Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

CHAPTER 5
5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Introduction
 Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of inference
is built.
 It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
 In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment.
It is the measure of how likely an outcome is to occur.
Definitions of some probability terms
1. Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process which
generates well defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be repeated any number
of times under similar conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total
number of outcomes with out predicting an individual out come. It is also called
random experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible outcomes
i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which outcome will
occur.
3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or more
outcomes of a random experiment .They are denoted by capital letters.
Example: Considering the above experiment let A be the event of odd numbers,
B be the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
 A  1,3,5
B  2,4,6
C    or empty space or impossible event
Remark:
If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or
events.
6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non-
' c
occurrence of A and is denoted by A , or A , or A contains those points of the
sample space which don’t belong to A.
8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the same
time.

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10.Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of the other occurring.
11.Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment

a) Toss a die one time.

b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by time.
Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be

 Countable ( finite or infinite)

 Uncountable.
Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event
 The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
 In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of
counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule

 To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree
diagram is used.

Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He can take
tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake and sandwitch. How many possibilities does
he have?

Solutions:

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Tea
Bread
Cake
Sandwich

Coeffee
Bread
Cake
Sandwitch

Milk

Bread
Cake
Sandwitch
 There are nine possibilities.
The addition rule: A task A consists of m subtasks that

can be done in ways, respectively. If no

two of them can be done at the same time, then the total number of ways of

doing the task is

Example 1: Suppose that we are planning a trip and are deciding between bus and train
transportation. If there are four bus routes and three trains routs. How many possible
routes are available for the trip? Answer 4+3=7

The Multiplication Rule:

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If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways, the
second can be made in n2 ways…, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole
choice can be made in (n1 * n2 * ........* nk ) ways.
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card.
How many different cards are possible if
a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.

 5 * 5 * 5 * 5  625 different cards are possible.

b)

1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit

5 4 3 2

There are four steps

5. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
6. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 4 ways.
7. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 3 ways.
8. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 2 ways.

 5 * 4 * 3 * 2  120 different cards are possible.

Permutation

An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called permutation of

the objects.
Permutation Rules:

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1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is

n!
Where n! n * (n  1) * (n  2) * .....* 3 * 2 *1
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a
time is called the permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It
is written as n Pr and the formula is
n!
Pr 
(n  r )!
n

3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike k2 are

alike ---- etc is

n!
n Pr 
k1!*k 2 * ... * k n
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the
word “CORRECTION”?
Solutions:
1.
a)
Here n  4, there are four disnict object
 There are 4! 24 permutatio ns.

b)
Here n  4, r  2
4! 24
 There are 4 P2    12 permutatio ns.
(4  2)! 2
2.

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Here n  10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O, 2 are R ,1E ,1T ,1I ,1N
 K1  2, k 2  2, k3  2, k 4  k5  k6  k7  1
U sin g the 3rd rule of permutatio n , there are
10!
 453600 permutatio ns.
2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1!
Exercises:
1. If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, how
many of the permutations
i. Begins with a consonant?
ii. Ends with a vowel?
iii. Has a consonant and vowels alternating?
Combination

A selection of objects with out regard to order is called combination.

Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination
for selecting two letters.

Solutions:
Permutation Combination

AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC

Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the

same as BA.

Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by

n
C
n r or   and is given by the formula:
r

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n n!
  
 r  (n  r )!*r!
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:

n9 , r 5
n n! 9!
     126 ways
 
r ( n  r )!* r! 4!* 5!
2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives .In how many ways can an
inspector chose three of the clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.

Solutions:

n  15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are non  defective.

r 3

a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks and this

can be done in :
n  15 , r  3
n n! 15!
     455 ways
  (n  r )!*r! 12!*3!
r

b) None of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to zero defective and three non defective, which
can be done in:

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 2  13 
  *    286 ways.
0  3 
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
This is equivalent to one defective and two non defective, which can
be done in:

 2  13 
  *    156 ways.
1  2 
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
This is equivalent to two defective and one non defective, which can
be done in:

 2  13 
  *    13 ways.
 2  3 

Exercises:
1. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3
books of poems, and a dictionary, in how many ways this can be
don if
a) There is no restriction.
b) The dictionary is selected?
c) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

Approaches to measuring Probability

There are four different conceptual approaches to the study of probability
theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The frequentist approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.

The classical approach

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This approach is used when:

- All outcomes are equally likely.
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes is
conducted and out of these NA outcomes are favourable to the event A, then
the probability that event A occur denoted P(A) is defined as:
N A No. of outcomes favourable to A n( A)
P ( A)   
N Total number of outcomes n( S )
Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S
S  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
 N  n( S )  6
a) Let A be the event of number 4
A  4
 N A  n( A)  1
n( A)
P ( A)  1 6
n( S )
b) Let A be the event of odd numbers
A  1,3,5
 N A  n( A)  3
n( A)
P ( A)   3 6  0 .5
n( S )

c) Let A be the event of even numbers

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A  2,4,6
 N A  n( A)  3
n( A)
P ( A)   3 6  0.5
n( S )
d) Let A be the event of number 8
A Ø

 N A  n( A)  0
n( A)
P ( A)  0 60
n( S )
2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective
candles. If 10 of this candles are selected at random, what is the
probability
a) All will be defective.
b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective

Solutions:
 80 
Total selection     N  n( S )
 10 
a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.

 30   50 
Total way in which A occur    *    N A  n( A)
 10   0 
 30   50 
  *  
n( A)  10   0 
 P ( A)    0.00001825
n( S )  80 
 
 10 

b) Let A be the event that 6 will be non defective.

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Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

 30   50 
Total way in which A occur    *    N A  n( A)
4 6
 30   50 
 * 
n( A)  4   6 
 P ( A)    0.265
n( S )  80 
 
 10 
c) Let A be the event that all will be non defective.

 30   50 
Total way in which A occur    *    N A  n( A)
 0   10 
 30   50 
 * 
n( A)  0   10 
 P ( A)    0.00624
n( S )  80 
 
 10 

Exercises:
1. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3
books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that
a) The dictionary is selected?
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

Short coming of the classical approach:

This approach is not applicable when:
- The total number of outcomes is infinite.
- Outcomes are not equally likely.
The Frequentist Approach
This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to an event.
Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of outcomes
favourable to A in the long run when the experiment is repeated under same
condition.
NA
P( A)  lim
N  N

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Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective.
What is the probability of a newly produced bulb to be defective?
Solution:
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
NA 60
P( A)  lim   0.0006
N  N 100,000

Axiomatic Approach:

Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With

each event A a real number called the probability of A satisfies the following
properties called axioms of probability or postulates of probability.
1. P( A)  0
2. P( S )  1, S is the sure event.
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or the
other occur equals the sum of the two probabilities. i. e.
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
4. P( A )  1  P( A)
'

5. 0  P( A)  1
6. P(ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
Remark: Venn-diagrams can be used to solve probability problems.

AUB AnB A

In general p( A  B)  p( A)  p( B)  p( A  B)

Conditional probability and Independency

Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect on the next
occurrence of the other event then the two events are conditional or
dependant events.

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Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A) 
5
2
B= the event that the second draw is red  p ( B) 
5
A and B are independent.
2. Draw a ball with out replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A) 
5
B= the event that the second draw is red  p( B)  ?
This is conditional.
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that the first draw is
red  p( B)  1 4

Conditional probability of an event

The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already occurred,

denoted p ( A B ) is
p( A  B)
p( A B) = , p( B)  0
p( B)
Remark: (1) p( A B)  1  p( A B)
'

(2) p( B A)  1  p( B A)
'

Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the
probability is 0.25 that he/she will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she
will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she will get scholarship
and will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who get a
scholarship graduate?

Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a scholarship

B= the event that a student will graduate

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given p( A)  0.25, p ( B)  0.75, p A  B   0.20

Re quired pB A
p A  B  0.20
p  B A    0.80
p  A 0.25
2. If the probability that a research project will be well planned is 0.60
and the probability that it will be well planned and well executed is
0.54, what is the probability that it will be well executed given that it
is well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be well
Planned
B= the event that a research project will be well
Executed
given p ( A)  0.60, p A  B   0.54
Re quired pB A
p A  B  0.54
p  B A    0.90
p  A 0.60

3. A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective items from which

two items are chosen without replacement. Events A & B are defined
as A = the first item chosen is defective, B = the second item
chosen is defective
a. What is the probability that both items are defective?
b. What is the probability that the second item is defective?
Solution; Exercise
Note; for any two events A and B the following relation holds.
   
pB   pB A. p A  p B A' . p A'

Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if p A  B   p A. p B 

Here p A B   p A, P  B A  p  B 
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the
probability of getting two black balls in drawing one after the other under
the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced

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b. The first ball drawn is replaced

Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
Required p A  B 
a. p A  B   pB A. p A  4 10 3 9   2 15
b. p A  B   p A. pB   4 10 4 10   4 25

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