A STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH

BLUMAN | MAYER
Second Canadian Edition

Chapter 4

Elementary
Statistics

Prepared by Cristina Anton, Grant MacEwan University © 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-1
¡ Introduction
¡ 4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
¡ 4-2 The Addition Rules for Probability
¡ 4-3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
¡ 4-4 Counting Rules

¡ 4-5 Probability and Counting Rules (Optional)

¡ Summary
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-2
¡ In this chapter the student will learn to:
§ determine the probability of an event using
▪ classical probability
▪ the empirical rule
§ find the probability of compound events using the
▪ addition rule
▪ multiplication rule
§ find the conditional probability of an event
§ use the fundamental counting rules to find
▪ total number of outcomes in a sequence of events
▪ probability of an event
§ apply the counting rule to determine the number or ways that r objects
can be selected from n objects
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-3
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¡ What is probability?
§ chance or likelihood of an event occurring
¡ Examples of chance processes include …
§ games of chance (lotteries, card and dice games, slot machines…)
§ weather forecasting
§ Insurance (life or mortality tables, accident occurrences,…)
§ stock predictions
¡ Probability Experiment
§ a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes
§ an outcome is the result of a single trial of the experiment
¡ Sample Space
§ set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-4
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¡ Examples of probability experiments and sample spaces

Experiment Sample space
Toss one coin Head, tail
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6
Draw a card from a deck See figure below
of 52 playing cards

Ace to Ten, Jack, Queen, King

Hearts
Diamonds
Spades
Clubs
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¡ Tree Diagram: schematic with branches illustrating all possible

outcomes of an experiment
¡ Sample Space Example (refer to examples 4-3 & 4-4, p. 150-151)

Sample space for gender (boy, girl)

Outcomes for a family of 3

children
• 2 possible outcomes for 1 child
• 4 possible outcomes for 2
children
• 8 possible outcomes for 3
children

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-6

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¡ Event
§ consists of a set of outcomes in a probability experiment
¡ Simple Event: event with only one possible outcome
§ Examples include:
▪ roll a die once to get a 6
▪ flip a coin once to obtain a head
▪ draw a card from a deck of playing cards to draw the ace of hearts
¡ Compound Event: event with more than one possible outcome
§ Examples include:
▪ roll a die once to get an odd number : 3 possible outcomes (1 or 3 or 5)
▪ draw a card from a deck of playing cards to get a king: 4 possible outcomes
(king of hearts or diamonds or clubs or spades)

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-7

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¡ Classical Probability
§ theoretical probability of equally likely events occurring

¡ Formula for Classical Probability

number of outcomes in E
The probability of event E occurring
total number of outcomes in the sample space

¡ Formula for Classical Probability (using probability notation)

P(E) n( E )
n(S )

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-8

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¡ Classical Probability example (refer to example 4-5, p. 153)

Event E draw a red ace with a single draw from a deck of playing cards
Number of outcomes in E 2 red aces (heart, diamond)
Total number of outcomes in sample space 52 cards in a deck of playing cards

n( E )
P( E )
n(S )
2 1
P( E ) 0.0385
52 26

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-9

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¡ Rules of Probability
§ 1. Probabilities must be between 0 and 1, inclusive.
▪ Probability Notation: 0 P( E ) 1
§ 2. An event that cannot occur has a probability of 0.
▪ For example, probability of rolling a 7 with a single roll of a die.
§ 3. An event that must occur has a probability of 1.
▪ For example, probability of rolling a number less than 7 with a single roll of
a die.
§ 4. The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space is
equal to 1.
▪ For example, probability of a head or tail with a single coin flip
▪ Sample space is head or tail. P(head ) P(tail )
1 1
▪ P(head) = ½ and P(tail) = ½ 2 2
1
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-10
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¡ Complementary Events
§ Probability that an event does not occur
¡ Rule for Complementary Events
P( E ) 1 P( E )
P( E ) probability event E occurs
or
P( E ) 1 P( E ) P( E ) probability event E does not occur
or
P( E ) P( E ) 1
¡ Complementary Event example P( E ) 1 P( E )
What is the probability of not rolling a 6 with a single roll of a die?
P( E ) 1 1 6
Event E roll a 6 with the single roll of a die
Event E do not roll a 6 with a single roll of a die P( E ) 5 6 0.833

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-11

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¡ Empirical Probability
§ Experimental probability of events occurring
§ Formula for Empirical Probability

When the probabilit y of event E is drawn from a frequency distributi on table :

frequency for the class
The probabilit y of event Eoccurring
total frequency in the distributi on

§ Formula for Empirical Probability (using probability notation)

f
P( E )
n

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¡ Empirical Probability example (refer to example 4-12, p. 157,

Canadian Automobile Association Survey about the Labour Day long
weekend travel method)

Method Frequency Event E = the selected person is

driving
Drive 41
f
Fly 6 P( E )
n
Train or bus 3 41
P( E ) 0.82
Total 50 50

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-13

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¡ Law of Large Numbers

§ If an experiment is performed repeatedly, the empirical probability will
approach the classical probability of an event occurring
▪ For example, if a coin is tossed repeatedly and the number of heads are
counted (empirical probability), as the number of tosses increases the
proportion of heads will approach ½ (classical probability)
¡ Subjective Probability
§ Probability determined by estimating or making an educated guess
§ For example:
▪ Sports writer – There is a 10% chance that the Toronto Maple Leafs will win
the Stanley Cup.
▪ Surgeon – There is an 80% chance that the patient will fully recover.
▪ Climatologist – There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-14
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¡ Addition Rule for Probability

§ Determines the probability of two or more events occurring at the
same time
¡ Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time.
Experiment :Draw one card from
a deck of playing cards.
Event A :Draw a 5 of any suit
Event B :Draw a 10 of any suit
Result
Either a 5 or a 10 can be drawn
but both cards cannot be
drawn at the same time.
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-15
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¡ Non-mutually exclusive events can occur at the same time.

Experiment :Draw one card

from a deck of playing cards.
Event A :Draw a 7 of any suit
Event B :Draw any diamond
Result
Either a 7 or a diamond can
be drawn but both events
(draw the 7 of diamonds)
can occur at the same time.
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-16
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¡ Addition Rule for Probability (mutually exclusive events)

§ The probability of two or more mutually exclusive events occurring is
equal to the sum of their respective probabilities
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
§ Example 1: Find the probability of drawing a 5 or a 10 with a single
draw from a deck of cards. (Sample space: 1,2,3,4,5,6)
▪ Event A: draw a 5 (any suit)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)= 4/52 + 4/52
▪ Event B: draw a 10 (any suit) = 8/52≈ 0.154

§ Example 2: Find the probability of rolling a 3 or a 6 with a single roll of

a die.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)= 1/6 + 1/6
▪ Event A: roll a 3 (single die)
= 2/6 or 1/3 ≈ 0.333
▪ Event B: roll a 6 (single die)
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-17
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¡ Addition Rule for Probability (non-mutually exclusive events)

§ The probability of two or more non-mutually exclusive events
occurring is equal to the sum of their respective probabilities minus
their combined (joint) probabilities

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

¡ Example 1: Find the probability of drawing a 7 or a diamond with a

single draw from a deck of cards.
§ Event A: draw a 7 (any suit)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
§ Event B: draw any diamond = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
= 16/52
≈ 0.308

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-18

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¡ Example 2: Given the following table, find the probability of

selecting a female (F) or Liberal (L)
Conservative Liberal New Democrat

Female 5 10 13

Male 15 10 7

P(F or L)= P(F) + P(L) – P(F and L) = 28/60 + 20/60 – 10/60

= 38/60≈ 0.633

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-19

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¡ Multiplication Rule for Probability

§ Determines the probability of two or more events occurring in
sequence

¡ Independent events - occurrence of an event does not affect the

probability of the occurrence of subsequent events

¡ Multiplication Rule for Probability (independent events)

§ The probability of event A occurring followed by event B occurring is
equal to the product of their respective probabilities

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-20

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¡ Example 1: Find the probability of drawing two Aces (any suit) with
two draws from a deck of playing cards (replace 1st card before
drawing 2nd card) Note: after 1st card is
§ Event A: draw an Ace P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B) drawn and replaced
there are still 52
§ Event B: draw an Ace = (4/52) · (4/52)
cards remaining in
= 16/ 2704 the deck and all 4
≈ 0.00592 or 0.006 Aces.

¡ Example 2: Find the probability of rolling three “6’s” on three rolls

of a die.
§ Event A: roll a 6 P(A and B and C) = P(A) · P(B) · P(C)
§ Event B: roll a 6 = (1/6) · (1/6) · (1/6)
= 1/216
§ Event C: roll a 6
≈ 0.00463 or 0.005
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-21
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¡ Example 3: Given the following table, find the probability of

selecting 2 Conservatives (C), replacing the individual after the 1st
selection.
Conservative Liberal New P(C1 and C2)= P(C1) · P(C2)
Democrat = (20/60) ·(20/60)
= 400/3600
Female 5 10 13 = 1/9
≈ 0.111
Male 15 10 7

§ Event C1: Conservative (1st selection)

§ Event C2: Conservative (2nd selection)

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-22

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¡ Dependent events - occurrence of an event does affect the

probability of the occurrence of subsequent events

¡ Multiplication Rule for Probability (dependent events)

§ The probability of event A occurring followed by event B occurring is

equal to the probability of event A occurring multiplied by the
probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-23

 LO 3

¡ Example 1: Find the probability of drawing two Aces (any suit) with
two draws from a deck of playing cards (replace 1st card before
drawing 2nd card) P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A) Note: after 1st card is
§ Event A: draw an Ace drawn and not replaced
= (4/52) · (3/51)
there are only 51 cards
§ Event B: draw an Ace = 12/ 2652 remaining in the deck
≈ 0.00453 or 0.005 and only 3 Aces.
¡ Example 2: Find the probability of drawing three “Queens” on
three draws from a deck of playing cards, without replacing each
card previously drawn
§ Event Q1: Queen(1st draw) P(Q1 and Q2 and Q3)
=(4/52) · (3/51) · (2/50)
§ Event Q2: Queen (2nd draw)
= 24/132600
§ Event Q3: Queen (3rd draw)
≈ 0.000181 or 0.0002
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-24
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¡ Example 3: Given the following table, find the probability of

selecting 2 New Democrats (N), without replacing the individual
after the 1st selection.
Conservative Liberal New P(N1 and N2)= P(N1) · P(N2)
Democrat = (20/60) · (19/59)
= 380/3540
Female 5 10 13 ≈ 0.107
Male 15 10 7

§ Event N1: New Democrat (1st selection)

§ Event N2: New Democrat (2nd selection)

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-25

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¡ Conditional Probability
§ In the formula for the multiplication rule for dependent events, the
probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred is the
conditional probability
¡ Conditional Probability Formula
P(B | A) P( Aand B)
P( A)
¡ Example : Find the probability of getting a parking ticket given
that Sam parked in a no parking zone. (Refer to example 4-33 p.174)
§ Event N = parking in no parking zone; Event T = getting a ticket
§ Known Probabilities: P(N and T) = 0.06, P(N) = 0.20
0.06
P(T | N ) P( N andT ) 0.30
P( N ) 0.20
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-26
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¡ Example 2 : Given the following table

Conservative Liberal New Democrat
Female 5 10 13
Male 15 10 7
§ Find the probability of selecting a male (M) given that the individual is
a Conservative (C).
15
P( M | C )
P( M and C ) 60 15 0.75
P(C ) 20 20
60
§ Find the probability of selecting a Conservative (C) given that the
individual is male (M)
15 15
P(C and M ) 60
P(C | M ) 0.469
P( M ) 32 32
60
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-27
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¡ The multiplication rule can be used with the complementary event

rule to solve probability problems involving “at least”.

¡ Example : Find the probability of drawing at least one “Queen” on

three draws from a deck of playing cards, without replacing each
card previously drawn.
§ E= at least one “Queen” is drawn
§ E = no “Queen” is drawn

48 47 46
P( E ) P(no "Queen" ) 0.783
52 51 50
P( E ) P(at least one "Queen" ) 1 P( E ) 1 0.783 0.217
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-28
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¡ Fundamental Counting Rule

§ Given n events in sequence with each event having ki possibilities,
i=1…n, then the total number of possibilities is the product of the
sequence:
Total outcomes of n events k1 k2 k3 kn
¡ Counting Rule Example (refer to example 4-40 p.187)
§ Blood types: A, B, AB, O Count the number of different
§ Rh factor: Rh+, Rh- ways to label blood
§ Blood donor: male, female Total outcomes of 3 events
k1 k2 k3
(# blood type) (#Rh factor) (# gender)
(4) (2) (2)
16
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¡ Factorial Notation - factorial symbol is the exclamation point (!)

§ product of all integers less than or equal to “n” counting down to 1
n! n (n -1) (n - 2) 1
§ except (by convention) 0! 1
¡ Factorial Examples
§ solve the following factorials
▪ 3! = 3·2·1 = 6
▪ 7! = 7·6·5·4·3·2·1 = 5040
▪ 11! = 11·10·9·8·7·6·5·4·3·2·1 = 39916800
§ Refer to the adjacent to table and calculate
the factorial of the number indicated.
▪ Note: various calculator models display an error
above 39!
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¡ Permutation: arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r

objects at a time
§ Permutation formula: ORDER MATTERS
n! nPr =Number of ways of selecting “r” objects from a set of
n Pr (n r )! “n” objects
n = total number of objects; r = selected number of objects
¡ Permutation example (refer to example 4-46 p. 191)
§ Given 4 letters (A,B,C,D) select 2 letters at a time.
▪ n=4 n!
AB BA CA DA n Pr(n r )!
▪ r=2 4!
AC BC CB DB P
§ Count the number of permutations AD BD CD DC
4 2 (4 2)!
P 12
(AB and BA are both counted). 4 2

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¡ Combination: arrangement of n objects in any order

§ Combination formula: ORDER DOES NOT MATTER
n! nCr =Number of ways of selecting “r” objects from a set of
n Cr (n r )!r ! “n” objects
n = total number of objects; r = selected number of objects
¡ Combination example (refer to example 4-46 p. 191)
§ Given 4 letters (A,B,C,D) select 2 letters at a time.
▪ n=4
AB BA CA DA n!
▪ r=2 n Cr(n r )!r!
AC BC CB DB
§ Count the number of combinations C 4!
AD BD CD DC 4 2 (4 2)!2!
(AB and BA are the same). C 6
4 2

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-32

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¡ The counting rules can be combined with the probability rules to

solve many types of probability problems.
¡ Example (refer to example 4-51, p. 196)
§ A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are defective. If 4 are sold at
random, find the probability
▪ None is defective
The number of ways to choose no defective is 20C4.
The number of ways to choose 4 transistors is 24C4.
C 4845
P(no defective ) 20 4 0.456
24 C 4 10626
▪ At least one is defective

20 C4 1927
P( at least 1 defective ) 1 - P(no defective ) 1 0.544
24 C 4 3542
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-33
¡ The 3 types of probability are:
§ Classical probability – sample spaces (theoretical)
§ Empirical probability – frequency distributions (observations)
§ Subjective probability – educated guesses
¡ Distinctions should be made between types of events
§ Mutually-exclusive (events cannot occur at the same time) and non-
mutually exclusive events
§ Independent events (one event does not affect the outcome of
another event) and dependent events
¡ Probabilities can be calculated using the addition rule,
multiplication rule and complementary event rule.
¡ Total number of outcomes of events were solved using
fundamental counting rules, permutations and combinations
© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-34