TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND

MANAGEMENT

By
ZZIGWA MARVIN
Department of Civil and Building Engineering
MODELLING

Forecasting Future Traffic Flows

 Basic Principles of Traffic Demand Analysis
If transport planners to construct a new roadway
or institute a program of traffic management
improvements,
◦ formulate some forecast of future traffic volumes along the
critical links.

◦ knowledge of the traffic volumes along a given link enables

the equivalent number of standard axle loadings over its
lifespan to be estimated,

◦ This further leads to the selection of a sufficient number of

standard width lanes in each direction to provide the
desired level of service to the driver.

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 Basic Principles of Traffic Demand Analysis
Measurement for travel behavior is called a trip
◦ involves movement from a single origin to a
single destination.
 Purpose;
 Time of departure and arrival;
 Mode of travel employed;
 Distance of origin from destination;
 Route travelled.
Within highway demand analysis, the justification for a trip is
found in economics and is based on what is termed the
utility derived from a trip. An individual will only make a trip
if it makes economic sense to do so,
◦ Net utility is obtained by subtracting the cost of the trip
from the utility generated by the economic activity
performed at the travellers’ destination.
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 Demand Modelling
Requires that all parameters determining the level of
activity within a highway network must first be
identified and then quantified in order that the results
output from the model have an acceptable level of
accuracy.
◦ decisions relating to that trip
 Temporal decisions
 Decisions on chosen journey destination Modal decisions
 Spatial decisions: The choice between different potential
routes is made on the basis of which has the shorter
travel time.

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 Demand Modelling
Modelling not to be cumbersome,
◦ simplifications to the complex decision making processes
within it must be imposed.
◦ Within a basic highway model, the process of simplification
can take the form of two stages:

 Stratification of trips by purpose and time of day;

with trip purpose being stratified into work and non-
work trips

 Use of separate models in series for estimating the

number of trips made from a given area

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The Four Stage Model (FSM)

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The Four Stage Model (FSM)

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Some definitions in common use

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Trip Generation-Productions & attractions -
definition

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Trip Generation-Productions & attractions -
Example

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Trip Generation-Productions & attractions -
Example

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Trip Generation-OD matrix, productions &
attractions

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Trip Generation-Trip Production

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Trip Production-Expansion factors

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Trip Production-Expansion factors

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Trip Production-Expansion factors- Example

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Trip Production-Expansion factors

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis-Example

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis-Example

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis-Example

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 Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis-Example
Two levels of classification

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Trip Production-Category (Cross-Classification)
Analysis

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Trip Production-Regression

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 Trip Production-Regression
Factors affecting trip production

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Trip Production-Regression-Example

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation
Coefficient of determination - Goodness of fit

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Trip Production-Regression-Model estimation
Forecasting and policy testing

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Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression

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 Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression

t - statistics

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 Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression

Regression analysis for trip generation

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 Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression

Regression analysis for trip generation-Zonal

regression example

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 Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression

Regression analysis for trip- Household

regression example

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 Trip Production-Regression-Multiple regression
Multiple regression example

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Matching generations and attractions

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 Matching generations and attractions
Scaling (balancing) methods

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 Matching generations and attractions
Scaling (balancing) methods

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 2.0 Trip Distribution
Objectives

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2.0 Trip Distribution

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2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Expansion/growth factor methods

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
growth factor methods

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Example- Uniform growth factor

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor -Singly Constrained Zone
Growth Factor

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor -Average zone growth
factor

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor - Example:

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor - Example:

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor - Example:

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Zone Growth Factor – Continuous Assignment
(5 marks) handle one week from today

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
The double constrained growth factor model

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
The double constrained growth factor model-
The Furness method

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
The double constrained growth factor model-
The Furness method

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
-The Furness method-Example

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
-The Furness method-Example

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
-The Furness method-Example

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
-The Furness method – Continuous
assignment.

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Growth factor methods - summary

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models (Basic Model)

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models (Basic Model)-Example

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models (Basic Model)-Example-
Manual Estimation

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models (Basic Model)-Example-
Manual Estimation

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models (Basic Model)-Example-
Manual Estimation

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Singly Constrained

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Singly Constrained

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Singly Constrained

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Singly Constrained

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained-
Example

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained-
Example……

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained-
Example……

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained-
Example……

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained- Assignment 1.
5 marks-------1 week from today

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 2.0 Trip Distribution-Methods
Gravity models - Doubly constrained- Assignment 1I.
5 marks------two weeks from today
Taking the information from the urban transportation study,
calculate the number of trips from the central
business zone (zone 1) to five other zones. Table below
shows details of the trips produced by and attracted to each
of the six zones, together with the journey times between
zone 1 and the other five zones and the model parameter is
set at (n=1.9 ).

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 3.0 Modal Split
This provides a decision as to which mode a trip
maker will use.
▪ Trips can be completed using different modes of travel.
▪ The proportion of trips undertaken by each of the
different modes is termed modal split.
▪ The simplest form of modal split is between public
transport and the private car.

The modal split is then decided on the basis of relative

time/costs. In order to simplify the computation of
modal split, journey time is taken as the
quantitative measure of the cost criterion

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 3.0 Modal Split……
The decision by a consumer regarding choice of mode
can be assumed to have its basis in the micro
economic concept of utility maximisation.
▪ The model presupposes that a trip maker selects one
particular mode over all others on the basis that it
provides the most utility in the economic sense

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 3.0 Modal Split……
Based on the definitions of utility, the probability that a
trip maker will select one mode option, m,
▪ is equal to the probability that this options utility is greater
than the utility of all other options.
The basic probability statement can be expressed as:

Therefore the probability of a commuter choosing mode, m (bus, car, train,

e.t.c.) can be represented by the following multi-nomial logit choice
model:

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 3.0 Modal Split……
Where only two modes are involved, the above
formula simplifies to the following binary logit model:

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3.0 Modal Split…… Example

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3.0 Modal Split…… Example

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 4.0 Trip Assignment
The output from this step in the process will be the assignment
of precise quantities of traffic flow to specific routes within
each of the zones.

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4.0 Trip Assignment

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Definition & applications-

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Traffic assignment - Input

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Description of networks

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4.0 Trip Assignment - Network components

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Speed-flow relationships

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Time-flow relationships

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Traffic assignment - Output

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4.0 Trip Assignment -The analogy with supply and
demand

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Traffic assignment – a two step
method

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Capacity Restraint

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Prediction of shortest/best
route
Tree Building

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Prediction of shortest/best
route
All-Or-Nothing (AON) Assignment

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Prediction of shortest/best
route
All-Or-Nothing (AON) Assignment

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Wardrop’s equilibrium

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Wardrop’s equilibrium

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Wardrop’s equilibrium

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Wardrop’s equilibrium

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Wardrop’s equilibrium

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Incremental Loading

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Incremental Loading

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Incremental Loading

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4.0 Trip Assignment -Congested Assignment
Incremental Loading

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 4.0 Trip Assignment-AON
Cont. Assignment. Hand-in 1 week from
now.

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 4.0 Trip Assignment-Incremental Loading
Cont. Assignment. 2. Hand-in 1 week
from now.

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Chapter 2-----------------!!!!!!

END

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