CALCULATION METHODS FOR EGRESS PREDICTION

CHAPTER CONTENTS:
I – Introduction
II - Components of Evacuation Time
III – Estimating Evacuation Time
IV – Calculation Methods for Travel Time
V – Summary

I – Introduction:
The evaluation of an engineered design requires a balanced comparison of predicted fire
conditions and realistic evacuation predictions. Over the past decade or so, fire safety engineers
have worked with, and developed confidence in a range of calculation methods for the prediction
of fire conditions. Researchers working in the area of human behavior in fire have begun to make
real progress in the collection of data necessary for this analysis and in the development of
predictive tools that will be comparable to those used to predict the growth and spread of fire and
its effects.
 CALCULATION METHODS FOR EGRESS PREDICTION

Illustration of ASET and RSET

 CALCULATION METHODS FOR EGRESS PREDICTION

Example:
Hotel Occupancy, occupants might stop to pack their bags before they leave their rooms,
whereas, office workers may take time to shut off equipment and lock files.
Travel Time
- The final component in the calculation of evacuation time. Defined as the time to move to a
location of safety.

III – Estimating Evacuation Time:

Occupant Factor – Is the major data that surrounds the components of evacuation.
Occupant factors include characteristics of the people inside the building and these are;
 Age
 Agility
 Commitment to the task at hand
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 Familiarity with the building

 Level of training in what to do during emergencies
 And many more
Data on Delay time and Travel time for a range of occupancy types are needed. Questions
such as; What types of delay time should be expected, and how long they may last?
Factors Related to Delay Times
 Effectiveness of different cues. (Ex. Alarm devices)
 Effectiveness of training. (Shows in the study to be effective in decreasing the delay
time)
 Time of day, weather, and so on. (Ex. Storm, Darkness)
In addition to this: Hearing & mobility impairments, people engrossed in an activity
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Empirically Based Evacuation Time Equation

Based on measurements obtained in 29th evacuation drills, primarily in office buildings
ranging from 8 to 21 stories high. It was observed that evacuation times varying from
approximately 10 sec/story for buildings with small populations and approximately 20
sec/story with large populations.
Thus;
1st Equation, T = 0.70 + 0.0133p (Melinek & Booth 11 & 21 stories)
2nd Equation, T = 2 + 0.0117p (Galbreath 11 stories)
Equation one shall be applied to predict evacuation times in buildings with large populations
exceeding 800 person/m² of effective stair width.
T is the minimum time to complete an uncontrolled total evacuation by stairs
P is the actual evacuation population/m of effective stair width, measured immediately
above the discharge level of the stair.
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Equation two is applied when the population/m of effective stair width is less than 800 persons.
Hydraulic Flow Calculations
Effective Width, We. Is a boundary layer clearance from walls and other stationary obstacles
they pass going through exit routes. The useful (effective) width of an exit path is the clear
width of the path less the width of the boundary layers.
NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code), Annex A.7.3.3.2
The effective capacity of stairways is to be proportional to the effective width of the stairway which is
the nominal width minus 12in (305mm).
Clear Width is measured as follows:
 From wall to wall in corridors or hallways
 As the width of the threads in stairways
 As the actual passage width of a door in its open position
 As the space between the seats along the aisles of assembly arrangement
 As the space of the most intruding portions of the seats in a row of seats in an assembly
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Fig. 2 Measurements of Effective Width of Stairs in Relation to Walls, Handrails & Seating
 CALCULATION METHODS FOR EGRESS PREDICTION

Fig. 3 Public Corridor Effective Width

 CALCULATION METHODS FOR EGRESS PREDICTION

Density, D. Is the measurement of the degree of crowding in an evacuation route and is

usually expressed in persons/unit area.
Speed of Exiting Individuals, S. The evacuation speed of a group is a function of the
population density.
If the population density is less than about 0.05 person/ft² of exit route (20ft²/person),
individuals will move at their own pace, independent of the speed of others. If the population
density exceeds about 0.35 person/ft², no movement will take place until enough of the
crowd has passed from the crowded area to reduce the density.
Between the density limits of 0.05 and 0.35 person/ft², the relationship between speed and
density can be considered as a linear function.
S = k – akD equation 1
Where:
S = Speed along the line of travel
D = Density (person/unit area)
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k = Constant, as shown in table 2

k = k1 and a = 2.86 when calculating speed in fpm and density in person/ft²
k = k1 and a = 0.266 when calculating speed in mps and density in person/m²

Table 2. Constants for Equation 2, Evacuation Speed

Exit Route Element k1 ks
Corridor, Aisle, Ramp, Doorway 275 1.40
Stairs Riser (in) Tread (in)
7.5 10 196 1.00
7.0 11 212 1.08
6.5 12 229 1.16
6.5 13 242 1.23
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Table 3. Conversion Factors for Relating Line of Travel Distance to Vertical Travel for Various Stair Configurations
Stairs Rise (in.) (m) Tread (in.) (m) Conversion Factor
7.5 (190) 10 (254) 1.66
7.0 (178) 11 (279) 1.85
6.5 (165) 12 (305) 2.08
6.5 (165) 13 (330) 2.22
Table 4. Maximum (Unimpeded) Exit Flow Speeds
Speed along Line of Travel
Exit Route Element ft/min m/sec
Corridor, Aisle, Ramp, Doorway 235 1.19
Stair Riser (in) (m) Tread (in0 (m)
7.5 (190) 10 (254) 167 0.85
7.0 (178) 11 (279) 187 0.95
6.5 (165) 12 (305) 196 1.00
6.5 (165) 13 (330) 207 1.05
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Specific Flow, Fs. Is the flow of evacuating persons past a point in the exit route/unit of
time/unit of effective width of the rout involved.
Specific Flow, Fs = SD equation 2
Where:
Fs = Specific Flow
D = Density
S = Speed of Movement
Combining Eq’s. 1 & 2
Fs = (1 – aD)kD equation 3
Calculated Flow, Fc. Is the predicted flow rate of persons passing a particular point in an
exit route.
Fc = FsWe equation 4
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Table 4. Maximum Specific Flow, Fsm

Maximum Specific Flow
Persons/min/ft Persons/sec/m
Exit Route Element of Effective Width of Effective Width
Corridor, Aisle, Ramp, Doorway 24 1.30
Stair Riser (in) (m) Tread (in) (m)
7.5 (190) 10 (254) 17.1 0.94
7.0 (178) 11 (279) 18.5 1.01
6.5 (165) 12 (305) 20 1.09
6.5 (165) 13 (330) 21.2 1.16
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Transitions. Are any point in the exit system where the character on dimension of a route
changes or where routes merge. Typical examples are the following:
1. The point where two or more exit flows merge.
Example:
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2. The point where the corridor enters the stairway.

3. Any point where an exit route becomes wider or narrower.
Rules apply in determining the densities and flow rates following a passage of a transition
point:
1. The flow after a transition point is a function, within limits, of the flow(s) entering the
transition point.
2. The calculated flow, Fc, following a transition point cannot exceed the max. specific flow,
Fsm, for the route element involved multiplied by the effective width, We, of that element.
3. Within the limits of rule 2, the specific flow, Fs, of the route departing from a transition
point is determined by the following equations:
a) For cases involving one flow into and one flow out of a transition point:
Fs(out) = Fs(in) We(in) / We(out) equation 8
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Example:
Given:
1. There are 9 floors, 300ft x 80ft
2. Floor to floor height is 12ft
3. Two stairways, located at ends of building (no dead ends)
4. Each stair is 44in wide (tread width) with handrails protruding 2.5in
5. Stair riser are 7in wide; treads are 11in high
6. There are two 4ft x 8ft landings per floor of stairway travel
7. There is one 36in clear width door at each stairway entrance and exit
8. The first floor does not exit through stairways
9. Each floor has a single 8ft wide corridor extending the full length of each floor. Corridors terminate at
stairway entrance doors
10. There is a population of 300 persons/floor
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Solution: (Procedure)
1. Assumptions.
The population will use all exit facilities in the optimum balance; all occupants start egress at the same
time.
2. Estimate flow density, D, speed, S, Specific flow, Fs, Effective width, We, initial calculated flow, Fc,
typical for each floor.
Divide each floor in half to produce two exit calculation zones, each 150ft long. Determine the density, D
and speed, S, if all occupants try to move through the corridor at the same time, 150 person moving
through 150ft of an 8ft wide corridor.
Density, D = 150person/1200ft² corridor area
D = 0.125person/ft²
from equation 1;
Speed, S = k-akD
from Table 2; k = 275
S = 275 – (2.86 x 275 x 0.125)
S = 177ft/min
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from Table 1 (Boundary Layer Width),

Effective Width, We = 36 – 12 = 24in (2ft)
from equation 8a,
Fs(door) = (Fs(corridor)/ We(corridor)) / We(door)
Fs(door) = (22 x 7)/ 2 = 77persons/min/ft effective width
Since, Fsm ˂ Fs, value of Fsm will be use in the calculation.
from Table 4, Fsm = 24persons/min/ft effective width
from equation 4, initial calculated flow is
Fc = FsWe = 24 x 2 = 48persons/min through a 36in door.
Since Fc (corridor) = 148 ˃ Fc(exit door), queuing is expected.
Rate of queue buildup = 148 - 48 = 100persons/min
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6. Track Egress flow.

Assumption : All persons start to evacuate at time zero, congested flow will reach the
stairway in 30seconds.
Initial Flow Speed, S = 177ft/min.
At 30sec, flow starts through stairway doors, Fc through doors is 48persons/min for the
next 19 sec. At 49seconds, 120persons are in each stairway, and 135 are waiting in a
queue at each stairway entrance door.
The remaining 135 persons in waiting at each stairway entrance on the 9th floor enter
through the door at the rate of 48persons/min. The rate of flow through the stair is regulated
by the 48persons/min rate of flow of the discharge exit doors. The descent rate of the flow is
19 sec/floor.
Thus:
@ 218sec (3.6min) All persons have evacuated the 9th floor
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@ 1316sec (21.9min) All persons have evacuated the 3rd floor

@ 1335sec (22.3min) The end of the flow reaches the 2nd floor
@ 1499sec (25.0min) All persons have evacuated the 2nd floor
@ 1518sec (25.3min) All persons have evacuated the building
V - Summary:
It is critically important in estimating the time to evacuate a building that attention be paid to
more than the travel time necessary to clear spaces. The total time to evacuate a building,
or to bring occupants to a location of safety, must include delay times before movement or
refuge action begin. Whether the estimates are based on data or on calculations, and
regardless of whether the calculations are done by hand or by computer, a valid total
evacuation time estimate cannot be estimated without considerations of time to start. The
characteristics of the building occupants and of the building itself will govern the choice of
appropriate delay time estimates, as well as the calculation of travel time.