Week 9

PROBABILITY THEORY
1.1 Random Experiment
An experiment is an operation whose output cannot be predicted with certainty. If in
each trail of an experiment conducted under identical conditions, the outcome is not
unique, but may be any one of the possible outcomes, then such an experiment is
called Random Experiment.
1.2 Sample Space

A sample space can be defined as the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
and is denoted by S. The set S = {E1, E2, E3,..., En} is called a sample space of an
experiment satisfying the following two conditions
(i) Each element of the set S denotes one of the possible outcomes
(ii) The outcome is one and only one element of the set S whenever the experiment
is performed. For example, in a tossing a coin Sample space consists of head and tail
S={H,T} and the two coins are tossed then the sample space S ={HH,HT,TH,TT}.
1.3 Trail and Events

Any particular performance of a random experiment is called trail and the outcome
or combinations of outcomes are termed as event.
1.4 Exhaustive Events

The total number of possible outcome of a random experiment is known as the

exhaustive events. For example, in a tossing a coin head and tail are the two
exhaustive cases. In drawing two cards from a pack of cards, the exhaustive number
of cases is 52C2, since 2 cards can be drawn out of 52 cards in 52C2 ways.
1.5 Favourable Events

The number of cases favourable to an event in a trail is the number of

outcomes which entail the happening of the event. For example, in
throwing of two dice, the number of cases favourable to getting the sum
5 is (2,3),(3,2),(1,4) and (4,1)

1.6 Mutually Exclusive Events

Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible if the happening of any one
of them precludes the happening of all the others, i.e., if no two or more of them can
happen simultaneously in the same trail. For example, in tossing a coin, both head
and tail cannot occur in a single trail.

1.7 Equally Likely Events

Outcomes of a trail are said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the
relevant evidences, there is no reason to expect one in preference to the others. For
example, in tossing a coin, getting a head and tail are equally likely events.

1.8 Independent Events

Several events are said to be independent if the happening of an event is not affected
by the supplementary knowledge concerning the occurrence of any number of the
remaining events. For example, in tossing a unbiased coin, the event of getting a
head in the first toss is independent of getting a head in the second, third and
subsequent throws.
1.9 Algebraic Operations of Events

For events A, B, C, then

(i) (AB) = {S: A or B}
(ii) (AB) = {S: A and B}
(iii) Ac or A (A complement ) = {S: A }
(iv) A-B= {S: A but B}
(v) A    for every A, B
(vi) BA    
(vii) A=B if and only if A and B have same elements, i.e., A  B and B  A
(viii) AB can be denoted by A+B if A and B are disjoint.
(ix) A and B are disjoint (mutually exclusive)  =
Notes:Algebra of Sets

Commutative law AB = B A, AB = B A

Associative law A(BC) = (AB)C , A(BC) = (AB)C
Distributive Laws A(BC) = (AB)(AC),
A(BC) = (AB)(AC)
Complementary law A 𝐴̅ = S, A 𝐴̅ = , AS=S, AS= A,
A = A, A =  𝐴̿= 𝑆̅ = , 𝛷
̅ = S,

Difference law A-B = A 𝐵̅ . A-B = A-(AB) =(AB)-B

A-(B-C) = (A-B)(A-C) , (AB)-C = (A-C)(B-C)
DeMorgan’s Law
(AB)c = A c B c , (AB) c = A c B c
1.10 MATHEMATICAL (OR CLASSICAL OR PRIORI)
PROBABILITY

If a random experiment or a trail results in‘n’ exhaustive, mutually

exclusive and equally likely outcomes out of which ‘m’ are favourable to
the occurrence of an event E, then the probability ‘P’ of occurrence of E ,
usually denoted by P(E), is given by

Example: A bag contains 4 red and 6 green balls out of which 3 balls
are drawn: Find the probability of drawing
i) 2 red and 1 green balls. ii) all red balls.
iii) one green ball. iv) no red ball.
Solution:
Example: If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability of
getting
i) a double six. ii) a sum of 8 or more dots.
Example: A fair die is tossed. Find the probability that the number on
the uppermost face is not six.
Solution: Sample space is given by

1.11 STATISTICAL (OR EMPIRICAL) PROBABILITY

If an experiment is performed repeatedly under essentially homogeneous

and identical conditions, then the limiting value of the ratio of the number
of times the event occurs to the numbers of the trails, as the number of
trails becomes infinitely large, is called the probability of happening of
the event, it begin assumed that the limit is finite and unique.
Symbolically, if in N trails an event E happens M times, then the
probability of the happening of E, denoted by P(E) is given by
1.12 AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY

The axioms approach was given by A.N Kolmogrov. With each event E i
in a finite sample space S, associate a real number, say P(Ei) called the
probability of an event Ei satisfying the conditions:
(i) Nonnegative: 0≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1.
This implies that the probability of an event is always non-negative and
can never exceed. If P (A) = 1, the event A is certainly going to happen
and if P (A) = 0, the event is certainly not going to happen (impossible
event).
(ii) Certainty : The probability of the sample space is 1. P(S) =1,
(iii) Union : If {An} is any finite or infinite sequence of disjoint events in
B, then
Addition Theorem For Not Mutually Exclusive Events
Example 15: A fair cion is tossed three times. What is the probability that atleast
one head appears?
Ans:
P(A)=7/8
Deck of Cards Questions
• There are 52 cards in a standard deck of cards
• There are 4 of each card (4 Aces, 4 Kings, 4 Queens, etc.)
• There are 4 suits (Clubs, Hearts, Diamonds, and Spades) and there
are 13 cards in each suit (Clubs/Spades are black,Hearts/Diamonds
are red)
• Without replacement means the card IS NOT put back into the
deck. With replacement means the card IS put back into the deck.
Example 16:

A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find

the probability of:

(i) ‘2’ of spades

(ii) a jack

(iii) a king of red colour

(iv) a card of diamond

(v) a king or a queen

(vi) a non-face card

(vii) a black face card

(viii) a black card

(ix) a non-ace

(x) non-face card of black colour

(xi) neither a spade nor a jack

(xii) neither a heart nor a red king

Solution:
In a playing card there are 52 cards.
Therefore the total number of possible outcomes = 52
(i) ‘2’ of spades:
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘2’ of spades is 1 out of 52
cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘2’ of spade
 Number of favorable outcomes
P(A) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 1/52

(ii) a jack
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a jack’ is 4 out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a jack’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(B) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 4/52
= 1/13
(iii) a king of red colour
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a king of red colour’ is 2
out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a king of red colour’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(C) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 2/52
= 1/26
(iv) a card of diamond
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a card of diamond’ is 13
out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a card of diamond’

Number of favorable outcomes

P(D) =
Total number of possible outcome
= 13/52
= 1/4

(v) a king or a queen

Total number of king is 4 out of 52 cards.
Total number of queen is 4 out of 52 cards
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a king or a queen’ is 4 + 4
= 8 out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a king or a queen’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(E) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 8/52
= 2/13
(vi) a non-face card
Total number of face card out of 52 cards = 3 times 4 = 12
Total number of non-face card out of 52 cards = 52 - 12 = 40
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a non-face card’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(F) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 40/52
= 10/13

(vii) a black face card:

Cards of Spades and Clubs are black cards.
Number of face card in spades (king, queen and jack or knaves)
=3
Number of face card in clubs (king, queen and jack or knaves) =
3
Therefore, total number of black face card out of 52 cards =
3+3=6
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a black face card’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(G) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 6/52
= 3/26

(viii) a black card:

Cards of spades and clubs are black cards.
Number of spades = 13
Number of clubs = 13
Therefore, total number of black card out of 52 cards = 13 + 13
= 26
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a black card’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(H) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 26/52
=½
(ix) a non-ace:
Number of ace cards in each of four suits namely spades, hearts,
diamonds and clubs = 1
Therefore, total number of ace cards out of 52 cards = 4
Thus, total number of non-ace cards out of 52 cards = 52 - 4
= 48
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a non-ace’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(I) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 48/52
= 12/13
(x) non-face card of black colour:
Cards of spades and clubs are black cards.
Number of spades = 13
Number of clubs = 13
Therefore, total number of black card out of 52 cards = 13 + 13
= 26
Number of face cards in each suits namely spades and clubs = 3
+3=6
Therefore, total number of non-face card of black colour out of
52 cards = 26 - 6 = 20
Therefore, probability of getting ‘non-face card of black colour’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(J) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 20/52
= 5/13

(xi) neither a spade nor a jack

Number of spades = 13
Total number of non-spades out of 52 cards = 52 - 13 = 39
Number of jack out of 52 cards = 4
Number of jack in each of three suits namely hearts,
diamonds and clubs = 3
[Since, 1 jack is already included in the 13 spades so, here we
will take number of jacks is 3]
Neither a spade nor a jack = 39 - 3 = 36
Therefore, probability of getting ‘neither a spade nor a jack’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(K) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 36/52
= 9/13

(xii) neither a heart nor a red king

Number of hearts = 13
Total number of non-hearts out of 52 cards = 52 - 13 = 39
Therefore, spades, clubs and diamonds are the 39 cards.
Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards.
Number of red kings in red cards = 2
Therefore, neither a heart nor a red king = 39 - 1 = 38
[Since, 1 red king is already included in the 13 hearts so, here
we will take number of red kings is 1]
Therefore, probability of getting ‘neither a heart nor a red king’
Number of favorable outcomes
P(L) =
Total number of possible outcome

= 38/52
= 19/26
Example 17:

A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of

cards numbered 1 to 20. Find the probability of
(i) getting a number less than 7
(ii) getting a number divisible by 3.

Solution:
Total number of possible outcomes = 20 ( since there are
(i)
cards numbered 1, 2, 3, ..., 20).
Number of favourable outcomes for the event E
= number of cards showing less than 7 = 6
(namely 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
So, P(E) = Number of Favourable Outcomes for the Event E
Total Number of Possible Outcomes

=6/20

=3/10
(ii) Total number of possible outcomes = 20.
Number of favourable outcomes for the event F
= number of cards showing a number divisible by 3
= 6 (namely 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18).
So, P(F) = Number of Favourable Outcomes for the Event F
Total Number of Possible Outcomes
=6/20

=3/10

Example 18:

A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the

probability that the card drawn is
(i) a king
(ii) neither a queen nor a jack.

Solution:
Total number of possible outcomes = 52 (As there are 52 different
cards).
(i) Number of favourable outcomes for the event E = number of kings in
the pack = 4.
So, by definition, P(E) = 4/52
= 1/13

(ii) Number of favourable outcomes for the event F

= number of cards which are neither a queen nor a jack
= 52 - 4 - 4, [Since there are 4 queens and 4 jacks].
 = 44
Therefore, by definition, P(F) = 44/52
= 11/13