Smt Sulochanadevi Singhania School, Thane

Certificate
This is to certify that the project submissions required for ISC Board Assessment is the

work of

Shri/Kumari___ Tirtha Vijaykumar Bhosale ________________Of

Std___12____ DIV___A___ Roll No___46___

UID no ________________________and has been satisfactorily completed

as per the guidelines laid down by the council.

_________________ ___________________

External Examiner Internal Examiner

Date_______________ Department of __________________

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I, Tirtha Bhosale from class 12A, thank the school, Smt. Sulochanadevi
Singhania School and the school principal. Mrs. Revathi Srinivasan Madam
for giving me an opportunity to do this project.

I thank my Maths teacher Mrs. Geetha Menon Ma’am for guiding me

throughout the project.

I would like to thank all the authors of the books and newsletters that I have
referred to, for writing such interesting information.

Lastly I would like to thank my family and friends for helping me to

complete this project successfully.
 INDEX

SR TOPIC PAGE DATE TEACHER’S

NO NO. REMARKS
1 AIM AND INTRODUCTION 1 10.9.21

2 LAW OF TOTAL 2 10.9.21

PROBABILITY
3 CONDITIONAL 5 10.9.21
PROBABILITY
4 BAYES’ THEOREM 7 10.9.21

5 CONCLUSION 10 10.9.21

6 BIBLIOGRAPHY 12 10.9.21
 AIM AND INTRODUCTION
“The theory of probabilities is simply the Science of logic quantitatively
treated.” – C.S. PEIRCE
Probability as a measure of uncertainty of events in a random
experiment. We discussed the axiomatic approach formulated
by Russian Mathematician, A.N. Kolmogorov (1903-1987)
and treated probability as a function of outcomes of the
experiment. We have also established equivalence between the
axiomatic theory and the classical theory of probability in case
of equally likely outcomes. On the basis of this relationship, we
obtained probabilities of events associated with discrete sample
spaces. We have also studied the addition rule of probability. In
this project, we shall discuss the important concept of
conditional probability of an event given that another event has
occurred, which will be helpful in understanding the Bayes'
theorem and Law of total probability. Throughout this project,
we shall take up the experiments having equally likely
outcomes, unless stated otherwise.
In Mathematics, the probability is the likelihood of an event. The probability of an
event going to happen is 1 and for an impossible event is 0. In probability theory,
there exists a fundamental rule that relates to the marginal probability and the
conditional probability, which is called the formula or the law of the total
probability. Through several distinct events, it expresses the total probability of an
event. The aim of the project is to discuss the law of total probability, Bayes'
theorem and Conditional probability, their statements along with their examples
and understand it in depth.
 LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY
For two events A and B associated with a
sample space S, the sample space can be
divided into a set A ∩ B′, A ∩ B, A′ ∩ B, A′ ∩
B′. This set is said to be mutually disjoint or
pairwise disjoint because any pair of sets in it is
disjoint. Elements of this set are better known
as a partition of sample space. This can be
represented by the Venn diagram as shown. In
cases where the probability of occurrence of
one event depends on the occurrence of other
events, we use the total probability theorem.

Let events C1, C2 . . . Cn form partitions of

the sample space S, where all the events have
a non-zero probability of occurrence. For any
event, A associated with S, according to the
total probability theorem,

Formula:
Example 1)
A person has undertaken a mining job. The probabilities of completion of job on
time with and without rain are 0.42 and 0.90 respectively. If the probability that it
will rain is 0.45, then determine the probability that the mining job will be
completed on time.
Solution: Let A be the event that the mining job will be completed on time and B
be the event that it rains. We have,
P(B) = 0.45,
P(no rain) = P(B′) = 1 − P(B) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55
By multiplication law of probability,
P(A|B) = 0.42
P(A|B′) = 0.90
Since, events B and B′ form partitions of the sample space S, by total probability
theorem, we have
P(A) = P(B) P(A|B) + P(B′) P(A|B′)
=0.45 × 0.42 + 0.55 × 0.9
= 0.189 + 0.495 = 0.684
So, the probability that the job will be completed on time is 0.684.

Example 2)

80% of people attend their primary care physician regularly; 35% of those people
have no health problems crop up during the following year. Out of the 20% of
people who don’t see their doctor regularly, only 5% have no health issues during
the following year. What is the probability a random person will have no health
problems in the following year?

Solution: Step 1: Sketch out a tree. The following tree uses the information given
in the question with the addition of two probabilities (in blue) obtained by the
complement. For example, if 5% of people do not have health problems, that
means 95% of people do have health problems.
Step 2: Multiply the probabilities for each branch. For example, the top branch has
0.8 on the first segment and 0.35 on the second. These calculations are shown in
red on the graph below:

Step 3: Find the probabilities that answer the question. For this example, we want
the probability a random person will have no health problems. If you look at the
graph, the branches leading to “no health problems” are the top branch and the
third branch down. The probabilities listed in red are 0.28 and 0.01,
So the people with no health issues are: 0.28 + 0.01 = 0.29.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is defined as

the likelihood of an event or outcome
occurring, based on the occurrence of
a previous event or outcome.
Conditional probability is calculated
by multiplying the probability of the
preceding event by the updated
probability of the succeeding, or
conditional, event.

A conditional probability would look at these two events in relationship with one
another, such as the probability that you are both accepted to college, and you are
provided with dormitory housing. It's the probability of event B given that event A
has already occurred.

Formula:
P(A/B) = No of cases favourable to both A and B
No of cases favourable to B
Example 1) -
A family has two children. What is
the probability that both the children
are boys given that at least one of
them is a boy ?
Solution: Let b stand for boy and g
for girl. The sample space of the
experiment is S = {(b, b), (g, b), (b,
g), (g, g)}
Let E and F denote the following
events :
E : ‘both the children are boys’
F : ‘at least one of the child is a boy’

Then E = {(b,b)} and F = {(b,b),

(g,b), (b,g)}
Now E ∩ F = {(b,b)} Thus P(F) = 3 4 and P (E ∩ F )= 1 /4
Therefore P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) = ¼ = 1/3
P(F) ¾

Example 2)

In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought alarm systems, 30 purchased bucket
seats, and 20 purchased an alarm system and bucket seats. If a car buyer chosen at
random bought an alarm system, what is the probability they also bought bucket
seats?

Solution: Step 1: Figure out P(A). It’s

given in the question as 40%, or 0.4.
Step 2: Figure out P(A∩B). This is the
intersection of A and B: both happening
together. It’s given in the question 20 out of
100 buyers, or 0.2.
Step 3: P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A) = 0.2 / 0.4
= 0.5.
The probability that a buyer bought bucket
seats, given that they purchased an alarm
system, is 50%.
 BAYES’ THEOREM
Bayes' theorem, named after 18th-century British
mathematician Thomas Bayes, is a mathematical formula for
determining conditional probability. The theorem provides a
way to revise existing predictions or theories (update
probabilities) given new or additional evidence. In finance,
Bayes' theorem can be used to rate the risk of lending money
to potential borrowers.

Bayes' theorem is also called Bayes' Rule or Bayes' Law and

is the foundation of the field of Bayesian statistics. This set of
rules of probability allows one to update their predictions of
events occurring based on new information that has been
received, making for better and more dynamic estimates.

Bayes' theorem thus gives the probability of an event based on

new information that is, or may be related, to that event. The formula can also be
used to see how the probability of an event occurring is affected by hypothetical
new information, supposing the new information will turn out to be true. For
instance, say a single card is drawn from a complete deck of 52 cards. The
probability that the card is a king is four divided by 52, which equals 1/13 or
approximately 7.69%. Remember that there are four kings on the deck. Now,
suppose it is revealed that the selected card is a face card. The probability the
selected card is a king, given it is a face card, is four divided by 12, or
approximately 33.3%, as there are 12 face cards in a deck.

Formula:

where:
P(A)= The probability of A occurring
P(B)= The probability of B occurring
P(A∣B)=The probability of A given B
P(B∣A)= The probability of B given A
P(A⋂B))= The probability of both A and B occurring

Example 1 :

Imagine there is a drug test that is 98%

accurate, meaning 98% of the time it shows
a true positive result for someone using the
drug and 98% of the time it shows a true
negative result for nonusers of the drug.
Next, assume 0.5% of people use the drug.
If a person selected at random tests positive
for the drug, the following calculation can
be made to see whether the probability the
person is actually a user of the drug.

Solution:
P(User/Positive ) = P(Positive/ User).P(User)
P(Positive)

= P(Positive/ User).P(User)
P(Positive/ User).P(User) + P(Positive/ Non User).P(Non User)

= (0.98 x 0.005)
[(0.98 x 0.005) + ((1 - 0.98) x (1 - 0.005))]

= 0.0049
(0.0049 + 0.0199)

= 19.76%

Bayes' theorem shows that even if a person tested positive in this scenario, it is
actually much more likely the person is not a user of the drug.​
Example 2 :

Imagine you are a financial analyst at an investment bank. According to

your research of publicly-traded companies, 60% of the companies that
increased their share price by more than 5% in the last three years
replaced their CEOs during the period.

At the same time, only 35% of the companies that did not increase their
share price by more than 5% in the same period replaced their CEOs.
Knowing that the probability that the stock prices grow by more than 5%
is 4%, find the probability that the shares of a company that fires its
CEO will increase by more than 5%.

Before finding the probabilities, you must first define the notation of the
probabilities.

P(A) – the probability that the stock price increases by 5%

P(B) – the probability that the CEO is replaced
P(A|B) – the probability of the stock price increases by 5% given that
the CEO has been replaced
P(B|A) – the probability of the CEO replacement given the stock price
has increased by 5%.

Using the Bayes’ theorem, we can find the required probability:

Thus, the probability that the shares of a company that replaces its CEO
will grow by more than 5% is 6.67%
 CONCLUSION

Conditional Probability in Real Life:

Conditional probability is used
in many areas, in fields as
diverse as calculus, insurance,
and politics. For example, the
re-election of a president
depends upon the voting
preference of voters and perhaps
the success of television
advertising—even the
probability of the opponent
making gaffes during debates!
The weatherman might state that
your area has a probability of
rain of 40 percent. However, this
fact is conditional on many
things, such as the probability
of…
●​ …a cold front coming to your area.
●​ …rain clouds forming.
●​ …another front pushing the rain clouds away.
We say that the conditional probability of rain occurring depends on all the above
events.
In everyday situations, conditional probability is a probability where additional
information is known. Finding the probability of a team scoring better in the next
match as they have a former Olympian for a coach is a conditional probability
compared to the probability when a random player is hired as a coach. The
additional information of the coach being a former olympian changes the
probability being calculated. If the additional information does not ultimately
change the probability, then the two events are independent.
Baye’s Theorem in real life:
For example, if a disease is related to age, then, using Bayes’ theorem, a person’s
age can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they have the
disease, compared to the assessment of the probability of disease made without
knowledge of the person’s age. Bayes’ rule can be applied to our everyday life
including dating and friendships. By examining your current friendships, you can
better understand the selection effects and modify your actions or behaviors in
order to form more relationships that you think are most valuable. Applying Bayes’
rule will help you analyze what you gain and what you lose by taking certain
actions. As an example, Bayes' theorem can be used to determine the accuracy of
medical test results by taking into consideration how likely any given person is to
have a disease and the general accuracy of the test.
Bayes' theorem relies on incorporating prior probability distributions in order to
generate posterior probabilities. Prior probability, in Bayesian statistical inference,
is the probability of an event before new data is collected. This is the best rational
assessment of the probability of an outcome based on the current knowledge before
an experiment is performed. Posterior probability is calculated by updating the
prior probability by using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior
probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
Hence, I conclude that we have enormous use probability in real life.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

The references for the Maths project have been taken from the following
textbooks:
●​ ISC MATHEMATICS Book 2 for class XII by O.P Malhotra
●​ NCERT CBSE Class 12 Textbook

The references for the Maths project have been taken from the following
sites:
●​ www.wikipedia.com
●​ www.investopedia.com