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Probability

The document provides an overview of probability, defining it as a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring, ranging from 0 to 1. It covers concepts such as complementary events, equally likely outcomes, and the use of lists and tree diagrams to calculate probabilities. Additionally, it distinguishes between theoretical and experimental probabilities with examples to illustrate the differences.

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2 views3 pages

Probability

The document provides an overview of probability, defining it as a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring, ranging from 0 to 1. It covers concepts such as complementary events, equally likely outcomes, and the use of lists and tree diagrams to calculate probabilities. Additionally, it distinguishes between theoretical and experimental probabilities with examples to illustrate the differences.

Uploaded by

minahilwajid263
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability

1. Introduction to Probability:
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It is always a number between
0 and 1, where:
- 0 means an event will not happen.
- 1 means an event is certain to happen.
- Any value between 0 and 1 represents the likelihood of the event occurring.

Formula: P(A) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)

Example: If you roll a fair six-sided die, the probability of getting a 4 is:
P(4) = 1/6 because there is one favorable outcome (getting a 4) and six possible outcomes
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

2. Complementary Events:
Complementary events are two events where one event happening means the other cannot
happen. The probability of an event and its complement always add up to 1.

Example: If the probability of rolling a 3 is P(3) = 1/6, then the probability of not rolling a 3
(the complement) is:
P(not 3) = 1 - 1/6 = 5/6.

3. Equally Likely Outcomes:


When all outcomes of an event are equally likely, the probability is calculated using the
formula:
P(A) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of equally likely outcomes)

Example 1: Tossing a Coin:


There are 2 possible outcomes: heads (H) or tails (T).
The probability of getting a tail is P(tail) = 1/2.

Example 2: Rolling a Fair Die (Even Numbers):


The even numbers are 2, 4, and 6, so there are 3 favorable outcomes.
The probability of rolling an even number is P(even) = 3/6 = 1/2.
4. Using Lists to Show Equally Likely Outcomes:
Example 1: Rolling Two Dice:
What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 when rolling two fair dice?

List of all possible outcomes:


(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
...
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)

The outcomes where the sum is 7: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)
The probability of rolling a sum of 7 is P(sum=7) = 6/36 = 1/6.

5. Tree Diagrams:
Example 1: Tossing Two Coins
The possible outcomes for two coin tosses can be represented by a tree diagram:
Coin 1
/ \
H T
/ \ / \
H T H T

The possible outcomes are: HH, HT, TH, TT.


The probability of getting exactly one head (HT or TH) is P(one head) = 2/4 = 1/2.

6. Experimental vs Theoretical Probability:


Example 1: Experimental Probability of Rolling a 4
- Theoretical Probability: The probability of rolling a 4 on a fair six-sided die is P(4) = 1/6.

- Experimental Probability: Suppose you roll the die 30 times and get the following results:
5 times a 4.
The experimental probability is P(4) = 5/30 = 1/6.
Notice that the experimental probability matches the theoretical probability.

7. Comparing Probabilities (Experimental vs Theoretical):


Example 1: Experimental vs Theoretical Probability of Drawing a Red Card from a Deck

- Theoretical Probability: A standard deck has 52 cards, 26 of which are red (13 hearts and
13 diamonds). The probability of drawing a red card is P(red card) = 26/52 = 1/2.
- Experimental Probability: Suppose you draw 100 cards with replacement and get 52 red
cards. The experimental probability is P(red card) = 52/100 = 0.52.
As the number of trials increases, the experimental probability will approach the theoretical
probability.

Difference Between Theoretical and Experimental Probability


Feature Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability

Based on Mathematical calculations Real-life trials

Formula P(A) = Favorable outcomes / P(A) = Times event occurs /


Total outcomes Total trials

Accuracy Assumes perfect randomness Can vary due to chance

Examples:
1. Drawing an ace from a deck of 52 cards:

- Theoretical: P(Ace) = 4/52 = 1/13

- Experimental: If 52 cards are drawn and 5 aces appear, P(Ace) = 5/52

2. Flipping a coin:

- Theoretical: Probability of heads = 0.5

- Experimental: If flipped 10 times and heads appears 7 times, P(Heads) = 0.7 due to
randomness

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