Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

CHAPTER 7

7.1
x1 = 45 and x2 = 120 / 160 =.75
λ ( t / x ) = e−9.48 +.01759 x1 + 7.017 x2 = e−9.48 + .01759( 45)+ 7.017(.75) =.03253 × 10−3
MTTF = 1 / λ = 30740.85
−3
R(1000) = e− (1000)(.03253×10 )
=.96799
x1 = 30 and x2 = 120 / 160 =.75
λ (t / x ) = e −9.48+ .01759 x1 + 7.017 x2 = e −9.48+ .01759( 30) + 7.017(.75) = e −3.6896 =.02498 × 10 −3
−3
R(1000) = e − (1000)(.02498×10 ) =.97533
x1 = 45 and x2 = 120 / 200 =.60
λ (t / x ) = e −9.48+ .01759 x1 + 7.017 x2 = e −9.48 +.01759( 45) + 7.017(.6) = e −4.4783 =.01135 × 10 −3
−3
R(1000) = e − (1000)(.01135×10 ) =.98871
Increasing the capacitor rating improves the reliability the most because λ is decreased.
.98871 .96799
The percentage increase is: =.0214 → 2.14%
.96799
7.2
u( x ) = 12.31−.0157( 200)−.35( 7.3) 6.615
FG
ln t − u( x ) IJ FG ln(20) − 6.615IJ = 1 − Φ( −2.53) =.9943
R( t ) = 1 − Φ
s H K → R( 20) = 1 − Φ
H 143 . K
7.3

z
1000 1
z 1000
−
x
O
dx = M− e P = − e − ( −1) =.86466
−
x 1000
−2
f ( x )dx =
Q
500 500
a) R= 0 0
e
500
F 1000 − μ J = ΦFG 1000 − 500J = Φ(3.03) =.99878
0

R = P ( X < 1000) = ΦG
b)
H θ K H 165 K
F 1 t J = ΦFG 1 ln 1000J = Φ(2.31) =.98956
R = P (ln X ≤ ln 1000) = ΦG ln
c)
H s t K H .3 500 K med
7.4

z z 250
x
∞ 1 ∞ − −
f ( y )dy = dx = 0 − ( − e ) =.90832
2600
a) R= e 2600
250 2600 250

FG IJ FG y IJ β β
GH θy JK GH 2600 JK
.8
β −1 250
∞ ∞ β y −
HθK − −
b) R = P (Y ≥ s) =
s
f ( y )dy =
s θ θ H K e dy = e =e =.85762

c) R = P(Y ≥ 250 ) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 250) = 1 − P(ln Y ≤ ln 250) = 1 − Φ GH .19 ln 2600

250
JK
= 1 − Φ( −2.60) =.99534

7-1
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

7.5
Using equation 7.15:
1 1 .95( 25)
R= = =.95 → μ y = = 475
μx 25 .05
1+ 1+
μy μy
Or:

R( y ) =
1
25 z 0
y −
e
x
25 dx = −e
−
x
25 y = 1 −
0 e
−
y
25

z z F 1 − e I λe
z z
FG 1 + λ IJ y
H 25 K dy
y

GH JK
∞ ∞ − ∞ ∞ −
− λy
R= R ( y ) f ( y )dy = 25 dy = λe − λy dy − λe
0 0 0 0

LM −e FGH −
1
+λ y
IJ
K OP ∞

λ
− λM F PP
25
− λy ∞ .05
= −e
MN GH
1 IJ = 1−
FG 1 IJ =.95 → λ =
.95 × 25
→ MTTF = 475
K
Q H K
0 +λ
25 +λ
0 25
7.6

R = P ( X ≤ 950) =
950 3x 2
dx =
LM x OP 3 950

=.85738
0 10 9
N10 Q 9
0
7.7
F μ −μ I F 275 − 180 I
GG y x
JJ = ΦGH J = Φ(2.43) =.99245
25 + 30 K
Using equation 7.5: R = Φ
H θ +θ 2
y
2
x K 2 2

z
7.8
20 20
R = P ( X < Y ) = P ( X < 20) =.25 e − .25 x dx = − e −.25 x = − e −.25( 20) + 1 =.99326
0 0

R (t ) = e − (1− R )αt = e − (.00674)(.5) t

a) R (10) = e − (.00674)(.5)(10) =.96686 and b) R ( 20) = e − (.00674)(.5)(20) =.93482

7.9 from equation 7.22,

R = P(Y ≥ X ) = P(Y ≥ 120 ) = z ∞

120
f ( y )dy = 1 − Φ GH 12045− 200IJK = 1 − Φ( −178
. ) =.96246

R( t ) = R + (1 − R )e − at =.96246+.03754e−.25t → R(5) =.9732

7.10
R( y ) = z z f ( y ) f ( x )dydx = z z .04( y − 15)dy 12 dx = z .02( y − 15)
y 20
15 x Y X
17 20
15 x
17
15
2 20
x
1
2
dx

= z .5−.02( x − 15) b x − 15g OPQ =.4733

17

dx = M.5 x −
17 1 1 .02 2 3
15
2 2 3 15

7-2
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

7.11

R = P( X ≤ Y ) = P( X ≤ 1200 ) =
1
z
1200 −
x
dx = − e MN
−
x 1200
OP = −e
−
1200
− ( −1) =.9817
Q
0
e 300 300 300
300 0

R( t ) =.981687 =.8786

7.12

M OPQ
1000
1000 3y 2 y3 10003 − 464 3
a) R = P (Y ≥ X ) = P (Y ≥ 464) = dy = = =.9001
464 109 109 464
109
b)
y y y
R( y ) = f X ( x )dx = 2 (.001−.000001x ) dx = 2 .001x −.0000005x 2 = 2 .001y −.0000005 y 2
0 0 0

z z GH 310y JK dy
2
1000 1000
R= 0
R( y ) f Y ( y )dy = 2 0 (.001 y −.0000005 y 2 ) 9

= 9
LM
6 .001 y 4 .0000005 y 5
−
OP
1000
6
2.5 × 108 − 108 =.9
N Q
=
10 4 5 0
109
ln(.99)
c) R( t d ) = e− (1− R )αtd = e − (1−.8786 )(.01) td =.99 → td = = 10.050 yrs
(1−.9 )(.01)
7.13
β
GH θx JK GH 100 J
2

50 K
− −
R = P( X ≤ Y ) = P( X ≤ 100) = 1 − e = 1− e =.98168
− (1− R )αt − (1− .98168 ) 2 t − .03664 t − λt
R( t ) = e =e =e =e → λ =.03664 and MTTF = 1 / λ = 27.293 days
7.14
FG 13,500 − 10,000 IJ = Φ(35. ) =.99977
R = P ( X ≤ Y ) = P ( X ≤ 13,500) = Φ
H 1000 K
R (100) = (.99977)100 =.97726
25 25 200 −100
M OP = M −100 − FG −100J OP =.91837
25

Q 35 H 10 K Q
7.15 R = P( X ≤ Y ) = f X ( x )dx = dx =
0 0 ( x + 10) 3 ( x + 10) 2 0
2 2

7.16
R( t ) = e − (1− R )αt = e − (1−.992 )(1) t = e −.008 t → R( 25) = e −.008( 25 ) =.81873
− ln.95
R( td ) = e− .008 td =.95 → td = = 6.41 yrs
.008
7.17 Using equation 7.17:
F F IJ I F FG IJ I
GG GH
med y
K JJ
100
ln
med x
ln
20 GG H K JJ = Φ(160
R=Φ
2GG 2
s y + sx
=Φ
.6 +.82
2 JJ GGH JJK
. ) =.9452

H K
7.18 R = P ( X ≤ 2400) =
2400
f X ( x )dx =
2400 x
dx =
x2
M OP 2400

=.9216
0 0 3125
. × 10 6
2(3125
. × 106 ) Q 0

7-3
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

7.19

Flat Fading: R = 1 − Φ GH 10025− 75JK = 1 − Φb1g =.15866

for random loads: R( t ) = e− (1− R )αt = e − (.84134 )(.0006944 ) t → R( 24) =.98608

GH 1s ln 5 ×t 10 JK = FGH .761 ln 53××1010 JK = Fb.672g =.74857

12 12
Selective Fading: R = F 2
med
2
where s is determined from m = t med es /2

− (1− R )αt − (.25143 )(.005555 ) t

for random loads: R( t ) = e =e → R( 24) =.96703
Rtotal =.98608×.96703 =.95357

7.20
G 5877 J
1. 76

π 2 EI π 2 (16
. × 106 )(5.359 )
= 5877 lbs → R = 1 − e H 2500 K
−
a) Fc = = =.9889
L2 1202

b) μ = θ ⋅ Γ 1 + GH 1
β
JK = 2500ΓGH1 + 176
1
. K
J = 2225 → Fc = 3μ = 6675

G 6675 J
1. 76

= 1 − e H 2500 K
−
=.9964

7.21
1260
R = ΦGG 835 JJ = Φb2.71g =.9969
ln

GH .15 JK
R( t ) = R t / Δt =.99693 12t (t in yrs) → R(5) =.99693 60 =.8315

7.22 v =
LM 7.4(125) OP 1.1 1/ 4 .76

= 3131
N 240(.03) (.02) Q
2 .11 1.84
. ft / sec

7.23
⎛ 1 ⎛ 350 ⎞ ⎞
R = Φ⎜ ln ⎜ ⎟ ⎟ = Φ ( 3.24 ) = .9994
⎝ .33 ⎝ 120 ⎠ ⎠
R (90) = e − (1−.9994)(.5)(90) = .9734

⎛ ⎞
ln(300 / 40)
7.24 (a) From table 7.2: R = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (1.6368 ) = .949
⎝ .3592 + 1.1774 ⎠
2 2

7-4
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

⎛ ln(300 / 40) ⎞
R = Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (1.711) = .956
(b) ⎝ 1.1774 ⎠
R (30) = .95615 = .51

7.25
FG ln 40 / 34 J = Φ FG .1625J = Φ b.108g =.5438
R =Φ
H .9 + 12. K H 15. K
2 2

α = 6.2/31 = .2 per day = .008333 per hr.

R(t) = exp(- [1-.5438] x .008333 x t)
R(56 hr.) = exp(-.0038 x 56) = exp(-.2129) = .8082
MTTF = 1/.0038 = 263.16 hrs = 10.96 or 11 days

7.26
Stress (X) Strength (Y) Frequency of Load Static Dynamic
Reliability reliability
R R(100 days)
a. Constant = 600 Weibull with beta = Random (Poisson) - .951 .984
psi 2.1 and theta = 2500 averaging once
psi every 300 days
b. Exponential with Exponential with Periodic – every .9542 .096
mean = 120 volts mean = 2500 volts other day

c. lognormal with constant = 1200 lbs. Periodic – every 40 .966 .933

median = 600 lbs. days
s = .38

a. R = exp[-(600/2500)2.1 = .951; R(100) = exp[-(1-.951)/3] = .984

b. R = 2500 / (2500 + 120) = .9542; R(100) = .954250 = .096
⎛ 1 ⎛ 1200 ⎞ ⎞
c. R = Φ ⎜ ⎟ ⎟ = Φ (1.824 ) = .966; R (100) = .966 = .933
2
ln ⎜
⎝ .38 ⎝ 600 ⎠ ⎠

7.27 (a) RGMABX = 1 - exp(-25/5) = .99326; R(500) = exp[ - (1-.99326) 500/30] = .8938
⎛ ln ( 30 / 5 ) ⎞
RDELP1 = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ ( 2.1728 ) = .985 ; R(500) = .985 = .9272
5

⎝ .8 + .2 ⎠
2 2

RChass2(500) = exp(-500/20,000) = .9753

System reliability = (.8938) (.9277) (.9753) = .8087

(b) Low level redundancy: [1 – (1-.8938)2 ] [1 – (1-.9277)2 ] .9753 = .9592

High level redundancy: {1 - [1 – (.8938) (.9277) ]2 } .9753 = .9468

7.28 (a)

7-5
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

600
⎡ y e − x / 200 ⎤ 1 600
1
R= ∫300 ∫0 200
⎢ dx ⎥ dy = ∫ (1 − e − y / 200 ) dy
⎣ ⎦ 300 300
300
600
y e − y / 200
= + 200 = 2 + .0331914 − 1 − .1487534 = .8844
300 300 300
Or for the more for the discriminating student:
− x / 200 ∞
600 ⎡ 600 1 ⎤ e e − x / 200
R = 1.0 (1 − e−300 / 200 ) + ∫ ⎢⎣ ∫x 300 ⎥⎦ 200
dy dx + 0 ∫ 200 dx
300
600

600 ⎡ x ⎤ e − x / 200
= .7769 + ∫ ⎢⎣ 2 − 300 ⎥⎦ 200 dx = .7769 + .1075 = .8844
300

b. R(30) = .884430 = .025; c. R(30) = Exp[-(1-.8844) 30] = .0312; d. MTTF = 1/ (1-.8844) = 8.65
days

7.29
b b
2y y2
a. R = ∫ 2 dy = 2 = 1 − 1/ 4 = 3 / 4
b/2
b b b/2
5
b. R(110) = (3/4) = .237
c. R(110) = exp[-(1-3/4) (1/20) (110)] = .2528
b
⎡ y 1 ⎤ 2y
b b
⎡ y ⎤ 2y 2 y3 2
d.
R = ∫ ⎢ ∫ dx ⎥ 2 dy = ∫ ⎢ ⎥ 2 dy = 3 =
0 ⎣0
b ⎦b b b
0 ⎣ ⎦
3b 0 3

7.30
5, 000
tmed = = 4780
e.09/2
⎛ 1 10, 000 ⎞
(a ) R = Φ ⎜ ln ⎟ = .993
⎝ .3 4780 ⎠
(b) R(20) = .99340 = .757

7.31
σ 2 = (4780) 2 e.09 ( e.09 − 1) = 2,354,369.5; σ = 1534.4
⎛ 10, 000 − 5, 000 ⎞
(a ) R = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ ( 3.26 ) = .99944
⎝ 1534.4 ⎠
(b) R(20) = .99944 = .9778
40

Two distributions having the same mean and variance can generate significantly different results.

7.32 Random stress, constant strength, periodic loads

Static reliability: R = Pr{X< 1000} = Φ[ (1000 – 400) / 140] = Φ[ 4.285714] = 0.999990886
Dynamic reliability: R(8) = .999990886 (8 x 180) = 0.986961

7-6
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

7.33 Random stress, constant strength, random loads

Static reliability: R = Pr{X < 750} = 1 – exp[-750/250] = 0.950213
R(t) = Exp[-(1-0.950213)(5)t]; R(1/12) = Exp[-(1-0.950213)(5)/12] = 0.979469
∞
1 1
MTTF = ∫ e −(1− R )α t dt = = = 4.0 yr
0 (1 − R ) α (1 − .950213) 5
7.34 constant stress, random strength, periodic loads
Static reliability: R = Pr{Y>100} = 1 - Φ[ (1/.5) ln( 100/400) ] = 1 - Φ[-1.2] = .8857
R4 = .88574 = .6154

7.35 Static reliability: R = 1 / (1 – uy/ux ) = 1 / (1 – 400/200) = 2/3

R(t) = Exp[- (1 – 2/3)( .5) t] ; R(1) = Exp[- (1 – 2/3) (.5)] = .8465; MTTF = 6 yr

7.36 (a) s = pD/2t; E(s) = (25 x 290)/(2 x 1/16) = 58,000 psi and
STD(s) = (25 x 50)/(2 x 1/16) = 10,000 psi
R = Pr{s < 86,200} = Φ[(86,200 - 58,000)/10,000] = Φ[2.82] = .9976
⎛ ⎞
(b) R = Φ ⎜ 86, 200 − 58, 000 ⎟ = Φ ( 2.63) = .99573
⎝ 3900 + 10
2 8
⎠
(c)
⎛ (.5)(25)(290) ⎞
⎜ 86, 200 − t ⎟
Since Φ ( 3.09 ) = .999, ⎜ ⎟ = 3.09
⎜ 3900 + [(.5)(25)(50)] / t ⎟
2 2 2

⎝ ⎠
(.5)(25)(290)
86, 200 − = 3.09 3900 + [(.5)(25)(50)] / t 2
2 2

t
squaring both sides, multiplying through by t 2 , and using the quadratic formula results in t = .0663

7.37 (a) h = 90 x 10-4 x 25 x 34 / (82 x 450) = 2.073 x 10-4 mm per application. Time to failure =
2.5 / (15 x 2.073 x 10-4) = .0804 x 104 = 804 days.
(b) For platinum: h = 130 x 10-4 x 25 x 24 / (100 x 450) = 1.733 x 10-4 mm per application. Time
to failure = 2.5 / (15 x 1.733 x 10-4) = 962 days.

7.38 Since F = ma = 20 kg x 9.81 m/sec2 = 196.2 Newtons, then

s = 196.2 N / [π x (.8 x 10-3 m)2 ] / 4 = 390.33 MPa. And R = 1 – Fy(s) = exp[-390.33/807] =
.6165

7.39 Let Y = a RV, the stress on a single member and X = a RV, the load placed on the platform.
X is normal with μx = 18,000 and σx = 3600.
Then Y = [3600/4 + X/4] / 9 with μy = 100 + μx /36 = 600 psi and σy = σx / 36 = 100; therefore
⎛ 2100 − 600 ⎞
R = Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ ( 2.94 ) = .99836
⎝ 500 + 100 ⎠
2 2

7.40 (a) This is case 1, k = 600 psi. R = 1 – exp[-(600/190)2.15] = .99992859

Rn = .99 or n log R = log .99; n = log .99 / log R = 1407.37 landings or 469 days

7-7
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

(b) R(90|469) = .99992859559 x 3/ .99 = .998; F(499) = 1 - . 998 = .002

7.41
∞ ∞
xγ −1e − x /α 1 xγ −1e− x (1/α +1/ μ )
R = ∫ ( e− x / μ ) dx = γ ∫0 Γ (γ ) dx
0
α Γ (γ )
γ
α
γ
⎛ αμ ⎞
αμ ∞
k γ xγ −1e − x / k ⎜α+μ ⎟ ⎛ μ ⎞
Letting k = , R= γ ∫ γ dx = ⎜ ⎟ =⎜ ⎟
+μ α 0 k Γ (γ ) ⎜ α ⎟ ⎝ μ +α ⎠
⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
For the case where α = 60, γ = 1.3, and R = .99, μ = 140,

⎛ μ ⎞
1.3
μ 20 .991/1.3 )
⎜ ⎟ = .99, = .991/1.3
, μ = ( μ + 20 ) 991/1.3
or μ = = 2577
⎝ μ + 20 ⎠ μ + 20 1 − .991/1.3

7.42 Find α first and then compute R. The mode is the most frequent or likely value.
40 = 35 + .5772157α ; α = 8.66; R = F (70) = exp[−e − 70−35 /8.66 ] = .9826

7.43 The stress distribution is Weibull with parameters β = 2 and θx and the strength
distribution is Weibull with parameters β = 2 and θy. Therefore from Eq. 7.13,
∞ ∞
2 − ( y /θ y ) 2 1 − ⎡ ( y /θ ) 2 + ( y / θ y ) 2 ⎤
R = ∫ ⎡1 − e − ( y /θ x ) ⎤ 2 ye dy = 1 − 2 ∫ e ⎣ x ( 2 y ) dy
2
⎦
⎣ ⎦θ θ
0 y y 0

⎛ 1 1 ⎞ ⎛ θ x2 + θ y2 ⎞
let u = ( y / θ x ) 2 + ( y / θ y ) 2 ; then du = 2 y ⎜ 2 + 2 ⎟ dy = 2 y ⎜ 2 2 ⎟ dy
⎜θ ⎟ ⎜ θ θ ⎟
⎝ x θy ⎠ ⎝ x y ⎠
θ x2θ y2 ∞
θ x2 θy 2

∫ e du = 1 −
−u
R = 1− = 2
θ y2 (θ x2 + θ y2 ) 0 (θ x + θ y ) θ x + θ y2
2 2

7-8