PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

QUALIFIED ACTIVITY – T3
TASK
I. INFORMATIVE DATA:
Qualification : Study of cases
type of participation : Group (maximum 4 members)
Delivery term : Tenth week of class (Week 10)
Presentation medium : Virtual classroom / main menu / T3
Qualification : 0 to 20 – 15% of the final average

II. GROUP MEMBERS:

 DEL CARPIO ARIAS JOSE ARTURO
 GOMEZ CERNA ALDO
 IRIARTE MUÑOZ MIRIAM
 SANTILLAN CHUQUILIN JULIO ALBERTO

III. EVIDENCE OF LEARNING:

 Read the statement of each exercise and develop each of the exercises that must be
prepared with the SPSS program, placing the program reports or the screenshot if
necessary.

CASES RAISED

Objective 1: Determine the presence of diabetes in the staff of the Limatambo clinic
according to basal blood glucose levels.

At the Limatambo Clinic, I carried out a health campaign for its staff to detect diabetes early
and reliably and thus be able to guarantee the safety and reliability of the staff's work
performance, considering blood glucose indicators. Previous studies have determined that The
basal glycemia of diabetics can be considered as a normally distributed variable, with a mean
of 112 mg/dl and a standard deviation of 12 mg/dl. A clinic staff is considered to have high-risk
diabetes if their basal blood glucose level exceeds 132 mg/dl. The Limatambo clinic must issue
a report about the health of its staff.

X=N(µ;Ơ 2 ) µ=112 mg/dl

X=Basal blood glucose levels
Ơ=12 mg/dl
X=N(112;12)

a. Considering the respective analyses, how likely is it that a worker at the Limatambo clinic
has high-risk diabetes? (2 points)

X˃132→Diabetes
P(X ˃132) = 1-P(X≤132)= 0.04779035227281
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

The probability that a worker will have diabetes if he or she exceeds basal blood
glucose levels of 132 mg/dl is 0.04779035227281.

b. 14% of staff have high glucose levels and are reported as high risk. Determine the
minimum glucose value that considers the patient at high risk. (3
points) 86 % 14 %

86th Vm/g = 124.96 mg/dl

 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Objective 2: Determine if the specifications of a production line are met in order to

improve the skills of the supervisors of the Transnational Falabella.

The Transnational Fabella has a training program to improve the skills of production line
supervisors. The program is self-applicable so supervisors require a number of hours to
complete it. A study of previous participants reveals the following times in hours that follow a
normal distribution; According to the specifications of the transnational, the supervision time
must be between 34.3 hours and 43.20 hours:

a.- The transnational. has chosen a random sample of 12 supervisors in the database and
measures the supervision time of a production line obtaining the following results in hours.

38.7 33.3 35.4 38.2 36.7 39.5

37.9 38.3 39.5 38.2 36.8 37.9

aWith a confidence level of 97%, the transnational. You must estimate the average hours to
complete supervision of a production line. With the results obtained, are the specifications
for the supervision of the production line met? (3 points)

1−α=¿ 97 %=0 , 97

Confidence interval for the population mean with unknown variance

 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Confidence interval for the population mean:

IC(μ) = [36,259 ; 38,808 ]

There is 97% certainty that the average time to complete supervision of a production line is between
36,259 and 38,808 hours.
Both limits of the interval comply with being between 34.3 hours and 43.20 hours, so the
specifications for the supervision of the production line are met.
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

b.- After the analysis carried out, you consider that the sample size is not adequate and you
wish to carry out a new study. Taking into account the previous study and an estimation
error of 0.09 per hour, what should be the new sample size that should be considered for
the new analysis? Use a 98% confidence level. (2 points)

Data

Standard deviation (of sample): S = 1.7722

Estimation error: E = 0.09
Confidence level: 1−α=0 , 98
α 0 , 02
:α =1−0 , 98=0 , 02 →1− =1− =0 , 99
2 2
Z α =Z 0 ,99=2, 58(Calculado en excel)
1−
2

Since the variable represents quantitative data and the population size is unknown, the following formula
should be used to estimate the sample size:

( )
2
ZS
n=
E

( ) [ ]
2
Z 0 ,99 S 2 2,3263 ( 1,7722 )
n= =
E 0 , 09
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

n = 2099 (rounding to the next integer)

With a confidence of 98% we can suggest that 2099 supervisors should be considered for the sample of
the new analysis

Objective 3: Estimate a confidence interval for a proportion.

The BACKUS Distributor has received complaints about quality standards. The supplier
states that the offered lot has a maximum of 2% of units that do not meet the quality
standard required by the distributor. The head of the company's quality area randomly
chooses a sample of 50 products from the batch to be purchased and recorded whether or
not each product meets the standard required by the distributor. The data obtained is
shown below:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Fails
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 Compliant
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Using a 98% confidence level, do the results contradict the vendor's claim? (5 points)
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Confidence interval for population proportion:

CI(P) = [0.01; 0.17]

With a confidence of 97%, the true proportion of products that do not meet the standard required by the
distributor is between -1% and 17%
With the results we can verify that the supplier's statement is not correct, who states that the lot
offered has a maximum of 2% of units that do not meet the standard required by the distributor
(which is well below the 17% obtained in the result).

Objective 4: Confidence interval for the mean difference

Constructora Cosapi wants to acquire screws from a new supplier as long as they have a
greater resistance to torsion. In order to make the decision to change suppliers, randomly
select 7 points at the base of a shelf with the screws from the new supplier and another 10
points at the base of another shelf with the screws from the current supplier. Below are the
results obtained from measuring the torque in inches:

Supplier Torsional Strength in inches

 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

New 6.3 3.5 7.9 4.8 3.7 3.6 4.5

Current 4.4 7.4 4.5 3.4 3.6 4.2 3.7 3.4 4.7 4.5

With a confidence level of 98%, should the company change suppliers? (5 points)

Step 1: we have to evaluate with the LEVENE test. (EQUALITY OF VARIANCE).

F-test for equality of

variance
variance:
2.703
New
variance:
1.364
Current
1.98 F
0.3423 p-value
P=0.3423; 0.3423>= α; H0 is NOT rejected.

confidence
-1.4779 interval 98.%
lower
confidence
2.5179 interval 98.%
upper

-1.4779 ≤ Un – Uv≤ 2.5179 (they are equal).

We conclude that since v1=v2, then the company should not change suppliers .

IV. INDICATIONS
To prepare the report, the following must be considered:

1. The content of modules 7, 8 and 9 reviewed in the unit.

2. Round answers to four decimal places when necessary.
3. Coordinate the formation of groups with the course teacher.
4. Shipping conditions:
 The document must be presented in the file of Ms. Word (.doc/.docx) or Acrobat (.PDF)
and individually. Don't forget to put the names of all the members of the group on the
first sheet.
 Save the file in the following format:
T3_(course name)_Surnames and full names
Example: T3_Probability and statistics_Nuñez Gutierrez Carlos Alejandro
5. Make sure you send the correct file and comply with the shipping conditions, otherwise
there will be no option for further claims.
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

NOTE: If the student commits any type of plagiarism, his/her automatic score will be zero (0).

V. EVALUATION RUBRIC:
The assignment of the maximum score to each criterion is applicable if it is met at a satisfactory
level. The course teacher determines the score for each item according to his or her expert
judgment.

Rating scale
Q Criteria Score
5 points 3 points 2 points 1 point 0 points
Formalizes Does not
Formalize and
but does not correctly
correctly
Item a ------ ------
calculate the
correctly formalize or 2
calculate calculate
probability
probability probability
Normal
distribution It identifies It does not
1 (5 points) but does not identify or
Correctly identify and correctly correctly
calculate the minimum calculate the calculate the
Item b ------ temperature value.
------ 3
minimum minimum
temperature temperature
value. value.

Correctly Does not Does not

estimates and correctly correctly
Correctly estimate
interprets the estimate or estimate or
and interpret the
confidence interpret the interpret the
item a ------ confidence interval
interval but confidence
3
confidence
and answer the
does not interval but interval or
Confidence question
answer the answers the answer the
interval for question question question
2 a mean and
sample size
( 5 points) Calculates the
sample size
Correctly but does not
item b ------ ------ calculate round the ------ 2
sample size value
obtained from
the formula

Estimates but
Correctly Does not
Confidence does not
estimate and Correctly estimates correctly
correctly
interval for interpret the and interprets the estimate or
interpret the
3 a Question 3 confidence confidence interval
confidence
------ interpret the 5
proportion interval and but does not answer confidence
interval or
(5 points) answer the the question interval or
answer the
question answer the
question
question
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Estimates but
Confidence Correctly Does not
does not
interval for estimate and Correctly estimates correctly
correctly
interpret the and interprets the estimate or
the interpret the
4 Question 4 confidence confidence interval ------ interpret the 5
difference interval and but does not answer
confidence
confidence
of means interval or
answer the the question interval or
(5 points) answer the
question answer the
question
question

TASK GRADING 20