Unit-IV

Definitions of Various Terms in this section we will define and explain the various terms which are
used in the definition of probability.

Trial and Event:

Consider an experiment which, though repeated under essentially identical conditions, does not give
unique results but may result in any one of the several possible outcomes. The experiment is known
as a trail and the outcomes are known as events or casts.

For example:

(i) Throwing of a die is a trial and getting (1 or 2 or 3, ... or 6) is an event

(ii) Tossing of a coin is a trial and getting head (H) or tail (T) is an event
(iii) Drawing two cards from a pack of well-shuffled· cards is a trial and getting a king and queen
are events.

Exhaustive Events:

The total number of possible outcomes in any trial is known as exhaustive events or exhaustive
cases.

For example:

(i) In tossing of a coin there are two exhaustive cases, viz., head and. tail[ (the possibility of the
coin standing on an edge being ignored).
(ii) (ii) In throwing of a die, there are six, ~exhaustive cases since anyone of the 6 faces 1,2, ... ,6
may come uppermost.

Favourable Events or Cases:

The number of cases favourable to an event in a trial is the number of outcomes which entail the
happening of the event

For Example

(i) In drawing a card from a pack of cards the number of cases favourable to drawibng of an
ace is 4, for drawing a spade is 13 and for drawing a red card is 26.
(ii) In throwing of two dice, the number of cases favourable to getting the sum 5 is : (1,4) (4,1)
(2,3) (3,2), i.e., 4.

Mutually exclusive events

Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible jf the happening of anyone of them
precludes the happening of all the others (i.e., if no two or more of them can happen
simultaneously in the same trial

For example:

(i) In throwing a die all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive since if anyone of
these faces comes, ,the possibility of others, in the same trial is ruled out
(ii) Similarly in tossing a coin the events head and tail are mutually exclusive

Equally likely events:

 Outcomes of a trial are set to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant evidence
there is no reason to expect one in preference to the others.

For example

(i) In tossing an unbiased or uniform coin, head or tail are equally likely events.
(ii) In throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces are equally likely to come.

Independent events:

Several events are said 'to be independent if the happening (or non-happening) of an event is not
affected by the supplementary knowledge concerning the occurrence of any number of the
remaining events.

For example:

(i) In tossing a coin an unbiased coin the event of getting a head in the first toss is independent
of getting a head, in the second, third and subsequent throws.
(ii) If we draw a card from a pack of well-shuffled cards and. replace it before drawing. the
second card, the result of the second draw is independent of the first draw. But, however, if
the first card drawn is not replaced then the second draw is dependent on the first draw.

Definition

If a trial results in n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely cases and m of them are
favourable to the happening of an event E then the probability of happening of E is given by
𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑚
𝑝 = 𝑃(𝐸) = exhaustive 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠
= 𝑛

Example:

A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls, what is the probability that two balls drawn are white
and blue?

Example:

(a) Two cards are drawn 'at random from a well-shaffled pact of 52 cards, show that the chance of
drawing two aces is 1/221,
(b) From a pack of 52 cards, three are drawn at random, Find the chance that they are a king, a
queen, and a knave,

(c) Four cards are drown from a pack of cards, Find the probability that

(i) all are diamond,

(ii) there is one card of each suit, and

(iii) there are two spades and two hearts.

Example:
What is the probability of getting 9 cards of the same suit in one hand at a game of bridge?

Example
(a) Among the digits 1,2,3,4,5, at first one is chosen and then a second selection is made
among the remaining four digits. Assuming all twenty possible outcomes have equal
probabilities, find the probability that an odd digit will be selected (i) the first time, (ii) the
second time, and (iii) both times.
(b) From 25 tickets, marked with the first 25- numerals, one is drawn at random. Find the
chance that (i) it is a multiple of 5 or 7, (ii) it is a multiple of3 or 7.

Example:
What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays?
Example:
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack 0/ playing cards. What is the probability that it is
either a spade or an ace?

EQUALLY LIKELY SIMPLE EVENTS

Let a sample space S consists of n equally likely simple events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 … 𝐸𝑛 . Then 𝑃(𝐸1 ) =
𝑃(𝐸2)= … = 𝑃(𝐸𝑛) .

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS☹(Disjoint)

Two events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 of a sample space S are said to be mutually exclusive if they have no
sample points in common i.e., 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = 𝜙.
Example:
What is the probability that a card drawn at random from the pack of
playing cards may be either a queen or a king
Example:
1. Two coins are tossed. The event of getting two tails given that there is at least one tail is
a conditional event.
2. Two unbiased dice are thrown. If the sum of the numbers thrown on them is 7, the event
of getting 1 on anyone of them is a conditional event.
3. A die is thrown 3 times. The event of getting the sum of the numbers thrown is 15 when it
is known that the first throw was a 5 is a conditional event.
Example:
Find the probability of drawing 2 red balls in succession from a bag containing 4 red and 5
black balls when the ball that is drawn first is (i) not replaced (ii) replaced.
Eample:
A class has 10 boys and 5 girls. Three students are selected at random one after another.
Find the probability that (i) first two are boys and third is girl (ii) First and third are of same
sex and the second is of opposite sex.
 ̅̅̅ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸)

Example :
Two aeroplanes bomb a target in succession. The probability of each
correctly scoring a hit is 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. The second will bomb only if the first
misses the target. Find the probability that (i) target is hit (ii) both fails to score hits.
Example;
Two marbles are drawn in succession from a box containing 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue and
15 orange marbles, with replacement being made after each draw. Find the probahlay that
(i) Both are white (ii) First is red and second is white.

State and Prove the Baye’s theorem

Example:
In a certain college, 25% of boys and 10% of girls are studying mathematics. The girls
constitute 60% of the student body. (a) What is the probability that mathematics is being
studied? (b) If a student is selected at random and is found to be studying mathematics, find
the probability that the student is a girl? (c) a boy?
Example 2
The chance that doctors A will diagnose a disease x correctly is 60%. The chance that a
patient will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by
wrong diagnosis is 70%. A patient of doctor A, who had disease x, died. What is the chance
that his disease was diagnosed correctly.