MODULE 15 – PROBABILITY

1. A number is selected at random from the numbers 1, 2, 3…… 50. What is the probability that the
number is a multiple of either 6 or 9?
(a) 1/4 (b) 2/3 (c) 1/3 (d) 2/4

Solution:
Multiples of 6 from 1 to 50 = 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48
Multiples of 9 from 1 to 50 = 9, 18, 27, 36, 45
Either multiples of 6 or 9 = M(6) + M(9) - M(6 and 9)
= 8 + 5 – 2 = 11.

Therefore, Required probability = 1150

2. There are five hotels in a town. If 3 men check into the hotels in a day then what is the probability
that each checks into a different hotel?
(a) 60/53
(b) 60/3
5
(c) 3/8 (d) 5/9

Solution:
Total cases of checking in the hotels = 5 ways
3

Cases, when 3 men are checking in different hotels = 5 x 4 x 3 = 60 ways

Required probability:
= 60 / 53

3. In a drawer there are 4 white socks, 3 blue socks and 5 grey socks. Two socks are picked
randomly. What is the possibility that both socks are of same colour?
(a) 4/11 (b) 1 (c) 2/33 (d) 19/66

Solution:
Probability = What we wantTotal
OR = Add AND = Multiply
Total socks = 4 + 3 + 5 = 12
We want same colour socks
So we want 2 white OR 2 blue OR 2 grey socks
For white:
Probability of 1 sock being white = 412
st

Probability of 2 sock being white = 311

nd

White Probability = 412 x 311 = 111

Similarly,

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Blue Probability = 312 x 211 = 122
Grey Probability = 512 x 411 = 533
Therefore, Total Probability = 111 + 122 + 533 = 1966

4. On rolling a dice 2 times, the sum of 2 numbers that appear on the uppermost face is 10. What is
the probability that the first throw of dice yields 5?
(a) 2/36 (b) 1/36 (c) 1/6 (d) 1/5

Solution:
A dice has 6 faces
So there are 6 possible outcomes
Dice is rolled once AND then again
So, total possibilities = 6 x 6 = 36
The sum should be 10 of the three throws.
So which combination of numbers from 1 to 6 will yield us a sum of 10?
They are – (4,6); (6,4); (5,5)
So there are total 3 possibilities where addition is 10
But only 1 possibility where the first throw of dice is 5.
So, probability for first throw to be 5 and sum to be 10 = 136

5. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards.
What is the probability that the first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace?
(a) 2/5530 (b) 3/5525 (c) 2/5525 (d) 4/5525

Solution:
Let Q denote the event that the card drawn is king and A be the event that the card drawn is an ace.
Clearly, we have to find P (QQA)
Now P(Q) = 4/52
Also, P (Q|Q) is the probability of a second king with the condition that one king has already been
drawn. Now there are three king in (52 - 1) = 51 cards.
Therefore P(Q|Q) = 3/51
P(A|QQ) is the probability of the third drawn card to be an ace, with the condition that two kings
have already been drawn. Now there are four aces in left 50 cards.
Therefore P(A|QQ) = 4/50
By multiplication law of probability, we have
P(QQA) = P(Q) P(Q|Q) P(A|QQ)
= 4/52 × 3/51 × 4/50
= 2/5525.

6. A family has two children. Find the probability that both the children are girls given that at least
one of them is a girl?
(a) 1/4 (b) 2/3 (c) 1/3 (d) 2/4

Solution:
Let b stand for boy and g for girl. The sample space of the experiment is
S = {(g, g), (g, b), (b, g), (b, b)}
Let E and F denote the following events:

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E : ‘both the children are girls’
F : ‘at least one of the children is a girl’
Then E = {(g, g)} and F = {(g,g), (g,b), (b,g)}
Now E n F = {(g,g)}
Thus P(F) = 3/4
and P (E n F )= 1/4
Therefore P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3

7. Find the probability of drawing a king, a queen, and a jack in order from a pack of cards in three
consecutive draws, without replacement?
(a) 1635139 (b) 64132600 (c) 12179 (d) 162179

Solution:
Therefore, Required Probability = 452 * 451* 450 = 64/132600

8. What is the probability of getting 2 Kings and 1 Queen when 3 cards are picked from a pack of 52
cards without replacement?
(a) 4852*51*513 (b) 48*352*51*50 (c) 4523 (d)
452 *3

Solution:
K Q K
1 2
K K Q
1 2
Q K K
1 2

1st case =
452 *451 * 350 = 4852*51*50
2nd case =
452 *351 * 450 = 4852*51*50
1st case =
452 *451 * 350 = 4852*51*50
Total cases = 48*352*51*50

9. A 5- digit number if formed by the digits 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 without repetition. What is the probability
that the numbers thus formed are a multiple of 4?
(a) 3/5 (b) 1/5 (c) 7/25 (d) 24/119

Solution:
Total number of five-digit numbers = 5!= 120.
Now to be a multiple of 4, the last 2 digits of the number have to be divisible by 4, i.e. they must be
12, 24, 32, or 52.
Corresponding to each of these ways there are 3!, i.e. 6 ways of filling the remaining 3 places.
The required probability = 4*6120 = 15

10. Ajay throws three dice in a special game of Ludo. If it is known that he needs 15 or higher in this
throw to win, then find the chance of his winning the game.
(a) 5/54 (b) 17/216 (c) 13/216 (d) 15/216

Solution:
Event definition is: 15 or 16 or 17 or 18.
15 can be got as: 5 and 5 and 5 (one way)
Or
6 and 5 and 4 (Six ways)

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 Or
6 and 6 and 3 (Three ways)
Total 10 ways
16 can be got as: 6 and 6 and 4 (3 ways)
Or
6 and 5 and 5 (3 ways)
Total 6 ways
17 has 3 ways and 18 has 1 way of appearing.
Thus, the required probability is: (10 + 6 + 3 + 1) / 216
=20/216
=5/54

11. A man and his wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The probability of
husband's selection is (1/7) and the probability of wife's selection is (1/5).
(i) What is the probability that only one of them is selected?
(ii) What is the probability that both of them is selected?
(iii) What is the probability that none of them is selected?
(iv) What is the probability that at least one of them is selected?
A – Husband selected A’ – Husband selected
B – Wife selected B’ – Wife selected
P(A) = 1/7 P(A’) = 1 – 1/7 = 6/7
P(B) = 1/5 P(B’) = 1 – 1/5 = 4/5

Solution (i)
Only one of them will be selected
= P(A) * P(B’) + P(B) * P(A’)
= 17 * 45 + 15 * 67
= 27
Solution (ii)
Both of them is selected
= P(A) * P(B)
= 17 * 15
= 135
Solution (iii)
None of them is selected
= P(A’) * P(B’)
= 67 * 45
= 2435
Solution (iv)
At least one of them is selected
= 1 - 2435
= 1135

12. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn together at random. What is the probability of both
the cards being kings?

(a) 1/15 (b) 25/57 (c) 35/256 (d) 1/221

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Solution:
Let S be the sample space.

(52 x 51)
Then, n(S) = c = 52
2 = 1326.
(2 x 1)

Let E = event of getting 2 kings out of 4.

(4 x 3)
n(E) = c =
4
2 = 6.
(2 x 1)

n(E) 6 1
P(E) = = = .
n(S) 1326 221

13. What is the probability that four S’s come consecutively in the word MISSISSIPPI?
(a) 4/165 (b) 2/165 (c) 3/165 (d) 1/165

Solution:
P = Number of arrangements with four S’s together
Total number of arrangements

P = [8!/(4!*2!) (11!/(4!*4!*2!)]
= 8!*4!11!
= 4165

14. Three of six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen at random. The probability that triangle
with three vertices is equilateral, is equal to
(a) 1/5 (b) 2/5 (c) 1/10 (d) 1/20

Solution:

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Let T represent the equilateral triangles
n(T) = No. if equilateral triangle, with six vertices ABCDEF of regular hexagon, are only two
namely △ACE; △BDF
n(S) = Total no. of triangles with six vertices are = C = 20
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3

P(T) = n(T)n(S) = 220 = 110

Correct Answer : 1/10

14. If all the rearrangements of the word AMAZON are considered, what is the probability that M
will feature between the 2As?
(a) 1/3 (b) 1/6 (c) 2/5 (d) 3/8

Solution:
For this type of question, we need to consider only the internal arrangement within the M and 2As.
M and 2As can be rearranged as AMA, AAM, or MAA.
So, the probability that M will feature between the 2As is 1/3.
Now, let us think why we need to consider only the M and 2As.
Let us start by considering a set of words where the M and 2 As are placed at positions 2, 3 and 5.
The other three letters have to be in slots 1, 4 and 6
Three letters can be placed in three different slots in 3! = 6 ways.
Now with M A A there are 6 different words.
With A M A there are 6 different words.
With A A M there are 6 different words.
For each selection of the positions for A,A and M, exactly one-third of words will have M between
the two A’s.
This is why only the internal arrangement between A, A and M matters.
So, the probability of M being between 2 As is 1/3.

HOMEWORK:

1. What is the possibility of having 53 Thursdays in a non-leap year?

(a) 1/7 (b) 6/7 (c) 1/365 (d) 53/365

Solution:
A non-leap year has 365 days, which has 52 weeks (364 days) means 52 Thursdays.
Thus there is just 1 day extra.
We want it to be Thursday.
Total possibilities are 7 (Sunday to Saturday means 7 days)
Therefore, Probability of 53 Thursdays = 17

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2. A box contains 50 balls, numbered from 1 to 50. If three balls are drawn at random with
replacement, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers is odd?
(a) 1/2 (b) 1/3 (c) 2/7 (d) 1/5

Solution:
There are 25 odd and 25 even numbers from 1 to 50.
Sum will be odd if =
odd + odd + odd
odd + even + even
even + odd + even
even+ even + odd
P= (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) + (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) + (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) + (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 4/8 🡪 1/2

3. In a four-game match between Monica and Chandler, the probability that Chandler wins a
particular game is 2/5 and that of Monica winning a game is 3/5. Assuming that there is no
probability of a draw in an individual game, what is the chance that the match is drawn
(a) 213/625 (b) 211/625 (c) 216/625 (d) 1/4

Solution:
For the match to be drawn, 2 games have to be won by each of the players.
If ‘M’ represents the event that Monica won a game and 'C' represents the event that Chandler won a
game.
The event definition: for the match to end in a draw.
Probability = (M & M & C & C) OR (M & C & C & M) OR (M & C & M & C) OR (C & C & M &
M) OR (C & M & C & M) OR (C & M & M & C)
= [(2/5) x (2/5) x (3/5) x (3/5)] + [(2/5) x (2/5) x (3/5) x (3/5)] + [(2/5) x (2/5) x (3/5) x (3/5)] + [(2/5)
x (2/5) x (3/5) x (3/5)] + [(2/5) x (2/5) x (3/5) x (3/5)]
= (36/625) X 6
= 216/625

4. There are 5 envelopes corresponding to 5 letters. If the letters are placed in the envelopes at
random, what is the probability that all the letters are not placed in the right envelopes?
(a) 119/120 (b) 50/60 (c) 23/24 (d) 4 /5
5 5

Solution:
The problem gives the probabilities for passing in at least one, at least two and exactly two.
All four are not in the correct envelopes, which means that at least one of them is in the wrong
envelope. A little consideration will show that one letter being placed in the wrong envelope is not
possible, since it will have to be interchanged with some other letter.
Since, there is only one way to put all the letters in the correct envelopes, we can say that the event of
not all four letters going into the correct envelopes will be given by
5! – 1 = 119
Therefore, answer is 119/120

5. Doctors have devised a test for leptospirosis that has the following property: For any person
suffering from lepto, there is a 90% chance of the test returning positive. For a person not suffering
from lepto, there is an 80% chance of the test returning negative. It is known that 10% of people who
go for testing have lepto. If a person who gets tested gets a +ve result for lepto (as in, the test result
says they have got lepto), what is the probability that they actually have lepto?

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(a) 7/10 (b) 8/11 (c) 1/3 (d) 1/2

Solution:
Let us draw the possibilities in this scenario.
Prob (patient having lepto) = 0.9
Prob (patient not having lepto) = 0.1
Given that patient has lepto, Prob (test being positive) = 0.9
Given that patient has lepto, Prob (test being negative) = 0.1
Given that patient does not have lepto, Prob (test being negative) = 0.8
Given that patient does not have lepto, Prob (test being positive) = 0.2
Now, we are told that the test turns positive. This could happen under two scenarios – the patient has
lepto and the test turns positive and the patient does not have lepto and the test turns positive.
Probability of test turning positive = 0.9 × 0.1 + 0.9 × 0.2 = 0.27.
Now, we have not been asked for the probability of the test turning positive. We are asked for the
probability of the patient having lepto given that he/she tests positive. So, the patient has already
tested positive. So, this 0.27 includes the set of universal outcomes. Or, this 0.27 sits in the
denominator.
Within this 0.27, which subset was the scenario that the patient does indeed have lepto?
This is the key question. This probability is 0.1 × 0.9 = 0.09. So, the required probability = 0.09/0.27
= 1/3
So, if a patient tests positive, there is a 1 in 3 chance of him/her having lepto. This is the key reason
that we need to be careful with medical test results.