Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

CHAPTER 4

4.1
β
GtJ G 100 J
1. 4

R( t ) = e H θ K R(100) = e H 550 K =.912

− −
a) →
−G
IJ t. 99 β

b) B1 → R (t.99 =.99 )=e H θ K

1/ β
t.99 = θ ( − ln(.99)) = 550( − ln(.99))1/1.4 = 20.575 days
c) MTTF = ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / ) = 550 ⋅ (1 1 / 14
. ) 550 . ) 550 .910572 = 500.81 days
(171
{
d) σ = θ Γ (1 + 2 / β ) − Γ (1 + 1 / β )
2 2 2
} = 550 {Γ (1 + 2 / 14. ) − Γ(1 / 14. ) } = 550 {Γ(2.43) − Γ(171
2 2
. ) }
2 2

= 5502 1267032
. m
− (.910572)2 = 13246192
. r → σ = σ 2 = 36395
. days
e) t.5 = t med = θ ( − ln(.5))1/ β = 550( − ln(.5))1/1.4 = 423.32 days
f) t mod e = θ (1 − 1 / β )1/ β = 550(1 − 1 / 1.4)1/1.4 = 224.77 days
g) t d = θ ( − ln R )1/ β = 550( − ln(.90))1/1.4 = 110.22 days

4.2
β
GH θt JK −G J
.6
100

R(100) = e H 800 K =.750

−
a) R( t ) = e →
.6
G 300 J
R (100 + 200) e H 800 K
−

b) R (100 / 200) = = =.887

R( 200) F 200 JI .6
−G
e H 800 K

4.3 The power supply has a Weibull failure distribution with β=2.1 and θ = M∑ (1 / θ )
3
β OP −1/ β

Q
i .
i =1

LF 1 IJ + FG 1 IJ + FG 1 IJ
θ = MG
2.1 2.1
OP
2 .1 −1/ 2 .1

MNH 12000K H 18500K H 21500K

= 9328.98 hrs
PQ
MTTF = ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / ) = 9328.98(.885633) = 8262.05 hrs
β
Gt J
R( t d ) = e H θ K =.9
d
−
→ t d = θ ⋅ ( − ln(.9))1/ 2.1 = 9328.98( − ln(.9 ))1/ 2.1 = 3194.79 hrs
4.4
β
GH t − t JK GH 150−50 JK
1. 54
0
− −
a) R( t ) = e θ → R(150 ) = e 8500 =.9989
b) MTTF = t 0 + ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / ) = 50 + 8500 ⋅ (1 + 1 / 154
. ) = 50 + 8500⋅.9 = 7700 hrs
c) t med = t0 + θ ( − ln.50)1/ β = 50 + 8500(.69315)1/1.54 = 6749.8 hrs

o
d) σ 2 = θ 2 Γ (1 + 2 / β ) − Γ (1 + 1 / β )
2
t = 8500 oΓ(1 + 2 / 154
. ) − .9 t
2 2

l
= 85002 Γ ( 2.30)−.81 = 25772442 q → σ = σ 2 = 5076.66 hrs
e) t d = t0 + θ ( − ln R )1/ β → t.98 = 50 + 8500( − ln(.98))1/1.54 = 724.58 hrs

4-1
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.5 For 2 redundant components,

R( t ) = 1 − 1 − e− b t /θ g R(100 ) = 1 − 1 − e− b100/ 550g
β 2 1. 4 2
→ =.992

FG IJ M GH 10t JK OPP MM GH 101 JK OPP

1. 8 1. 8
.8

→ R( t ) = e NM
− .07 t + − .07+
18
. t Q R(1) = e N Q =.9177
4.6 λ ( t ) =.07 +
10 10 H K →
LM − .07 t med + GH t10 JK
med
1. 8 OP
For tmed , set R( tmed ) = e MN PQ =.50
FG t IJ 1.8

and solve for t med : .07t med +

H 10 K =.6931 → t med = 5.31 yrs, by trial and error
med

β 1.3
GtJ G 100 J
R( t ) = e H θ K R(100) = e H 10000 K =.95
−n −n
4.7 →

GH 10000 JK
1.3
100
−n = ln(.95)

− ln(.95)
n=
FG 100 IJ
1.3 = 20.43 → 20 units

H 10000 K
10000
MTTF = θ ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / β ) = ⋅ Γ (177
. ) = 998177
. ⋅.923763 = 922.08 hrs
201/1.3

4.8 Failure time is Weibull with =1.5 and =500.

GH JK
1.5
50
−
a) R (50) = e 500
=.96887
b) td = θ ( − ln R )1/ β → t.90 = 500( − ln(.90))2/ 3 = 11154
. hrs
c) MTTF = ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / ) = 500 ⋅ (1 2 / 3) 500 .903 4515 . hrs
GH 100 J
1. 5

500 K
−
R (50 + 50) e
d) R (50 / 50) = = =.9438
R (50) .96887
e)

GH 500t JK
1/ 2

λ ( t ) =.003 +.002

LMFG t IJ 1.5 OP LMFG 50 IJ 1.5 OP

−
H 500 K + .002 t
H 500 K − + .002( 50 )
R( t ) = e NM QP → R(50 ) = e NM QP =.87667

4-2
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.9
RS 200 − μ ≤ z ≤ 270 − μ UV =.90 = Pl-1.645 ≤ z ≤ 1.645q
a) P
T σ σ W
200 − 270
= −1645
. and = 1645
.
σ σ
200 - μ 270 - μ 200 - μ
σ =- =-
1.645 1.645 1.645
200 - 235
μ = 235 = MTTF → σ =- = 2128
.
1645
.
FG 210 − μ J = 1 − ΦFG 210 − 235J = 1 − Φ(−117
b) R ( 210) = 1 − Φ
H σ K H 2128. K . ) = 1−.121 =.879

c) R( td ) = 1 − Φ GH t 2128
− 235
d
.
JK =.99 → Φ GH t 2128
d − 235
.
JK =.01
t d − 235
= −2.32 → t d = ( −2.32)2128
. + 235 = 185.63 hrs
2128
.

R(10 + 200) R( 210 ) .879 .879

d) R(10 / 200 ) =
R( 200 )
=
F
1 − ΦG
200 − 235I 1 − Φ( −164
JK
= =
. ) .9495
=.926
H 2128.

4.10
a) t R = t med e sz1− R → t.98 = 2236e.41( −2.05 ) = 964.82

b) R( t ) = 1 − Φ GH 1s ln t t IJK med

R(5 weeks) = R(840 hrs) = 1 − Φ GH .411 ln 2236

840
JK = 1 − Φ( −2.39) =.99158
Therefore probability of failure = 1 - .99158 = .00842
s2 .412
c) MTTF = t med e 2 = 2236e 2 = 2432.06 hrs
s2 s2 2 .412 2
d) σ = t
2 2
med e ( e − 1) = 2236 e ( e.41 − 1) = 1082754.22 → σ = 1040.55 hrs
t med 2236
e) t mode = 2 = 2 = 1890.02 hrs
es e.41

4-3
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.11
a) R( t ) = e b g
− t /θ β 2 .1
→ R(5000) = e − ( 5000/12000 ) =.8529
b) B1 → R (t.99 ) =.99
t.99 = θ ( − ln(.99))1/ β = 12000( − ln(.99))1/ 2.1 = 1342.27 hrs
B.1 → t.999 =.999
t.999 = 12000( − ln(.999))1/ 2.1 = 447.42 hrs
c) MTTF = ⋅ Γ(1 + 1 / ) = 12000 (148
. ) 12000 .88574 10628.96 hrs
o
σ = θ Γ (1 + 2 / β ) − Γ (1 + 1 / β )
2 2 2
t = 12000 oΓ(195 . ) t
. ) − Γ (148
2 2

m
= 120002 .979881 − (.885747 )2 = 28127988.29 r → σ = 5303.58 hrs
1/ β
t.50 = tmed = θ ( − ln(.5)) = 12000( − ln(.5)) 1/ 2 .1
= 10078.22 hrs
d) 1/ β
t mod e = θ (1 − 1 / β ) = 12000(1 − 1 / 2.1) 1/ 2.1
= 8819.71 hrs
GH 12000 JK
2 .1
8760
−
e) F (1 yr) = F (8760 hrs) = 1 - R (8760) = 1 − e =.4033

4.12 without burn - in: t.90 = 2450( − ln(.90 ))1/.86 = 178.96

R( t 30) R( t 30) R( t 30)
with burn - in: R( t / 30) = =
R(30) F 30 IJ .86 = .9776 =.90
−G
e H 2450 K
R( t + 30) =.90(.9776) .8798
FG t +30 IJ. 86

eH 2450 K =.8798 → t = 2450( − ln(.8798 ))1/.86 − 30 = 194.53 days

Burn-in testing increases design life by 194.53-178.96=15.57 days; may not be worth it.

4.13

a) The 4 belt system has a Weibull failure distribution with β=1.34 & θ = M∑
4
(1 / θ i ) β
OP −1/ β

Q
.
i =1

b
θ = 1 / 2500 g + b1 / 3400g + b1 / 8000g + b1 / 6100g
1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 −1/1.34
= 1399.757 hrs

F (72) = 1 − R (72) = 1 − e − b 72 /1399.757 g

1. 34
= 1−.981 =.019
b)
= 1− e b
R( 72 4000) − 4072 /1399 .757 g + b 4000 /1399 .757 g
1. 34 1. 34
F (72 / 4000) = 1 − R (72 / 4000) = 1 − =.094
R ( 4000)
β
+ ( T0 /θ ) β
where R (t / T0 ) = e − (( t +T0 )/θ )

4-4
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.14
GtJ
β
−2 G J
β
G 5000 J −2 G J
2 .1 2 .1
t 5000

Rp ( t ) = 2e H θ K − e H θ K Rp (5000) = 2e H 12000 K − e H 12000 K =.9784

− −
a) →
b) MTTF = θ ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / β ) ⋅ [2 − 2−1/ β ] = 12000 ⋅ Γ(148
. ) ⋅ [1281
. ] = 136171
. hrs
GH 12000 JK GH 12000 JK
2 .1 2 .1
8670 8670
− −2
c) F (1 yr) = F (8760 hrs) = 1 − R(8760) = 2e −e =.163
GH JK G JK
2 .1 2 .1
t t

−e H
− −2
d) Find t , such that 2e 12000 12000
=.99 → t = 4100 hrs

4.15

a) R( td ) = 1 − Φ GH t θ− μ JK = 1 − ΦGH t 2−.510JK =.99

d d

Φ GH t θ− μ JK =.01
d
→ z = −164
. =
td − 10
2.5
td = 2.5( −12.325) + 10 = 4.19 days

FG 1 − 10J = 1 − Φ(−3.6) = 1−.00016 =.99984

b) i) R (1) = 1 − Φ
H 2.5 K
ii) R (2) = 1 − ΦG
F 2 − 10J = 1 − Φ(−3.2) = 1−.00069 =.99931
H 2.5 K
iii) R (5) = 1 − ΦG
F 5 − 10J = 1 − Φ(−2) = 1−.02275 =.97725
H 2.5 K
F 6 − 10IJ
1 − ΦG
c) R (1 / 5) =
R (1 + 5) R ( 6)
= =
H 2.5 K = 1 − Φ(−16. ) = .94520 =.9672
R (5) R (5) .97725 .97725 .97725

4.16

ln G
GH 125 H t JK JK
1 1000 1000
a) R(1000 ) = 1 − Φ → tmed = = 7816.60 cycles
. med e1.25( −1.645 )
s2 1.252
b) MTTF = t med e2 = 7816.6e 2 = 17077.39 cycles (high variability)
s2 s2 2 1.252 1.252
σ =t
2 2
e ( e − 1) = 7816.6 e (e − 1) = 1,099,124,041 ; σ = 33,153 cycles
FG 1 lnFG 2000 IJ IJ
med

c) R (1000 / 1000) =
R (2000)
=
1− Φ
H 1.25 H 7816.6K K = 1 − Φ(−109
. )
=.9075
R(1000) .95 .95

4-5
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.17 It is Weibull with β = 2 and θ = 1 × 105 :

a) λ ( t ) = 2 × 10 −10 t = at b where a = 2 × 10 −10 and b = 1
b= −1 → = b +1= 2
β 1FG IJ β β 2
a=
H K
θ θ β −1
= 2 →θ =
θ a
=
2 × 10−10
= 1 × 105

FG IJ where β = 2 and θ = 1 × 10
β t
β −1
λ ( t ) = 2 × 10−10 t =
HK
5

θ θ
b) MTTFB = ⋅ Γ b1 + 1 / g = 100000 (15
. ) 100000 .886227 88622.7 hrs
MTTFA = 1 / = 1/.000011 = 909091
. hrs → Based only on MTTF , A preferred.

c) R( 2 / 3 yr ) = R(5840 hrs)
5 2
RB (5840) = e− ( 5840/1×10 ) =.997 ; RA (5840 ) = e− (.000011)( 5840 ) =.938
Based only on warrantly costs, motor B is preferred.
d)
5 2
e − (10×5840/1×10 )
RB (9 / 1) = =.713 ; RA (9 / 1) = e− (.000011)9( 5840 ) =.561
.9966
Motor B will reduce replacement costs.
FG t J + FG t J
β β
−
HθK Hθ K
1 2
ln R (t1 ) − ln R (t 2 ) 1 t 2β − t1β
4.18 average failure rate = AFR = = = ⋅
t 2 − t1 t 2 − t1 θ β t 2 − t1

4.19 R( t ) = 1 − Φ GH t −σ μ JK → R(100 ) = 1 − Φ GH 10012− μ JK =.99

ΦG
H 12 JK =.01
100 − μ 100 − μ
→ z = −2.32 =
12
= 100 + 12(2.32) = 127.84 hrs

4.20
2
a) tmed = MTTF ⋅ e − s /2
= 3600e −2 = 487.21 hrs
FG 1 lnFG 100 IJ IJ = 1 − Φ( −.79) =.785
R (100) = 1 − Φ
H 2 H 487.21K K
F 1 F 200 IJ IJ
1 − ΦG lnG
b) R (100 / 100) =
R( 200)
=
H 2 H 487.21K K =.67/.785 =.85
R(100) .785
F 1 F 300 I I
1 − ΦG lnG
c) R (100 / 200) =
R (300)
=
H 2 H 487.21JK JK =.888
R( 200) .67
d) This is a decreasing failure rate (DFR) so do not replace until a failure occurs. Operating
past the maximum point on the hazard rate curve:

4-6
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.21
a)
b g b g
MTTF = θ ⋅ Γ 1 + 1 / β = 5.6419 ⋅ Γ 1 + 1 / 2 = 5.6419 ⋅ Γ (15
. ) = 5.6419⋅.886227 = 5 yrs
b)
2
F (12 months) = F (1 year) = 1 − R (1) = 1 − e − (1/ 5.6429) =.031
c)
2
R (1 + 1) R (2) e − ( 2 / 5.6419) .882
F (1 / 1) = 1 − R(1 / 1) = 1 − = 1− = 1− =.1 − =.09
R (1) R (1) .969 .969
d)
Expected value of first year warranty: $500(.031)=$15.5
Expected value of second year warranty: $500(.09)=$45
Warranty costs: $25 and $40 respectively.
First year warranty should not be purchased. Second year warranty should be purchased.
e)
Value if both must be purchased: ($500)(1-R(2))=($500)(1-.88)=$60
Warranty costs: $25+$40=$65
Warranties should not be purchased.

4.22

Knotsew Dell Fye Ima Goode

(a) R(10,000 hours) .961 .981 .948

(b) MTTF 91,142 (91,057) 97,454 126,666

(c) The mode 40,867 28,915 0

(d) The median time to failure 76,967 65,000 111,299

4-7
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

(e) The 90 percent design life 20,040 20,448 19,500

(f) The reliability for the next .9368 .92215 .947

10,000 hours if it has survived the
first 10,000 hours.
(g) characterize the hazard rate IFR IFR/DFR IFR
function as DFR, CFR, or IFR

4.23 Weibull distribution with beta = 1.2 and theta = 10,000

(a) R(1,000 hrs) .9388
(b) MTTF (in hrs) 9406
(c) The mode (in hours) 2247
(d) The median time to failure 7368
(e) The 90 percent design life 1533
(f) The conditional reliability to get to
1000 hours given it survives 500 hr. .965
(g) characterize the hazard rate function
as DFR, CFR, IFR, or combination
IFR
(h) Average failure rate from 0 to 5,000
8.71 x 10-5
hrs

4.24 Lognormal distribution with tmed = 10,000 and s = 1.2.

(a) R(1,000 hrs) .9725
(b) MTTF (in hrs) 20,544
(c) The mode (in hours) 2369
(d) The median time to failure 10,000
(e) The 90 percent design life 2140
(f) The conditional reliability to get to
1000 hours given it survives 100 hr. .9725
(g) characterize the hazard rate function
IFR/DFR
as DFR, CFR, IFR, or combination
(h) Average failure rate from 0 to 5,000
hrs
6.62 x 10-5

4.25 (a) R(5000) = .8885, (b) t0.90 = 4773, (c) R(5000|5000) = R(10,000) / R(5000) = .4884
(d) 1 – [1 – R(5000|5000)]2 = .7383

4.26 gamma distribution with γ = 1.8 and α = 10,000 hr. (a) MTTF = 17,000 hr., (b) std. dev. = 13,038
hr., (c) tmed = 13,807 hr., (d) tmode = 7,000 (e) t0.95 = 2420 hr., (e) R(5,000) = .8534, (f) R(1,000|5,000) =
R(6000) / R(5000) = .9511, (g) IFR

4-8
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.27
⎛ 1 2000 ⎞
(a) R(2000) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ln ⎟ = 1 − Φ (−.851) = .80234
⎝ 1.7 8500 ⎠
⎛ 1 t ⎞
(b) 1 − Φ ⎜ ln ⎟ = .99
⎝ 1.7 8500 ⎠
1 t
ln = −2.33 or t = 8500 e( −2.33)(1.7) = 161.87 ≈ 161 landings
1.7 8500
4.28
.7
⎛ 50 ⎞
−.00045(50)
−⎜ ⎟ ⎡ ⎛ 1 50 ⎞ ⎤
(a ) R (50) = e ⋅e ⎝ 8939.43 ⎠
⎢1 − Φ ⎜ .4 ln 100 ⎟ ⎥ = .9519
⎣ ⎝ ⎠⎦
R(100) .87706
(b) R(50 | 50) = = = .9214
R(50) .9519
(c) MTTFexternal = 1/ λ = 2222.22; MTTFquality = ( 8939.43) Γ (1 + 10 / 7 ) = 11,315.7
2
MTTFwear −out = 200e.4 /2
= 216.6

4.29 This is a gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.4. (a) Using trial and error and the
Chapter 4 spreadsheet or the course software, α is found to be approximately 5865. (b) R(5,000) =
.872443, (c) MTTF = 14,076, (c) tmed = 12,176.67, (d) 1 – [1 - . 872443]2 = .98373

4.30 (a)
Manufacturer R(72) MTTF tmed (b)
R(72|50)
RWT Space Division .9118 .415 339.4 .8818
Rockweed-Smarton .9276 585 hr 443.7 .9202

(c) R(t|50) = R(t+50)/R(50) = .95 ; solve (trial and error) for t ≈ 39.5 hr.

= .998743) .933171) .972064 ) = .905962

−.083( 5/6 −.034 5/6
4.31 Rsys = R (5 / 6 | 50) ⋅ e ⋅e

4.32
⎡⎛ 1 ⎞ (t − μ ) ⎤ (t −μ )
1 −e α ⎡ α ⎤
(t−μ ) ( t −μ )
α
f '(t ) = d ⎢⎜ ⎟ e α
e− e ⎥ / dt = 2 e ⎢e − 1⎥
⎢⎣⎝ α ⎠ ⎥⎦ α ⎢⎣ ⎥⎦
⎡ (t − μ ) ⎤
setting ⎢ e α − 1⎥ = 0 and solving t = μ
⎢⎣ ⎦⎥

4-9
 Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.
Waveland Press, Inc., Copyright © 2009

4.33
t t
2t ' t '2 t2 t2
F (t ) = ∫ dt ' = = ; R (t ) = 1 −
0
b2 b2 0 b2 b2
2t
b 2 2t
λ (t ) = = IFR
t 2 b2 − t 2
1− 2
b
b b
2t 2 2t 3 2b3 2
MTTF = ∫ 2
dt = 2 = 2 = b
0
b 3b 0 3b 3
2
t
= .5 or t med = b .5
med
2
b

4.34
t
⎛ 2 2t ' ⎞ 2t t 2 2t t 2
F (t ) = ∫ ⎜ − 2 ⎟ dt ' = − 2 ; R (t ) = 1 − + 2
0⎝
b b ⎠ b b b b
2 2t
− 2
b b 2
λ (t ) = = ; IFR
2t t 2
(b − t )
1− + 2
b b
b
b
⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞ ⎛ t2 t3 ⎞ b b
MTTF = ∫ ⎜1 − + 2 ⎟ dt = ⎜ t − + 2 ⎟ = b − b + =
0⎝
b b ⎠ ⎝ b 3b ⎠0 3 3
2
2tmed t med
− 2 = .5 solve for tmed using quadratic formula
b b

4-10