Rate Time Analysis
Rate Time Analysis
Mohan Kelkar
After Ozkan
Rate Time Analysis - 2 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Fractures can be ….
Infinite Conductivity
» No resistance inside fracture
Finite Conductivity
» Pressure drop inside fracture
Uniform Flux
» The amount of fluid entering per unit length
of fracture is uniform
Early Times
Fracture Flow
Bi-Linear Flow
Intermediate Times
Linear flow
Elliptical Flow
Late Times
Radial Flow
After Ozkan
Rate Time Analysis - 10 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Mass Balance in 2D
Dy
Dx
0.00708𝑘ℎ
𝑝𝐷 = 𝑝𝑖 − 𝑝(𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑡) 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟𝑠
𝑞𝜇𝐵
0.000703𝑘ℎ
𝑝𝐷 = 𝑚(𝑝𝑖 ) − 𝑚(𝑝 𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑡 ) 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟𝑠
𝑞𝑇
0.000703𝑘ℎ 2
𝑝𝐷 = 𝑝𝑖 − 𝑝(𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑡)2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟𝑠
𝑞𝜇𝑇
0.006328𝑘𝑡
𝑡𝐷 = 2 𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
∅𝜇𝑐𝑡 𝑋𝑓
𝑥 𝑦
𝑥𝐷 = ; 𝑦𝐷 =
𝑋𝑓 𝑋𝑓
𝑝𝑤𝐷 = 𝑝𝐷 𝑎𝑡 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑤𝑓
Rate Time Analysis - 14 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Dimensionless IBVP
𝜕 2 𝑝𝐷 𝜕 2 𝑝𝐷 𝜕𝑝𝐷
2 + 2 = 𝜕𝑡
𝜕𝑥𝐷 𝜕𝑦𝐷 𝐷
𝑝𝐷 𝑥𝐷 , 𝑦𝐷 , 𝑡𝐷 = 0 𝑎𝑠 𝑥𝐷 , 𝑦𝐷 → ∞
𝑝𝐷 𝑥𝐷 , 𝑦𝐷 , 𝑡𝐷 → 0 = 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥𝐷 > 0, 𝑦𝐷 < ∞
𝑋𝑓2
𝑖𝑓 𝑤𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑡𝐷𝑟𝑤 = 𝑡𝐷 2
𝑟𝑤
𝑟𝑤
𝑝𝑤𝐷 𝑡𝐷 ≈ 0.5 ln 𝑡𝐷𝑟𝑤 + 0.80907 + 1 + 𝑙𝑛 +𝜎
𝑋𝑓
We can define the effective well bore radius, rw’ by
writing the above equation
𝑟𝑤 exp(1 + 𝜎)
𝑝𝑤𝐷 𝑡𝐷 ≈ 0.5 ln 𝑡𝐷𝑟𝑤 + 0.80907 + 𝑙𝑛
𝑋𝑓
For the second term in the above equation to be zero,
𝑋𝑓 𝑋𝑓
𝑟𝑤′ = = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦
exp(1+𝜎) 2
𝑡𝐷
𝑝𝑤𝐷 ≈
𝐶𝐷
Plot of pwD vs. tD should be a straight
line and will have a slope of 1 on log-log
plot
On real scale, plot of Dp (or Dm(p))vs. t
should be a straight line with a slope of
1 on log-log plot
Rate Time Analysis - 21 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Fracture Linear Flow
This approximation
is valid for both
2
vertical and
horizontal wells
𝑘𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹
For constant BHP 𝑦𝑒 = 0.19
∅𝜇𝑖 𝐶𝑡𝑖
Behmanesh et al., SPE 168981
Rate Time Analysis - 28 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Analysis
𝑞𝐵 𝜇
𝑋𝐹 𝑘 = 19.9 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚ℎ ∅𝑐𝑡
𝐵 𝜇
𝑋𝐹 𝑘 = 31.3 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚ℎ∆𝑝 ∅𝑐𝑡
𝐵 𝜇
𝑋𝐹 𝑘 = 19.9 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚ℎ ∅𝑐𝑡
𝑞𝑇 1
𝑋𝐹 𝑘 = 200.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚ℎ ∅𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑇 1
𝑋𝐹 𝑘 = 315 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚ℎ∆𝑚(𝑝) ∅𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑋𝐹 𝑘
𝑇 1
= 200.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚ℎ ∅𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑞𝐵𝑆𝑜𝑖
𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝑇𝐵 = 8.96 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚𝑐𝑡 𝐵𝑜𝑖
𝐵𝑆𝑜𝑖
𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝑇𝐵 = 19.9 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑐𝑡 ∆𝑝𝐵𝑜𝑖
𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝑇𝐵
𝐵𝑆𝑜𝑖
= 8.96 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑐𝑡 𝐵𝑜𝑖
𝑞𝑇𝑆𝑔𝑖 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹
𝑂𝐺𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝐶𝐹 = 90.25 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚𝐵𝑔𝑖 𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑇𝑆𝑔𝑖 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹
𝑂𝐺𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝐶𝐹 = 200.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚∆𝑚(𝑝)𝐵𝑔𝑖 𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑂𝐺𝐼𝑃 𝑆𝐶𝐹
𝑇𝑆𝑔𝑖 𝑡𝑒𝐿𝐹
= 90.25 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝐵𝑔𝑖 𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖
𝑞𝐵𝜇
𝑘 = 162.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚𝑝 ℎ
𝐵𝜇
𝑘 = 162.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑝 ℎ∆𝑝
𝐵𝜇
𝑘 = 162.6 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑝 ℎ
𝑞𝑇
𝑘 = 1638 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑚𝑝 ℎ
𝑇
𝑘 = 1638 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑝 ∆𝑚 𝑝 ℎ
𝑇
𝑘 = 1638 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝐻𝑃
𝑚𝑝 ℎ
𝑆
𝑚(𝑝𝑤𝑓 )|𝑡=𝑜 − 𝑚(𝑝𝑤𝑓 )|𝑡=1 ℎ𝑟 0.006328𝑘
= 1.151 − 𝑙𝑜𝑔 − 0.351
𝑚𝑝 ∅𝜇𝑐𝑡 𝑟𝑤2
q2-q1
q2
q
q
q1
q1
t1 t1
t t
𝑝𝑤𝐷 ≈ 𝜋𝑡𝐷
𝑑𝑝𝑤𝐷 1 𝜋 𝑑𝑝𝑤𝐷 1
= → 𝑡𝐷 = 𝜋𝑡𝐷
𝑑𝑡𝐷 2 𝑡𝐷 𝑑𝑡𝐷 2
This means that a log-log plot of derivative vs. tD
should provide a straight line with a slope of ½.
Also, log-log plot of pwD vs. tD should also provide a
straight line with a slope of ½.
1.40E+08
1.20E+08
1.00E+08
8.00E+07
6.00E+07
4.00E+07
2.00E+07
0.00E+00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
t, hr
1.00E+08
Dm(p), Dm(p)'
Pseudo-radial
1.00E+07 Flow
Linear Flow
1.00E+06
1.00E+05
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
t, hr
1.80E+08
1.60E+08
m(pi) - m(pwf), psi2/cp
1.40E+08
1.20E+08
1.00E+08
8.00E+07
6.00E+07
Slope ≈ 9x107
4.00E+07
2.00E+07
0.00E+00
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
t, hr
1637𝑞𝑇
𝑘=
𝑚𝑝 ℎ
1637 × 1000 × 660
= 7
= 0.4 𝑚𝑑
9 × 10 × 30
1.80E+08
1.60E+08
m(pi) - m(pwf), psi2/cp
1.40E+08
1.20E+08
1.00E+08
8.00E+07
6.00E+07
4.00E+07
2.00E+07
0.00E+00
0 10 20 30 40
t1/2, hr1/2
𝑞𝑇 1 1
𝑋𝐹 = 200.6
𝑚ℎ ∅𝜇𝑖 𝑐𝑡𝑖 𝑘
1,000 × 660 1
= 200.6 ×
4.9 × 107 × 30 0.15 × 130.5 × 106 × 0.026 × 0.4
= 200 𝑓𝑡
6000
5000
4000
p, psia
3000
2000
1000
0
22-Nov-13 2-Mar-14 10-Jun-14 18-Sep-14 27-Dec-14 6-Apr-15 15-Jul-15 23-Oct-15
Time
Rate Time Analysis - 74 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Pressure and Pressure Derivative
1.00E+10
1.00E+09
1.00E+08
Dp, Dp'
1.00E+07
1.00E+06
1.00E+05
1.00E+04
0.01 1 100 10000
t, hours
www.Barree.net/fracture_advances/slide180.htm
Rate Time Analysis - 78 Evaluation of Shale Gas
78 Reservoirs
DFIT Rate & Pressure Response
Fracture Initiation
Pressure Casing Pressure
Injection Rate
PRESSURE
Fracture Extension
RATE
Pressure
During injection
» Can obtain closure pressure
» Can determine leak-off
After Closure Analysis (ACA)
» Can determine k and pi
» Can determine fracture length
We will only concentrate on ACA
After Jones
Rate Time Analysis - 83 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Simplified ACA: Example
Impulse Test Log-Log Diagnostic Plot
Sqrt(t) Fracture Growth, Length Resession, Wellbore Storage
10000
P-Pi
1000 Log-Derivative
Dp or dDp/dlog(Dt)
Unit Slope
100
10
Dt, hrs
2880 y = 3,915.60x + 2,800.51
R² = 1.00
2860
Pressure, psi
2840 Pressure
2820
Linear
(Pressure)
2800
k = 0.0101 md
2780
2760
0.0E+00 5.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.5E-02 2.0E-02 2.5E-02
1/Dt, hrs-1
17060QgI T ( mz ) i
p
pdp p
Dm( p) 2 2 i ( p pi ) p pi *
1
mz ( mz )i
pi
2khpi t
After Jones
Rate Time Analysis - 85 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Finite Conductivity Fracture
k
w/2 kf
xF
FcD = kfw/kxF
1/4
𝜋 𝑡𝐷
𝑝𝑤𝐷 =
2𝐶𝑓𝐷 0.906402
In Field Units
97.6𝑞𝐵𝜇
∆𝑝 = 1/4
𝑡 1/4 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠
ℎ 𝑘𝑓2 𝑤 2 𝑘∅𝑐𝑡 𝜇
983.3𝑞𝑇 1/4 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠
∆𝑚(𝑝 ) = 1/4
𝑡
ℎ 𝑘𝑓2 𝑤 2 𝑘∅𝑐𝑡 𝜇
A log-log plot of both Dp and Dp’ will exhibit a slope of ¼ for bi-
linear flow. A plot of either Dp or Dm(p) vs. t1/4 should provide a
straight line. From the line, we can calculate kf or fracture
permeability if k is known.
NO-FLOW
BOUNDARY
OUTER RESERVOIR
HYDRAULIC k O , f O , ctO
FRACTURE
k F , wF , f F , ctF
xe
INNER RESERVOIR
NATURALLY
xF FRACTURED
k f , f f , ctf
k m , f m , c tm
HORIZONTAL WELL
Early Times
» Well bore dominated flow
» Bi-Linear Flow
Intermediate Times
» Linear Flow in Stimulated Region
» Boundary Dominated Flow in Stimulated
Region (fractures interfere with each other)
Late Times
» Linear Flow in Un-stimulated Region
Rate Time Analysis - 95 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
In Practice
Linear Flow
» Analysis is already discussed, we can
obtain xF√k and xF if k is known
Boundary Dominated Flow
» A plot of pwD or p’wD vs. tD should provide a
straight line with a unit slope
» From the slope, we can obtain the volume
of stimulated region
Rate Time Analysis - 97 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Boundary Dominated Flow
(BDF)
Time Analysis - 98
Rate Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Field Example
1.E+07
1.E+06
d(Dm(pwf)/qsc)/dln tmb
1.E+05
Half-slope line
Unit-slope line
1.E+04
1.E+03
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04
SPE 125043 Brown et al., 2009
tmb, d
Rate Time Analysis - 101 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Linear Flow Analysis
9.E+05
8.E+05
7.E+05
Dm(pwf)/qsc, psi2-d/cp-Mscf
6.E+05
5.E+05
4.E+05
3.E+05
1.E+05
0.E+00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
t1/2
mb , d1/2
SPE 125043 Brown et al., 2009
Rate Time Analysis - 102 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
BDF (or PSS) Analysis
9.E+05
8.E+05
7.E+05
Dm(pwf)/qsc, psi2-d/cp-Mscf
6.E+05
4.E+05
3.E+05
2.E+05
1.E+05
0.E+00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
tmb, d SPE 125043 Brown et al., 2009
Rate Time Analysis - 103 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Unified Scaling Theory
1.00E+06
t = 500 days
1.00E+05
1 10 100 1000
Time, Days
600,000
500,000
400,000
Gp, MSCF
300,000
200,000
slope = 35,185
100,000
0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
t1/2, days 1/2
𝑚𝐿 35,185
𝐸𝑈𝑅 = 𝜏= 500 =
0.645 0.645
1,219,790 𝑀𝑆𝐶𝐹
The total recoverable gas is 1.2 BCF
Start of BDF
1
q Dd
0.1
0.01
0.001
1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03
tDd
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1000fmc r 2
t pss t e
k
t pss
)
1,0000.05)0.018) 200 10 6 1500)
2
qi q
Cumulative production Np
D
qi qab
Ultimate Recovery Np
D
Remaining Reserves qcurrent qab
Np
D
Check for consistent units: q and D
Equation:
• q is rate at time t in future
qi
q • qi initial rate
1 Di t •Di initial nominal decline
• t time
Note: For this decline to be used the plot of 1/q vs. t must
be a straight line. The slope of the line is Di/qi.
qi qi
Cumulative production Np ln
Di q
qi qi
Ultimate Recovery Np ln
Di qab
𝐷𝑖
𝐷=
Decline Rate 1 + 𝐷𝑖 𝑡
qi q
1b
Cumulative production Np 1 2
Di 1 b ) q i
qi q
1b
Ultimate Recovery Np 1 ab
Di 1 b ) q i
𝐷𝑖
𝐷=
1 + 𝑏𝐷𝑖 𝑡
Decline Rate
40000 3000
35000
FBHP 2500
2000
Rate (MSCF/day)
25000
20000 1500
15000
1000
10000
500
5000
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Time (Days)
𝑞 = 𝑞𝑖 1 + 𝑏𝐷𝑖 𝑡 −1/𝑏
1 𝑑𝑞 𝐷𝑖
𝐷 𝑡 =− =
𝑞 𝑑𝑡 (1 + 𝑏𝐷𝑖 𝑡)
Notice that for b =2, the equation for q
approximates linear flow and for b=4, the equation
approximates bi-linear flow
Once D reaches a terminal value, we use 𝑞 =
𝑞𝑖 𝑒 −𝐷𝑡 till we reach an abandonment rate
𝑞 = 𝑞𝑖 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − 𝑡/𝜏 𝑛
Three unknowns in this equation are qi, t and t. Need to
calculate through trial and error.
𝜏 1 1 𝑡 𝑛
𝐺𝑝 = 𝑞𝑖 Γ −Γ ,( )
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝜏
𝜏 1
𝐸𝑈𝑅 = 𝑞𝑖 Γ
𝑛 𝑛
𝑞 𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − 𝑡/𝜏 𝑛
=
𝐺𝑝 𝜏 1 1 𝑡 𝑛
Γ −Γ ,
𝑛 𝑛 𝜏
∞
Where Γ 𝑛 = 0 𝑥 𝑛−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = (𝑛 − 1)Γ(𝑛 − 1);
∞
Γ 𝑛, 𝑧 = න 𝑥 𝑛−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥
𝑧 Valko, SPE 119369
Rate Time Analysis - 137 Evaluation of Shale Gas
Reservoirs
Power Law Exponential Method
𝑞 = 𝑞𝑖 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝐷𝑖 𝑡 𝑛 − 𝐷∞ 𝑡
𝐷 = 𝐷∞ + 𝐷𝑖 𝑛𝑡 𝑛−1
No closed form solution for Gp is
available. There are 4 unknowns in
this equation: Di, n, D∞ and qi
−𝑚
𝑎
𝑞 = 𝑞1 𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝑡 1−𝑚 − 1
(1 − 𝑚)
𝑞1 𝑎
𝐺𝑝 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝑡 1−𝑚 − 1
𝑎 1−𝑚
𝑞
= 𝑎𝑡 −𝑚
𝐺𝑝
𝑞
By plotting versus t on a log-log plot, one can
𝐺𝑝
calculate a and m. If m = 1.0, it becomes a linear flow
model.
103
3
2
102
3
Op Gas Rate (Mscfd)
101
3
2
1.0
3
2
10-1
3
2
10-2
0 Rate Time Analysis - 160
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400
Normalized Time (month)
420 440 460 480 Evaluation of Shale Gas
500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 660 680 700 720 740
Reservoirs
Drawbacks of the Approach