Unit 3- PROBABILITY

Probability is one of the important branches of Statistics that is

concerned with random phenomena.
Probability is a statistical method used to study of the chance of
occurrence and non occurrence of different phenomena. It is the
synonym of the words most likely, chance, likelihood, probably
etc. Hence, Probability defined as ‘uncertainty is numerically
expressed.
Definition:
Probability is a numerical measure (with a value lying between 0
and 1 i.e. 0 ≤ P ≤ 1 .) of the likelihood or chance that a
particular event will occur or not.
Formulae:
Note: When probability is not given directly, then it
can be categorised into two cases:
(i.e. In case of numbers, it can be categorised into
two cases) :
Case (i): When one item is selected at a time.
Case (ii): When more than one item is selected at a
time.
Examples related to
Case (i): When one item is selected at a time.
!
Probability of getting an event A = P(A) = "
Where
n = Total number of cases
m = Favourable number of cases
Example : A card is drawn at random from a well-
shuffled pack of 52 cards. What is the probability of
getting?
(a) a red card,
(b) a black king
Solution:
There are 52 cards in a pack.
Total number of cases (n) = 52
(a) P (a red card) =?
Since, there are 26 red cards.
Favourable number of cases (m) = 26
Required probability of getting a red card is
!
P (a red card) =
"
#$ &
= =
%# #
(b) P(a black king) =?
There are 2 black kings
Favourable number of cases (m) = 2
Required probability of getting a black king is
! # &
P (a black king) = = =
" %# #$
Example: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards at random what is
the probability that it is (i) Red, (ii) Spade, (iii) Face card, (iv) an ace, (v)
red king, (vi) Knave of heart, (vii) King or queen, (viii) Heart or club, (ix)
a red 2 or black 8 or a queen, (x) Spade or ace, (xi) Heart or face card,
(xii) Red or face card.
Solution:
Pack/deck (52)

Colour (2)

Black (26) Red (26)

ª Spade (13) § Club (13) © Heart (13) ¨ Diamond (13)

Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K

Knave Face cards/Picture cards

Since, there are 52 cards in a pack.
n = Total number of cases (or outcomes) = 52
Since, one card is drawn at random
(i) P (a red card) =?
Favourable number of case (m) = 26
! #$ &
∴ P (a red) = = =
" %# #
(ii)P (a spade) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = 13
! &' &
∴ P (a spade) = = =
" %# (
Similarly,
(iii)P (a face card) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = 12
(3 face cards in each suit)
! &# '
P (a face card) = = =
" %# &'
(iv) P (an ace) =?
Favourable number of outcomes (m) = 4
! ( &
P (an ace) = = =
" %# &'
(v)P (a red king) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of red kings = 2
! # &
P (a red king) = = =
" %# #$
(vi) P (a knave of heart) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of knave of heart = 1
! &
P (a knave of heart) = = =
" %#
(vii) P (a king or queen) =?
Favourable number of cases (m)= number of kings or queen=4+ 4 = 8
! ) #
P (king or queen) = = =
" %# &'
(viii)P (Heart or club) =?
m = number of heart or number of club cards= 13 + 13 = 26
! #$ &
P (Heart or club) = = =
" %# #
(ix)P (a red 2 or black 8 or a queen) =?
m = number of red 2 or black 8 or a queen
=2+2+4=8
! ) #
P (a red 2 or black 8 or a queen) = = =
" %# &'
(x) P (a spade or ace) =?
m = number of spade or ace
= 13 + 4 – 1 (∵ spade ace is common in both)
= 16
! &$ (
P (a spade or ace) = = =
" %# &'
(xi) P (a heart or face card) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of heart or face cards
= 13 + 12 – 3
= 22
(∵ 3 face cards of heart are common)
! ## &&
P (a heart or face card) = = =
" %# #$
(xii)P (a red or face card)
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of red or face cards
= 26 + 12 – 6
= 32
(∵ 6 red cards are common)
! '# )
P (a red or face card) = = =
" %# &'
Example
Twenty balls are numbered from 1 to 20. If one ball is drawn at
random, what is the probability that the ball drawn is multiple of 4 or
7?
Solution:
Total number of cases (n) = 20
Favourable number of cases (m) = The number of cases which are
multiple of 4 or 7
i.e. {4, 7, 8, 12, 14, 16, and 20}
i.e. m = 5+2 = 7
! *
Required probability that the ball drawn is multiple of 4 or 7 = =
" #+
Example
A bag contains 24 balls numbered from 1 to 24. One ball is drawn at
random. Find the probability that the ball drawn has a number which is
multiple of 3 or 4.
Solution:
Total number of cases (n) =24
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of cases of multiple of 3
or 4
=8+6−2
= 12
! &# &
∴ P 3 or 4 = = =
" #( #
Example
Two fair dice are thrown at random. What is the probability that the
face turn up show (i) a sum 7 (ii) a sum of 8 or 9 (iii) sum less than 5
(iv) number 6 in the first die (v) odd number in the second die (vi)
same faces (vii) different faces.
Solution:
Since, two dice are thrown
n = Total number of cases = 6 × 6 = 36
The sample spaces (total outcomes) are presented below:
Faces in second die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
(i) P (a sum 7) =?
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= number of cases of getting a sum 7 in both dice
i.e. (1, 6) (2, 5) (3, 4) (4, 3) (5, 2) (6, 1)
m=6
, $ &
P (a sum 7) = = =
- '$ $
(ii) P (a sum of 8 or 9) =?
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= number of cases getting a sum of 8 or 9
i.e. (2, 6) (3, 5) (4, 4) (5, 3) (6, 2) (3, 6) (4, 5) (5, 4) (6, 3)
m=9
. &
P (a sum is 8 or 9) = =
'$ (
(iii) P (sum less than 5) =?
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= number of cases getting a sum of less than 5
i.e. (1, 1) (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 3), (2, 2) (3, 1)
m=6
$ &
P (sum less than 5) = =
'$ $
(iv) P (number 6 in the first die ) = ?
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= number of cases getting a 6 in 1st die
i.e. (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)
m=6
$ &
∴ P (6 in first die) = =
'$ $
(v) P (odd number in the second die)
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= number of cases of odd number in the second die
i.e. (1, 1), (2, 1), (3, 1), (4, 1), (5, 1), (6, 1), (1, 3), (2, 3)
(3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3), (1, 5), (2, 5), (3, 5),
(4, 5) (5, 5), (6, 5)
m = 18
&) &
P (Odd number in the second die) = =
'$ #
(vi) P (same faces)
m = Favourable number of outcomes (cases)
= number of cases of getting same faces in both dice
i.e. (1, 1) (2, 2) (3, 3) (4, 4) (5, 5) (6, 6)
m=6
$ &
P (same faces in both dice) = =
'$ $
(vii) P (different faces) =?
m = Favourable number of outcomes
= Number of cases of different faces in both dice
i.e. (1, 1) (2, 1) (1, 3) (3, 1) .... . . . . . . . , (1, 6) (6, 1)
m = 30
, '+ %
P (different faces) = = =
- '$ $
Since, P (different faces) + P (same faces) = 1
∴ P (different faces) = 1 – P (same faces)
$ '+ %
=1– = =
'$ '$ $
Example
What is the chance that a leap year selected randomly consists of 53
Sundays?
Solution:
In a leap year, there are 366 days i.e. 52 complete weeks and 2 days
more. These 2 days may be either (i) Sunday and Monday or (ii)
Monday and Tuesday or (iii) Tuesday and Wednesday or (iv)
Wednesday and Thursday or (v) Thursday and Friday or (vi) Friday and
Saturday or (vii) Saturday and Sunday.
Total number of cases (n) = 7
P (53 Sundays) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of cases consisting Sunday
=2
∴ Required probability that a leap year selected randomly consists of
53 Sundays i.e.
! #
P (A) = =
" *
Example
What is the chance that a non-leap year selected randomly consists of
53 Sundays?
Solution:
In a non leap year, there are 365 days i.e. 52 complete weeks and 1 day
more. The 1 day may be either (i) Sunday or (ii) Monday or (iii) Tuesday
or (iv) Wednesday or (v) Thursday or (vi) Friday or (vii) Saturday.
Total number of cases (n) = 7
P (53 Sundays) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of cases consisting of Sunday
=1
∴ Required probability that a non-leap year selected randomly consists
of 53 Sundays i.e.
! &
P (A) = =
" *
Example
Annual sales commission from a survey of 300 media sales persons
were observed as follows:
Annual sales
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25above Total
commission ('000' Rs.)
No. of sales persons 15 25 35 125 70 30 300
What is the probability that a media sales person makes a commission
(a) between Rs. 5000 to 10,000 (b) less than Rs. 15,000? (c) more
than Rs. 7000 (d) less than Rs. 22000 (e ) between Rs.3000 and
Rs.18000
Solution: Since, total number of sales persons is 300
∴ Total number of cases (n) = 300
(a) P (a media sales person makes a commission between Rs. 5,000 to
10,000) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of media sales persons
make a commission between Rs. 5000 to 10,000
m = 25
p ( a media sales person makes a commission between Rs. 5,000 to
!
10,000)=
"
#%
=
'++
&
=
#
(b) P (a media sales person makes a commission less than Rs. 15000)
=?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of media sales persons
make a commission less than Rs. 15000
m = 35+25+15 = 75
P (a media sales person makes a commission less than Rs. 15000)
!
=
"
* &
= =
'++ (
(c) Favourable number of cases (m) = number of media sales persons
&+/*
make a commission more than Rs. 7000 = ×25 + 35 + 125 +
%
70 + 30 = 275
P (a media sales person makes a commission more than Rs. 7000) =
! #*%
= = 0.9166
" '++
(d) Favourable number of cases (m) = number of media sales persons
##/#+
make a commission less than Rs. 22000 = 15+25+35+125 + ×
%
70 = 228
P (a media sales person makes a commission less than Rs. 22000 ) =
! ##)
= = 0.76
" '++
(e) Favourable number of cases (m) = number of media sales persons
make a commission between Rs. 3000 to 18,000
%/' &)/&%
= ×15 + 25 + 35 + ×125 = 141
% %
P (a media sales person makes a commission between Rs. 3000 to
! &(&
18,000) = = = 0.47
" '++
Example
In a group of equal number of men and women, 20% of men and 30%
of women are unemployed. If a person selected at random, what is the
probability the selected person is an employed?
Solution:
Since, the number of men and women are equal and their
unemployment percentages are given. Let the population of men and
women each be 100 Therefore, the given information can be
presented in the following tabular form:

Nature Unemployed Employed Total

Sex
Men 20 80 100
Women 30 70 100
Total 50 150 200
Let A be the event of selecting employed person.
Total number of cases (n) = total number of persons = 200
P (person is an employed) = P (A) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = number of employed persons = 150
Then,
! &%+ '
P A = = = = 0.75
" #++ (
Examples related to
Case (ii): When more than one item is selected at a time.
𝒎
Probability of getting the event, P(A) =
𝒏
Where, n = Total number of cases
= 𝒏𝟏𝑪𝒓
m = Favourable number of cases
= 𝒎𝟏𝑪𝒓
Example
A bag contains 8 red, 4 white and 5 black coloured balls. Three balls are drawn
randomly from a bag. Find the probability that (i) all are red (ii) 2 is red and 1 white
(iii) 2 are red and 1 other (iv) all colour balls.
Solution:
Since, 3 balls are drawn at drawn
Exhaustive (total) number of cases (n) = number of cases of selection of 3 balls out of
17 balls
!"! !"×!'×!(×!)!
= 17C3 = = = 680.
!"$% !%! !)!×!×*×%
( i) m = Favourable number of cases of drawing all 3 are red balls
= 8C3
+! +×"×'×(!
= = = 56
+$% !%! (! ×!×*×%
, ('
P (all are red) = = = 0.082
- '+.
(ii) Favourable cases for 2 red and 1 white (m) = 8C2 × 4C1
)! (!
= ×
)/# ! ×#! (/& !&!
)×*×$! (×'!
= ×
$! ×#×& '!&
= 28×4 = 112
! &&#
∴P (2 is red and 1 white) = = = 0.1647
" $)+
(iii) Favourable cases for 2 are red out of three drawn balls i.e. 2 are
red and 1 other (m) = 8C2 × 9C1 = 28 ×9 = 252
! #%#
P (2 are red and 1 other) = = = 0.37058
" $)+
(iv) Favourable number of cases for all coloured balls
(m) = 8C1 × 4C1 × 5C1
= 8 × 4 × 5 = 160
! &$+ (
P (all colour balls) = = = = 0.235
" $)+ &*
T.U.2018 (March –April)
A bag contains 3 red , 2black and 5 white balls . If two balls are drawn
at random, What is the probability of getting (i) both red balls (ii) both
white balls?
Solution:
Total number of balls = 3 + 2+5 =10
Since, 2 balls are drawn at drawn
total number of cases (n) = number of cases of selection of 2 balls
out of 10 balls
&+! &+×.×)!
= 10C2 = = =45.
&+/# !#! )!×#×&
(i) P( both red balls )= ?
m = Favourable number of cases of drawing both are red balls
= 3C2
'! '×#!
= = =3
'/# !#! &! ×#!
! '
∴P (both are red balls) = = = 0.066
" (%
(ii) P(both white balls)= ?
m = Favourable number of cases of drawing both are white
balls
= 5 C2
= 10
! #$
∴P (both are white balls) = "
= %&
= 0.222
2020 (Make up Exam)
A consignment of 20 bulbs contains 5 defective bulbs . Two bulbs are
taken at random from the consignment. What is the probability that
(a) both are defective (b) both are non defective?
Solution:
Total number of balls = 20
No. of defective bulbs = 5
No. of non defective bulbs = 20-5= 15
Since, 2 balls are drawn at drawn
Total number of cases (n) = number of cases of selection of 2 balls out
of 20 balls
= 20C2 = 190
(a) P( both are defective )= ?
m = Favourable number of cases of drawing both are defective bulbs
= 5C2
= 10
! &+
∴P (both are defective bulbs) = = = 0.052
" &.+
(b) P(both are non defective bulbs)= ?
m = Favourable number of cases of drawing both are non defective
bulbs
= 15C2
= 105
! &+%
∴P (both are non defective bulbs) = = = 0.552
" &.+
Example
Five men in a group of 20 are graduates. If 3 are chosen out of 20 at
random, what is the probability that
(a)all are graduates (b) none of them is graduate
(c)al least one of them being graduate
Solution: Here,
Total number of men = 20
Number of graduates = 5
Number of non-graduates = 20 – 5 = 15
If three are chosen at random
Total number of possible outcomes (n) = 20C3
#+!
=
#+/' !'!
#+!
=
&*!'!
#+×&.×&)×&*!
=
&*!×'×#×&
= 1140
(a) P (all are graduates) =?
Favourable number of cases (m) = 5C3
%!
=
%/' !'!
%×(×'×#!
=
#!×'×#×&
= 10
! &+ &
∴ P (all are graduate) = = =
" &&(+ &&(
(b) P (none of them are graduate) =?
Favourable number of cases for none of them are graduate
(m) = 15C3
&%!
=
&%/' !'!
= 455
! ((% .&
∴ P (none of them are graduate) = = =
" &&(+ ##)

(ii) P (at least one of them being graduate)

= 1 – P (none them are graduate)
.&
=1–
##)
##)/.&
=
##)
&'*
=
##)
Example
A class consists of 40 boys and 60 girls. If two students are chosen at
random, what will be the probability that
(a) both are boys (b) both are girls
(c) one boy and one girl
Solution:
Number of boys in a class = 40
Number of girls in a class = 60
Total number of student = 40 + 60 = 100
If two students are chosen at random, then total number of possible
outcomes (n) = 100C2
= 4950
(i) P (both are boys) =?
Favourable case for both are boys (m) = 40C2 = 780
! *)+ *)
∴ P (both are boys) = = =
" (.%+ (.%
(ii) P (both are girls) =?
Favourable case for both are girls (m) = 60C2 = 1770
! &**+ &** %.
∴ P (both are girls) = = = =
" (.%+ (.% &$%
(iii) P (one boy and one girl) =?
Favourable number of cases for one boy and one girl
(m) =40C1 × 60C1
= 40 × 60 = 2400
! #(++ () &$
∴ P (one boy and one girl) = = = =
" (.%+ .. ''
 2016 (Make up Exam)
There are 3 economists, 4 engineers, 2 statisticians and 1 doctor. A
committee of 4 from among them is to be formed. Find the probability
that the committee
a. consists of one of each kind
b. has at least one economist
c. has a doctor as a member and three others.
Solution:
Total no. of persons = 3 economists+4 engineers +2 statisticians + 1 doctor
=10
a. P(consists of one of each kind)= ?
Total number of possible cases (n) = 10C4 = 210
Favourable no. of cases (m) = no. of cases consists of one of each kind
= 3C1 × 4C1 × 2C1 × 1C1
= 3×4×2×1
= 24
! '%
P(consists of one of each kind)= = =0.114
" '#$
b. P(has at least one economist ) = ?
No. of non economist = 10-3 =7
Favourable no. of cases (m) = no. of cases non economist
= 7C4
= 35
! '%
P(non economist)= = =0.166
" #&+
P(has at least one economist ) = 1- P(non economist)
= 1-0.166
= 0.834
c. P(has a doctor as a member and three others)= ?
m = favourable no. of cases
= no. of cases has a doctor as a member and three others.
= 1C1 × 9C3
= 84
! )(
∴ P(has a doctor as a member and three others) = = = 0.4
" #&+
Laws (or rules) of Probability)
Following are the laws of probability:
1. Additive law of probability
2. Multiplicative law of probability

Additive Law of Probability (Addtion Theorem of Probability)

(At least one, one of them, or) “Union ∪”
Case I: when events are not mutually exclusive
If A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then the probability of
occurrence of at least one of them is given by
P (A or B) = P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) B
A

P(A) P(B)
The probability of occurrence of at least one of them can also be
written as
P (A∪B) = 1 – P A ∪ B
=1–P A 9∩B 9 ∵P A∪B +P A∪B =1
Demorgan’s law
P A∪B =P A 9∩B 9 & P A∩B =P A 9∪B 9
If A, B and C are three not mutually exclusive events then the
probability of occurrence of at least any one of them is given by
P (A or B or C) = P (A∪B∪C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A∩B) – P (B∩C) –
P (C∩A) + P (A∩B∩C)

A B

C
(A ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
The probability of occurrence of at least one of them can also be
written as
P (A∪B∪C) = 1 − P A ∪ B ∪ C ∵ P A∪B∪C +
P A∪B∪C =1
∴P A∪B∪C =1−P A 9∩B 9 ∩ C;
Demorgan’s law
P A∪B∪C =P A 9∩B 9 ∩ C; & P A ∩ B ∩ C = P A 9∪B 9 ∪ C;
Example
The probability that a new airport will get an award for its design is
0.16, the probability that it will get an award for the efficient use of
materials is 0.24, and the probability that it will get both awards is
0.11.
a. What is the probability that it will get at least one of the two
awards?
b. What is the probability that it will get only one of two awards?
Solution:
Probability that a new airport will get award for its design, P (A) = 0.16
Probability that a new airport will get award for efficient, P (B) = 0.24
Probability that a new airport will get award for both, P (A∩B) = 0.11
a. Probability that it will get at least one of the two awards,
P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B) – P(A∩B)
= 0.16 + 0.24 – 0.11 = 0.29
b. Probability that it will get only one of two awards.
= [P (A) – P (A∩B)] or [P (B) – P (A∩B)]
= [P (A) – P (A∩B)] + [P (B) – P (A∩B)]
= (0.16 – 0.11) + (0.24 – 0.11)
= 0.05 + 0.13 = 0.18
Example
A construction company is bidding for two contracts A and B. The
'
probability that the company will get contract A is , the probability
%
&
that the company will get contract B is and the probability that the
'
&
company will get both the contracts is . What is the probability that
)
the company will get contract A or B?
Solution:
' & &
We have, P A = , P B = , P A ∩ B = , P A or B =?
% ' )
The probability that the company will get contract A or B is given by
P A or B = P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B)
' & & .*
= + − =
% ' ) &#+
Example
The probability that a boy will get a scholarship is 0.9 and that a girl
will get is 0.8. What is the probability that at least one of them will get
the scholarship?
Solution:
Let B = event of a boy getting scholarship
G = event of a girl getting scholarship
Then,
9) = 1 − P B = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1
P (B) = 0.9, P(B
9) = 1 − P G = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2
P (G) = 0.8, P(G
The probability that at least one of them will get scholarship is given by
P (BÈG) =1 − P B ∪ G
=1−P B 9∩G 9 (Using De-Morgan's law)
=1 – P B9 P G9
= 1 – 0.1 × 0.2 = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98 (Since, a boy and a
girl getting scholarship are independent)
Alternative method
The probability that at least one of them will get scholarship is given by
P (BÈG) = P (B) + P (G) – P (BÇG)
= P (B) + P (G) – P (B) × P (G)
= 0.9 + 0.8 – 0.9 × 0.8
= 1.7 – 0.72
= 0.98
Example
A product is made up of three components C& , C# and C' . The
probability that these components are defective are in the ratio 1:2:3.
Find the probability that one product selected at random is non
defective.
Solution
Since, the probability that these components C& , C# and C' are
defective are in the ratio 1:2:3.
Total ratio = 1+2+3 = 6
& & %
Then, P C& = , P C; & = 1 − =
$ $ $
# # (
P C# = , P C; # = 1 − =
$ $ $
' ' '
P C' = , P C; ' = 1 − =
$ $ $
Hence, the probability that one product selected at random is non
defective is given by
P C; & , C; # and C; ' =P C; & ∩ C; # ∩ C; '
= P C; & × P C; # × P C; '
% ( '
= × × ∵ the events C; & , C; # and C; ' are independent
$ $ $
%
=
&)
= 0.277
Example
If the probability of machines M& , M# and M' working without failure
are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively. Find the probability that
(i) at least one machine will work without failure.
(ii) at least two machine will work without failure.
(iii) all machines will work without failure.
Solution:
Let A, B and C denote the events that machines M& , M# and M'
working without failure respectively. Then
P A = 0.2, P A 9 = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
P B = 0.3, P B 9 = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
P C = 0.5 , P C; = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5
(i)P ( at least one machine will work without failure )
=P A∪B∪C
=1– P none of them will work
= 1- P(AUBUC)
= 1 – P (A9) P (B
9) P (C; )
= 1 – 0.8×0.7×0.5 = 1– 0.28 = 0.72
(ii)P(at least two machine will work without failure)
= P A ∩ B ∩ C or A ∩ B ∩ C; or A ∩ B 9 ∩ C or A9 ∩ B ∩ C
= P A P B P C + P A P B P C; + P A P B 9 P C +
P A 9 P B P C
= 0.2×0.3×0.5 + 0.2×0.3×0.5 + 0.2×0.7×0.5 + 0.8×0.3×0.5 =
0.25
( ∵ Events are mutually exclusive and independent)
(iii) p (all machines will work without failure) = P A ∩ B ∩ C
=P A P B P C
= 0.2×0.3×0.5 = 0.03
Example
A, B and C will pass a certain examination in the proportion 2:4:6.
What is the probability that
(i) at least two of them will pass the examination?
(ii) at least one of the them will pass the examination?
(iii) all will pass the examination?
(iv) none will pass the examination?
(v) B will pass but not A and C?
Solution:
Since, the pass proportion of A, B and C in a certain examination are in
the rato 2:4:6.
Total ratio = 2 + 4 + 6 = 12. Then
# &
P A = = , P A 9 =1− &=%
&# $ $ $
( & & #
P B = 9 =1−
= , P B =
&# ' ' '
$ & & &
P C = = , P C; = 1 − =
&# # # #
(iv) P (at least two of them will pass the examination) = P (A ∩ B ∩
C or A ∩ B ∩ C; or A ∩ B9 ∩ C or A9 ∩ B ∩ C)
=P A P B P C + P A P B P C; + P A P B 9 P C +
P A 9 P B P C
& & & & & & & # & % & & .
= × × + × × + × × + × × = = 0.25
$ ' # $ ' # $ ' # $ ' # '$
( ∵ Events are mutually exclusive and independent)
(v)P(at least one of the them will pass the examination )
=P A∪B∪C
=1– P none of them will pass the exam
9) P (B
= 1 – P (A 9) P (C; )
% # &
= 1 – × × = 1– 0.2777 = 0.7222
$ ' #
(vi) P all will pass the examination = P A ∩ B ∩ C
=P A P B P C
& & &
= × × = 0.02777
$ ' #
(vii) P none will pass the examination = P 9∩B
A 9 ∩ C;
=P 9 P B
A 9 P (C; )
% # &
= × × = 0.2777
$ ' #
(viii) P B will pass but not A and C = P (A9 ∩ B ∩ C; )
9) P B P (C; )
= P (A
% & &
= × × = 0.1388
$ ' #
Additive Law of Probability (Addition Theorem of Probability)
Case II: when events are mutually exclusive
Let A and B be two mutually exclusive events. Then the probability of
the occurrence of either event A or event B is the sum of their
individual probabilities. Hence, the probability of occurrence of either
event A or event B is given by
P (A or B) = P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B)
A B

P(A) P(B)

Similarly, If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive events, then the

probability of occurrence of either events A or B or C is given by
P (A or B or C) = P (A∪B∪C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C)
Example
#
The probability that a company execute will travel by plane is and
'
&
that he will travel by train is . Find the probability of his travelling by
%
plane or train.
Solution: Let A and B be the events that a company execute will travel
by plane and train respectively.
# &
P A = , P B = , P plne or train = P A or B = ?
' %
P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B)
# &
= +
' %
&+2'
=
&%
&'
=
&%
Example
If an experiment has the three possible and mutually exclusive
outcomes A, B and C, check in each case whether the assignment of
probabilities is permissible.
(a) P (A) = 1/3, P (B) = 1/3, P(C) = 1/3
(b) P (A) = 0.35, P (B) = 0.52, P(C) = 0.26
Solution:
& & &
(a) P (A) + P (B) + P(C) = + + = 1
' ' '
Hence, this probability is permissible since total probability = 1.
(b) P (A) + P (B) + P(C) = 0.35 + 0.52 + 0.26 = 1.13 > 1
Which is impossible. Hence, this probability is not permissible.
Example
Three events A, B and C are mutually exclusive events and their
respective probabilities are as follows.
P (A) = 2/3; P (B) = 1/4; P(C) = 1/6.
Comment on the result.
Solution:
If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events then
P (A or B or C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C)
# & & )2'2# &'
= + + = = .
' ( $ &# &#
&'
P (A or B or C) = = 1.08 > 1, which is not possible. Hence, the given
&#
information is not correct.
Multiplicative Law of Probability (or Multiplication
Theorem of Probability)
(And, both, as well as, all, three, two) “Intersection , ∩”
Case (i): When events are independent
Let A and B are two independent events, then the probability of
occurrence of both the events is the product of their individual
probabilities. Symbolically,
P (A and B) = P (A∩B) = P (A) P (B)
If A, B and C are three independent events, then
P (A∩B∩C) = P (A) .P (B). P(C)
TU2019 (April)
The probability of passing a boy in an examination is 0.5 and probability of
passing a girl is 0.4. What is the probability of (i) both of them pass the
examination and (ii) only one of them will pass the examination.
Solution: Let A and B be the events that a boy and a girl passing the
examination respectively.
# = 1 − P A = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5
P(A) = 0.5 , P(A)
P(B) = 0.4 , P(B #) = 1 − P B = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6
(i) P(both of them pass the examination) = P A ∩ B
=P A P B
= 0.5 ×0.4
= 0.20
(ii)P(only one of them will pass the examination)
# or A
= P(A ∩ B # ∩ ∩B)
# )P(B)
# ) + P(A
= P(A)P(B
= 0.5 ×0.6+ 0.5 ×0.4
= 0.30 +0.20
= 0.50
Example
Two brothers: Mr. X and Mr. Y appear in an interview for getting the
scholarship. The scholarship can be provided for two persons. The
& &
probability of getting scholarship by Mr. X is and getting by Mr. Y is .
* %
What is the probability that,
(a) both of them will get scholarship.
(b) Only one of them will get scholarship.
(c) None of them will get scholarship.
Solution:
Let P (A) = Probability that Mr. X will get scholarship
P A9 = Probability that Mr. X will not get scholarship
P (B) = Probability that Mr. Y will get scholarship
P B9 = Probability that Mr. X will not get scholarship
Given that,
& & $
P (A) = and 𝑃 𝐴̅ = 1 – =
* * *
& & (
P (B) = and 𝑃 𝐵; = 1 – =
% % %
(a) Probability that both of them will get scholarship,
P (A∩B) = P (A) P (B) ∵ 𝐴 & 𝐵 Events 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent
& & &
= × =
* % '%
(b) Probability that only one of them will get scholarship
= P (A ∩ 𝐵; 𝑜𝑟 𝐴̅ ∩B)
= P (A∩ 𝐵); + P (𝐴̅ ∩B)
; + P (𝐴).
= P (A). P (𝐵) ̅ P (B)
& ( $ & ( $ &+
= × + × = + =
* % * % '% '% '%
(c) Probability that non of them will get scholarship
P (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)
; = P (𝐴)̅ P (𝐵)
;
$ ( #(
= × =
* % '%
Example
Probability that a man will be alive 25 years hence is 0.3 and the
probability that his wife will be alive 25 years hence is 0.4. Find the
probability that 25 years hence (i) both will be alive (ii) only the man
will be alive (iii) only the woman will be alive (iv) none will be alive (v)
at least one of them will be alive. (vi) only one of them will be alive.
Solution:
Let A and B be the events that a man and a woman will be alive 25
years hence respectively. Then,
Probability that a man will be alive 25 years, hence i.e.
P (A) = 0.3 and then P (𝐴)̅ = 1− 0.3 = 0.7
Similarly, probability that his wife will be alive 25 years, hence i.e.
; =1−0.4 = 0.6
P (B) = 0.4, P (𝐵)
(i) Required probability that both will be alive 25 years
P (A∩B) = P (A) × P (B) = 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.12
(ii) Probability that only the man will be alive
; = P (A) × P (𝐵)
= P (A∩ 𝐵) ; = 0.3 × 0.6 = 0.18.
(iii) Probability that the only woman will be alive
= P (B∩ A9) = P (B) × P (A
9) = 0.4 × 0.7 = 0.28
(iv) Probability that none will be alive
P(A 9∩B 9) ×P (B
9) = P (A 9) = 0.7×0.6 = 0.42

(v) Required probability that at least one of them will be alive

P(AUB ) = 1- P(AUB)
9∩B
= 1- P ( A 9)
= 1- 0.42
= 0.58
OR
Alternatively
P (A∪B) = 1 – P (𝐴)̅ P (𝐵)
;
= 1 – 0.7 × 0.6
= 1 – 0.42
= 0.58
(vi) Probability that only one of them will be alive
= P (A∩ 𝐵; or 𝐴̅ ∩B) = P (A∩ 𝐵); + 𝑃 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵
; + P (𝐴)̅ × P (B)
= P (A) × P (𝐵)
= 0.3 × 0.6 + 0.7 × 0.4
= 0.46
Example
A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, and C whose
& & &
chances of solving it are , and respectively. Find the probability
' ( %
that
(a) the problem will be solved (or at least one of them will solve the
problem )
(b) only one of them can solve the problem.
(c) none of them will solve the problem
(d) A solves it but B and C cannot.
(e) all three students A, B and C can solve the problem.
Solution:
Given,
& & #
9
Probability that A solves a problem i.e. P (A) = and P (A) =1− =
' ' '
& & '
Probability that B solves a problem i.e. P (B) = 9) = 1− =
and P (B
( ( (
&
; =1− & = (
Probability that C solves a problem i.e. P(C) = and P (C)
% % %
Required probability that the problem will be solved is given by
P A ∪ B ∪ C = P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A∩B) – P (B∩C) – P (C∩A) + P (A∩B∩C)
= P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A) P (B) – P (B) P(C) – P(C) P (A)+ P (A) P (B) P(C)
& & & & & & & & & & & & '
= ' + ( + ) – ' × ( – ( × ) – ) × ' + ' × ( × ) = ) ∵ A, B & C Events A & B are
independent
Alternatively,
Required probability that the problem will be solved is given by
P A ∪ B ∪ C = 1 – P(AUBUC)
# P (B
= 1 - P (A) 9
#) P (C)
* ' (
=1– × ×
' ( )
* '
=1– =
) )
(b) Probability that only one of them can solve the problem.
= P (A∩ B 9 + P (A
# ∩ C) # ∩B∩ C)
9 + P(A#∩B # ∩C)
9 + P (A)
#) P (C)
= P (A) P (B # P (B) P (C)
9 + P (A)
# P (B
#) P(C)
& ' ( * & ( * ' & &* - + *+
= × × + × × + × × = + + = = 0.433
' ( ) ' ( ) ' ( ) +, +, +, +,
(c)Probability that non of them will solve the problem,
P (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵; ∩ 𝐶)̅ = P (𝐴)̅ P (𝐵)
; P (𝐶)̅
# ' ( #
= × × = = 0.4
' ( % %
(d) Probability that A solve it but B and C cannot,
P (A∩ 𝐵; ∩ 𝐶)̅
; × P (𝐶̅ )
= P (A) × P (𝐵)
& ' ( &
= × × = = 0.2
' ( % %
(e) Probability that all three students can solve the problem,
P (A∩B∩C) = P (A) × P (B) × P(C)
& & & &
= × × =
' ( % $+
= 0.017
Example
A salesperson has 65 percent chance of making a sale to a customer.
The behaviour of each successive customer is independent. If three
customers A, B and C entre together, (i) what is the probability that the
salesperson will make a sale to at least one of the customers? (ii) What
is the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to all three
customers?
Solution:
The probabilities that a salesperson making a sale to customers A, B
and C are
P (A) = 0.65, 9) = 1- P (A) = 0.35
P (A
P (B) = 0.65, P (B9) = 1- P (B) = 0.35
; = 1- P (C) = 0.35
P (C) = 0.65, P (C)
(i) Probability that the salesperson will make a sale to at least one of
the customers is given by
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 = P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A∩B) – P (B∩C) – P (C∩A) + P
(A∩B∩C)
= P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A) P (B) – P (B) P(C) – P(C) P (A)+ P (A) P (B)
P(C)
= 0.65+ 0.65 + 0.65 –0.65 × 0.65 –0.65 × 0.65 –0.65 ×0.65 +
0.65×0.65×0.65 = 0.957
∵ The behaviour of each successive customer is independent i.e.
Events 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent
Alternatively,
The required Probability that the salesperson will make a sale to at
least one of the customers is given by
P A ∪ B ∪ C = 1 –P(AUBUC)
9) P (B
= P (A 9) P (C; )
= 1 –0.35× 0.35 × 0.35
= 0.957
(ii) Probability that the salesperson will make a sale to all three
customers given by
P (A∩B∩C) = P (A) × P (B) × P(C)
= 0.65 × 0. 65× 0.65
= 0.274
Example
The odds in favour that A speaks the truth are 3: 2 and the odds in
favour that B speaks the truth are 5:3. In what percentage of cases are
they likely to contradict and do not contradict each other on an
identical point?
Solution: Given,
' '
Probability that A speaks the truth = P (A) = =
'2# %
# #
9) =
Probability that A does not speak truth = P (A =
'2# %
% %
Probability that B speaks the truth = P (B) = =
%2' )
' '
Probability that B does not speak truth = P (B9) = =
%2' )
Required probability that they are likely to contradict each other on an
identical point
= P (A∩ B 9 ∩B)
9 or A
9) × P (B)
9) + P (A
= P (A) × P (B
' ' # % &.
= × + × =
% ) % ) (+
 &.
∴ Required percentage of contradiction = × 100 = 47.5%
(+
Required probability that they do not contradict each other on an
identical point
= P (A∩ 𝐵 or 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)
;
= P (A) P (B) + P (𝐴)̅ P (𝐵)
; ∵ A and B are
independent.
' % # ' #&
= × + × = P (A∩ 𝐵) =P (A) P (B)
% ) % ) (+
#&
= ×100 = 52.5%
(+
OR
Alternatively,
Required probability that they do not contradict each other on an
&. #&
identical point = 1− =
(+ (+
#&
= ×100 = 52.5%
(+
Example
A product is made up of three components C& , C# and C' . The
probability that these components are defective are in the ratio 1:2:3.
Find the probability that one product selected at random is non
defective.
Solution
Since, the probability that these components C& , C# and C' are
defective are in the ratio 1:2:3.
Total ratio = 1+2+3 = 6
& & %
Then, P C& = , P C; & = 1 − =
$ $ $
# # (
P C# = , P C; # = 1 − =
$ $ $
& ' '
P C& = , P C; ' = 1 − =
$ $ $
Hence, the probability that one product selected at random is non
defective is given by
P C; & , C; # and C; ' =P C; & ∩ C; # ∩ C; '
= P C; & ×P C; # × P C; '
% ( ' %
= × × = = 0.277
$ $ $ &)

∵ the events C; & , C; # and C; ' are independent

Example
If the probability of machines M& , M# and M' working without failure
are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively. Find the probability that
at least one machine will work without failure.
at least two machine will work without failure.
all machines will work without failure.
Solution:
Let A, B and C denote the events that machines M& , M# and M'
working without failure respectively. Then
P A = 0.2, P A 9 = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
P B = 0.3, P B 9 = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
P C = 0.5 , P C; = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5
(i) P ( at least one machine will work without failure ) = P A ∪ B ∪ C
=1– P none of them will work
9) P (B
= 1 – P (A 9) P (C; )
= 1 – 0.8×0.7×0.5 = 1– 0.28 = 0.72
(ii) P (at least two machine will work without failure) = P (A ∩ B ∩
C or A ∩ B ∩ C; or A ∩ B 9 ∩ C or A9 ∩ B ∩ C)
= P A P B P C + P A P B P C; + P A P B 9 P C +
P A 9 P B P C
= 0.2×0.3×0.5 + 0.2×0.3×0.5 + 0.2×0.7×0.5 + 0.8×0.3×0.5 =
0.25
( ∵ Events are mutually exclusive and independent)
(iii) p (all machines will work without failure) = P A ∩ B ∩ C
=P A P B P C
= 0.2×0.3×0.5 = 0.03
Example
A, B and C will pass a certain examination in the proportion 2:4:6.
What is the probability that
(i) at least two of them will pass the examination?
(ii) at least one of the them will pass the examination?
(iii) all will pass the examination?
(iv) none will pass the examination?
(v) B will pass but not A and C?
Solution:
Since, the pass proportion of A, B and C in a certain examination are in
the rato 2:4:6.
Total ratio = 2 + 4 + 6 = 12. Then
# & & %
P A = = , 9 =1−
P A =
&# $ $ $
( & & #
P B = 9 =1−
= , P B =
&# ' ' '
$ & & &
P C = = , P C; = 1 − =
&# # # #
P (at least two of them will pass the examination) = P (A ∩ B ∩
C or A ∩ B ∩ C; or A ∩ B
9 ∩ C or A9 ∩ B ∩ C)
= P A P B P C + P A P B P C; + P A P B 9 P C +
P 9 P B P C
A
& & & & & & & # & % & & .
= × × + × × + × × + × × = = 0.25
$ ' # $ ' # $ ' # $ ' # '$
( ∵ Events are mutually exclusive and independent)
P (at least one of the them will pass the examination ) = P A ∪ B ∪ C
=1– P none of them will pass the exam
9) P (B
= 1 – P (A 9) P (C; )
% # &
= 1 – × × = 1– 0.2777 = 0.7222
$ ' #
P all will pass the examination = P A ∩ B ∩ C
=P A P B P C
& & &
= × × = 0.02777
$ ' #
 9∩B
P none will pass the examination = P A 9 ∩ C;
=P A9 P B
9 P (C; )
% # &
= × × = 0.2777
$ ' #
9 ∩ B ∩ C; )
P B will pass but not A and C = P (A
9 P B P (C)
= P (A) ;
% & &
= × × = 0.1388
$ ' #
Multiplication Theorem of Probability
(And, both, as well, two, three, all, ∩ )
Case (ii): When the events are dependent:
Note: (a) In case of numbers if there is change in total numbers i.e.
without replacement, transferred, added )
(b) If dependent condition is stated i.e. conditional case is given)
If A and B are two dependent events, then the probability of
simultaneous happening of two events A and B is given by
P A ∩ B = P A P B/A
Similarly,
P A ∩ B = P B P A/B
Where, P B/A is the conditional Probability of the occurrence
(happening) of event B given that (if) event A has already occurred
(happened).
& P A/B is the conditional Probability of occurrence (happening) of
event A given that event B has already occurred (happened).
 If A, B and C are three dependent events, then
P A ∩ B ∩ C = P A P B/A P C/A ∩ B
Where,P C/A ∩ B is the conditional probability of occurrence
(happening) of event C given that (if) both events A and B have
already occurred (happened).

Note(i) If events A and B are independent, then P (A/B) = P (A) and

P (B/ A) = P (B)
(ii) P (A∩B) can also be denoted by P (AB)
Conditional Probability
Definition: Conditional probability is the probability that an event will
occur given that another event has already occurred. If A and B are
two dependent events, then the conditional probability of event A
given that (if) event B has already occurred is given by,
3 (5∩7)
P (A/B) = , provided P (B) ≠ 0
3 7
!"."$ $%&"'(%)*+ ,%-+- ." /∩1
2".%* 3'4)+( "$ +56%'-.7&+ ,%-+-
⇒ P (A/B) = !"."$ $%&"'(%)*+ ,%-+- ." 1
2".%* 3'4)+( "$ +56%'-.7&+ ,%-+-
Similarly, the conditional probability of event B given that (if) event A
3 5∩7
has already occurred is given by P (B/A) = , provided P (A) ≠ 0
3 5
!"."$ $%&"'(%)*+ ,%-+- ." /∩1
2".%* 3'4)+( "$ +56%'-.7&+ ,%-+-
⇒ P (B/A) = !"."$ $%&"'(%)*+ ,%-+- ." /
2".%* 3'4)+( "$ +56%'-.7&+ ,%-+-
Where, P A = Marginal (or simple) probability of an event A
& P A ∩ B = Joint probability of events A and B.
TU2017(April-May)
In an examination 62% of the students have passed in Sociology, 35% of
the students have passed in Basic Mathematics and 24% have passed in
both Sociology and Basic Mathematics. A student is selected at random.
What is the probability that the student has passed in Sociology given
that he has passed in Basic Mathematics.
Solution: Let S and M be the events that denote the students have passed
in Sociology and Basic Mathematics respectively. Then
P (S) = 62% = 0.62
P (M) = 35% = 0.35
P (S∩M) = 24% = 0.24
If one student is selected at random, the Probability that the student has
passed in Sociology given that he has passed in Basic Mathematics is given
by
. /∩1 ,.*(
P (S/M) = = = 0.68
. 1 ,.')
T U 2015
Consignments of 50 calculators contain 8 defective calculators.
Two calculators are taken at random from the consignment without
replacement. What is the probability that
a. Both are defective
b. Both are non defective.
Solution:
Total number of calculators = 50
No. of defective calculator = 8
No. of non-defective calculators =50-8 =42
Since, two calculators are taken at random from the consignment
without replacement.
3
a . Prob. of defective calculator in first draw ,P(A) = 4
)
=
%+
Since, two calculators are taken at random from the consignment
without replacement.
Prob. of defective calculator in second draw if first drawn calculator is
! *
defective, P(B/A) = =
" (.
∴ P(Both are defective) = P(A∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)
) *
= ×
%+ (.
= 0.022
3
b. Prob. of non defective calculator in first draw ,P(A) = 4
(#
=
%+
Prob. of non defective calculator in second draw if first drawn
! (&
calculator is non defective, P(B/A) = =
" (.
∴ P(Both are non defective) = P(A∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)
(# (&
= ×
%+ (.
= 0.70
Example
The probability that a manufacturer will produce ‘brand X’ product is
0.13, the probability that he will produce ‘brand Y’ product is 0.28 and
the probability that he will produce both brand is 0.06. What is the
probability that the manufacturer who has produced ‘brand Y’ will also
have produced ‘brand X’?
Solution: Let X and Y be the events that a manufacturer will produce
brand X and brand Y respectively.
P(X) = 0.13, P(Y) = 0.28, P (𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 0.06, 𝑃 𝑋/𝑌 =?
3 9∩: +.+$
P X/Y = = = 0.214
3 : +.#)
∴ The probability that the manufacturer who has produced ‘brand Y’
will also have produced ‘brand X’ is 0.214
Example
In a certain school, 20% students failed in English, 15% students failed
in Mathematics and 10% students failed in both English and
Mathematics. A student is selected at random. If he failed in English,
what is the probability that he also failed in Mathematics.
Solution:
Let E and M be the events that denote the students failed in English
and failed in Mathematics respectively. Then
P (E) = 20% = 0.2
P (M) = 15% = 0.15
P (E∩M) = 10% = 0.10
If one student is selected at random, the Probability that if he failed in
English then he also failed in Mathematics is given by
< =∩> +.&+ &
P (M/E) = = =
< > +.# #
Example
In a group of equal number of men and women, 75 % men and 60%
women are employed. A person is selected at random and found to be
unemployed. What is the probability that selected person is (i) men
(ii) women?
Solution:
Since, the number of men and women are equal and their
employment percentage is given. Therefore, the given information can
be presented in the following tabular form:

Nature Employed Unemployed Total

Sex
Men 75 25 100
Women 60 40 100
Total 135 65 200
Let U = an event of selecting unemployed
M = an event of selecting man
W = an event of selecting woman
(i) probability that the selected person is a man, given that (if) he is
unemployed is
3 ?∩@ 3(? A"B @) #%/#++ %
P M/U = = = =
3 @ 3 @ $%/#++ &'
(ii) probability that the selected person is a woman, given that (if) he
is unemployed is
3 D∩@ 3(D A"B @) (+/#++ )
P W/U = = = =
3 @ 3 @ $%/#++ &'
Example
The personnel department of a company has records which show the
following of its 120 engineers
Age (Years) Bachelor degree Master degree only Total
only (B.E.) (M.E.)
Under 25 60 8 68
25 to 30 7 26 33
over 30 9 10 19
Total 76 44 120

If one engineer is selected at random, find the probability that

(i) he has only a bachelor’s degree
(ii) he is under 25 years.
(iii) he has a master’s degree, given that he is over 30.
(iv) he is 25 to 30 years given that he has bachelor’s degree.
(v) he is over 30 and has a master’s degree.
Solution:
Total number of engineers = 120
Let , the event A = an engineer chosen is bachelor’s degree
B = an engineer chosen is Master's degree
C = an engineer chosen is under age 25 years
D = an engineer chosen is 25 to 30 years
E = an engineer chosen is over 30 years
If one engineer is selected at random, then
P(A) = Probability that he has only a bachelor’s degree
*$ &.
= =
&#+ '+
P (B) = Probability that he is under 25 years.
$) &*
= =
&#+ '+
P (B/E) = Probability that he has a master’s degree, given that he is
over 30.
3 7∩E 3 7 A"B E &+/&#+ &+
= = = =
3 E 3 E &./&#+ &.
P (D/A) = Probability that he is 25 to 30years, given that he has a
bachelor’s degree.
3 F∩5 3 F A"B 5 */&#+ *
= = = =
3 5 3 5 *$/&#+ *$
P (E∩B) = P (E and B) = Probability that he is over 30 and has a
master’s degree
&+ &
= =
&#+ &#
Example
In a survey of 1000 customers about the quality and timely deliverance
of “The Momo world” Marked by a company following information
prevailed

Timely deliverance
Quality Yes No Total
satisfaction Yes 500 225 725
No 200 75 275
Total 700 300 1000
(a) What is the probability that a customer satisfied with quality but
timely not delivered?
(b) What is the probability that a customer timely delivered but not
satisfied with quality?
(c) What is the probability that a customer timely delivered and
satisfied with quality?
Solution:
Let A = event that the customers satisfied with quality.
9 = event that the customers not satisfied with quality
A
B = event that the customers with timely deliverance
9 = event that the customers with timely not delivered
B
a. The probability that a customer satisfied with quality but timely not
delivered is given by
3 5∩7G G
3 5 A"B 7 ##%/&+++ ##%
9
P (A/B) = = = = = 0.75
G
3 7 G
3 7 '++/&+++ '++
b. The probability that a customer timely delivered but not satisfied
with quality is given by
G ∩7 G A"B 7
9) = 3
P (B/A
5
=
3 5
=
#++/&+++
=
#++
= 0.7273
3 5 3 5 #*%/&+++ #*%
c. The probability that a customer timely delivered and satisfied with
quality is given by
%+++
P (A∩B) = P (A and B) = = 0.5
&+++
Bayes's Theorem (Rule for the Inverse Probability)
Statement: Let E& , E# , E' , . . . . . . . . . . . , E" be n mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events with non zero probabilities of a random experiment. If A
be any arbitrary event of the given sample space of the above experiment
with P A > 0 , then the probability that it is was preceded by the
particular event EH i = 1,2,3, . . . . . . . . , n is given by
3 E7 3 5/E7
P EH /A = ∑3 U
789 3 E7 3 5/E7
𝐸" 𝐸# 𝐸% . . . . . 𝐸$

Where, P(E1), P(E2) ...., P(En) which are already known before conducting an
experiment is termed as priori probabilities. The conditional probabilities P
(E1/A), P (E2/A),. . . . . .,P (En/A) which are computed after conducting the
experiment are termed as posteriori probabilities
Example
Assuming that a factory has two machines M& and M# Past record
showed that machine M& produces 30% of the items of output and
machine M# produces 70% of the items. Further, 5% and 1% of the
items produced by machine M& and M# respectively were defective. If
a defective item is selected at random what is the probability that it
was produced by machine M# ?
Solution: Let E& and E# be the events of producing items of output by
machines M& and M# respectively.
P E& = 0.30
P E# = 0.70
Let A be the event of producing defective item. Then,
P A/E& = 0.05
P A/E# = 0.01
P E# /A = ?
By Bayes’s theorem
3 E: 3 5/E:
P E# /A =
3 E9 3 5/E9 23 E: 3 5/E:
+.+*×+.+&
= = 0.318
+.'+×+.+%2+.*+×+.+&
∴ The required probability that the defective item was produced by
machine M# is 0.318
OR
Alternative method
Tree Diagram
Events Probability
A
0.05
𝐸" ∩ 𝐴 0.3×0.05 = 0.015

𝐸"
0.3
0.01 A 𝐸# ∩ 𝐴 0.7×0.01 =0.007
0.7
𝐸#

Total P (A) = 0.022

From the above tree diagram, the required probability that the
defective item was produced by machine M# is given by
3 E: 3 5/E: +.++*
∴ P E# /A = = = 0.318
3 5 +.+##
Example
A company buys tyres from two suppliers, 1 and 2. Supplier 1 has a
record of delivering tyres containing 10% of the defectives, where as
supplier 2 has a defective rate of only 5%. Suppose 40% of the current
supply came from supplier 1. If a tyre is taken from this supply and
observed to defective, find the probability that it is from a supplier 1.
Solution:
Let E& and E# be the events of delivering tyres from suppliers 1 and 2
respectively.
P E& = 0.40
P E# = 1-0.40= 0.60
Let A be the event of delivering defective tyres. Then,
P A/E& = 0.10
P A/E# = 0.05
P E& /A = ?
By Bayes’s theorem
3 E9 3 5/E9
P E& /A =
3 E9 3 5/E9 23 E: 3 5/E:
+.(×+.&+
=
+.(+×+.&+2+.$+×+.+%
= 0.571429
∴ The required probability that the defective tyre is from a supplier 1 is
0.571429
OR
Alternative method
Tree diagram
Events Probability
A
0.10
𝐸" ∩ 𝐴 0.4×0.10 = 0.04

𝐸"
0.4
0.05 A 𝐸# ∩ 𝐴 0.6×0.05 = 0.03
0.6
𝐸#
Total P (A) = 0.07
From the above tree diagram, the required probability that the
defective tyre is from a supplier 1 is given by
3 E9 3 5/E9 +.+(
P E& /A = = = 0.57142
3 5 +.+*
Example
There are three machines A, B and C producing 1000, 2000 and 3000
articles per hour respectively. These machines are known to be
producing 1%, 2% and 3% defectives respectively. One article is
selected at random from an hour production of three machines and
found to be defective. What is the probability that the article is
produced from machine C?
Solution: Let E&, E# and E' be the events of selecting machines A, B
and C respectively. Then,
&+++ &
P E& = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
#+++ #
P E# = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
'+++ '
P E' = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
Let A be the event that the defective articles produced by three
machines. Then,
P A/E& = 0.01
P A/E# = 0.02
P A/E' = 0.03
P E' /A = ?
By Bayes’s theorem, the required probability is given by
3 E; 3 5/E;
P E' /A =
3 E9 3 5/E9 23 E: 3 5/E: 23 E; 3 5/E;
;
×+.+'
= 9
<
: ; = 0.643
<
×+.+&2<
×+.+#2<
×+.+'
;
<
×+.+'
= = 0.643
+.+#''
∴ The probability that the defective article is produced from machine C
is 0.643
Example
There are three machines A, B and C producing 1000, 2000 and 3000
articles per hour respectively. These machines are known to be
producing 10, 40 and 90 defectives items respectively. One article is
selected at random from an hour production of three machines and
found to be defective. What is the probability that the article is
produced from machine (i) machine A (ii) machine B (iii) machine C?
Solution: Let E&, E# and E' be the events of selecting machines A, B
and C respectively. Then
&+++ &
P E& = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
#+++ #
P E# = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
'+++ '
P E' = =
&+++2#+++2'+++ $
Let A be the event that the defective articles produced by three
machines. Then,
&+
P A/E& = = 0.01
&+++
(+
P A/E# = = 0.02
#+++
.+
P A/E' = =0.03
'+++
P E& /A = ? P E' /A = ?, P E' /A = ?
The probability that the machines produce defective articles is
P A = P E& P A/E& + P E# P A/E# + P E' P A/E'
& # '
= ×0.01 + ×0.02 + ×0.03 = 0.0233
$ $ $
By Bayes’s theorem, the required probabilities that the defective
articles are produced from machines A, B and C respectively are given
by
9
3 E9 3 5/E9 ×+.+&
P E& /A = = <
= 0.0715
3(5) +.+#''
:
3 E: 3 5/E: <
×+.+#
P E# /A = = = 0.286
3(5) +.+#''
;
3 E; 3 5/E; ×+.+'
<
P E' /A = = = 0.643
3 5 +.+#''
OR
Alternative method

Tree Diagram
Events Probability

A 𝐸" ∩ 𝐴 1/6×0.01 = 0.00166

0.01
Type 2/6×0.02 = 0.0067
𝐸#equation
∩𝐴 here.

𝐸" A
1/6 0.02
2/6
𝐸# 3/6×0.03 = 0.015
3/6 𝐸% ∩ 𝐴
0.03 A
𝐸%

Total P (A) = 0.0233

From the above tree diagram, the required probabilities that the
defective items were produced by machine A, B and C respectively are
given by
3 E9 3 5/E9 +.++&$$
P E& /A = = = 0.0715
3(5) +.+#''
3 E: 3 5/E: +.++$*
P E# /A = = = 0.286
3(5) +.+#''
3 E; 3 5/E; +.+&%
P E' /A = = = 0.643
3 5 +.+#''
Example
The chances of X, Y and Z becoming manager will be of a certain
company are 4:2:3. The probabilities that bonus scheme will be
introduced if X, Y and Z become manager are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.8
respectively.
(i) What is the probability that bonus scheme will be introduced?
(ii) If the bonus scheme has been introduced, what is the probability
that X is appointed as the manager?
Solution: Let E&, E# and E' be the events of X, Y and Z becoming
managers respectively. Then
Total ratio = 4+2+3 = 9
(
P E& =
.
#
P E# =
.
'
P E' =
.
Let A be the event of introducing bonus scheme. Then,
P A/E& = 0.3
P A/E# = 0.5
P A/E' = 0.8
P E& /A = ? P E' /A = ?, P E' /A = ?
(i) The probability that the bonus scheme will be introduced is given by
P A = P E& P A/E& + P E# P A/E# + P E' P A/E'
( # '
= ×0.3 + ×0.5 + ×0.8 = 0.511
. . .
(ii) By Bayes’s theorem,
If bonus scheme has been introduced, then the probability that X is
appointed as the manager is given by
3 E9 3 5/E9
P E& /A =
3(5)
=
×+.'
= >
= 0.261
+.%&&
 Example
In a certain factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 60 %, 25% and
15% products respectively. Of the total of their output 1%, 2% and 2%
are defective products. A product is drawn at random from the total
production and found to be defective
(i) What is the probability of getting defective product?
(ii) From which machine the defective product is expected to have
been manufactured?
Solution: Let E&, E# and E' be the events of selecting machines A, B
and C respectively. Then
P E& = 0.60
P E# = 0.25
P E' = 0.15
Let A be the event that the defective productive manufactured by
three machines. Then,
P A/E& = 0.01
P A/E# = 0.02
P A/E' =0.02
(i) The probability of getting defective productive, P A = ?
The probability of getting defective productive is given by
P A = P E& P A/E& + P E# P A/E# + P E' P A/E'
= 0.60×0.01 + 0.25×0.02 + 0.15×0.02 = 0.014
(ii) P E& /A = ? P E' /A = ?, P E' /A = ?
By Bayes’s theorem, the required probabilities that the defective
products are produced from machines A, B and C respectively are
given by
3 E9 3 5/E9 +.$+×+.+&
P E& /A = = = 0.428571
3(5) +.+&(
3 E: 3 5/E: +.#%×+.+#
P E# /A = = =0.357143
3(5) +.+&(
3 E; 3 5/E; +.&%×+.+#
P E' /A = = = 0.214286
3 5 +.+&(
E9
Since, P > 0.357143>0.214286, therefore machine A
5
manufactured more defective products than machines B and C.
Mathematical Expectation (Expected Value of a Random
Variable).
The mathematical expectation of X, usually called the expected value
of X and denoted by E X , is defined as:
E X = ∑x p
Physical interpretation of 𝑬 𝑿 :

X x& x* x' x( ... x5 ... x4

f f& f* f' f( ... f5 ... f4

∑ )*
1
X = +
 ∑ c9 c9 e9 2c: e: 2c; e; 2 . . . . . .2c3 e3
9
X = =
d d
c9 c: c; c3 c7
= x& + x# + x' + . . . . . . . + x" Where PH = P(X= xH ) =
d d d d d
= p& x& + p# x# + p' x' +. . . . . . . +p" x"
= ∑ PX
⇒ X9 = E X = ∑ PX
Hence, mathematical expectation of a random variable X is nothing but
it is arithmetic mean or average of random variable in the case of
probability distribution.
Variance and standard deviation discrete random
variable
If X is a discrete random variable, then variance of X is
denoted by 𝜎, ' or V 𝑋 and is given by
σ* ' = V X = E X ' − E X '
⇒Standard deviation = 𝜎, = E X' − E X '

Where E X ' = ∑ x ' p

E X = ∑x p
Example
Find the expected sales of Toyota car in Kathmandu city in a week from
the following information
Days Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Sales 9o 60 90 50 75 55
Probability 0.25 0.18 0.12 0.05 0.25 0.25
Solution:
Days Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Sales (X= x) 9o 60 90 50 75 55
Probability P = P x 0.25 0.18 0.12 0.05 0.25 0.25

The expected sales of Toyota car in Kathmandu city in a week is given

by
E X = ∑x p
= 90×0.25 + 60×0.18+90×0.12+50×0.05+75×0.25+55×0.25
= 72.5
Example
The following table presents a discrete probability distribution
associated with the daily demand for a product.
Number of Demanded per day (X) 10 20 30 40 50 Total
Probability P x 0.08 0.24 0.28 0.30 0.10 1

(i) Determine the mean daily demand.

(ii) What is the standard deviation of daily demand?
Solution:
(i) The mean (i.e. expected) daily demand is given by
E X = ∑x p x
= 10×0.08 + 20×0.24+30×0.28+40×0.30+50×0.10
= 31
(ii) The standard deviation of daily demand is given by
𝜎f = E X# − E X # . . . . . . . . (i)
where
E X# = ∑ x# p x
=10# ×0.08 + 20# ×0.24 + 30# ×0.28 + 40# ×0.30 + 50# ×0.10
=1086
From (i)
σ9 = E X# − E X #

= 1086 − 31# = 1086 − 961 = 125 = 11.18