954 / 3 TRIAL STPM 2014

___________________________________________________________________________________________
UPPER 6
MATHEMATICS (T)
PAPER 3
One and a half hours

SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEBANGSAAN METHODIST (ACS) KLANG

Date : 08.10.2014 Time : 11.30 - 1.00 pm
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Instructions to candidates:
DO NOT OPEN THIS QUESTION PAPER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO
Answer all questions in Section A and only one question in Section B..
All necessary working should be shown clearly.
Non-exact numerical answers may be given correct to three significant figures, or one decimal place in the case of
angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Prepared and Checked by Verified by,

…………………………. . ………………………………
Mr Chan Seuk Kong Ms Krishnaveni Krishnaratnam
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Section A [45 marks]
Answer all questions in this section
1. The table below shows the number of children in 20 families.
Number of children 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of families 2 7 5 4 1 1
(a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of children in the families. [5 marks]
(b) Find the percentage of the families with a number of children less than the mean. [3 marks]

2. From the past experience, the probability that a new worker in a company can complete his daily tasks
satisfactorily is 0.8 if he has undergone the company’s in house training and 0.4 if he has not undergone the
training. If 85% of the new workers has undergone training, find
(a) the probability that a new worker of the company can complete his tasks satisfactorily, [ 3 marks]
(b) the probability that a new worker of the company who has not undergone training given that he can
complete his tasks satisfactorily. [ 2 marks]

3. The discrete random variable X represents the number of air-conditioners sold by a company in a week. X
has a Poisson distribution with mean and E ( X 2 ) = 12.
(a) Determine the value of . [3 marks]
(b) Calculate the probability that five air-conditioners are sold in four weeks. [3 marks]

4. The speeds of 120 randomly selected cars are measured as they pass a camera on a freeway. Denoting the
speed by x kmh－1 the results are summarised by = 11779.2 and = 4706.93.
Find (a) unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance. [4 marks]
(b) an approximate symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean. [3 marks]
5. An egg producer sets a target that at least 60% of his egg production should be grade A. In a random
sample of 80 eggs, 42 are found to be grade A. Test , at the 5% significance level, whether egg production is
failing to reach the target. [6 marks]
State what you understand by the expression ‘at the 5% significance level’ in the context of this question.
[2
marks]
6. A farmer kept a record of the time of delivery of each calf and the type of assistance the cow needed. The
following table summarises some of his data.
Day Night Using a chi-squared test, at the 5 % level of
Unattended 42 58 significance, determine whether there is any
Farmer assisted 63 117 association between type of birth and time of the
Veterinary supervised 85 35 day.
[11 marks]

Section B [15 marks]

Answer only one question in this section

7. Two red balls and two white balls are placed in a bag. Balls are drawn one by one, at random and without
replacement. The random variable X is the number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is drawn.

(i) Show that P ( X = 1) = , and find the rest of the probability distribution of X. [5 marks]

(ii) Find E(X) and show that Var (X) = . [5 marks]

(iii) The sample mean for 80 independent observations of X is denoted by . Using a suitable
approximation, find P ( > 0.75). [5
marks]

8. A continuous random variable X has the probability density function

(a) Find the value of the constant h. [3 marks]

(b) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x) of X. [4 marks]

(c) Find the value of x such that P(X < x ) = [3 marks]

(d) Find E( X+2) [3 marks]

(e) Hence, deduce E(X) [2 marks]
Marking Scheme TRIAL STPM 2014 ACS KLANG
1. The table below shows the number of children in 20 families.
Number of children 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of families 2 7 5 4 1 1
(a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of children in the families. [5 marks]
(b) Find the percentage of the families with a number of children less than the mean. [3
marks]
ANSWER:

(a) Mean , = = = = 1.9 M1 A1

= 02(2) + 12(7) + 22(5) + 32(4) + 42(1) + 52(1) = 104 B1

Standard deviation =  = = = =1.261 M1 A1

(b) Number of families less than 1.9 children = 2 + 7 = 9 B1

Percentage = = 45 % M1 A1

2. From the past experience, the probability that a new worker in a company can complete his daily tasks
satisfactorily is 0.8 if he has undergone the company’s in house training and 0.4 if he has not undergone the
training. If 85% of the new workers has undergone training, find
(a) the probability that a new worker of the company can complete his tasks satisfactorily, [ 3 marks]
(b) the probability that a new worker of the company who has not undergone training given that he can
complete his tasks satisfactorily. [ 2 marks]
ANSWER :
S = workers can complete their tasks satisfactorily
K= workers have attended training course

(a) P( S ) = P( SK) + P(SK’)

P(S|K)=0.8 S P( SK) = (0.85)(0.8) + (0.15)(0.4) M1 M1
K = 0.74 A1
P(K)=0.85 P(S’|K)=0.2 S’ P(S’K)

(b) P(K’ | S ) = = M1

P(K’)=0.15 P(S|K’)=0.4 S P(SK’) = =

K’
P(S’|K’)=0.6 S’ P(S’K’) = 0.08108 A1
3. The discrete random variable X represents the number of air-conditioners sold by a company in a week.
X has a Poisson distribution with mean and E ( X 2 ) = 12.
(a) Determine the value of . [3 marks]
(b) Calculate the probability that five air-conditioners are sold in four weeks. [3 marks]
ANSWER :
X ~ Po ( ) and given E ( X 2 ) = 12
Mean, E (X) = and Variance , Var (X) =
(a) From Var (X) =
E (X 2)  [E (X)]2 =
12  [ ]2 = M1
2
+ 12 = 0
(  3 ) ( + 4) = 0
=3 , =4 M1
Mean of Poisson distribution must be positive , = 3 A1
(b) Mean for four weeks = 3 X 4 = 12 B1
Y ~ Po (12)

P( Y = 5) = = 0.012741 M1 A1

4. The speeds of 120 randomly selected cars are measured as they pass a camera on a freeway. Denoting
the speed by x kmh－1 the results are summarised by = 11779.2 and = 4706.93.
Find (a) unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance. [4 marks]
(b) an approximate symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean. [3 marks]
ANSWER :

(a) unbiased estimates of the population mean, = = = = 98.16 B1

= 4706.93.

200 + n(100)2 = 4706.93

200(11779.2)+ (120)(100)2 = 4706.93

= 1,160,546.93 B1

unbiased estimates of the population variance, =

= = 36.14 M1 A1

symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean

 = 98.16  2.054 B1 for 2.054 M1 formula

= ( 97.033, 99.287 ) A1
5. An egg producer sets a target that at least 60% of his egg production should be grade A. In a
random sample of 80 eggs, 42 are found to be grade A. Test , at the 5% significance level, whether egg
production is failing to reach the target. [6 marks]
State what you understand by the expression ‘at the 5% significance level’ in the context of this
question. [2 marks]
ANSWER :
Let p denote the proportion of eggs that are grade A eggs and
denote the sample proportion of eggs that are grade A eggs
Given n=80 , = = 0.525 Hypothesis : H0 : p = 0.6
H1 : p < 0.6

Test statistic : M1 standard error ( , ,

0.05477)
M1 formula , A1

Level of significance : α = 0.05

Critical region : Reject Ho if z < －1.645 B1 (－1.645)
Conclusion : Since z=－1.369 >－1.645, M1 compare
there is not enough evidence to reject Ho at α = 0.05,
The proportion of eggs that are grade A is 60%. A1
At 5% significance level refers to a probability of 0.05 that the test statistic lies in the critical region under H o .
In this context, we will reject Ho B1
if the test value (sample proportion of the 80 eggs that are grade A eggs) lies in the lower tail 5% of the
distribution of the sample proportion. B1

6. A farmer kept a record of the time of delivery of each calf and the type of assistance the cow needed.
The following table summarises some of his data.
Day Night Using a chi-squared test, at the 5 % level of
Unattended 42 58 significance, determine whether there is any
Farmer assisted 63 117 association between type of birth and time of
Veterinary supervised 85 35 the day. [11 marks]
ANSWER :
H0 : There is NO association between type of birth and time of the day
H1 : There is association between type of birth and time of the day
Alternative
H0 : The type of birth and time of the day of delivery are independent
H1 : The type of birth and time of the day of delivery are NOT independent B1 both
Day Night Total *values in brackets are the EXPECTED
Unattended 42 (47.5) 58 (52.5) 100 value, Ei
Farmer assisted 63 (85.5) 117 (94.5) 180 M1 any 2 row/column total correct , A1 all
Veterinary supervised 85 (57) 35 (63) 120 total correct

190 210 400 M1 any 2 Ei correct, A1 all Ei correct

Test statistic : c2 calc =

= 0.6368 +5.9211 + 13.754 + 0.5762+ 5.3571 + 12.444 M1 first and last term correct M1 all correct
= 38.69 A1
Critical Region : Degree of freedom =(3－1)(2－1) = 2 B1
Reject H0 if c2 calc> 5.991 A1
Conclusion : Since c2 calc= 38.69 > 5.991, there is enough evidence to reject H0 at α = 0.05.
There is association between type of birth and time of the day. A1
7. Two red balls and two white balls are placed in a bag. Balls are drawn one by one, at random and
without replacement. The random variable X is the number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is
drawn. (i) Show that P ( X = 1) = , and find the rest of the probability distribution of X. [5 marks]

(ii) Find E(X) and show that Var (X) = . [5 marks]

(iii) The sample mean for 80 independent observations of X is denoted by . Using a suitable
approximation, find P ( > 0.75). [5
marks]
ANSWER :
X = number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is drawn
W = white ball drawn , R = red ball drawn

P(W|W)=1/3 W P(WW)=P(X=2) (i) P( X = 1) = = M1 A1

W
P(W)=2/4 P(R|W)=2/3 R P(RW)=P(X=1)
P( X = 2) = = M1A1

P( X = 0) = = Alternative ( )+( ) B1
P(R)=2/4 P(W|R)=2/3 W P(WR)=P(X=0)
R
P(R|R)=1/3 R P(RR)=P(X=0)

Probability distribution table of X

x 0 1 2
P(X = x)

(ii) E(X) = = (0) +(1) + (2) = M1A1

E(X 2) = = (02) +(12) + (22) = 1 B1

Var (X) = E(X 2)  [ E(X)]2 = 1  ( )2 = M1 A1

(iii) Population Mean =  = and Variance= 2 =

Using Central Limit Theorem , with large sample ,n = 80

~ N ( , ) ~N( , ) B1, B1

Z= =

P( > 0.75) = P ( > ) M1

= P (Z > 1) = 0.15866 M1 A1
8. A continuous random variable X has the probability density function

(a) Find the value of the constant h. [3 marks]

(b) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x) of X. [4 marks]
(c) Find the value of x such that P(X < x ) = [3 marks]
(d) Find E( X+2) [3 marks]
(e) Hence, deduce E(X) [2 marks]
ANSWER :

(a) M1 (c) P(X < x ) = since P(X < x ) = P(X < x ) = F(x)

F(x) = = M1
M1

=
0( )=1 (2+x)4 = 128 M1
x = 1.3636 A1
h = 64 A1
(b) For x<0 : F(x) = 0 (d) E(X+2) =
For x > 0 : F(x) =
= M1

= + B1 =

= 0+ M1 = M1

=0 = A1
= +1 M1

(e) Hence, E(X+2) =

A1
E(X) + 2 = M1

E(X) = 2 = A1