Climate System - Climate Forcings - Saqib - F - 1
Climate System - Climate Forcings - Saqib - F - 1
Lecture-1
Why Study Climate?
• Determines the type and location of human-managed ecosystems, such as agricultural farmlands.
• Affects the weathering of rock, the type of soil that forms,
and the rate of soil formation.
• Affects people and society
• Helps to determine the quantity and quality of water available for
human use.
• Determines the severity of droughts, storms, and floods.
• Largely determines the nature and locations of biomes -major terrestrial ecosystems, defined based
on their plant communities.
Lecture-2
Biomes of the World Depend on Climate
• A biome is a
community of plants
and animals that have
common
characteristics for the
environment they
exist in.
• They can be found
over a range of
continents.
• Biomes are distinct
biological
communities that
have formed in
response to a shared 3 Lecture-2
Biomes of the World: A Function of Climate
Lecture-2
4
Climate vs. Weather: Climate is what you expect,
Weather is what you get/experience
Weather
• The actual state of the atmosphere in a period of several hours up to a few days
(in a given place) (Gramelsberger & Feichter, 2011).
• Weather can be defined as: “State of the atmosphere with respect to heat
or cold, wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness. Also,
weather is the meteorological day-to-day variations of the atmosphere and
their effects on life and human activity. It includes temperature, pressure,
humidity, clouds, wind, precipitation and fog.” From: Weather Glossary and
Terminology
Lecture-2
Climate vs. Weather: Climate is what you expect,
Weather is what you get/experience
Climate
• A statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities
over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years (IPCC).
• The classical period is 30 years, which are most often surface variables such as
temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state,
including a statistical description, of the climate system (World Meteorological
Organization (WMO)).
Lecture-2
Characteristics of Weather and Climate
• Temperature
• Wind
• Clouds
• Precipitation
• Humidity
• Storms (cyclones!)
Lecture-3
Meteorology – the Study of Weather
• The field of atmospheric science which is most well-known and of practical importance to the
general public is meteorology, the study of weather.
• Meteorology is usually concerned only with the lowest region of the atmosphere, the troposphere.
• Weather is influenced not only by vertical, diurnal, and seasonal variations of atmospheric density
and temperature, and of solar heating, but also by horizontal variations over Earth’s surface.
• Atmospheric winds and circulation are influenced by Earth’s rotation, and by surface conditions (i.e.
whether land or sea, topography, and surface temperature).
• The advent of weather-monitoring satellites, and of supercomputers, have greatly facilitated the
science and application of meteorology in recent years.
Lecture-3
Climatology – The Study of Weather Statistics,
Patterns, and Trends
• Climatology, the study of climate, differs from meteorology in that climate is the long-
term pattern of temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, etc. at a particular location,
over periods of a year or more, whereas weather is the current (or very near-term) state
of affairs at the location or region of interest.
• For example, the climate in Antarctica is quite different from that in the Sahara Desert,
or the Amazon river basin.
• The latter two are also quite different from each other, despite being at nearly the same
latitudes on Earth.
• Climate can, however, change over long periods of time, and the topic of climate change
is currently of practical importance, because of the known or potential effects of human
activity on local, regional, or even world-wide climates.
Lecture-3
The Earth’s Climate System
• Light from the Sun is absorbed by land and water, and is converted to
heat.
• Some heat is emitted back into space as radiant heat, just as heat is
radiated from hot pavement on a July day.
• Some of this radiant heat is absorbed by water vapor and clouds,
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other trace atmospheric
gases.
• These gases act like the glass windows in a car creating the “hot car
effect.”
Lecture-3
“Hot Car” Effect and Climate Change
Natural Enhanced
Lecture-3
Brief History of Climate Change Science
• 1827 Fourier hypothesizes greenhouse effect
• 1860 Tyndal identifies CO2 and water vapor as heat trapping gases
• 1896 Arrenhius calculates earth warming from gases and predicts
future warming from doubling and quadrupling CO2
• 1930 Calandar shows correlation of temperature and CO2
• 1958 Keeling begins direct measurement of CO2 in atmosphere
• 1980 to-date evidence accumulates and future projections made
Lecture-4
What is Climate Change?
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use .
UNFCCC, Article 1:
“climate change”: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.”
Lecture-4
What is Climate Variability?
Lecture-4
Past Climates
Paleoclimatology - the study of past climates.
• Past 100-200 years (weather observations; Direct
measurements)
• Must use indirect climate measures, proxies, to
examine further into the past. Some proxies:
- Tree rings (1,000+ years before present (BP))
- Trapped pollen (10,000+ years BP)
- Glacial ice cores (100,000+ years BP)
- Ocean sediment cores (1 Million+ years BP)
- Geology (1 Billion+ years BP)
Lecture-5
Evidence and measurement of climate changes
Direct measurements
• Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are
available beginning from the mid-late 19th century.
• Further observations are done by satellite and derived indirectly
from historical documents.
• Satellite cloud and precipitation data has been available since the
1970s
• Climate change in the recent past may be detected by changes in
settlement and agricultural patterns, archaeological evidence, oral
history and historical documents.
• Climate change effects have been linked to the rise and also the
collapse of various civilizations. Lecture-5
Evidence and measurement of climate changes
Proxy measurements
• Various archives of past climate are present in rocks, trees and fossils. From
these archive, indirect measures of climate, so-called proxies, can be derived.
• Stress, too little precipitation or unsuitable temperatures, can alter the
growth rate of trees, which allows scientists to infer climate trends by
analyzing the growth rate of tree rings. This branch of science studying this
called dendroclimatology.
• Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material—including
organic matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated—recording the
periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated.
Lecture-5
Evidence and measurement of climate changes
Proxy measurements
• The remnants of plants, and specifically pollen, are also used to study climatic
change. Plant distributions varies under different climate conditions. Different
groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and
since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they
resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment
indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a
changing climate.
• Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different
species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given
the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered
significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the
different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found,
Lecture-5
past climatic conditions may be inferred.
Evidence and measurement of climate changes
Proxy measurements
• Analysis of ice in a core drilled from an ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice
sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level
variations.
• The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the
atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental
influences.
• The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in
CO2 over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about
the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions.
• The 18O/16O ratio in calcite and ice core samples is used to deduce ocean
temperature in the distant past. Lecture-5
Ice core samples from Antarctica Correlation between
CO2 and temperature
Lecture-5
Post industrial Post industrial revolution
revolution CO2 levels temperature changes
(Mauna Loa climate research facility in Hawai, USA)
Lecture-5
What are the Primary Indicators of Climate Change?
Lecture-6
Historic Record of Global Climate
Lecture-6
Rising Global Sea Level
Lecture-6
Widespread Melting Snow and Ice
Lecture-6
Sea Ice Thickness (10-year average)
Lecture-6
Flora and fauna
Vegetation
• A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a
change in the climate. An increased precipitation and warmth, results in
improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2.
• A gradual increase in warmth in a region will lead to earlier flowering and
fruiting times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of dependent
organisms. Conversely, cold will cause plant bio-cycles to lag.
• Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may result in vegetation stress,
rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.
• Fauna
• Animals can deal with climatic change by migration to warmer or colder regions.
• Rapid or large climate change can cause mass extinctions when creatures are
stretched too far to be able to adapt. Lecture-6
Top: Arid ice age climate;
Middle: Atlantic Period, warm and wet;
Bottom: Potential vegetation in climate now if
not for human effects like agriculture.
Lecture-6
Past Climate Change – Six Historic Periods
• First, a major cooling trend occurred more than one billion years
ago with the beginning of photosynthetic organisms. The
atmosphere had a relatively high concentration of CO2, and
owing to the greenhouse effect, the Earth was correspondingly
warm. However, with the appearance of photosynthetic plants,
CO2 was removed from the atmosphere and stored as organic
carbon. This reduced the heat trapping capacity of the
atmosphere and led to a major cooling trend.
Lecture-6
Past Climate Change – Six Historic Periods
• Second, several hundred million years ago, the Earth experienced a
period of intense tectonic activity involving crustal movements,
continental drift, and volcanic eruptions. Massive outgassing of CO2
from the Earth’s crust led to an enhanced greenhouse effect with
temperatures on average 5◦C warmer than now. There was a general
rise in the diversity of life forms, but at least five periods of major
species extinctions have occurred since.
• Third, beginning about 100 million years ago, tectonic activity
subsided. Outgassing of CO2 decreased, lessening the greenhouse
effect of the atmosphere, and the climate cooled once more.
Lecture-6
Past Climate Change – Six Historic Periods
Lecture-6
Past Climate Change – Six Historic Periods
Lecture-6
Past Climate Change – Six Historic Periods
• Finally sixth, during just the last 150 years, the Earth’s global
average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ◦ C, and at higher
latitudes has increased by several degrees Celsius.
• Although small in magnitude, this is a very rapid rate of increase,
unprecedented in the Earth’s long history.
• Thus, the Earth has undergone periodic natural fluctuations in
climate of about ±1 to 6 ◦ C. We are currently in a warm
interglacial period and the Earth is about as warm as it has been
for 140,000 years.
Lecture-6
The climate is Always Changing, Always has Changed
1. The atmosphere envelops the earth and extends hundreds of kilometres from the surface.
2. The hydrosphere, including the oceans and all other reservoirs of water in liquid form, which
are the main source of moisture for precipitation and which exchange gases, such as CO2, and
particles, such as salt, with the atmosphere.
3. The geosphere, which affect the flow of atmosphere and oceans through their morphology
(i.e. topography, vegetation cover and roughness), the hydrological cycle (i.e. their ability to store
water) and their radiative properties as matter (solids, liquids, and gases) blown by the winds or
ejected from earth's interior in volcanic eruptions.
Climate system
4. The cryosphere, or the ice component of the climate system, whether on land or at the
ocean's surface, that plays a special role in the Earth radiation balance and in determining the
properties of the deep ocean.
5. The biosphere - all forms of life - that through respiration and other chemical interactions
affects the composition and physical properties air and water. The biosphere is that part of
Earth's atmosphere, land, oceans that supports any living plant, animal, or organism. It is the
place where plants and animals, including humans, live. Large quantities of carbon dioxide are
exchanged between the land-based biosphere and the atmosphere as plants take in carbon
dioxide and give off oxygen, and animals inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide.
Ice sheets can only grow when continents are at the poles.
Long-Term Climate Change
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Ant Ant Ahrens, Fig 13.6
180 M BP Today
250 million years ago, the world’s landmasses were joined
together and formed a super continent termed Pangea.
As today’s continents drifted apart, they moved into different
latitude bands.
This altered prevailing winds and ocean currents.
Causes of Climate Change: Variations in the Earth’s Position
relative to the Sun
• Eccentricity - Earth’s orbit around the Sun changing from a more circular route to more elliptical
one in a cycle from 90,000 to 100,000 years. When the orbit is more circular, the amount of
solar radiation the Earth receives during a year differs by only 6%. When the orbit is at its most
elliptical, solar radiation varies by between 20% and 30%. Such a large variation in solar
radiation profoundly affects global climate.
• Obliquity is the axial tilt of the Earth rotating around the Sun. This tilt changes the Earth’s
seasons throughout the year. It varies between 21.5 and 23.5 degree over a period of about
41,000 years. The Northern Hemisphere is tilted the most toward the Sun on summer solstice
(June 21 or 22), when the Sun’s rays reach the farthest north. The Northern Hemisphere is tilted
farthest away from the Sun on winter solstice (December 21 or 22). The smaller the planet’s tilt,
the less variation there is between summer and winter in the middle and high latitudes. When
winters are milder and summers are cooler in the high latitudes, glaciers are more likely to form.
• Precession – Like a rotating toy top, the direction of the rotation axis executes a slow precession
with a period of 26,000 years.
Causes of Climate Change: Variations in the
Earth’s Position relative to the Sun
• The elliptical path of the Earth around the Sun (eccentricity) brings it closer to or
farther from the Sun every 100,000 years (Figure 2.1a). Also, the Earth like a spinning
top wobbles as it rotates on its axis, exposing more or less of each hemisphere to the
direct rays of the Sun. It does this, in a process called precession, with a periodicity
of 20,000 years (Figure 2.1b). Finally, the tilt of the Earth’s axis with respect to the
Sun (obliquity) changes over a period of 40,000 years (Figure 2.1c).
• The summation of these three periodicities (Figure 2.2) determines the amount of
solar radiation reaching the Earth at a particular time. The resulting cold and warm
periods (Figure 2.3a) and glacial retreats and advances are known as Milankovich
Cycles after the Serbian mathematician who first proposed the relationship (Box
2.1). The most recent glaciation peaked about 18,000 years ago, and between then
and 6,000 years ago the Earth’s climate warmed by an average 5 ◦ C (Figure 2.3b).
Global Surface Temperature
The output of energy from the sun has been monitored
by satellites for thirty years and has not increased during
this period of rapid global warming.
• Atmospheric Circulation
• Ocean Circulation
• Land Surface Processes
• Vegetation
• Carbon Cycle
• Snow and Ice
Atmospheric Circulation
• The atmospheric convection cells play to convey heat from the warm
equatorial region to the cold polar regions.
• Warm air rises near the equatorial latitudes.
• When the rising warm air reaches the peak of the troposphere, it
moves toward the poles, and when the air cools, it flows and becomes
dense enough to sink at latitudes of about 30oN or 30oS.
• When this cold air reaches the Earth's surface, it is moved toward the
equator, and it then warms and rises.
General Atmospheric Circulation
• The amount of heat in the atmosphere varies from place
to place. This keeps it moving constantly (circulating).
• Most atmospheric circulation takes place in the
troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere closest to the
Earth. The troposphere extends to an altitude of 10-15
km and contains about 90% of the mass of the
atmosphere.
• Circulation happens because of convection, a form of
heat transfer in which a gas or fluid expands and rises as
it gets warmer.
• The Earth gets more of the Sun's heat at the Equator than
it does at the poles. So as the air at the Equator gets
warmer, it expands and rises. It continues to rise until it
gets to the top of the troposphere, where it spreads out
toward the poles and then comes back down to Earth
again.
• The oceans play a large part in determining the existing climate of the Earth.
• Ocean and atmosphere are close interactions and have a strong system.
• Oceans have high capacity to contain heat compared with the atmosphere
driving to gradually raise temperature in the oceans.
• Oceans redistribute heat throughout the climate system through their internal
circulation.
Ocean Circulation has A Large Effect on Weather and Climate
• What is El Niño?
• El Niño is the prolonged warming in the
Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature
compared with the average value. It is a
warming of at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) averaged
over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean.
• A pattern of ocean surface temperature in
the Pacific off the coast of South America,
which has a large influence on world
climate.
El Niño
SST °C SST °C
El Niño
La Niña