Iloilo Science and Technology University

EMath 3
Engineering Data Analysis

Civil Engineering Department

College of Engineering and Architecture
2022 - 2023
 OUTLINE
Sample Space and Relationships among
Events

Counting Rules Useful in Probability

Rules of Probability

M2: Probability
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Suppose a coin tossed then we get

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two possible outcomes either a

‘head’ (H) or a ‘tail’ (T), and it is
impossible to predict whether the
result of a toss will be a ‘head’ or
‘tail’.

What chances do we have to get a

tail or head?
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…….is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many

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events cannot be predicted with total certainty.

Through Probability, we will be able to predict the chance

that an event could occur.

It can range from 0 to 1 (inclusive), where 0 means it is

impossible for an event to happen and 1 means a certain event
could happen.
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𝑓 Where:
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𝑃= f = number of favorable outcomes

𝑁 N= total number of outcomes
Element
Sample Space

Each outcome in a sample space is called a sample point. It is also

called an element or a member of the sample space.
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𝑓 Where:
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𝑃= f = number of favorable outcomes

𝑁 N= total number of outcomes

Sample Space
𝑓
𝑃=
𝑆
The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to 1.
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𝑓 What chances do we have to get a tail or head?

𝑃= There are only two outcomes for
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𝑆 tossing a coin, and the sample space is:

If tail… If head…
1 1
𝑃= 𝑃=
2 2
𝑃 = 50% 𝑃 = 50%
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If a coin is tossed three times

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What will be the sample space?

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HHH (0.125)
0.5
HHT (0.125)
HTH (0.125)
0.5
HTT (0.125)
0.5
THH (0.125)
THT (0.125)

0.5
TTH (0.125)
TTT (0.125)
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If a coin is tossed three times

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What will be the sample space?

What is the probability that you’ll

get HHH?
1
𝑃= =12.5%
8
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If a coin is tossed three times

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What will be the sample space?

What is the probability that you’ll get head

twice and tail once (without order)?
3
𝑃= =37.5%
8
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Consider rolling a fair die twice and

observing the dots facing up on each
roll.
What will be the sample space?
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a subset of a sample space.

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Suppose, if we want to find only the outcomes which have at

least two heads; then the set of all such possibilities can be
given as:
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a subset of a sample space.

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What is the event that we can have a sum of 6 in

tossing two die?
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What is the event that we can have a sum of 6 in

tossing two die?
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1. Impossible and Sure

if the probability of occurrence of an event is 0, such an event
is called an impossible event
if the probability of occurrence of an event is 1, it is
called a sure event.
the empty set ϕ is an impossible event and the
sample space S is a sure event.
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2. Simple
If the event E has only one sample point of a sample space,
it is called a simple event or an Elementary Event.
It is an event that consists of exactly one outcome.
For example, if S = {56 , 78 , 96 , 54 , 89}, what is the
possibility of 78 appearing in the choices?

E = {78} then E is a simple event.

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3. Compound
As opposed to a simple event, if there is more than one
sample point on a sample space, such an event is called
Compound Event. It involves combining two or more
events together and finding the probability of such a
combination of events.
For example: When we throw a die, the possibility of an even number
appearing is a compound event, as there is more than one possibility, there
are three possibilities i.e. E = {2,4,6}.
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4. Independent and Dependent

If the occurrence of any event is completely unaffected by the

occurrence of any other event, such events are known as an
independent event in probability and the events which are
affected by other events are known as dependent events.
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4. Independent and Dependent

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5. Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive events when

both cannot occur at the same time. Mutually exclusive
events always have a different outcome. Two simple events
are always mutually exclusive, whereas two compound events
may or may not be.
two events don’t have any common point
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5. Mutually Exclusive Events

For example, if S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} and E1, E2 are two

events such that E1 consists of numbers less than 3 and E2
consists of numbers greater than 4.

So, E1 = {1,2} and E2 = {5,6} .

Then, E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive.

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5. Mutually Exclusive Events

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5. Mutually Exclusive Events

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E1U E2 denotes E1 OR E2
E1 ∩ E2 denotes E1 and E2
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5. Mutually Exclusive
Intersection (and) of two
sets A and B is the set of all
intersection elements which are
common.

intersection Union (or) of two sets A

and B is the set of all
those elements which
union are either in A or in B
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E1U E2 denotes E1 OR E2

Union and Intersection

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Determine the number of elements in A union

n(A U B) = n(A) + n(B) - n(A ∩ B).
B if n(A) = 15, n(B) = 7 and n(A ∩ B) = 3.
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6. Exhaustive Events
A set of events is called exhaustive if all the events together
consume the entire sample space.
Example: Let us consider the experiment of throwing a die.
Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Assume that A, B and C are the events associated with
this experiment. Also, let us define these events as:
A be the event of getting a number greater than 3
B be the event of getting a number greater than 2 but less than 5
C be the event of getting a number less than 3
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6. Exhaustive Events
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S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E(A) = {4, 5, 6}
E(B) = {3, 4}
E(C) = {1, 2}
E(A) ⋃ E(B) ⋃ E(C) = {4, 5, 6} ⋃ {3, 4} ⋃ {1, 2}
E(A) ⋃ E(B) ⋃ E(C) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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6. Exhaustive Events
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S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E(A) = {4, 5, 6} Therefore, A, B, and C, are
E(B) = {3, 4} called exhaustive events.
E(C) = {1, 2}
E(A) ⋃ E(B) ⋃ E(C) = {4, 5, 6} ⋃ {3, 4} ⋃ {1, 2}
E(A) ⋃ E(B) ⋃ E(C) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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7. Complementary Events
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For any event A, there exists

another event A‘ which shows
the remaining elements of
the sample space S. A’
denotes the complementary
event of A.
A’ = S – A Event A and A’ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
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7. Complementary Events
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➢ occur when there are only two outcomes

➢ two events are said to be complementary
when one event occurs if and only if the
other does not take place.
➢ the complement means the exact opposite
of an event.
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7. Complementary Events
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If a dice is rolled then the sample space S is

given as S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }. If event E1
represents all the outcomes which is greater
than 4, then E1 = {5, 6} and E1‘ = {1, 2, 3, 4}.
Thus E1‘ is the complement of the event E1
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7. Complementary Events
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The events "it rains" and "it doesn't rain" are

complementary because:
- only one of the two events can occur
- no other event can occur
Therefore, these two events are
complementary.
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7. Complementary Events
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Consider a bag only containing 4 white balls and 5

black balls. We are interested in whether a ball
picked from the bag is white or black.

The events "white" and "black" are

complementary.
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Multiplication rule
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If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if

of each of these ways a second operation can be
performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can
be performed together in n1n2 ways.
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Multiplication rule
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Example:

(a) A businessman has 4 dress shirts and 7 ties. How many

different shirt/tie outfits can he create?
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Multiplication rule
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Example:

(b) How many sample points are in the sample space when a
coin is flipped 4 times?
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Repetition of an Event
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If one event with n outcomes occurs r times with repetition

allowed, then the number of ordered arrangements is nr
Example 1 What is the number of arrangements if a die is rolled:

(a) 2 times?
(b) 3 times?
(c) 4 times
(d) r times?
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Example 2
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(a) How many different car number plates are possible with 3
letters followed by 3 digits?
(b) How many of these number plates begin with ABC?
(c) If a plate is chosen at random, what is the probability that it
begins with ABC?
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Factorial
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Example
(a) In how many ways can 6 people be arranged in a row?
(b) How many arrangements are possible if only 3 of them are
chosen?
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Permutation (Arrangements)
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The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is:

That is to say, there are n(n-1)… (n-r +1) ways to select r items from n available items
without replacement.
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Example 1. A math debating team consists of 4 speakers.

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(a) In how many ways can all 4 speakers be arranged in a row for a
photo?
(b) How many ways can the captain and vice-captain be chosen?

Example 2. A flutter on the horses. There are 7 horses in a race.

(a) In how many different orders can the horses finish?

(b) How many trifectas (1st , 2nd and 3rd) are possible?
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Example 3. In how many ways can 5 boys and 4 girls be arranged

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on a bench if
(a) there are no restrictions?
(b) boys and girls alternate?
(c) boys and girls are in separate groups?
(d) Anne and Jim wish to stay together?

Example 4. How many different arrangements of the word

PARRAMATTA are possible?
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Circular Arrangements
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Circular arrangements are permutations in which objects are arranged in a

circle. Consider arranging 5 objects (a, b, c, d, e) around a circular table.

The are different in a line but

are identical around a circle.
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Circular Arrangements
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To calculate the number of ways

in which n objects can be
arranged in a circle, we arbitrarily
fix the position of one object, so
the remaining (n-1) objects can
be arranged as if they were on a
straight line in (n-1)! ways.
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Example 1. At a dinner party 6 men and 6 women sit at a round

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table. In how many ways can they sit if:

(a) there are no restrictions
(b) men and women alternate

Example 2. At a dinner party 6 men and 6 women sit at a round

table. In how many ways can they sit if:
(a) Ted and Carol must sit together
(b) Bob, Ted and Carol must sit together
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Combination (Unordered Selections)

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NOTE!!
(1) We must have a total of n different items available.
(2) We must select r of the n items (without replacement).
(3) We must consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same.
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Example 1. How many ways can a basketball team of 5 players be

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chosen from 8 players?

Example 2. A committee of 5 people is to be chosen from a group

of 6 men and 4 women. How many committees are possible if
(a) there are no restrictions?
(b) one particular person must be chosen on the committee?
(c) one particular woman must be excluded from the committee?
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Example 3. In a hand of poker, 5 cards are dealt from a regular

pack of 52 cards.
(a) What is the total possible number of hands if there are no
restrictions?
(b) In how many of these hands are there:
(a) 4 kings
(b) 2 clubs and 3 hearts
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1. You roll a single die numbered from 1 to 6. What is the probability of rolling an odd number, expressed as
a fraction?
2. 2. A jar contains 12 caramels, 7 mints and 16 dark chocolates. What is the probability of selecting a mint
expressed as a fraction?
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3. The numbers 4 through 14 are placed in a bowl and drawn at random then replaced after being drawn. Is
it likely or unlikely you will draw a number less than 7?
4. In a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of drawing a spade expressed as a decimal?
5. The letters that form the word MISSISSIPPI are placed in a bowl. What are the odds of choosing a “P”?
6. In a deck of 52 playing cards, are the odds favorable that you will draw a heart or a diamond?
7. There is a jar of jelly beans with the following flavors: 12 are grape, 17 are blueberry, 5 are pineapple and
13 are coconut. What is the probability, expressed as a percent, of selecting either a grape or blueberry
replacing it and then a coconut or pineapple?
8. There are 29 students available to represent the upperclassmen at a fair. 13 are juniors and 16 are
seniors. What is the probability, as a percent that a senior and junior will be chosen?
9. In a deck of 52 playing cards what is the probability, as a fraction, of drawing a picture card (A,K,Q,J)
replacing it and then drawing either a heart or a diamond?
10. There are 12 men on the basketball team. 2 are centers, 5 are guards, the rest a forwards. What is the
probability, as a percent, that out of two players chosen at random they would be a guard and a forward?
Iloilo Science and Technology University

¡Gracias!
Civil Engineering Department
College of Engineering and Architecture
2022 - 2023