27/07/23

Analyse - Breaking things into parts and analysing how those parts work in relation to
each other (Description is not enough)
When analysing remember to kook at source
When writing, always extract the core argument before dealing with the underlying
issues/assumptions
Thought process
 Core argument
 Underlying assumption
 Are their assumptions valid
 The examples they use/ their reasoning
 Own evidence
 Understanding your and their perspective
 Start thought and writing process
Waltz (2001) -
Buzan, B (2014) example –

31/07/23
Study Theme 2
Tactical Strategist
 Clausewitz
 First person to write down the theory of war?
 Classical strategist who delves into why does war have certain outcomes
 “War is the continuation of politics by other means”
 The trinity
 People (Passion)
 Government (Rationality)
 Military (Probability)
 Centre of gravity = what’s the “thing” that you need win the war (think about the
scientifical version of centre of gravity the “balance between things” before it falls
over)
From most important to least important according to Clausewitz
 Army
  Capital City
 Key Ally
 Leader
 Public Opinion
 Limited v Unlimited war
 Limited war = the aim is not to topple completely but to do enough damage
that they agree to come the table
 Unlimited war = the one country wants to at least rule the other county and
topple their government
 Friction
 Things that run against your military and wears it down = weather, supplies,
hunger, morale etc. things the opposition can try do it wear down the military.
Also includes unexpected things of war.

 Sun Tzu
 Could be a collection of thinkers, not just one person
 “Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in
peril”.
 Comparative Advantage
 Where is my advantage in this war, they might be better here but I have an
advantage here
 This can be used to gain an edge over opponents
 Mao
 “how do you win a revolutionary war” a war within a country
 Informed by Sun Tzu
 Revolutionary movement and strategic force
 Strategic Stalemate
 Do not attach the state outright, but you are making small attacks. To the point
where they can’t beat you outright and you can’t beat them outright, it is a
strategic stalemate. The aim is to deliberately wear them out because you
know you cannot win outright.
 Strategic Offensive
 You can now attack the capital and eventually gain power. Being offensive
outright
 Strategic thought in Africa
 Shaka Zulu
 Integration of strategy, operational and tactics, used psychological warfare
 Mahdi and the defeat of gorgon and Khartoum
 Menelik and the battle of Adwa
 Used mobilisation, used peasants to feed the military, built certain
relationships, and used the Italians underestimation of them in Ethiopia
Strategic Concepts
 Geo-politics
 The relationship between geography and politics
 Think about the role geography in politics, oil and key passages and other
resources.
 Horn of Africa, a geographical hotspot due to shipping lanes. The Nile, dispute
between Ethiopia and Egypt
 Grand Strategy
 The long-term strategy that a government uses to ensure their interests are met.
Can be geopolitical.
 Example of grand strategy: Israel, which perceives itself as being in an “unfriendly
neighbourhood”
 Threat Perception
 How strong is the possible threat and how strong/weak in comparison to you
(note not everyone strong is a threat) – aggregate capabilities
 Geography
 If you don’t think the stronger person is going to threaten you then they are not
perceived as a threat – Perception of aggressive intentions
 Security Dilemma
 Defensive action can lead to increased insecurity – even if I wasn’t planning on
invading they threat is enough to cause fear and lead to increased military action.
 Defensive action can be perceived as offensive, even if it is completely legal.
The 1967 War

03/08/23
Skills lecture
Assignment 1 – Policy Brief (Due 25 August 2023 @ 16h00)
Applying strategic and security concepts and theories

The levels of warfare are not about when but rather about how you break down the war
and how different decisions are made. Is it political in nature or does it included fighting
A - strategic
B - operational
C - tactical
D - tactical
E - strategic
F – Operational

Clausewitz’ Trinity
07/08/23
Week 3 Theme 3 – The study of war: causes, forms and laws of war
(Online test – next week Wednesday)
What is war?
Uppsala definition – makes it easy to define war. It’s a bit arbitrary.
Clausewitz’ definition – vague, but still widely used
Wright Quincy definition -
Conventional war – state v state
Asymmetrical war – state v another force (militia, terrorist organization etc)
Not all wars fall into one category i.e. Isis in Iraq and Syria
Dominate approach to classifying war (not a theory) – Waltz’ three images
Explanations of war
Inter-state explanations can also be used in intra-state wars
Bargaining model – is caused by uncertainty, which can lead to war. (references security dilemma).
Under and over-estimation for another state/ armed force.
Indivisibility Problems – somethings just cannot be solved. It can’t be shared. Therefore, we must fight it
out. i.e. Israeli -Palestine conflict. Jerusalem cannot be “divided”.
History of warfare on the African Continent

International Law and the use of Force

Jus ad Bellum
Collective security – we are all agreeing to adhere to these laws (laws regarding war) and if one state
does not, we will hold them accountable.
Jus in Bello
the laws of war must always be adhered to, even if the war was illegal.
10/08/23
Skills Lecture
How to do academic reading
Part 1: What to read
Deductive – general to specific
Inductive – Specific to general
Part 2: How to read
14/08/23
Theme 4: Irregular Warfare and Strategy
Irregular warfare – types of organised violence conducted by substate actors against state or non-state
actors i.e terrorist organisations v the state
Insurgency – organised violence with the aim of overthrowing the current government. Insurgency is an
armed political movement. Mostly use guerrilla warfare. Non-state armed resistance against a
perceived illegitimate ruling government. Often leads to civil war.
Legitimacy – Governments crackdown on supporters of the insurgency often legitimises the
“revolutionary” cause.
Support – not possible to succeed without popular support. i.e., look at Boko Haram kidnapping girls
and ISIS killing innocent civilians.
External Support – foreign political relations with other groups, individuals and even states for moral
and material support
Counterinsurgency and counterterrorism in theory and practice
Counterinsurgency – groups that are against insurgency
Counterterrorism – groups that are against terrorism
Location – recgonising the existence of the threat as early as possible is very important. An effective
intelligence-gathering and assessment (local support is needed). Government’s first reaction is
key determinant factor of whether a movement will develop into an insurgency or terrorism
Physical isolation – restricting access to relevant population/ cutting off supplies
Political isolation – discredit the insurgents/terrorist political message with the use of propaganda
Eradication – Lastly, the physical destruction of the insurgents/terrorists. Destruction of safe havens,
bases and infrastructure. Insurgents/terrorist must be brought to justice

Understand concepts in the theme, could be used in 2nd assignment