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Population and Development

The document discusses the determinants of fertility, highlighting the decline in fertility rates in poor countries due to factors like education and employment. It presents contrasting views on population growth, with concerns about resource strain and Malthusian fears, alongside Julian Simon's argument for human ingenuity driving innovation. Additionally, it defines 'optimum population' in various contexts and introduces the low-level equilibrium trap, emphasizing the need for significant investment to break free from stagnation in certain regions.

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Lehlabile Valentia
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2 views2 pages

Population and Development

The document discusses the determinants of fertility, highlighting the decline in fertility rates in poor countries due to factors like education and employment. It presents contrasting views on population growth, with concerns about resource strain and Malthusian fears, alongside Julian Simon's argument for human ingenuity driving innovation. Additionally, it defines 'optimum population' in various contexts and introduces the low-level equilibrium trap, emphasizing the need for significant investment to break free from stagnation in certain regions.

Uploaded by

Lehlabile Valentia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Population and Development

Determinants of Fertility:
Fertility rate refers to the average number of live births per woman of childbearing age. In
poor countries, fertility rates have dropped significantly—from over 6 births per woman in the
1950s to under 3 today. This decline is closely linked to rising per capita income, but income
alone doesn't explain everything. Even at similar income levels, countries can have very
different fertility rates due to factors like women’s education, employment opportunities, and
access to family planning.
Education plays a major role—it tends to delay marriage, increase career prospects, and raise
parents' aspirations for fewer but better-educated children. Likewise, female employment
reduces fertility by increasing the opportunity cost of having more children. The gap between
falling death rates and later declines in fertility is known as the demographic transition, a
phase many developing countries pass through as they modernize.

Costs and Benefits of Population Growth: Simon’s Challenge


Rapid population growth can be a double-edged sword. On one side, it brings serious costs—
it puts pressure on limited resources, stretches food supplies, leads to overcrowding, and can
reduce savings due to a high number of dependents who consume without producing. It may
also fuel unemployment and contributes to the explosive growth of cities, often outpacing the
development of infrastructure.
This view has deep roots, going back to Malthus, who feared that population growth would
inevitably outstrip food production due to diminishing returns in agriculture. Many modern
economists still echo those concerns, especially for low-income countries.
But then comes Julian Simon’s challenge to the pessimism. He argued that human ingenuity
is the ultimate resource. As population grows, so does demand, which can drive innovation
and technical progress—like the Green Revolution, which boosted agricultural yields. Simon
also pointed out that larger populations can create economies of scale, making it more
efficient to provide services like transport, schools, and hospitals.
Ultimately, the impact of population growth depends on the context. In some countries, it
strains development; in others, it fuels progress—depending on how well societies invest in
education, infrastructure, and innovation.

Optimum’ Population:
The term optimum population can be understood in four ways:
1. Maximizing average product per head: This refers to the population size where each
person’s productivity is at its highest. Beyond this point, resources become stretched,
and productivity per person declines.
2. Maximizing total welfare: The optimum population here is one that provides the
highest overall quality of life, considering factors like health, education, and social well-
being, not just economic output.
3. Maximum sustainable population: This defines the population size where the average
product falls just above the subsistence level, ensuring that everyone can meet their
basic needs without depletion of resources.
4. Maximizing total product: In this sense, the optimum population is the size that leads
to the largest total output, regardless of per capita productivity.
The terms “over-population” and “under-population” are meaningless unless you define what
the optimum population is. Therefore, population policies should aim to help people achieve
their desired family size, especially since in many poorer countries, women often have larger
families than they actually wish due to limited access to family planning and education.

Model of Low-Level Equilibrium Trap:


The low-level equilibrium trap is a situation where countries (or rural communities)
experience population growth that outpaces income growth. In this trap, income per person
remains stagnant or even declines because the growth in population overwhelms the
economic progress being made. The idea is that a certain threshold of income must be
reached before the forces driving economic growth can surpass the negative effects of high
population growth.
This concept, originating with Malthus, also gave rise to the idea of the “big push”—a critical
minimum level of investment and effort needed to break free from the trap. Some argue that
countries in Africa, for example, need this big push to raise literacy, improve healthcare, and
create a virtuous cycle of growth. However, this push often requires substantial external
funding to get started, as local resources may not be enough to generate the necessary
change.

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