Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

CHAPTER 2

2.1
1 1
a) R(100 ) = =.91 and R(1000) = =.5
(.001)(100 ) + 1 (.001)(1000 ) + 1
− dR( t ) 1 − d ((.001t + 1)−1 ) 1
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ =.001(.001t + 1)−2 ⋅ (.001t + 1)
dt R( t ) dt (.001t + 1)−1
.001(.001t + 1) .001
= =
(.001t + 1)2 .001t + 1
( t ) is decreasing because ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.

2.2
− 0t λ ( t ')dt ' −.4 0t t 'dt '
= e−.2t ' |t = e−.2t
2 2
a) R( t ) = e =e
0
2
F (1 / 12 ) = 1 − R(1 / 12 ) = 1 − e −.2(1/12 ) =.00139
2 − ln(.95)
b) R( t ) = e − .2 t =.95 → −.2t 2 = ln(.95) → t= =.506 yrs
.2

z z
2.3
100 100
a) R( t ) = f ( t ′ )dt ′ = .01dt ′ =.01t ′ 100
t =.01(100 − t ) = 1−.01t 0 ≤ t ≤ 100
t t

− dR( t ) 1 f (t ) .01
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = = 0 ≤ t ≤ 100
R( t ) R( t ) 1−.01t

z z
dt
100 100
c) MTTF = R( t ) dt = (1−.01t )dt = t 100 2 100 2
0 −.005t 0 = 100 −.005(100 ) = 50 days
0 0

d) σ 2 = z 100 2
0
t f ( t )dt − ( MTTF )2 =.01 0 t 2 dt − 502 =.033 t 3 z 100 100

0
− 502 = 8333
. (days)2

σ = σ 2 = 28.9 days
e) R( tmedian ) = 1−.01t median =.5 → .01tmedian .5 → tmedian 50 days

2.4

z 3
z M
1 3 OP 100

Q
1000 1000
a) R( t ) = t
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = t
t ′ 2 dt ′ = t'
109 109 t

c h
3
1 t
= 10003 − t 3 = 1 − 9 0 ≤ t ≤ 1000 hrs
109 10
106 1
F (100 ) = 1 − R(100 ) = 1 − (1 − 1003 / 109 ) = = 3

z z
9
10 10
1000 3 1000 3 1000 3
b) MTTF = t ⋅ f ( t ) dt = t 3dt = t4 = 10004 − 0 = 750 hrs
0 109 0 10 ⋅ 4 9 0 109 ⋅ 4
t3 t3
c) R( t ) = 1 − =.99 → =.01 → t = 3 107 = 215.443 hrs
109 109

2.5

2-1
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

a) R(50 ) = e- .001(50)
=.8
− (.001t )1/ 2
− d (e ) 1 1 1/ 2 1 .0005
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ − (.001t )1/ 2
== (.001t )−1/ 2 (.001)e − (.001t ) ⋅ − (.001t )1/ 2 =
dt e 2 e .001t
( t ) is decreasing because ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.
R(T0 + t ) R(50 + 10 ) R( 60) e − .001( 60 )
c) R( t / T0 ) = → R(50 / 10) = = = =.865
R(T0 ) R(10 ) R(10 ) e − .001(10)

R (t + 10) e − .001( t +10)

d) R (t / 10) = = − .001(10) =.95
R (10) e
2
ln .859596
e− .001( t +10)
= .95e − .001(10)
= .859596 → t= − 10 = 12.9 hrs
.001
2.6
10 10 10 10
a) R( t ) = f ( t ′ )dt ′ = (.2−.02t ′ ) dt ′ =.2 t ′ t
−.01 t ′ 2
t t t
2 2
= ( 2−.2t ) − (1−.01t ) = 1−.2t +.01t 0 ≤ t ≤ 10 yrs
f (t ) .2 −.02t .2(1 .1t ) .2
λ (t ) = = = =
R (t ) 1−.2t +.01t 2
(1−.1t ) 2
1−.1t
( 0 ) =.2 and ( t → 10) = ∞ so the hazard rate is, in fact, increasing.
b) MTTF = R (t ) = z z 10

c) R( tmedian ) = 1−.2tmed +.01tmed

2
=.5
10

0
(1−.2t +.01t 2 )dt = t
→
10
0
2
−.1 t 2
.01tmed
10

0
+.00333 t 3
−.2tmed +.5 = 0
10

0
= 10 − 10 + 3.33 = 3.33 yrs

.2 ± ( −.2)2 − 4(.01)(.5) .2±.1414

t( median ) = = = 17.07,2.93
2(.01) 2(.01)
t( median ) is 2.93 years. (17.07 is outside range of values for t.)
d) f ( tmod e ) = MAX [ f ( t )]
0≤ t ≤10
f(t) is linearly decreasing: f(0) = .2 and f(10)=0. Therefore, the mode occurs at t=0 yr.

e) σ 2 =
10
t 2 f (t )dt − MTTF 2 =
10
t 2 (.2 −.02t )dt − 3.332 = M .2t 3 .02t 4
−
OP 10

− 3.332
0 0 3 4 Q 0

= (66.67 − 50) − 0 − 1109

. = 558
. → σ = σ = 558
. = 2.36 yrs
2

2.7
100 100
a) R(1) = = =.826
(1 + 10 )2 121

z z OP = 0 − FG −100 IJ = 100
∞

MN 200(t −′ +210)
∞ ∞ −2
R( t ) =
t
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = 200
t
( t ′ + 10)−3 dt ′ =
t Q H (t + 10) K (t + 10)
2 2

b) MTTF = R( t )dt = 100 z 0

∞
z ∞

0
( t + 10 )−2 dt = 100M
( t + 10 )
N −1
−1 ∞
OP = −100 O = 0 − (−10) = 10 yrs
0Q MN t + 10 PQ
∞

2-2
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

100 100 100

c) R( t ) = =.95 → t + 10 = → t= − 10 =.26 yrs
( t + 10 )2 .95 .95
d) The failure rate is DFR because ( 0 ) =.2 and ( t → ∞ ) = 0 .
200
f ( t ) ( t + 10 )3 200( t + 10 )2 2
λ (t ) = = = =
R( t ) 100 100( t + 10 )3 t + 10
( t + 10)2
e) A one year burn-in period will improve the reliability because the failure rate is decreasing.
100
R(1 + 1) R( 2) ( 2 + 10 )2 112
R(1 / 1) = = = = 2 =.84
R(1) R(1) 100 12
2
(1 + 10)

z f (t ′ )dt ′ = z 1bdt ′ = LMN 1b t ′OPQ

t
t t t
2.8 F ( t ) = 0 0
= , 0≤t ≤b
0 b
t b−t
R( t ) = 1 − F ( t ) = 1 − =
b b
1
f (t ) b 1
λ(t ) = = b = = , IFR
R( t ) b − t b( b − t ) b − t
b

z z LM OP MMFGH b IJ OP
b
b b b−t 1 t2 1 b2 2b 2 − b 2 b
K QP
2
MTTF = R( t )dt = dt = bt − = − −0 = =
0 0 b b N2 Q 0
b 2 2b 2
b − t med 1
R( tmedian ) = = b
b 2
There is no mode because all failure times are equally likely.

GH JK M OPQ − b4 = b3 − b4 = 12b → σ =
b

z z
2
t2 b t3 2 2 2 2
b
σ = t f ( t )dt − MTTF =
2 b 2
0
2 b
0
dt − =
b 2 3b 0
12

2.9
t t 20 − t 1
F (t ) =
= ; R( t ) = ; λ(t ) =
b 20 20 20 − t
20 20 20
MTTF = = 10 yrs; tmedian = = 10 yrs; σ = = 5.77 yrs
2 2 12

2.10
a) Wear-out is indicated by an increasing failure rate.
− dR( t ) 1 − d (1 − t / t0 )2 1 1
λ (t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ = [−2(1 − t / t0 )( −1 / t0 )] ⋅
dt R( t ) dt (1 − t / t0 )2 (1 − t / t0 )2
2 2 2
= = Since λ ( 0 ) = and λ ( t → t0 ) = ∞, λ ( t ) is IFR.
t0 (1 − t / t0 ) t0 − t t0

2-3
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

F t I F t I F −t IJ OP
z z
t0

R( t ) dt = G1 − J dt = MG1 − J G
2 3
t0 t0
b) MTTF =
H t K MH t K H 3 K PQ
0
0 0
0 0

LMF t I O
0

GMH1 − t JK − (1 − 0) PP = t3
3
− t0 3
= 0 0
3
N 0
Q
c) R( t ) = (1 − t / 2000 )2 =.90 → t = 2000(1 − .9 ) = 102.63 hrs

2.11
R(T0 + t ) ( t + T0 + 1)−3/ 2
R( t / T0 ) = = where t = 2, T0 =.5
R(T0 ) (T0 + 1)−3/ 2
R( 2.5) (35 . )−3/ 2
R( 2 /.5) = = =.28
R(.5) (15 . )−3/ 2
.28-.19
An improvement of = 47% is obtained with a 6 month burn - in.
.19

2.12

R( t ) = e z
0
t
− λ ( t ′ ) dt ′
=e z 0
t
− at ′dt ′
=e
− a t ′2 / 2
t
0 = e − at
2
/2
a > 0 and t ≥ 0
2
− at / 2
dR( t ) d (e ) 2 2
f (t ) = − =− − e − at /2
( − at ) = ate − at /2
dt dt
2
R( t median ) = e− ( atmed )/ 2 =.5
2
atmed
− = ln(.5)
2
−2 ln(.5) 118 .
t median = =
a a
The mode is found by setting the first derivative of f(t) equal to 0 and solving for t.
2
df ( t ) d ( e − ( atmed )/ 2 ) 2 2 2
= = a[te − at / 2 ( − at ) + e − at / 2 ] = e − at / 2 [− at 2 + 1] = 0
dt dt
[− at 2 + 1] = 0
t mod e = 1 / a

2.13
ln R( t1 ) − ln R( t2 ) ln(1 − t13 / 109 ) − ln(1 − t23 / 109 )
AFR = = where t1 = 0 and t 2 = 500
t2 − t1 t2 − t1
ln(1) − ln(1 − 5003 / 109 ) 0 − ln(.875)
= = =.000267 failures / hr
500 − 0 500

2.14

R( t ) =.1 z t
∞
(1+.05t ′ )−3 dt ′ =.1
LM (1+.05t ′ ) OP
N −2(.05) Q
−2 ∞

t
d
= 0 − −(1+.05t )−2 = (1+.05t )−2 i
2-4
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

R(10 + 1) (1+.05(11))−2
R(10 / 1) = = =.459
R(1) (1+.05(1))−2

z z OP FG IJ
∞

MN (1+.05t )−1 1
∞ ∞
MTTFbefore = R( t )dt =
0 0
(1+.05t )−2 dt =
−.05 Q 0
= 0− −
H .05 K
= 20

∞ 1 ∞ 1 ∞
MTTFafter = R (t / T0 )dt = R (t ) dt = (1+.05t ) −2 dt
T0 R (T0 ) T0 (1+.05(1)) −2 1

= (105
∞
(1+.05t ) dt = (105
(1+.05t ) −1
−2
M OP ∞

= 0− − M . )2
(105 OP= 21
Q Q
2 2
. ) . )
1 −(.05) 1
.05(1+.05(1))
2.15
( t ) is decreasing.
R(t) is decreasing as R(0) = 1 and R( ∞ ) = 0.
f(t) = λ (t)R(t).
Since λ ( t ) and R( t ) are decreasing, f( t ) is decreasing and the mode must occur at t = 0.

2.16

R( t ) = e z0
t
− λ ( t ′ ) dt ′
=e
−a z
0
t
et ′ dt ′
=e
− a et ′
t

0
=e
− a et −1
=e
a 1− e t

t t t
f ( t ) = λ ( t ) R( t ) = ( ae t )( ea − ae ) = ( ae t )( ea )( e − ae ) = ae( t + a − ae )

( x + c) n +1 dx
∫ ( x + c) dx = , n ≠1; ∫ x + c = ln ( x + c )
n
2.17 Using
n +1
−1 ∞
∞ a a ( t '+ a ) a 10
(a) R (t ) = ∫
t
( t '+ a )
2
dt ' =
−1
=
t+a
; R (t ) =
t + 10
; R(8) = .55
t

10 10
(b) R (t ) = = .95; t = − 10 = .526 yr = 6.3 mo.
t + 10 .95

(c) R(5|5) = .75 R(10) / R(5) = (10/20) / (10/15) = 15/20 = .75

(d) F(90 days) = 1 - 10 / (10 + .2465) = .024

a
(t + a)
2
1
(e) λ (t ) = =
a t+a
(t + a )
(f) R(t) = .5 = a / (t + a) or tmed = (a / .5) – a = 2a –a = a

∞
a ∞
(g) MTTF = ∫ t + a dt = a ln(t + a)
0
0
→ ∞ ; does not exist

2-5
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

2.18
ka k k
(a ) f (t ) = ; (b ) λ ( t ) = → DFR
(t + a )
k +1
t+a
− k +1 ∞
∞ ak ak (t + a ) − a k a − k +1 a
(c ) MTTF = ∫ dt = = =
(t + a ) −k + 1 −k + 1 k −1
0 k
0

⎛ 1 ⎞
(d )tmed = a ⎜⎜ k − 1⎟⎟
⎝ .5 ⎠
2.19
dR(t ) 3t 2
( a ) f (t ) = = 3 , 0≤t ≤k
dt k
3t ⎛ t 3 ⎞
2
3t 2
(b ) λ ( t ) = 3 / ⎜ 1 − 3 ⎟ = 3 3
k ⎝ k ⎠ k −t
k
k 3t 3 3t 4 3
(c) MTTF = ∫ 3
dt = 3
= k
0 k 4k 0 4
t3
(d ) 1 − = .5 or tmed = k 3 .5 = .7937k
k3

2.20 rewrite f(t) = .003(10-t)2

(a) R(t) = .001(10 – t)3 ; R(1) = .729
(b) .001(10-t)3 = .90; solving for t = 10 – (.9/.001)1/3 = .345 yr.
(c) λ(t) = f(t) /R(t) = 3/(10-t); IFR
10
(d) MTTF = R(t ) dt = .001(10 − t ) dt = 2.5 yr. ; R (2.5) = .422
∫ ∫
3

0
(e) F(1/12) = .02479; R(11/12 | 1/12) = .729/.9752 = .7475

a
a
⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞ t2 t3
2.21 (a) MTTF = ⎜1 − ∫⎝
0
+ 2 ⎟ dt = t − + 2
a a ⎠ a 3a
=a/3
0

⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞
⎜ 1 − + 2 ⎟ = .5; t − 2at + .5a = 0
2 2

⎝ a a ⎠
(b)
2a ± 4 a 2 − 2a 2 a 2
t= =a± = a (1 ± .7071) = .293a
2 2
Why not the positive root?

(c) R(a/3) = 4/9 = .444

2 / a − 2t / a 2 2(a − t ) 2
(d) λ (t ) = = = ; IFR
1 − 2t / a − 2t 2 / a 2 ( a − t )2 ( a − t )
(e) R(1) = .81; R(1|1) = R(2) /R(1) = .64 / .81 = .79

2.22 (a) R(t) = 1 - .000064t3 ; R(15) = .784; (b) F(10) – F(2) = .000064(1000 - 8) = .063488

2-6
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

.000064t 3 = .5
(c)
tmed = 3 .5 / .000064 = 19.8425 yr.

(d) λ(t) = .000192t2 / (1 - .000064t3) ; IFR

25
(e) MTTF = ∫ (1 − .000064t )dt = [t − .000016t 4 ]025 = 25 − .000016(25) 4 = 18.75 yr.
3

0
(f) R(15) / R(10) = .784 / .936 = .8376

25
1 1
( t − .000016t 4 )
25
MTTF (10) = ∫
R (10) 10
(1 − .000064t 3 )dt =
.936 10
(g)
1
= ⎡15 − .000016 ( 254 − 104 )⎤ = 9.52 yr
.936 ⎣ ⎦

20
1 1
R (10) 10∫
2.23 MTTF (10) = (1 − .000125t 3 )dt = (5.3125) = 6.07 yr.
.875
∞
∞
225 225 225
2.24 MTTF = ∫ ( t + 15 )
0
2
dt =
−1( t + 15 )
=
(15 )
= 15 yr.
0
∞
1 ⎛ ⎞
∞
1 225 225 1
MTTF (10) = ∫ dt = ⎜⎜ ⎟ = [0 + 9] = 25 yr
R (10) 10 ( t + 15 ) 2
.36 ⎝ −1( t + 15) ) ⎟⎠ .36
10
λ(t) = 2 / (t+15) ; DFR

2.25
⎡ t ⎤
R (t ) = exp ⎢ − ∫ (1 + .5t '+ 10 / t ') dt '⎥ = exp[−(t + .25t 2 + 10 ln t − 1.25)]
⎣ 1 ⎦
dR (t )
f (t ) = − = (1 + .5t + 10 / t ) exp[−(t + .25t 2 + 10 ln t − 1.25)]
dt

2-7