, then the
rate at which repairs can be effected is 1/0.0025 or 400 repair occurrences
per year. Generally, we can write that the repair rate is:

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We have entitled this present section as Statistics in the Micro because

we have defined the statistics of one cycle, which is the smallest event that
one could look at. We have defined the average time of operation before
failure, the average time of repair before operation can begin again, and the
average time of one cycle. At the same time we have defined the failure rate
(or frequency), the repair rate (or frequency), and the rate (or frequency) of
cycling.

Methodologies which make use of statistics in the micro are called

Frequency and Duration Methods. The statistics in the micro are necessary if
we are doing sequential studies, because if we determine that a unit is on
repair in a certain hour then in sequential studies it must stay on repair until
the MTTR is finished.

Example

Suppose that the collection of statistics for a generator showed that:

m1 = 0.095 years (or 832.2 hours) until the first failure

m2 = 0.110 years (or 963.6 hours) until the second failure

m3 = 0.105 years (or 919.8 hours) until the third failure

m4 = 0.090 years (or 788.4 hours) until the fourth failure

r1 = 0.00255 years (or 22.34 hours) to do the first repair

r2 = 0.00235 years (or 20.59 hours) to do the second repair

r3 = 0.00295 years (or 25.84 hours) to do the third repair

r4 = 0.00215 years (or 18.83 hours) to do the third repair.

A warning should be mentioned at this point. If we add up all the

hours in the above eight time segments, they total to 3591.6 hours which is
much less than the 8760 hours in a year. The fact that many of the
parameters which have been developed have units such as Occurrences/yeas

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does not mean that we have to collect statistics for a year. We can collect
statistics for any time period and the units will come out automatically.

a) Mean time to failure.

b) Mean time to repair.

c) Period of one failure-repair cycle.

d) Frequency of the failure-repair cycle.

e) Failure rare.

f) Repair rate.

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R.7.1.3 Statistics in the Macro

We begin again with the failure-repair cycle shown already in Figure R.9
and repeated here.

Figure R.9 Failure-Repair Cycle Over Time

Availability
The availability is thus the percentage of time that the unit is
available . A is called the availability rate and it is expressed either a decimal
or a percentage

i.e the availability rate is the cycle frequency divided by the failure
rate .

Unavailability

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The unavailability is thus the percent of time that the unit is unavailable and
the unavailability rate is expressed either a decimal or as a percentage .

More often U is called the Forced Outage Rate (FOR) Then,

as = failure rate ( occurrence/year) =

Thus

and

Note 1:

We are going to summarize the expressions from this section to relate

the macro and the micro.

These expressions clearly relate the statistics of the macro (on the Left
Hand Side) with the statistics of the micro (on the Right Hand Side.)

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Note 2:

We are going to repeat two expressions

Just by trying a few values of and it is clear that there is an

infinite number of and pairs which will give always the same one value
for A and the same other value for U. In other words, if we know and
we can find unique values for A and U. However, if we know A and U we
cannot find unique values for and .
KNOWING CAN FIND

A.U

KNOWING CANNOTFIND

A,U

This is because A+U=1 always i.e they are dependent and cannot load to
solve two equations . In contract

In conclusion , data has to be available about the units , the most important
of which are

= repair rate occ / year

= failure rate occ / year

Availability =

Unavailability =

Example :

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At the CIGRE Montreal Symposium on Electric Power Systems Reliability

on Sept. 16-18, 1991, Paper 5-04 was presented entitled "Composite
Reliability Assessment Studies of the Greek Interconnected Power Systems".
The following table of Generating Unit Data is taken from that paper .

Example I for Station 1 Unit 1

(a) Find the time which this unit will operate before failing.

(b) Find the time that it takes to repair this unit once it has failed.

(c) Find the availability of this unit.

A=

(d) Find the unavailability of this unit.

U = FOR =

Example 2 for Station VI Unit 14

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This unit is so different that it is worthwhile repeating the calculations

(a) Find the time which this unit will operate before failing.

(b) Find the time which it takes to repair this unit once it has failed.

(c) Find the availability of this unit.

(d) Find the unavailability of this unit.

Before leaving this section, we need, to add one final note. The availability
A, and the unavailability U, are very well known terms. They should be
recognized by their name and significances because in textbooks, and later
on in these notes, many different symbols such as P,Q and PA,PU are in place
A and U .

R.7.2 Statistics As An Output

Calculations Of The Reliability Indices

More than 35 indices can be recognized for power system reliability
measuring . The most important of which :

Index Area

Loss of load index probability (LOLP) Gen. &transm.

Loss of load expectation (LOLE) = LOLP * 8760 h / year ,,

Expected energy not served (EENS) ,,

System minutes (SM) ,,

System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) Distribution

Customer average interruption frequency index (CAIFI) ,,

System average interruption duration index (SAIDI) ,,

Customer average Interruption duration index (CAIDI) ,,

As for as distribution systems are concerned , the indices SAIFI,

CAIFI, SAIDI, and CAIDI are important . To calculate these for a

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distribution system , the failure rate and r, the average of the time to
repair , of each element are determined . Then , the equivalent
for the group of elements connected in series and / or parallel are calculated
according to the rules and methodology deserved in the next section . From
these , the reliability system indices are calculated .

R.7.3 Reliability Study for Distribution System

R.7.3.1 Failure Mode And Effect Analysis

Reference to the network shown in Fig. ( R.10 ) , where the load is fed
from the supply via five elements connected in series and/or parallel and
whose for each element are renown then the parallel and following
procedure is followed .

1 2

Supply Load

5 5 , r5

3 , r3 4 , r4
3 4

Fig. (R. 10) A system model

a) Reliability of series and parallel systems

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1- Series elements

1 , r1 2 , r2
Supply Load

2- Parallel elements

1 , r1
Supply Load

2 , r2

provided that the elements or components are fully redundant .

b) Cut Sets
Reference to Fig. (R.10) , the group of elements that can cause supply
interruption to the load point in case of its outage . In the Fig. these are :

(1,3) , (1,3,5) , (2,4) , (2,4,5) , (1,5,4) , (2,5,3) , (1,2,3,4) , (1,2,3,4,5) .

These are called cut sets .

C) Minimal Cut Sets

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All the above sets are cut sets but the minimal cut set is defined as the
cut set which does not include a subset as cut set , for example :

(1,3,5) and (1,3) are cut sets , but (1,3) is a minimal cut set while
(1,3,5) is not a minimal cut set as it includes a cut set (1.3) .

Thus , in the above Fig. , (1,3) (2,4) , (1,5,4) and (2,5,3) are the
minimal cut sets .

d) For The Minimal Cut Sets

In the minimal cut set (1.3) the outage of 1,3 together will lead to
supply interruption and their equivalent and r are obstained as the two
elements in parallel .

Also , the outage of (1,5,3) together is equivalent to three elements in

parallel as far as series and parallel is meant in reliability analysis and not
circuit analysis , as the outage of the three elements is necessary For power
supply interruption similar to the outage of the three parallel circuits of a
transmission line .

e)Supply Interruption In Cases Of Series And Parallel

Combinations
1
To interrupt supply to the load , outage
Supply Load
of both (A) AND (2) is necessary
2

To interrupt supply to the load , outage of (1) OR (2) causes interruption .

Supply Load
1 2

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R.7.3.2 Calculation OF A Simple Distribution System

Reliability Equivalent and r
For example consider the system of Fig. (R.10 ) ,

1. obtain the cut sets

2. obtain the minimal cut sets which are (1,3) , (2,4) , (1,4,5) and (2,3,5)

3. obtain for each minimal cut set as the elements of each set are
connected in parallel .

1 2 1 2
Source
Load
4 3
3 4
5 5

1, 3 2, 4 1, 4 ,5 2 ,3,5

r1, 3 r2 , 4 r1, 4 ,5 r2 , 3,5

4. As the supply to the load will be interrupted if any one of these sets is
interrupted , i.e (1,3) OR (2,4) OR (1,4,5) OR (2,3,5) , then the
equivalent and req of the system is calculated as the of
the minimal cut sets are connected in series (from the reliability point
of view ) . i.e.

eq & Req

S L

Supply x Load
1, 3 2, 4 1, 4 , 5  2 , 3, 5
r1, 3 r2 , 4 r1.4.5 r2.3.5

In series , calculate

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Fig . (R. 11)

R.7.4 Calculation OF The Distribution System

Reliability Indices
To calculate the reliability indices at the load point L in Fig. (R.11 ) ,
one calculates and these are sufficient to indicate the
reliability level at this point .

i=1 *
Ni = N1
*i=n
Ni = Nn

i=2

Ni =N2 *

*
*

In a large power system , where there are many points Li , each has a
number of connected consumers Ni , then for the n points of the system , the
point Li has Ni consumers , the equivalent failure rate at the point and ri
the equivalent mean time to repair = thus ; the reliability indices are
defined and calculated as follows :-

Service Reliability Index Definitions And Calculations

The following indices, all or in-part, have been previously defined by
the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers IEEE [ 3.8 , 3.7 ]
Canadian Electric Association (CEA) [5] Edison Electric Institute (EEI), [7]
or Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) [3] .These indices are averages
computed monthly, seasonally or yearly, of interruption frequency or
duration. Although some of the indices are expressed on a system basis. they

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can be applied to voltage levels, substations, weather conditions, or any

category which will help explain the distribution performance.

1) System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) . The average

number of times that a system customer is interrupted during a given time
period .

2) System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) The average

interruption duration per customer served.

3) Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (CAIFI) The average

number of interruptions per customer interrupted during a given time period.
The customers affected are counted only once, regardless of the number of
interruptions that each may have experienced during a given period.

4) Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI). The average

interruption duration for those customers interrupted during a given time
period.

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5) Average System Availability Index (ASAI) The sum of all of the

customer -hours that service was available per year divided by the number of
customer-hours that service was demanded. Customer-hours demanded are
determined as the twelve-month average number of customers served times
8760 hours. This value is sometimes known at the "service reliability
index ."

6) Average System Unavailability Index (ASUI) The sum of all the

customer-hours that service was NOT available per year divided by the
number of customer-hours that service was demanded.

7) Average Load Interruption Index (ALII) The average KVA of load

interrupted per year per KVA of connected load.

8) Average System Curtailment Index (ASCI) .The KVA-hours of load

curtailed per customer served.

9) Average Customer Curtailment Index (ACII). The total KVA-hours of

load curtailed per affected customer per year.

If a utility maintains a comprehensive distribution system model and

interruption report databases, that utility will have a much greater likelihood
of accurate service reliability indices than a utility that bases its service
reliability indices on estimates and assumptions.

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Practices regarding consideration of monetary interruptions vary

widely. Many utilities do not consider planned interruptions at all in
computing their service reliability indices nor do some even record them.
However, problems with momentary interruptions are on the increase.
Customers often attribute the malfunction of electronic equipment to utility
interruptions even though they may last only a few cycles to a few tens of
seconds. This fact suggests that utilities should pay more attention to
mitigating momentary interruptions. The time that a momentary interruption
occurred may occasionally be determined from a substation recorder.
However. the only record that most momentary interruptions leave is a
counter reading. Trying to associate counter readings with the time and
location of a specific customer problem is nearly impossible.

One utility in the northeast has been monitoring momentary

interruptions for approximately four years. The major conclusions are:

1. The number and rate of events varies widely between locations.

2. The major cause of interruptions were attributed to equipment failures,

trees. and animal/birds.

3. On the monitored sections of three phase distribution, momentary

interruptions occurred . on average , once every 334 days for a
duration of 14 seconds .

4. Standardization of voltage limits for consumer equipment is needed.

R.7.5 Measurement Of Reliai3ility

R.7.5.1 Distribution System

Accurate measurement of distribution service reliability requires

two things 1) knowledge of where customers are connected to the
distribution system and 2) a program by which interruptions are faithfully
reported.. Ideally, customer location and all other distribution system
parameters are contained in the database of a comprehensive computer
model. Barring a system model, locations and characteristics of
customers and distribution feeder components must be manually recorded
or estimated.

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R.7.5.2 Outage Reporting

An effective interruption reporting system requires the cooperation

of field personnel, system operators, customer services employees and,
most important, the commitment of all levels of management. To help
analyze reliability, interruption records should contain information about
the location, chronologic, involved facilities, cause, weather, service
restoration switching steps and times and the number and characteristics
of the customers involved. Depending upon the amount of detail desired,
creating and maintaining interruption records can be a heavy burden.
Without well-designed computer software, the task is nearly impossible.

R.7.6 Predictive Reliability

Within the distribution planning process, predictive reliability
refers to methods used to analyze and predict the outage behavior
( whether measured in SAIFI. CAIFI, or whatever) of candidate
distribution designs. The overall concept is to evaluate and predict each
design’s expected interruption performance. voltage drop, loading
conditions and cost so the planner can determine that the system will
provide an adequate level of service.

R.7.6.1 Historical Performance

Reliability analysis based on recorded past performance is the most

common practice, but it can be a trap. History tells us what interruptions
occurred in the chosen time period given the prevailing conditions. Plans
developed from historical information are often formulated to prevent
recurrence of past interruptions. These plans might be effective if we
could count on the same past conditions—the same weather patterns, the
same out-of-control vehicles, and the same equipment failures repeating
themselves. Unfortunately, this will not be the case In the case of
interruption patterns, it can almost be guaranteed that future interruption
patterns will differ from those in the past.

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Matching service reliability improvement plans to expected future

conditions is called Predictive Reliability Assessment. The ability to
predict reliability can be useful for a number of reasons:

1. Predictive reliability studies can be used by marketing forces when

trying to convince new, revenue-generating customers to locate in a
utility's service territory. This facet can be especially helpful when
working with customers that are sensitive to interruptions. Studies of
reliability at a particular location are called Load Point Reliability
Studies.

2. Predictive reliability techniques can be a significant aid to help ensure

that scarce capital is spent on the most advantageous reliability
improvement projects. If the costs reliability improvement projects are
known, the projects can be prioritized in terms of customer
Improvement per dollar spent or some other convenient index.

Planners must be aware, however, that predictive reliability techniques

do not yield results for a specific location during a specific time period.
Instead, predictive reliability techniques provide estimates of reliability over
a long period of time within some confidence level. The actual reliability in
the short term may vary.

R.7.6.2 Information Needed For Predictive Reliability

Predictive reliability techniques rely on knowledge of two genera!

classes of information to estimate reliability. component reliability
parameters and system structure. Table (R.5) shows some typical failure
rates for underground distribution components:

Table (R.5) Component failure rates

To predict reliability with reasonable accuracy, planners must know

the system composition, i.e., the number and characteristics of equipment
including their failure rates, estimated conditions, information about traffic,
trees, weather, growth patterns, etc. Acquiring and maintaining this

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information is, again, a burdensome record keeping task. In practice,

simplifying assumptions can be made by planners knowledgeable about their
system. Load research can provide information on demand per customer for
each customer class, for instance. When this information is combined with
feeder input loads, numbers of customers on feeders can be estimated.

R.7.6.3 Software
Software programs are available to calculate service reliability indices
and predict reliability indices for various conditions. Care must be taken
when selecting a software program to insure its accuracy. It would be best to
compare it against known values or standards to insure its accuracy.

R.8 Equipment And Utility Supply Systems

Reliability Data
A knowledge of the reliability of electrical equipment is an important
consideration in the design of power supply systems Ideally these reliability
data should come from field use of the same type of equipment under similar
environmental conditions and similar stress levels . In addition these should
be of sufficient number of field failures in order to represent an adequate
sample size. It is believed that eight failures are the minimum number
necessary in order to have a responsible chance of determining a failure rate
or an " average downtime per failure" to within a factor of two. The type of
reliability data needed on each component of electrical equipment are:

1. Failure rate - failure per year.

2. Average downtime to repair or replace a piece of equipment after a

failure - hours ( or minutes ) per failure.

3. Information on pertinent factors that can have an effect on (1) or (2)

above.

These reliability data on each component of electrical equipment can

then be used to represent historical experience for use in cost-reliability and
cost-availability tradeoff studies in the design of new power systems.

The study groups are conducting extensive surveys of electrical

equipment reliability and electrical supplies . The surveys collect data on :-

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1. Failure rate and outage duration time for electrical equipment and
electric utility power supplies.

2. Failure characteristics or failure modes of electrical equipment that is

the effect of the failure on the system.

3. Causes and types of failures of electrical equipment.

4. Failure repair method and failure repair urgency.

5. Method of service restoration after a failure.

6. Loss of loads versus time of power outage.

R.8.1 Reliability Data From IEEE Surveys

The results of surveys shall be compared with those obtained by the
power systems reliability subcommittee of the IEEE Industrial Power
Systems Department ( See References)

R.8.2 Reliability of Electrical Equipment

The pertinent failure rate and average downtime per failure
information for the in-plant electrical equipment are given in Table (R.6) In
compiling these data a failure was defined as any-trouble with a power
system component that causes any of the following effects:

1. Partial or complete plant shutdown or below-standard plant operation.

2. Unacceptable performance of user’s equipment.

3. Operation of the electrical protection relaying or emergency operation

of the plant electric system.

4. Deenergization of any electric circuit or equipment.

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Table ( R.6)

The following phases of the investigation will detail these data to

cover all subclasses of the equipment.

The "failure repair method and the “ failure repair urgency have a
significant effect on the “ average downtime per failure” for some equipment
categories. Special studies have to be made of this subject.

R.8.3 Reliability of Electric Utility Power Supplies

The "failure rate" and the "average downtime per failure" of electric
utility supplies to industrial plants are given in Table B as abstracted from
IEEE surveys.

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Table (R.7)

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R.9 Reliability Problems and Potential Solutions

Problem Solutions Options
Trees  Trim or remove trees.

 Replace conductor with tree wire.

 Reroute line to a less exposed area.

 Install protective device to limit the scope of tree

caused interruptions. this option will not reduce the
frequency of interruptions to customers on the load
side of the device.

Equipment Evaluate applicability of equipment with regard to the:

Failure
 Insulation level - Is the BIL rating adequate to
prevent voltage over stress at the operating voltage?

 Load capacity - Are short term and long term current

capacities sufficient to prevent overloading during
anticipated normal and emergency loads?

 Interrupting Capacity - Is the interrupting capacity

sufficient to interrupt the maximum available short
circuit current?

 Corrosion resistance - Is the equipment constructed

of material designed to withstand the corrosion
effects of coastal salt fog and industrial or
agricultural chemical pollutants?

 Mechanical design of operating parts - Is the

equipment designed to minimize failure? Is the

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manufacturer's quality control adequate to ensure that

design specifications are met?

Lightning  Use higher BIL insulators.

 Shield distribution lines.

 Increase use of arrestors (one set every 1/4 mile).

 Use insulating links.

 Increase sectionalizing.

 Provide good grounding (10 ohms or less).

Animals/ Birds  Increase conductor spacing or replace bare conductor
and jumpers with insulated conductor to prevent
bird’s wings from electrically contacting conduct.

 Install animal or bird guards on insulators and

equipment bushings.

 Pull slack from slack spans.

Third Party  Assess traffic patterns and relocate poles to less
exposed areas.

 Raise or relocate conductors to reduce the possibility

of third party contact.

 Mark cable locations or install mechanical protection

to prevent dig ins.

R.10 Technical and economic Effectiveness

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No matter how technically elegant the solution to a reliability problem is , it

must also be economically sound to protect the utility's financial position .
One way to evaluate an alternative's technical and economic effectiveness to
estimate the improvement in customer- minutes of interruption of each
alternative , then estimate the stream of costs of each alterative over its life,
compute a Discounted Cash Flow of the stream of costs and benefits and
decide which plan provides the greatest improvement in reliability per
dollar . That is the plan that should be implemented .

LIST OF REFERENCES
R.1 Outage Perception Survey Draft Report. Pacific Gas and Electric
Company, October 15, 1990.

R.2 IEEE Standard Dictionary of Electrical And Electronic Terms 1954

Edition.

R.3 EPRI Report EL-2018, Development of Distribution System Reliability

and Risk Analysis Models Volume 2, Pages 3-3 and 3-4, August 1981.

R.4 IEEE Standard Definitions in Power Operations Terminology Including

Terms For Reporting and Analyzing Outages of Electrical Transmission and
Distribution Facilities and Interruptions to Customer Services IEEE Standard
346-1973.

R.5 Canadian Electrical Association, Distribution System Reliability

Engineering Guide CEA, Suite 580, 1 Westmount Square, Montreal, P.O.,
H3Z 2P9, March 1976.

R.6 Glossary of Electric Utility Terms Edison Electric Institute, 1961.

R.7 Guide for Reliability Measurement and Data Collection, Report of the
Reliability Task Force to the Transmission and Distribution Committee of
the Edison Electric Institute October 1971, unpublished.

R.8 IEEE Committee Report, Definitions of Customer and Load Reliability

Indices for Evaluating Electric Power System Performance IEEE Paper A 75
588-4.

R.9 Goldberg. Saul and Horton, William F., PS Consultants Underground

Feeder Failure Rate and Reliability Study (For Pacific Gas and Electric
Company) , Table 1 , page 3

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R.10 Billinton, R.., Allan R..N., Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems

Plenum Publishing Corporation, New York, NY, 1984.

R.11 Chamberlin D.M., Pidcock 0.1, The Northeast Utilities Distribution

Disturbance and Interruption Monitoring IEEE 1990 Summer Power
Meeting. DIS-6-SPM-90.

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