THIS IS OUR FUTURE AND ITS NOW OR NEVER

PROBABILITY THEORY
1. (a) Define the independence of two events A and B. Given that A and B are
independent events in a sample space such that
P(A) = 2 , and P(AUB)=0.8, find
5

i) P(B) ii) P( A  B )
(b) In a certain town the probability that a person owns a car is 0.25. Given
that the probability that a person who owns a car is a university graduate is
0.2. Find the probability that a person selected at random owns a car and is
a university graduate.
2 11
Answer (a)(i) , (ii) (b) 0.05
3 15
2. In a certain country, 60% of the cars privately owned, of the privately owned
cars 70% are small, whereas of the cars, which are not privately owned
40% are small. Independent of ownership 20% of the small cars and 30%
of the large cars are less than two years old. If a car is chosen at random,
calculate the probability that:
i. The car is small
ii. The car is privately owned given that it is large
iii. The car is privately owned, large and more than two years old.
iv. The car is large, given that it is privately owned and more than two
years old.
Answer: (i) 0.58 (ii) 0.43 (iii) 0.126 (iv)0.273

3. Tom is to travel from Lira to Kampala for an interview. The probabilities that
he will be in time for the interview when he travels by bus and taxi are 0.1
and 0.2 respectively. The probabilities that he will travel by bus and taxi
are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively.
i. Find the probability that he will be on time.
ii. Given that he is not on time what is the probability that he traveled by a
taxi?
Answer: (i) P(T) =0.14 (ii) 0.372

4. When visiting a friend Grace may go by road, air or rail. The probability of
using road, air and rail are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively. The corresponding
probabilities of arriving on agreed time are 0.2, 0.8 and 0.1 respectively.
Find the probability of having used the road given that he arrived on time.
Answer P(R|T) = 0.08

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5. The events A and B are such that P(A)=0.5,

1
P(A or B but not both A and B) = and P(B) = 0.25.
3
Calculate P(A  B), P( A 
B), P(A\B) where A is A does not occur.
State with reasons whether A and B are:
i. Independent
ii. Mutually exclusive

Answer P(A  5
B)= , P( A
24

B)=
1
24
5
, P(A\ B) = .
6

6. George Wear was a striker for AC Milan. In any match he may score 0, 1, 2, 3
and 4 goals for his side with probabilities 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1
respectively. Assuming that his performance in successive matches are
independent, what is the probability that in three consecutive matches:
i. He scores a total of 10 goals or more
ii. He does not score exactly three goals in any match
Answer (i) 0.013 (ii) 0.729

7. 95% of car drivers wears seat belts, 64% of car drivers involved in serious
accidents die if not wearing seat belts, where as 12% of those that do wear
seat belt die. Calculate to three significant figures, the percentage of drivers
involved in serious accidents who died and were not wearing seat belts.
Answer 21.9%
8. A court in Kampala may return any one of these verdicts namely Guilty(G),
Not guilty(N) or Not proven(V). Of all the cases tried by this court, 70% of
the verdicts were guilty, 20% were not guilty and 10% not proven. Suppose
that when the courts verdict is guilty, not guilty and not proven, the
respective probabilities of the accused person being innocent are 0.05, 0.95
and 0.25. Find the
i. Probability that the person is innocent
ii. An innocent person being tried by this court is found guilty
Answer (i) 0.25 (ii) 0.14

9. Two cards are drawn without replacement from ten cards, which are
numbered from 1 to 10. Find the probability that:
i. The numbers on both cards are even
ii. The number on one card is odd and the number on the other is even
iii. The sum of the numbers on the two cards exceeds 4.
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2 5 43
Answer: (i) (ii) (iii) .
9 9 45

1
10. Two independent events are such that the probability of both is and
6
1
that of neither is . Determine the probability of each of the events
3
occurring?
1 1 1 1
Answer: P(A) = , P(B) = , Or P(A)= , P(B) = .
3 2 2 3

11. Three balls are chosen at random without replacement from a bag
containing 3 red, 8 blue and 7 white balls. Determine the probability that
the balls chosen will be
(i) All blue
(ii) All red
(iii) One of each colour
7 1 7
Answer: (i)
102 , (ii)
816
, (iii)
34
.

12. A bag contains 5 white, 3 red and green counters are drawn without
replacement. What is the probability there
(i) Is no green counter
(ii) Are 2 white counters and a green counter
7 1
Answer (i) (ii) .
15 6
13. A football star has injury problems. When he is playing the probability that
3 1
his team will win is but otherwise it is only
4 2 . The probability that
1
the player will be fit this weekend is . Determine the probability that
3
his team will win the match.
7
Answer: .
12

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14. Three dice are to be rolled. Determine the probability of scoring a double
but not a triple.
5
Answer: .
12

15. Mariam’s chances of passing physics are 0.6, of economics 0.75 and of
mathematics 0.80.
i. Determine the chance that she passes one subject only
ii. If it is known that she passed at least two subjects, what is the
probability that she failed economics?
4
Answer: (i) 0.17 (ii) .
27

16. There are 3 black and 2 white balls in each of the two bags. A ball is taken
from the first bag and placed in the second, and then a ball is taken from
the second into the first, what is the probability that there is now the same
number of black and white balls in each bag as there to begin with?
Answer 0.6

17. A bag contains 5 black beads and 3 white beads. A second bag contains 3
black beads and 5 white beads. A bead is drawn at random from the first
bag and placed in the second bag. A bead is now drawn from the second bag
and placed in the first. Find the probability that each bag now contains.
a) 4 black and 4 white beads
b) The same numbers of each colour as it did initially
25 19
Answer (a) (b) .
72 36

18. A box A contains 3 red balls and 4 black balls. A box B contains 3 red balls
and 2 black balls. One box is selected at random and then from it, one ball is
selected at random.
(a) Find the probability that the ball is red,
(b) The probability that the ball came from box A, given that it is red.
18 5
Answer: (a) , (b) .
35 12

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19. A school is divided into two sections: A-level, 400 boys and 200 girls, O-
level, 400 girls and 300 boys. A student is selected at random from the
school. If this student comes from O-level, a second student is selected from
the A-level; if the first students comes from the A- level, the second student
is chosen from the O-level. Find the probability that
a) The second student will be a girl
b) If the second student is a boy, he is a member of A-level.
121 49
Answer: (a) (b) .
273 76
20. A boat hiring company at the local boating lake has two types of crafts 20
blue and 35 herons. The customer has to take the next boat available when
hiring. The boats are all distinguishable by their numbers. A regular
customer Amina carefully notices that the numbers of the boats, which she
uses, and finds that she has used 15 different blue birds and 20 different
herons. Each boat is equally likely to be the next in line. Amina hires two
boats at the same time (one is for a friend). If event X is Amina has not
hired either boat before, and event Y is: both are herons, determine:
(a) P(X)
(b) P(Y)
(c) P(X|Y)
(d) Whether the events are mutually exclusive
38
119 3
Answer: (a) P(X)= , (b) P(Y)= , (c) P(X|Y)= ,
297 297 17
21. Two girls Farida and Monica play a game in which each throws a
tetrahedron in turn. The first to get 3 wins, Farida tries first.
(a) What is the probability that
i. Monica wins on her second trial
ii. Farida wins
(b) A player can play on either of the two gambling machines A and B. He
chooses one of the machines at random, and plays two games. The
1
probability of winning a game on A is and the probability of winning a
3
1
game on B is . If he loses both of these two games, he plays a third game
4

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on the other machine; otherwise he plays the third game on the same
machine. Find the probability that he
i. Wins the first game
ii. Changes the machine after the second game
iii. Plays the third game on A
iv. Wins the third game
27 4 7 145 161
Answer: (a)(i) , (b) (i) , (ii) , (iii) (iv) 0.3242.
256 7 24 288 288

22. A bag contains 4 white balls and 1 black ball. A second bag contains 1 white
ball and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the first bag and put
into the second bag, then a ball is taken from the second bag and put into
the first bag. Find the probability that a white ball will be picked when a
ball is selected from the first bag.
Answer: 0.7
23. When it is fine day, the probability that Alice plays Netball is 0.9 and the
probability that Shakirah plays is 0.75. If it is not fine, Alice’s probability is
0.5 and Shakirah is 0.25. Their chances are independent. In general it is
twice likely to be fine as not.
(i) Determine the probability that they both go to play (Ans:54/120)
(ii) If they both go to play what is the probability that it is a fine day?
(Ans:54/59)

24. A four-man team is to be selected from three women and 4 men,

(a) What is the probability that
(i) The women will form the majority
4 13
(ii) At least 3 men will be on the committee? Ans:(i) (ii) .
35 35
(b) If the group contains a couple that insists on being on the committee
2 6
together, repeat question (a)(i) and (ii) above. Ans:(i) (ii) .
35 35

25. Kato wishes to send a message to Mary. The probabilities that he uses e-
mail, letter or personal contact are 0.4, 0.1 and 0.5 respectively. He uses
only one method; the probabilities of Mary receiving the messages if John
uses e-mail, letter or personal contact are 0.6, 0.8 and 0.1 respectively.
(i) Find the probability that Mary receives the message.

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(ii) Given that Mary receives the message find the probability that she
24
received it via e-mail. Ans:(i)0.37 (ii) .
37

26.The probability that a student passes mechanics is 0.75 and the probability
that she passes statistics is 0.65. If the probability that she passes neither of
the units is 0.2. Find the probability that she passes mechanics but not
statistics. Ans:0.35

27. A bag contains4 white balls, 3 black balls and 1 red ball. Two balls are picked
in succession at random without replacement.
Find the probability that;
(i) Both are of the same color.
9 9
(ii) At least one black ball is picked? Ans:(i) (ii) .
28 14
28. Two events A and B are independent such that P(A/B) = 1/4 and P(B)=2/5.
(a) Show that P(A/B) = P(A)
(b) Find P(A U B’) Ans:(b)0.7

5 9
29. For two events A and B, P(A/B) = , P(A U B) = , P(B) = X. If P(A n B) =
11 10
2P(A n B1)
9 6X
(i) Show that P(A) =  .
10 11
(ii) Find the equation of x and deduce that X= 11 .
15

30. Events X and Y are such that P(X) =0.8, (Y)=0.6 and P(X1uY1)=0.45. Find
(a) P(X1nY1)
(b) Probability that Y will not occur if X does not occur.
Ans:(a)0.15 (b)0.75

31 A petrol station served three times as many men as women on a certain day.
Two types of fuel are available, Leaded(L) and Unleaded(U). Customers pay
by cheque or by cash.40% of the men and 80% of the women buy leaded
type. Of the men buying L, 60% pay by cheque and of the men buying U,
70% pay by cheque. Of the women buying L, half pay by cheque while those
buying U, 30% pay by cheque. Find the probability that a customer
(i) Buys leaded fuel

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(ii) Pays by cheque

(iii) Who pays by cheque for L, is a man.
Ans:(i)0.5 (ii)0.61 (iii)0.64286

32. At Buddo secondary school, the probability that the evening assembly
4
7

starts early is . If the assembly starts early, the probability that it takes a
longer time is 0.4. If the assembly starts late, the probability that it takes a
1
3

shorter time is . Find the probability that the assembly:

(i) Takes a shorter time
7 12
(ii) Starts early if it takes a shorter time. Ans: (i) (ii) .
35 17

1 1
33. The probabilities that events A and B occur are and respectively.
3 4
5
Given that the probability that the only one of them occurs is , find the
12
probability that;
(i) Both will occur
1 1
(ii) None of them will occur. Ans:(i) (ii) .
12 2

5
34. The probability that Daphine will be promoted from S.5 is and the
8
probability that Daphine’s sister will be promoted to S.5 is 3 . Find the
5
probability that they are likely to be in different classes next year. Ans: 31 .
40

35. Box A contains 3 red marbles and 5 green marbles. Box B contains 4 red
marbles and 3 green marbles. Box A is thrice as likely to be chosen as box B.
If a box is chosen at random and a marble is removed from it, find the
32
probability that box B is chosen if the marble is red? Ans: .
137

36. Events W and H are such that

3
3P(WnH)=2P(WInH) = P(WInHI)= a and P(W)= . Use a Venn diagram
5
to find
(i) The value of a

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(ii) P(WIuH). Ans:(i) a= 4 (ii) 22 .

15 45

37. Two boxes A and B contain marbles. Box A contains 2 red and 3 green
marbles while Box B contains 3 red and 1 green marble. Two marbles are
picked at random such that if the first marble comes from A, the second
should come from B and vice versa.
(i) Find the probability that both marbles are of the same color.
Ans:(i)0.45

38. Two tetrahedral dice, both numbered 1 to 4 are tossed. If one die is fair and
the other is biased such that a four is twice as likely as any other score, find
the probability that a total of four is obtained. Ans: 3 .
20
39. The table below shows three boxes and the types of pens in each box.
Box Red Blue Green
A 3 4 3
B 5 2 3
C 5 4 6

A box is chosen at random and a pen is drawn from it. If B is twice as

likely to be chosen as any other box;
(a) Find the probability of obtaining a green pen
(b) If a green pen is picked, what is the probability that it comes from box
137 60
B. Ans:(a) (b) .
440 137
THE END

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