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Classical Theory of Probability-Problems and Solutions

1) There are two machines that produce items, machine 1 produces 30% of items and machine 2 produces 70% of items. 2) Machine 1 has a 5% defect rate and machine 2 has a 1% defect rate. 3) If a defective item is drawn randomly, the probability it came from machine 1 is 30% * 5% = 1.5% and from machine 2 is 70% * 1% = 0.7%. So the total probability a defective item came from either machine 1 or 2 is 1.5% + 0.7% = 2.2%.

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26 views15 pages

Classical Theory of Probability-Problems and Solutions

1) There are two machines that produce items, machine 1 produces 30% of items and machine 2 produces 70% of items. 2) Machine 1 has a 5% defect rate and machine 2 has a 1% defect rate. 3) If a defective item is drawn randomly, the probability it came from machine 1 is 30% * 5% = 1.5% and from machine 2 is 70% * 1% = 0.7%. So the total probability a defective item came from either machine 1 or 2 is 1.5% + 0.7% = 2.2%.

Uploaded by

TUSHAR JAIN
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability theory

Classical theory of probability-


problems and solutions
In a pack or deck of 52 playing cards,

• spades ♠ -13
• hearts ♥-13
• diamonds ♦-13
• clubs ♣-13
Black-26
Red-26
Face cards-12-King, Queen and Jack (or
Knaves) are face cards.
• King-4
• Queen-4
• Jack-4
• Ace-4
Q1. A card is drawn from a pack of cards,
• What is the probability that it is a red
card?
• What is the probability that it is a ace or
heart?
• What is the probability that it is a heart
or a spade?
• What is the probability that it is a king or
heart?
Q1. A card is drawn from a pack of cards,
• What is the probability that it is a red
card? 26/52
• What is the probability that it is a ace or
heart? (4/52+13/52-1/52)=4/13
• What is the probability that it is a heart
or a spade?(13/52+13/52)=1/2
• What is the probability that it is a king or
heart? 4/52+13/52-1/52=4/13
Q2. Two cards are drawn without
replacement from a pack of 52 cards.
What is the probability that :
• both are King
• both are hearts
• One is king and other is queen
Q2. Two cards are drawn without
replacement from a pack of 52 cards.
What is the probability that :
• both are King (4/52)*(3/51)=0.0045
• both are
hearts(13/52)*(12/51)=0.0588
• One is king and other is
queen(4/52*4/51)+(4/52*4/51)=0.12
Q3.A card is drawn from a pack of
cards, what is the probability that it is
neither a red card nor a king?
Q4. the probability that a girl student
gets a scholarship is 0.6 and a boy
student get it is 0.8. what is the
probability atleast one of them gets
the scholarship?
Ans3: p(red or king)=26/52+4/52-
2/52=7/13
Therefore p neither a red card nor king
is=1- p(red or king)= 1-7/13=6/13
ANS 4. p(G)=0.6
P(B)=0.8
P(B)*P(G´)+P(G)8P(B´)+P(B)*P(G)
(0.8*0.4)+(0.6*0.2)+(0.8*0.6)=0.92
Q5. A and B appears in an interview for two
vacancies, the probability of their selection
being 1/7 and 1/5 resp. Find the probability that:
• Both will be selected
• Only one will be selected
• None will be selected
• Atleast one will be selected.
Q5. P(A)=1/7 P(A’)=6/7
P(B)=1/5 P(B’)=4/5
• Both will be selected (1/7*1/5=1/35)
• Only one will be selected P(A)
P(A)*P(B’)+P(B)*P(A’)=2/7
• None will be selected
6/7*4/5=24/35
• Atleast one will be selected
1-(NONE IS SELLECTED)=1-24/35=11/35
BAYE’S THEOREM
PRIOR PROBABILITY

NEW INFORMATION

APPLICATION OF BAYES THEOREM

POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
A1 ,A2, A3,…An are n independent, exclusive
and collectively exhaustive events and p(A1)…
p(An) is known in advance and E is an error
event which is occurred and its probability of
occurrence is known p(E/A1), (E/A2)….p(E/An)
A defective idem is received and we want to
know whether it is occurred because of A1, A2…
An.
P(Ai/E)= P(Ai)*P(E/Ai)
P(Ai)*P(E/Ai)
• Assume that a factory has two machines. Past
records show that machine 1 produces 30
per cent of the items of output and machine 2
produces 70 per cent of the items. Further 5
per cent of the items produced by machine 1
were defective and only 1 per cent
produced by machine 2 were defective. If a
defective item is drawn at random, what is
the probability that the defective item was
produced by machine 1 or machine 2?

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